Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 69.5 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.7 +.04%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.2 +1.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.18%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.38%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Stagflationary US Economic Data, Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, Transport/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.2 +3.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.01 +245.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.7 -.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.4 +.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 +.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.6 +4.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -3.0
  • Total Put/Call .92 -1.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 unch.
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$410.3M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 +2.6%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 259.9 +1.2%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 285 +3
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.5 +1.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.0 +.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.2 -2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 175.7 +2.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 133.2 -1.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 773.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.29%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.6 -6.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.9 +14.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.1 -7.5 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(266 of 500 reporting) +3.6% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 253.68 -.02:  Growth Rate +13.7% unch., P/E 20.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +42.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 319.16 +.25: Growth Rate +32.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.9 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 +10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -35.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.9% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 90.1%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 75.2%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -155 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +154 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -3.3% 2) Oil Service -3.0% 3) Energy -2.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SAIA, BAM, SANM, NSC, URI, SUI, LHIH, ALCC, GPK, HOLI, CCJ, FIHL, SBAC, IT, PCAR, LSCC, MPC, FFIV, LEA, YUMC, BBVA, APLS, MAC, TAP, HUBB, STLA, GEHC, COUR, ARCB, CECO, HEES and MED
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MP 2) SPCE 3) BKLN 4) GEHC 5) GLW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CHGG 2) MED 3) MSTR 4) VNCE 5) ARCB
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) SMH 3) XBI 4) KRE 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Pharma +1.4% 2) Shipping +.4% 3) Insurance +.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • TREE, CGC, ATI, HLIT, THC, ANAB, HRMY, MAX, WWD, ST, EAT, QNST, PRFT, SMPL, TT, LLY, GLW, TKR, DAWN, DJT, CVLT, GGAL, SNAP, HSBC, OMF, FWRG, BMA, NXPI, LDOS, ZBRA, IMNM and AMKR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AMBP 2) FOXA 3) FTI 4) AER 5) JCI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LLY 2) ATI 3) NXPI 4) WGS 5) WWD
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) VGT 2) XLU 3) COPX 4) XITK 5) XLF
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (APA)/.92
  • (ADP)/2.79
  • (CDW)/2.15
  • (CRS)/.94
  • (CVS)/1.69 
  • (DD)/.65
  • (EL)/.50
  • (GRMN)/1.01
  • (GNRC)/.76
  • (IDXX)/2.70
  • (JCI)/1.13
  • (KHC)/.69
  • (MAR)/2.16
  • (MA)/3.25
  • (PFE)/.53
  • (RGEN)/.30
  • (SMG)/3.44
  • (WING)/.77
  • (YUM)/1.20
After the Close: 
  • (AFL)/1.58
  • (ALB)/.25
  • (ALL)/3.93
  • (AIG)/1.66
  • (CAR)/-2.40
  • (BZH)/.91
  • (CHRW)/.63
  • (CVNA)/-.67
  • (CF)/1.53
  • (DVN)/1.12
  • (DASH)/-.03
  • (EBAY)/1.20
  • (FSLR)/2.00
  • (FLEX)/.55
  • (HLF)/.38
  • (KLIC)/.24
  • (MRO)/.54 
  • (MET)/1.84
  • (MGM)/.56
  • (MOS)/.66
  • (MYRG)/1.16
  • (PPC)/.69
  • (QCOM)/2.32
  • (SFM)/1.00
  • (SUM)/-.21
  • (VMI)/3.31
  • (ZG)/.30
  • (PTEN)/.12
Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

  • The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to fall to 180K versus 184K in March.

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in Feb.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for March is estimated to fall to 8690K versus 8756K in Feb.
  • ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 50.0 versus 50.3 in March.
  • ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to fall to 55.4 versus 55.8 in March.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,018,000 barrels versus a -6,368,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,134,750 barrels versus a -634,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +354,500 barrels versus a +1,614,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.53% versus a +.4% gain prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 5.25-5.5%.

Afternoon

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for April is estimated to rise to 15.7M versus 15.49M in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (KO) annual meeting, (MGM) annual meeting, (CGNX) annual meeting, (UAL) investor day, (FLR) general meeting, (POOL) annual meeting, (WYNN) annual meeting, (WWW) annual meeting, (PEP) annual meeting, (GD) annual meeting, (MOH) annual meeting, (BC) annual meeting and the (FLEX) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -9.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 -2.3
  • 10 Sectors Declining, 1 Sector Rising
  • 20.6% of Issues Advancing, 77.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .92 -17.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$365.1M
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 54.3% (-2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 47.0 -5.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 67.3 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 142.5 -.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,922.4 +.19%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (Fear) -2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.9 +41.8%
  • Vix 15.3 +4.2%
  • Total Put/Call .88 -5.4%

Monday, April 29, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

The Epoch Times:

X:
  • @NickSortor
  • @OCanonist
  • @_aussie17
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 111.5 -4.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 68.75 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 +.09%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.2 +3.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.2 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Biotech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -1.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .29 -59.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.6 -1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.2 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.0 -5.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +5.0
  • Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 +1.6%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$150.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.1 +.07%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 255.4 -.81%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 282 +7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 -.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.0 -.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.5 -2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 172.2 -1.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 135.4 +.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 +.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 770.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.5 -16.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.6 +2.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(232 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +1.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 253.70 +.88:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.87% +3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +42.4% -20.1 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.91 +3.30: Growth Rate +32.7% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 31.2 +1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .85 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -35.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.9% +120.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% -1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 88.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 70.1%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +335 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long