Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:                    
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 +.75 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 53.75 +1.75 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 127.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  59.2 +.6%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.24%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.28%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%.  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (MO)/1.16
  • (ABC)/2.62
  • (BSX)/.47
  • (EAT)/.52
  • (HUM)/1.47
  • (JCI)/.67
  • (NVS)/1.41
  • (ODFL)/2.67
  • (OTIS)/.75
  • (PTON)/-.64
  • (SMG)/-1.32
  • (TMO)/5.20
  • (TMUS)/1.06
After the Close:
  • (AFL)/1.21
  • (ALGN)/1.53
  • (ALL)/-1.16
  • (CHRW)/1.35
  • (ELF)/.23
  • (KLIC)/.24
  • (LSTR)/2.60
  • (MCK)/6.36
  • (META)/2.23
  • (MET)/1.64
  • (RGLD)/.78
  • (VSTO)/1.11
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Jan. is estimated to fall to 180K versus 235K in Dec.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to fall to 48.0 versus 48.4 in Dec.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to rise to 40.4 versus 39.4 in Dec. 
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to fall to 10300K versus 10458K in Nov.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate +25.0 basis points to 4.5-4.75%.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise to 15.5M versus 13.31M in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed press conference, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report, Australia Home Sales report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -3.5%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .87%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.0 +.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 +.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 -2.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -14.0 point
  • Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%
  • NYSE Arms .91 -32.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 -2.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.5 +.22%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 296.0 +2.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.6 -.68% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 357.2 -.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.8 +1.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 224.3 -3.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.9 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points unch.
  • TED Spread 21.25 basis points +5.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -5.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 128.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.3 euros/megawatt-hour +4.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 -.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 97.2 +6.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 +3.1 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.82 +.03:  Growth Rate +9.9% unch., P/E 17.9 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.44% +5.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.7%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 55.5%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.9%(+1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -.5% 2) Disk Drives -.4% 3) Computer Services -.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • HUBB, MU, CAT, BZ, GLW, PHG, ASAI, BTAI, PSX, HLIT and WWD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SMG 2) EMB 3) PHM 4) WHR 5) UPS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SIDU 2) CAT 3) ITGR 4) BBBY 5) UPST
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +3.6% 2) Alt Energy +2.6% 3) Gambling +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AI, GPRE, AOS, ALGM, IP, PHM, GM, PII, SSTK, FIBK and CRK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) WW 2) SYY 3) IP 4) ALT 5) MCD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MSGM 2) AI 3) CNTX 4) ALGM 5) PHM

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 80.2% of Issues Advancing, 17.4% Declining
  • 64 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
  • 58.0%(+6.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.8 +.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,561.2 +.3%
  • Vix 19.4 -2.7%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -4.4%
  • TRIN/Arms .99 -26.7%

Monday, January 30, 2023

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

Fox News:
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch:                  
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +3.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +3.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 127.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  58.4 -.08%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -3.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.29%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.19%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (CAT)/4.03
  • (GLW)/.44
  • (XOM)/3.28
  • (GM)/1.68
  • (IP)/.69
  • (MAN)/2.12
  • (MPC)/5.63
  • (MCD)/2.46
  • (MDC)/1.52
  • (NVR)/98.88
  • (PFE)/1.04
  • (PSX)/4.45
  • (PBI)/.08
  • (PII)/3.26
  • (PHM)/2.92
  • (SYY)/.84
  • (UPS)/3.59
After the Close:
  • (AMD)/.67
  • (AMGN)/4.08
  • (DOX)/1.34
  • (BXP)/1.84
  • (CP)/1.09
  • (CB)/4.25
  • (EA)/3.04
  • (IEX)/1.97
  • (JNPR)/.65
  • (MTCH)/.60
  • (MDLZ)/.70
  • (SNAP)/.12
  • (SYK)/2.84
  • (WDC)/-.13
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.2% gain in 4Q.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.5% versus unch. in Oct..
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Nov. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.52% decline in Oct.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Nov. is estimated to rise +6.7% versus a +8.64% gain in Oct.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 44.9 in Dec.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 109.0 versus 108.3 in Dec.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Jan.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German retail sales report and the weekly US retail sales reports,  could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.