Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Diminished US Virus Mandate/Lockdown Fears, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line:  Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance:  Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Light

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -3.1%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,033.0 +186.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.70 +.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.0 +.09%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 29.4 -5.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 119.0  -30.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .78 -3.7%

• NYSE Arms .80 -22.3%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.97 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 397.69 -2.1%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.08 -2.2%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 +2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.0 -1.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.20 -.88%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 33.05 -.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 24.0 -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 15.75 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.75 -2.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 55.62 +1.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .06% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 79.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.25 USD/Metric Tonne +4.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.9 -4.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.5 +3.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.4 +1.9 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.50 +1.0 basis point
• 43.5%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of no change at March 16th FOMC meeting, 30.0%(-2.5 percentage points) chance of no change at May 4th meeting

US Covid-19:

• 352 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total) +24/100K people
• 66% of Jan. 7th, 2021 peak(highest daily avg. new infections) +4.0 percentage points
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +25 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -15 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/medical/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  100% Net Long