Thursday, September 21, 2023

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
Newsmax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Twitter:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 129.0 +6.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 81.0 +4.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.4 +1.5%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 26.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 +.08%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.65%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Rising Long-Term Rates, Auto Strike/Govt Shutdown Worries, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.0 +5.6%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .56%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.2 -.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.12 -.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.38 +.72%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.1 +3.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -16.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .96 -10.3%
  • NYSE Arms .95 -22.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.21 +1.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 315.13 +3.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 327.0 -2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.8 +3.7% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 291.20 +3.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.1 +3.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 215.98 +.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.96 -.4%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.75 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 909.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 79.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.1 -.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 118.1 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.1 euros/megawatt-hour +4.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.9 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -50.0 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.2 +.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +8.4% +2.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.47 +.06:  Growth Rate +8.9% unch., P/E 18.2 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.59 +.14: Growth Rate +58.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.0 -1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .41 -5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .23 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -67.5 basis points (2s/10s) +10.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 54.8%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 53.7%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -400 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +97 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -3.2% 2) Gambling -3.1% 3) Electric Vehicles -2.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OTEX, DE, ELF, VMC, TOL, LVS, BLD, IOT, NVO, PLTR, CSCO, RJF, TECK, PSTG, BN, SGML, FWONK, SQ, BLDR, RH, LTHM, VNO, EDR, SE, WOLF, EDR, CELH, BHF, CRL, AFRM, ZIP, WPC and TKO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ENB 2) RDFN 3) NVO 4) DM 5) VNO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) ARM 2) VFS 3) EVA 4) NIO 5) BHF
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers +.7% 2) Utilities -.2% 3) Shipping -.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SPLK, MRTX, CNK, MLYS, FDX, VLO and SAVE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LTHM 2) FDX 3) ARM 4) OPEN 5) DUK
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) IVP 2) FDX 3) SPLK 4) RAVE 5) PR

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases  

9:45 am EST

  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 48.2 versus 47.9 in Aug.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 50.7 versus 50.5 in Aug.
  • The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 50.4 versus 50.2 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -1.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 -1.9
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 15.8% of Issues Advancing, 82.3% Declining
  • 8 New 52-Week Highs, 146 New Lows
  • 39.2%(-5.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -13.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.1 -.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,241.9 -.53%
  • 1-Day Vix 10.9 -21.0%
  • Vix 16.4 +8.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 -3.7%
  • TRIN/Arms .85 -31.0%

Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.0 +.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 76.75 +2.75 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 121.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.44%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.4 +.04%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 47.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Less Dovish Fed Commentary, US Govt Shutdown Worries, US Auto Strike Concerns, Tech/Electric Vehicle Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.2 +.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .45%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.9 -1.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.1 +.23%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.34 -.24%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.5 +1.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +28.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .92 +1.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.15 +19.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.4 +8.3% (new series)
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 306.4 -1.27%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 329.0 -8
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.63 +7.3% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 280.2 +6.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.2 +4.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 211.08 +5.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.08 +.02%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.75 basis points +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.5 basis points -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 166.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 908.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 78.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 +.23%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.2 -.3 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.2 +6.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 11.9 -.7 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +6.1% -1.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.41 +.01:  Growth Rate +8.9% unch., P/E 18.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.13% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.45 +.24: Growth Rate +58.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.1 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .48 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .28 -6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -78.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.86% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.95% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 56.9%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 54.5%(-4.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +56 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/transport/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles -.6% 2) Energy -.3% 3) Software -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ZIP, ZGN, XMTR, WMG, CHWY, HDB, ZBRA, CELH, AKRO, BGNE and EBC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BXMT 2) SLG 3) VLY 4) ARM 5) KBH
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHWY 2) IBB 3) MASI 4) CLX 5) HE
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services +2.6% 2) Gold & Silver +1.8% 3) Road & Rail +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SCS, HAIN, GCT, DOMO, GT, BBW, GSHD, WDC, COTY, SLVM, TXT, IFF, SBRA, SWBI, JBI, PINS, EBIX, VSTO, BALL, IBM, CDLX and MIRM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) APO 2) ARM 3) GT 4) CWH 5) GLD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SCS 2) CATC 3) COTY 4) SLVM 5) WDC