Monday, April 29, 2024

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Biotech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -1.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .29 -59.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.6 -1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.2 -1.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.0 -5.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +5.0
  • Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 +1.6%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$150.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.1 +.07%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 255.4 -.81%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 282 +7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 -.8%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.0 -.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 132.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.5 -2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 172.2 -1.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 135.4 +.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 +.12%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 770.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.39% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 117.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.34%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.0 euros/megawatt-hour -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.5 -16.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.6 +2.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(232 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +1.9 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 253.70 +.88:  Growth Rate +13.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.87% +3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +42.4% -20.1 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.91 +3.30: Growth Rate +32.7% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 31.2 +1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.04 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .85 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -35.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.9% +120.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% -1.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.49% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 88.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 70.1%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +335 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Software -.7% 2) Road & Rail -.6% 3) Internet -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • DLTR, UMBF, BEN, MOR, MBLY and DB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AES 2) ANVS 3) EH 4) CYH 5) AVTR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MJNA 2) LULU 3) DKNG 4) SHCR 5) MTCH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLY 2) PAVE 3) XRT 4) XBI 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles +3.4% 2) Biotech +2.2% 3) Digital Health +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • DCPH, PHG, SLNO, HTLF, JANX, TSLA, DJT, PTCT, NEO, CGEM, ALCC, IGMS, DAWN, ARLP, FULT, CSIQ, LI, ALB, ANAB, WNS, XPER, DPZ, IE, BIDU, STTK, MYGN, DGX, NGVT, XENE, ELVN, PI, GL, JKS, MEOH, TMDX, IP, AU, BEKE, BMA, ON, ROKU, BIIB, LH, CELC, FCX and AAPL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PBR/A 2) IBRX 3) MLCO 4) DNA 5) CIFR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) DPZ 2) ALTM 3) SDA 4) SCPX 5) DGX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) XLK 5) ITB
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MMM)/2.10
  • (APD)/2.70
  • (AEP)/1.25
  • (AMT)/2.57
  • (ADM)/1.37
  • (AWI)/1.23
  • (EAT)/1.15
  • (KO)/.70
  • (GLW)/.35
  • (ETN)/2.29
  • (LLY)/2.47
  • (FSS)/.56
  • (IT)/2.53
  • (ITW)/2.36
  • (LEA)/3.01
  • (MCD)/2.72
  • (PCAR)/2.20
  • (PYPL)/1.22
  • (PAG)/3.37
  • (SYY)/.95
  • (THC)/1.45
  • (TT)/1.65
After the Close: 
  • (AMD)/.62
  • (AMZN)/.84
  • (BXP)/1.73
  • (CHK)/.59
  • (CLX)/1.36
  • (FANG)/4.45
  • (MDLZ)/.89
  • (PRU)/3.14
  • (PSA)/4.09
  • (SBUX)/.80
  • (SYK)/2.36
  • (SMCI)/5.74
  • (WERN)/.27
  • (KBR)/.70
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Employment Cost Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +.9% gain in 4Q.

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in Jan.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Feb. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.14% gain in Jan.

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 41.4 in March.

10:00 am EST

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April is estimated to fall to 104.0 versus 104.7 in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US weekly retail sales reports, Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for April, API weekly crude oil stock report, (AXP) investor day, (IBM) annual meeting, (X) general meeting, (WMB) annual meeting, (WFC) annual meeting, (PLNT) general meeting and the (C) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -15.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +1.5
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 71.0% of Issues Advancing, 26.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.27 -.78%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$175.3M
  • 62 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
  • 56.4% (+2.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.0 +3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.0 -1.3%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 143.1 -.17%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,872.8 -.43%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (Fear) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.8 -21.7%
  • Vix 14.8 -1.7%
  • Total Put/Call .85 -15.0%

Sunday, April 28, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Zero Hedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (ALB) and (BRK/A).
CNBC:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @TuckerCarlson
  • @GlennBeck
  • @ConceptualJames
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @kylenabecker
  • @TheRabbitHole84
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @wideawake_media
  • @VigilantNews
  • @CitizenFreePress  
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @ImMeme0
  • @PierreKory
  • @VigilantFox
  • @ColinRugg
  • @diedsuddenly
  • @stillgray
  • "We want to smash the Democratic Party. We want to smash the Republican party. We want to smash this whole goddam capitalist, imperialist empire." This is a communist revolution. (video)
  • @thestustustudio
  • @ANTIWEF
  • @guybenson
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 116.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 116.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.92%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.34 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.0 +.05%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.4 +.02%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.