Friday, September 30, 2022

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
Wall Street Journal:

Fox News:

CNBC:
Zero Hedge:
MarketWatch.com:              
NewsMax:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 3,619.74 -1.74%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 28,911.25 -2.12%
  • NASDAQ 10,571.61 -1.46%
  • Russell 2000 1,682.73 +.51%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 58.05 -1.46%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 169.77 +.52%
  • Wilshire 5000 36,348.50 -1.7%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,144.41 -1.52%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,351.13 -1.57%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 698.88 -3.2%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,078.93 -.86%
  • NYSE Technology 2,508.45 -1.63%
  • Transports 12,141.93 +.27%
  • Utilities 890.37 -8.9%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 64.8 -5.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 35.14 -2.44%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,427.19 -.30%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 913.22 -.15%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 438,598 -1.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -2,220 +325
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.7 -6.4%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 239,878 +5.7%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,481,545 -1.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 -22.2%
  • OEX Put/Call .66 +18.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 102.0 +37.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.17 -15.9
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.7 +4.1%
  • Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index + Bubbles 1.59 -34.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 31.3 +3.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.43% -28.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 49.71 -1.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.0 +8.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 12.5 +7.0%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 14,075.35 -2.3%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  12.61 -17.0 points
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.590 Trillion +.14%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.872 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 20.0 +13.0%
  • AAII % Bears 60.8 -.2%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 271.16 +1.0%
  • Crude Oil 79.94 +.89%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 247.99 +3.2%
  • Natural Gas 6.89 +.57%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 188.8 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
  • Heating Oil 337.61 +3.1% 
  • Newcastle Coal 409.25 (1,000/metric ton) -2.6%
  • Gold 1,665.65 +1.30%
  • Silver 19.05 +1.0%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 404.05 +.58%
  • Copper 340.65 +2.3%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 365.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.39%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.90 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Lumber  417.0 -4.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,513.43 -.12%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 600.0 USD/Short Ton -3.2%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.43% +216.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -10.1% +.2 percentage point
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 50.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.68 +38.9%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 114.25 -7.7%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.05 -.18:  Growth Rate +15.8% unch., P/E 15.5 -.1 point
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.90 +7.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .2 -3.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.40 -5.7 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point rate hike, 42.8%(+15.7 percentage points) chance of +50.0 basis point hike and 57.2%(-15.7 percentage points) chance of +75.0 basis point hike on 11/2 to 3.75-4.0%
  • US Dollar Index 112.35 -.63%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,581.44 -1.02%
  • Bitcoin/USD 19,699.80 +4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.73 +1.88%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -41.75 +9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.73% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $8.760 Trillion -.25%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.79 +17.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 217.28 +.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 241.0 +9.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 47.4 +31.6%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109.06 +6.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 309.44 +10.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.74 -4.3%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.86 +15.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.53 -3.11%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.3% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +12.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +11.4% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% +43.0 basis points: CPI YoY +8.20% +1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15% -22.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 45.0 -.25 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 29.25 -11.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -66.25 -41.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 106.50 +.59%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 405.0 +11.2
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 411.0 +31.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 149.44 +5.0%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 329.88 +4.43%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 unch.
  • iShares CMBS ETF 46.04 -.17%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 +4.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change 4.1 -120.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,230.30 +.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,000 -4.1%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.0% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 47.50 n/a
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.83% +28.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 254,800 -3.7%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +10.9% unch.
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change from 2019 -1.8% -.2 percentage point
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $68.2M +19.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.80/gallon +.11/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,757 -3.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,328.81 -5.9%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 50.0 -9.1%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 54.44 -4.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 257,853 +2.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,048,551 +7.2%
  • US Covid-19:  105 infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.0%(-.4 percentage point) of peak on 1/14/22(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report
  • US Covid-19:  New patient hospital admissions per 100K -82.7%(-1.1 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22-1/15/22
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth +2.5%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value -1.6%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +8.3%
  • Oil Service +5.5%
  • Education +4.1%
  • Energy +4.0%
  • Biotech +4.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Telecom -4.1%
  • Shipping -4.1%
  • Airlines -5.0%
  • Electric Vehicles -5.3%
  • Utilities -8.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (7)
  • RCKT, TCDA, POSH, NAVI, CRL, CDMO and GNRC
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)
  • POR, WSM, ABBV, TGNA, W, AAN, WWW, APAM, LEVI, SKX, MLKN, RCL, NKE, NCLH and RCII
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Road & Rail/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 30.3 -5.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.7 +.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.81 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.5 -1.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.98 -.33% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 +7.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 -.54%
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 -20.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 107.8 +.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 452.62 -.4%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 411.0 -15.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 148.43 -3.21%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 241.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 186.25 +.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 330.90 -1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.53 -.37%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 29.25 basis points +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 45.0 basis points +10.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -66.25 basis points +3.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  173.0 +5.0 basis points
  • iShares CMBS ETF 46.07 -.13%
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .66 -1.0 basis  point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.09 -.35%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.29% unch.
  • Yield Curve -41.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 94.10 USD/Metric Tonne -2.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 18.80 euros/megawatt-hour -7.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index .2 +5.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -4.1 points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 236.05 +.04:  Growth Rate +15.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.4 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -1.39 -9.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.43% +216.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.11% +43.0 basis points: CPI YoY +8.20% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.15 -6.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for December 14th FOMC meeting: 48.2%(-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for February 1st meeting: 48.7%(+1.2 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
US Covid-19:
  • 105 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 6.0%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -83.4%(-.7 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +82 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On losses in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to Market Neutral