Monday, April 19, 2021

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Virus Variant Worries, Escalating Russia/Ukraine Tensions, Valuation Concerns Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 167.9 +10.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,235.0 -68.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.51 -.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.92 -.3%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.7 -2.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -25.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 +10.1%
  • NYSE Arms .82 +39.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.72 +.93%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 449.0 -.01%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.10 +1.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 101.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 -8.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 163.47 +1.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF 39.08 unch.
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  66.25 +.5 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.07 +.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 141.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 178.25 USD/Metric Tonne +3.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.50 -5.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 136.20 -5.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.3 -1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • 90.1% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 90.1% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -345 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -183 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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