Saturday, September 30, 2017

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Spain Tries to Stop Catalonia's Weekend Vote on Independence. Catalonia heads into a watershed moment in its modern history this weekend, and no one really knows how it’s going to play out. Spanish government spokesman Inigo Mendez de Vigo said Friday that there’s no way the regional administration will pull off its plan to hold an illegal referendum on independence on Sunday. Jordi Turull, the Catalan executive’s spokesman, said Friday in Barcelona that almost 7,000 volunteers are ready to open 2,315 polling stations across the region of 7.5 million people.
  • Saudi GDP Shrinks for Second Quarter in a Row Amid OPEC Cuts. Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted for the second quarter in a row as the kingdom grapples with low oil prices and its businesses struggle to cope with economic reforms. The kingdom’s gross domestic product shrank 1 percent compared with the same period a year earlier, when it expanded 0.9 percent, according to official data released on Saturday. The economy had contracted 0.5 percent in the first three months of 2017.
  • Trump Ramps Up Fed Chair Search With Decision Due Within Weeks. Donald Trump in the next few weeks will make one of the most consequential decisions of his presidency with the choice of a nominee to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve, and the selection process is accelerating as he meets with top contenders. The president and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sat down Thursday with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and interviewed Fed Governor Jerome Powell Wednesday, three administration officials said. He’s also met with current Fed Chair Janet Yellen and White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, who are both in the running for the post, the officials said.
  • The Kindest Quarter Arrives for a Stock Market That Nothing Can Rattle. (video) Theories abound as to why the fourth quarter is so often the best one for equity bulls. Fund managers need to catch up, holiday spending spreads cheer, investors celebrate the January effect in December. Or maybe it’s just dumb luck. Whatever the case, the S&P 500 Index has risen seven times in the last eight years between October and December. And while calendar effects just took a beating with a volatility-free September, betting against any form of momentum remains a losing trade until proven otherwise.
  • FEMA Rethinking Policy That Bans Churches From Disaster Aid. Federal disaster-relief officials say they’re “considering making changes” to a policy banning churches, synagogues and mosques from receiving rebuilding aid that’s routinely given to other non-profits, such as zoos and museums.
Wall Street Journal:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (FSLR), (TSM), (GD), (TXT), (ERJ) and (AMAT)
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
  • A $732 billion investor says Wall Street is seriously underestimating Trump's tax plan. Even after some renewed enthusiasm in the last two weeks for lower corporate taxes, UBS Asset Management says Wall Street is placing too little odds on the prospects of tax reform. "There's no way that the markets would be trading this way if they were pricing in a greater than 50% probability of successful tax legislation," said Evan Brown, the director of asset allocation at UBS Asset Management, which oversees more than $732 billion in holdings. "It's starting to get priced in, but there's plenty of room," he told Business Insider on Thursday. 

Friday, September 29, 2017

Weekly Scoreboard*






S&P 500 2,517.24 +.58%
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 22,381.66 +.13%
  • NASDAQ 6,491.84 +1.02%
  • Russell 2000 1,491.76 +2.81%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 39.45 +1.78%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 139.96 +1.57%
  • Wilshire 5000 26,134.50 +.81%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,256.84 +.55%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,167.20 +.64%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 556.11 +.11%
  • Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3479 +1.42%
  • NYSE Technology 1,585.58 +.20%
  • Transports 9,906.51 +2.11%
  • Utilities 724.11 -.32%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 102.68 +1.64%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 44.52 -1.94%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,233.06 -.07%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,012.79 -.10%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 304,848 +.80%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 505 +137
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 47.92 n/a
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 418,074 +11.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,377,488 +1.38%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -2.08%
  • OEX Put/Call .41 -90.24%
  • ISE Sentiment 119.0 +83.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 -4.67%
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.54 +.52%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 22.31 +1.02%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.37 -5.85%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.88 unch.
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,630.89 -.27%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.740 Trillion +.59%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.533 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 33.3 -17.0%
  • AAII % Bears 28.7 +5.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 183.0 -.14%
  • Crude Oil 51.42 +1.66%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 160.05 -3.9%
  • Natural Gas 3.03 +2.51%
  • Heating Oil 180.89 -.29%
  • Gold 1,281.50 -1.04%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 197.95 +.81%
  • Copper 295.45 -.05%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 288.33 USD/Ton +.46%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 62.05 USD/Ton -2.38%
  • Lumber 403.1 +2.37%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,023.15 -1.05%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.3 +10.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -0.1% -10.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.5133 +5.26% 
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 220.23 +97.71%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 141.23 +.33%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.9 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.2 +.8 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.0 -1.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 87.6% chance of no change, 12.4% chance of 25 basis point hike on 11/1
  • US Dollar Index 93.16 +1.12%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,620.08 -1.19%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.64 -.66%
  • Yield Curve 85.0 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.32% +6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.416 Trillion -.06%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.77 -4.25%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 338.47 -.04%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 5.0 -1.09%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 18.98 +18.37%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 41.22 +2.04%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.41 -4.32%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 73.82 +2.53%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 142.23 -3.14%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 142.05 +.15%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.0 -1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 -10.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.07 -6.85%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 404.0 -6.4%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.64 +1.43%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 184.63 -2.25%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 153.0 +1.0 basis point
  • M1 Money Supply $3.540 Trillion -1.0%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,059.20 +1.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 277,750 +14,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.83% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 415.60 -.46%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 51.60 +1.0 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.1% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.57/gallon -.o2/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,391.0 -7.39%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 803.25 -1.12%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 22.50 +12.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 285,004 +5.56%
Best Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value +3.1%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Large-Cap Growth +.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Homebuilders +5.5%
  • Education +4.8%
  • Oil Service +4.2%
  • I-Banks +3.0%
  • Retail +2.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Drugs -.6% 
  • Telecom -.9%
  • Social Media -1.1%
  • Restaurants -1.2%
  • Gold & Silver -1.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (14)
  • MDGL, EXA, FINL, ACTA, OSTK, OUT, GHL, AGYS, OMN, CUB, BOLD, CIR, FDS and HOMB
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)
  • FSLR, CMP, UNIT, DGX, SCG, PTCT, TTS, CMTL, ITCI, ICPT, VERI and DXCM
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 9.43 -1.26%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.55 +.36%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.88 -2.11%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 21.77 -3.03%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +6.25%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +31.94%
  • NYSE Arms .98 -8.25%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.84 -1.74%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 407.0 +.33%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.52 -1.11%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 5.00 -3.0%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.99 +7.16%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.08 -.66%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 142.05 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 29.0 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -40.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.73 +.16%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.04% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 85.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $62.05/Metric Tonne -1.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.90 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.20 -3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +1.7 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -2.0 basis points
  • 70.5% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 71.1% chance at Jan. 31 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +44 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +57 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating unch. open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long