Tuesday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:                                 

• Chief Executives, Economists Brace for Recession as Davos Begins.
• Things to Know as Davos Returns in Winter Amid ‘Polycrisis’ Risk.
• Singapore Exports Contract More Than Expected in December.
• Australia’s Consumer Sentiment Posts Biggest Gain in Nine Months.  
• Banxico Should Keep Peak Rate for Minimum Six Months, Board Member Says.
  
• Soaring Singapore Rents Set to Climb Another 10-15% This Year.  
  
• Canada Home Prices See Record Drop as High Rates Hit Buyers.  
• Japan Prods US and EU to Regulate Crypto Like Banks.
• Big Take: Energy, Chips, Taiwan: Flashpoints for 2023 in a Fractured World.  
• Asian Stocks Trade Mixed as New Year Gains Stall: Markets Wrap.  
• Oil Holds Decline Ahead of Chinese GDP Data and OPEC Outlook.  
• Microsoft to Add ChatGPT to Azure Cloud Services ‘Soon’.

Wall Street Journal:

• Shopper Rebellion Against Higher Prices Helps Slow Inflation.
• Ryan Cohen Takes Stake in Alibaba, Pushes for More Stock Buybacks.
• How the Gas Stove in Your Kitchen Became a Symbol of Freedom. The left framed its latest crusade as a ‘right-wing culture war.’ We’ve seen this pattern many times.
• The New Structural Racism. In Northern Virginia, affirmative action has hardened into a war on high achievers. 
• Do Overweight Kids Need Pills? The American Academy of Pediatrics says so, blaming the problem not on personal behavior and government programs but ‘structural racism.’ 
• Medical Residents Unionize Over Pay, Working Conditions.
• Founders of Bankrupt Crypto Firm Plan Trading Platform for Distressed Crypto Debt.

Fox News:

• Activists call for arrest of 'hero' diner who shot and killed robbery suspect.
• Biden takes swipe at Second Amendment supporters.

CNBC:

• The richest 1% amassed almost two-thirds of new wealth created in the last two years, Oxfam says.
• Manchin, Sinema and Coons meet with CEOs at private Davos luncheon for World Economic Forum.
• The Davos elite like to make bold predictions. But they don’t always get them right.

Zero Hedge:      

• Musk Says ZeroHedge Did "Nothing Warranting Suspension" After 'Twitter Files' Expose Big Pharma Bullying.
• How The Coming Debt Ceiling Debacle Blew Up The Fed's QT, And What Happens Next.
• Will You Beat Uncle Sam's Relentless Pursuit Of Your Wealth?
• Ron Paul: Isn't It Time For Adam Schiff To Be Expelled From Congress?
• Will Aseem Malhotra's Appearance Be The BBC's Most Viewed Program Of 2023?
• Economists Warn Americans Recession Is Coming: "Don't Be Fooled".
• Quiet newsflow and thinned volumes with US cash markets closed MLK Jr. Day - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• World Economic Forum Invents New Word To Describe The Extreme Chaos Gripping Our Planet.
• US NatGas Prices Rise As Models Suggest 'Polar Vortex To Unload On US'.
• Chevron Sold Venezuelan Oil To Phillips 66.
• The Best Video On Climate Change That You Will Ever See.
• All The President's Men: Biden's Use Of Lawyers Raises Additional Concerns Over Handling Classified Material.
• Republicans Call Out 'Double Standard' Over Biden Classified Docs Hypocrisy.
• Mayor Says NYC Being "Undermined", Has "No More Room" For Illegal Immigrants.
• Some stuff is getting stretched.
• "Distasteful Masterclass In Hypocrisy": Elites Swarm Davos In Private Jets To Discuss Climate Crisis.
• Claims Of A Lower CPI Cannot Inflate Away Reality.
• German Defense Minister Resigns As Criticism Over Ukraine Mounts.
• "A New System" – Inside The Davos Summit 2023.
• Futures Dip As Dollar Rebounds From 8 Month Low.
• Firmer APAC trade though gains were tempered by COVID updates - Newsquawk Euro Market Open. 
• Destroying American Democracy - An Inside Job.
• Visualizing The Changing World Population, By Country.
• Japan's Experts Baffled By High 'COVID Deaths' Despite High Vaccination Rate.
• House GOP Bill Would Order Federal Workers Back To Office.

MarketWatch.com:              

• Davos starts today with a focus on climate change. 
  
• Earnings season is coming — what to look for.

NewsMax:

• Rep. Harrison: End Vax Mandate for Healthcare Workers.
• Texas State Rep.: Agenda to Sexualize Children 'Enrages Me'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:  

• “I Have INFO on Everyone!” – Trump Taunts Joe Biden After White House Lawyer Claims There Are No Visitor Logs at Biden Delaware Home.
• Wyoming GOP Lawmakers Propose Ban on Sale of Electric Vehicles by 2035 to Protect Its Oil and Gas Industry.
• AI Robot Lawyer Will Defend Traffic Violater In Court.
• San Francisco Reparations Committee Mulls Paying $5 Million to Each Black Resident and Granting Total Debt Forgiveness.
• 2-Year-Old Child Dies Suddenly One Day After Receiving Both the COVID Vaccine and Annual Flu Vaccine.
• 13 FACTS on the Dozens of Federal Operatives Who Infiltrated the Trump Crowds on January 6th at the US Capitol.
• BIDEN ECONOMY: Real Estate Experts Are Sounding the Alarm that US Markets Are in Big Trouble.
• Joe Biden Awkwardly Sings Happy Birthday to MLK III’s Wife, Forgets Her Name (VIDEO).
• Questionable Governor Katie Hobbs Rolls Out New Budget Proposal Eliminating Border Security, Repealing School Choice Law, And $40 MILLION For In-State College Tuition For Illegal Aliens.
• JUST IN: Another Twitter Files Drop: How the Pharmaceutical Industry Lobbied Social Media to Shape Content Around Vaccine Policy.
• Freedom Flyers Organization: Wealthy Businessman Have Reached Out and Want UNVACCINATED PILOTS To Fly Their Jets (VIDEO).
• Former American Idol Contestant Dies Suddenly at 31 After Suffering ‘Apparent Heart Attack’.
• George Soros Pulls Out of World Economic Forum Due to “Unavoidable Scheduling Problem”.
• IT WAS ALL PLANNED: Tactical Commander for US Capitol Police Admits Under Oath that “Agitators” Who Were “Highly Trained” Ripped Down Fencing Prior to Protest at US Capitol on Jan. 6.

The Epoch Times:

• US, Taiwan Hold Formal Bilateral Trade Negotiations.

Twitter:

• @QTRResearch - "The weaponization of science to censor, persecute, delegitimize, and threaten those who had differing opinions has never happened on this scale in this country." - from "We Must Have The Truth".

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 918,508 Reports(+3,097 from prior week) Through December 30th, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs). 
• COVID Money Tracker. Tracking the Covid response.
  

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.25 -1.25 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 53.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 119.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.4 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.4 +.8%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .11 -1.0 basis point. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.9 +.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%.
• S&P 500 futures -.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.27%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (GS)/5.77
• (MS)/1.31
• (EDU)/.09
• (SBNY)/4.90
  

After the Close:

• (IBKR)/1.16
• (PNFP)/2.04
• (PRGS)/1.10
• (UAL)/2.12
  

Economic Releases

8:30 Am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to rise to -8.3 versus -11.2 in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German CPI report and the (MNST) investor day could also impact trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.