Monday, April 12, 2021

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Global Shutdown Worries, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +4.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,104.0 -105.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.71 -.15%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 -1.8%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +23.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .71 -4.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.68 +60.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.43 +.89%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 455.40 -.19%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.61 +1.27%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 103.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.36 +.64%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 189.28 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.75 -1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.0 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  65.75 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.46 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 149.0 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 166.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.15%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.40 -1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 150.10 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 unch.
  • 94.4% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 94.4% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -45 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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