Friday, April 16, 2021

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less Emerging Market Debt Angst, Homebuilding/Shipping Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.3 -1.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,287.0 +52.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.70 +.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 -.10%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.5 +6.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 113.0 -31.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 +2.6%
  • NYSE Arms .77 -45.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.05 -.35%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 450.87 -.72%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.51 -.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.10 -6.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 161.32 -2.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.12 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.07 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 142.0 -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 172.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.20 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 141.70 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.8 -12.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +4.0 basis points
  • 90.1% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 90.1% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +112 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +37 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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