Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Better-Than-Expected CPI Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/REIT Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.0 +1.9%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .58%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.5 -2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.56 +.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.9 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 +19.0
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -17.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.4 +84.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 73.1 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 363.25 -1.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 352.0 +20.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.61 -2.7% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 412.02 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.0 basis points -8.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.2 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.58 -1.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.95 +.71%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 12.0 basis points -10.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  132.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 115.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .80 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.2 +.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.67% +5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 121.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.31%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 65.0 euros/megawatt-hour -7.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.8 -.4 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 79.5 -.6 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.9 +.2 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.30 -.14:  Growth Rate +11.0% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .13 +8.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -68.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 66.2%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 47.1%(-1.8 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.2%(-.2 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +24 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +118 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +73 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long