Stocks Substantially Lower into Final Hour on Global Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Oil Decline, Financial/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume:  Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.6 +9.5%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,168.0 -268.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 132.22 +.31%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 +4.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.4 +8.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 113.0  -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .83 -7.8%

• NYSE Arms .97 -14.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.71 +2.0%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 430.50 +1.8%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.0 +1.5%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.0 +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.1 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 205.25 +3.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.12 +.05%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.5 -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.25 unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.25 +9.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 53.41 +4.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .04% +1.0 basis point
  

• Yield Curve 76.25 -3.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.5 USD/Metric Tonne +4.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.5 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.1 -.7 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.7 +3.0 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +1.0 basis point
• 50.8%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th meeting, 36.2%(+.2 percentage point) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 282 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +19/100K people
• 53% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +4.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +327 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +51 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs and emerging market shorts

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  

• Market Exposure:  50% Net Long