Saturday, December 30, 2023

Today's Headlines

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SKirsch.com:

Friday, December 29, 2023

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:

CNBC:

Reuters:

MarketWatch.com:

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

Epoch Times:

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,773.9 +.53%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 37,564.0 +.73%
  • NASDAQ 15,033.2 +.44%
  • Russell 2000 2,037.12 +.90%
  • NYSE FANG+ 8,735.07 -.28% 
  • Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 437.17 -.87%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 162.2 +.68%
  • Wilshire 5000 47,865.9 +.58%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,055.94 +.21%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,631.37 +.92%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 762.14 +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.3 -.61%
  • NYSE Technology 4,332.4 +.54%
  • Transports 15,910.7 -.55%
  • Utilities 879.1 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.29 +.87%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 40.24 +2.0%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 194.09 +.57%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 107.55 +.66%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 478,119 +1.04%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 +27.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 910 +651
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -24.1 -15.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 182,743 +20.5%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,579,670 -4.3%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +4.6%
  • OEX Put/Call .90 -17.4%
  • ISE Sentiment 133.0 -1.0 point
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 +137.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.1 +1.1%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .36 +63.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.44 -7.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .71 -16.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 19.0 -5.6%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.11 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.10 +3.6%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,373.8 +.58%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  102.7 +5.4
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.886 Trillion +.28%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.630 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 46.3 -12.5%
  • AAII % Bears 25.1 +20.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0(Extreme Greed) -2.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 266.38 +.11%
  • Crude Oil 71.53/bbl. -3.11%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 210.3 -3.9%
  • Natural Gas 2.50 -2.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour -4.8%
  • Heating Oil 255.31 -6.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 137.0 (1,000/metric ton) -3.0%
  • Gold 2,066.54 +.67%
  • Silver 23.84 -1.5%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 423.9 +2.4%
  • Copper 389.20 -.93%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 421.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.47%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 140.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • CME Lumber  543.5 -3.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,509.3 -.23%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 322.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 4Q Forecast +2.26% -42.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.92 +54.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 236.9 +33.9%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.14 +.39:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.93 +1.0: Growth Rate +35.5% +.5 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.2 -10.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -41.0 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.9 -3.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 16.5%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 83.5%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 1/31
  • US Dollar Index 101.33 -.41%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,739.70 +.89%
  • Bitcoin/USD 42,106.9 -3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.33 -.63%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -37.25 +5.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.88% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.676 Trillion -.2% 
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.507 Billion +14.7%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $135.805 Billion +3.4%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.4 -.95%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 171.0 +.69%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 168.0 +10.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.61 +.54%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.57 -1.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.3 -.65%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 111.6 +1.5%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.76 unch.
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.06 +.17%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 79.62 +.98%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.1% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% -.1 percentage point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17% -3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 26.0 -1.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.5 +3.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 +7.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.5 +1.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 163.0 -.71
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 250.0 -69.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.58 -.80%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.31 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 166.53 -.18%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 965.0+2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .76 -3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.0% +30.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,270.5B +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,000 unch.
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.1 unch.
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.95% -11.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 191,600 unch.
  • Weekly Retail Sales +3.50% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +3.0% +5.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $117.4M unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $3.12/gallon -.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,094.0 -10.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 909.2 +3.4%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 35.0 +7.7%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 34.0 -5.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 255,841 -4.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,626,371 +.76%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Biotech +4.5%
  • Electric Vehicles +3.0%
  • Foods +1.8%
  • Semis +1.7%
  • Computer Services +1.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Energy -1.0%
  • Oil Service -1.3%
  • Social Media -1.4%
  • Education -1.9%
  • Shipping -3.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (6)
  • GRFS, INBX, SATS, GCT, CYTK and ALRM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)
  • GEO, UPST, PLL, RIOT, AAOI, MARA and CLSK
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +13.5% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 243.14 +.07:  Growth Rate +11.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.7 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.04% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 288.93 +.16: Growth Rate +35.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.4 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .36 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -40.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.26% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 67.8% -1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.32% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 74.2%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 72.8%(+2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -179 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +14 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/transport sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

  • The Final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for Dec.

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Nov. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.6% gain in Oct.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US weekly retail sales reports and the Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow update could also impact global trading on Tuesday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -22.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +.6
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 26.8% of Issues Advancing, 70.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.01 +27.9% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$138.7M
  • 76 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
  • 66.3%(-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.0 +.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.4 -.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,328.7 -.19%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (Extreme Greed) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.3 +.1%
  • Vix 12.8 +3.0%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -4.3%