Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.0 - basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.5 - basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.2 +1.5%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 -7.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.4 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.66%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by tech and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Cooling AI Stock Frenzy, Global Growth Worries, Energy/Regional Bank Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .65%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.0 -5.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 156.0 -.91%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 +9.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.6 +2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -37.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .95 +8.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.58 +28.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.9 +.63%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 400.24 +2.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376.0 -23.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 93.0 +2.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 316.7 +1.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 180.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 123.1 +2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 245.36 -.09%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.7 +.24%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 7.25 basis points -13.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 +1.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 178.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 90.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.3 -.64%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +12.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.9 euros/megawatt-hour  +6.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.7 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.9 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.6 +2.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(489 of 500 reporting) -3.6% -.6 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.74 +.07:  Growth Rate +2.8% unch., P/E 18.2 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.26% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 205.35 +.02: Growth Rate +34.9% unch., P/E 34.9 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.02 +8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.85 -14.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -76.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.90% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.19 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 49.8%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 40.1%(+11.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -170 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +62 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my medical/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades:  None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives -3.5% 2) Oil Service -3.2% 3) Regional Banks -3.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AA, GLNG, BP, TOST, ABG, NVDA, KSS, ASAI, TPX, VIPS, AMD, E, MOD, STRL, ANET, BKE, PDD, M, F, DELL, TIMB, NVST, EL, MU, DAVA, HPQ, VRT, BWA, UPST, SMCI, WB, GPC, VSCO, BILI, IRTC, JWN, FRO, CVNA, MRVL, PUK, FRPT, HPE, HIBB, YY, LGF/A, DCI, VICR, HPK, AI, CPRI, HRZN, ASLE, SYM, UHAL, AMBA and AAP
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FEZ 2) AAP 3) VGK 4) AMBA 5) OKTA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AAP 2) AI 3) UHAL 4) HPE 5) KEY  
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Gold & Silver +1.9% 2) Utilities +1.0% 3) Cyber Security +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TWLO, INTC, PATH, EXTR, CAR and DRVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ARMK 2) AAP 3) PEP 4) CRDO 5) TIP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SOFI 2) LL 3) TWLO 4) SCTH 5) PLMR

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CONN)/-1.33
  • (DG)/2.38
  • (HRL)/.39
  • (M)/.45
  • (SPTN)/.59
After the Close: 
  • (AVGO)/10.12
  • (CHPT)/-.19
  • (COO)/3.03
  • (DELL)/.86
  • (FIVE)/.63
  • (LULU)/1.96
  • (MDB)/.18
  • (PD)/.09
  • (S)/-.17
  • (VMW)/1.55
  • (ZS)/.42
  • (ZUMZ)/-.86

Economic Releases 

7:30 am EST

  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for May.
8:15 am EST
  • ADP Employment Change for May is estimated to fall to 170K versus 296K in April.
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 235K versus 229K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1800K versus 1794K the prior week.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  • ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to fall to 47.0 versus 47.1 in April.
  • ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 52.3 versus 53.2 in April.
11:00 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,349,570 barrels versus a -12,456,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -832,710 barrels versus a -2,053,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +705,140 barrels versus a -561,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.64% versus a -.3% decline prior.
Afternoon 
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to fall to 15.3M versus 15.91M in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Harker speaking, Eurozone Retail Sales report and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running +1.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.3 +.3
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sector Rising
  • 30.4% of Issues Advancing, 66.7% Declining
  • 8 New 52-Week Highs, 77 New Lows
  • 37.5%(-5.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 34.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 53.8 -5.7%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,394.7 +.07%
  • 1-Day Vix 11.6 -14.7%
  • Vix 18.2 +4.2% 
  • Total Put/Call .99 +12.5%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.56 +26.8%

Tuesday, May 30, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC.com:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
 The Epoch Times:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.0 -1.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.5 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.4 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.5 -.17%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.7 -.4%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .06 +15.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by tech and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.