Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Diminished China Hard-Landing Fears, Declining Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.3 +.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.9 +2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.7 +.8%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +1.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.8 +.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .84 -19.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.05 +14.1%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.59 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 374.97 -1.92%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 307.0 -20.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.11 -2.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 419.0 -4.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 196.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.6 -5.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 226.05 -.82%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.02 +.48%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.0 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• TED Spread 23.0 basis points +2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 115.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .80 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.0 +.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 117.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.19%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 74.8 euros/megawatt-hour +7.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.1 -1.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 77.1 -1.9 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.2 -1.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.73 -.18:  Growth Rate +11.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.1 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.12 +9.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -69.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.48% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 69.7%(+2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 50.9%(+4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -74.2%(-4.5 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +346 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +70 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +39 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long