Friday, April 30, 2021

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 4,184.50 +.02%*


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 33,864.8 -.49%
  • NASDAQ 13,979.11 -.30%
  • Russell 2000 2,265.99 -.21%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 72.99 +2.74%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 313.58 -.32%
  • Wilshire 5000 43,773.58 -.03%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,614.46 -.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,551.49 +.39%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 713.26 -.16%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,432.01 +1.3%
  • NYSE Technology 3,954.0 -.9%
  • Transports 15,351.5 +1.6%
  • Utilities 914.6 -.41%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 71.38 +5.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 53.96 -1.1%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,411.26 +.7%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 943.77 +.26%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 469,745 +.94%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,344 +746
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -39.9 +1.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 499,983 +1.5%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,346,793 +2.0%
  • Total Put/Call .92 +19.2%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.96 +23.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 95.0 -23.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +46.8
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,122.0 -74.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.6 +8.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.4 +2.8%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.3 unch.
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.5 -3.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,537.47 +1.97%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.470 Trillion +.35%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +.422 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 42.60 -19.2%
  • AAII % Bears 25.70 +25.4%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 199.82 +1.5%
  • Crude Oil 63.7 +2.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 207.32 +3.3%
  • Natural Gas 2.94 +7.9%
  • Heating Oil 192.40 +2.6%
  • Gold 1,770.0 -.5%
  • Silver 25.9 -.3%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 257.45 +4.1
  • Copper 447.7 +3.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 429.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.47%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 184.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.8%
  • Lumber 1,489.0 +8.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,241.13 -.03%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 320.0 USD/Short Ton +1.6%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +10.4% +2.1 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +23.9% -.4 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 12.3% +2.8%
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index +12.27 +3.9%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 165.23 +108.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 190.92 +2.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 -1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 164.7 +20.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.4 +10.4 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change, 12.0% chance of rate hike on 6/16
  • US Dollar Index 91.25 +.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,724.41 +.67%
  • Bitcoin/USD 56,773 +12.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.94 +.84%
  • Yield Curve 148.0 +7.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.63% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.741 Trillion -.52%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 10.2 -.2%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 143.84 -6.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 +7.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.26 -2.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 191.71 +.43%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.83 -2.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.8 -2.9%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 98.31 +1.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.21 -.27%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41% +7.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 17.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.4 -1.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 350.0 -3.8%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.51 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 166.70 +.94%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 60.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 71.75 +.25 basis point
  • M1 Money Supply $1.868 Trillion unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,215.0 -.3%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 611,750 -6.7%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 2.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.98% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 706,600 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 55.0 +.8 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +13.5% +10.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.90/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 3,007 +7.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,903.50 n/a
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 177.11 +.43%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 298,109 +.9%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value +.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -1.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Shipping +6.8%
  • Oil Service +5.0%
  • Energy +5.0%
  • Banks +3.6%
  • Homebuilding +2.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Medical Equipment -2.1%
  • Software -2.3%
  • Alt Energy -2.4%
  • Gold & Silver -3.7%
  • Education -5.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (11)
  • BTX, VXRT, NDLS, FIVN, OCGN, OSTK, CVA, CRI, OMF, BZH and SRCL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)
  • BFAM, RVMD, BCOV, AVIR, CARA, ATGE and RMD
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Earnings Disappointments, Less Dovish Fed Commentary, Oil Decline, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.8 +6.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,108.0 -207.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.92 -.48%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 51.8 +9.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -17.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .93 +32.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.32 +43.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.48 +.56%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 438.02 -.17%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.46 -.09%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.15 -.62%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.12 +.66%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.21 -.1%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 unch.
  • TED Spread 17.0 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  60.0 -2.75 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.81 -.57%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 148.0 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 179.64 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.0 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 164.7 +5.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 50.4 +7.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.41 -2.0 basis points
  • 92.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 92.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +51 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my industrial/energy/tech/medical sector longs sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -22.2% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 30.0% of Issues Advancing, 66.0% Declining
  • 140 New 52-Week Highs, 14 New Lows
  • 88.6% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,160.0 -159.0 points
  • Vix 18.4 +4.3%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +30.0%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.05 +14.1%

Thursday, April 29, 2021

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.25 -1.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.17 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,252.0 -66.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 +.7%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.02%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ABBV)/2.85
  • (ALXN)/3.29
  • (AON)/4.05
  • (AZN)/1.33
  • (B)/.31
  • (CBOE)/1.32
  • (CHTR)/4.44
  • (CVX)/.85
  • (CLX)/1.45
  • (CL)/.79
  • (XOM)/.53
  • (GT)/.11
  • (ITW)/1.87
  • (JCI)/.48
  • (LHX)/2.99
  • (LYB)/2.60
  • (NWL)/.13
  • (PSX)/-.28
  • (PBI)/.05 
  • (WY)/.84
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The 1Q Employment Cost Index is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in 4Q.
  • Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +20.0% versus a -7.1% decline in Feb.
  • Personal Spending for March is estimated to rise +4.2% versus a -1.0% decline in Feb.
  • The PCE Core MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 65.0 versus 66.3 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated to rise to 87.5 versus 86.5 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.