Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:           

• Goldman Slashes China’s 2023 Growth Forecast.
• Wall Street CEOs Grilled on China, Russia Ties by US Lawmakers.  
• Hong Kong Lifts Benchmark Rate for Fifth Time After Fed Action.  
• Fed Rate Hikes Paint Bleak Picture for Southeast Asia Currencies.  
• After Fed Hike, Analysts Say US Dollar ‘Only Game in Town’
• South Korean Won Weakens Past 1,400 for First Time Since 2009.
• Singapore’s Rising Costs of Running a Business Outpace Hong Kong.
• Stocks Extend Drop on Fed Vow to Crush Inflation: Markets Wrap.
• Powell Signals Recession May Be Price to Pay for Crushing Inflation. 
• Powell Warns of Correction in Once ‘Red-Hot’ Housing Market.  
• Crypto Shakeout Engulfs the C-Suite as CEOs Start Stepping Down.  
• “Dr. Doom” Roubini Expects a ‘Long, Ugly’ Recession and Stocks Sinking 40%.
• Stock Bulls Reluctantly Fold on the Fed’s Grim Economic Message.

Wall Street Journal:

• The Fed’s March Upward. The FOMC raises its terminal target rate forecast again—to 4.6%.
• Increase of 0.75 point is third straight in bid to tamp down inflation.
• How Rate Increases Will Hit Americans’ Monthly Budgets.
• Heard on the Street: Powell Doesn’t Have to Go Full Volcker for Stocks to Drop.
• Meta Quietly Reduces Staff in Cost-Cutting Push.
• Putin, Under Pressure Over Ukraine War, Turns to Familiar Escalation Playbook.
• High Energy Prices in Europe Push Manufacturers to Shift to the U.S.
• Home Sales Fall for Seventh Straight Month.
• Wall Street CEOs Uncertain Fed Can Achieve Soft Landing.

Fox News: 

• Bill Barr tears into New York AG's lawsuit against former president: ‘Trump derangement syndrome’.

CNBC.com:

• Fed raises rates by another three-quarters of a percentage point, pledges more hikes to fight inflation.
• 2-year Treasury yield surges above 4.1% after Fed hike, highest level since 2007.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: H.B. Fuller, KB Home, Lennar and more.
• Mortgage rates will likely rise after Fed action, but experts say housing prices could soon drop. 
  

MarketWatch:          

• Ray Dalio says stocks, bonds have further to fall, sees U.S. recession arriving in 2023 or 2024.
  
• $8 a gallon gas? Brace for higher oil prices as Russia escalates Ukraine conflict, RBC energy guru says.
  
• Carl Icahn to investors: ‘The worst is yet to come’.  
• Steve Case of AOL sees parallels to dot-com era in today’s challenging tech climate.

Zero Hedge:

• Putin & Powell Pummel Markets; Gold Jumps, Yield-Curve Inversion Nears Volcker Lows.
• Vanderbilt Pediatric Transgender Clinic Nukes Website After Matt Walsh Exposes 'Big Money Maker' Motive.
• I Told You So: Aramco CEO Slams Unrealistic Energy Policies.
• "Powell Would Throw Millions Of Americans Out Of Work": Liz Warren Slams Powell, As Dems Launch Scapegoat Campaign.
• Man Accused Of Murdering 18-Year-Old Conservative Released On Bail.
• Oil And Gas Jobs Are Bouncing Back In The Lone Star State.
• Most Adults Should Be Screened For Anxiety, Depression According To US-Funded Panel.
• Polls: Americans Oppose Increasing Ukraine Aid, Defending Global Democracy.
• "Have U Been F**ked": Washington Monument Vandalized.
• US stocks declined after the FOMC hiked rates and raised dot plot projections - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Nobody Has Traded 10Y Japanese Govt Bonds For 2 Days!
• House Democrats Take Ownership Of Hunter: Committee Votes Down Inquiry Into Influence Peddling.
• Russia Restricts Travel For Young Men, Flights Abroad Sell Out, After 'Partial' Mobilization.
• If It's Over, Why The Continued Emergency?
• Stocks sold, Dollar bid, Curve flattens after 75bps hike & hawkish dots - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Fed Hikes Rates Another 75bps, Sends Hawkish 'Higher For Longer' Signal With DotPlot.

Newsmax:  

• Dr. Oz: Fetterman 'Most Pro-murderer Candidate in America'.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• House Passes Legislation Changing Electoral Vote Counting Process For Presidential Elections – Here Are the 9 Republicans Who Voted with Democrats
• SHOCKER: Radical Anti-American Groups that Sued Ron DeSantis Received $1.4 Million from Soros’ Open Society Network.
• BREAKING: Fulton County, Pennsylvania Sues Dominion Voting.
• Mike Lindell Is Suing FBI, DOJ For Violating His Constitutional Rights — Merrick Garland And Chris Wray Are Defendants.
• Coalition of 24 State Attorneys General Send Letter to Credit Card Companies for Violation of Second Amendment Rights.
• Trump-Appointed Judge Strikes Down Federal School Mask and Vaccine Mandate.
• Putin Warns West – His Nuclear Threat “Is Not a Bluff” (VIDEO).
• NY AG Letitia James Lawsuit Seeks to Make Trump Pay $250 Million, Ban Trumps From Running NY Businesses, Buying Real Estate – Makes Criminal Referral to DOJ.
• 41-Year-Old Shannon Brandt RELEASED on Bond After Killing 18-Year-Old Cayler Ellingson Over Teen’s Conservative Views.
  

The Epoch Times:

• NBA Free Agent Enes Kanter Freedom Calls China ‘A Real Threat to the World’.
• Exposing the Communist Forces, Including China, Behind US Election Integrity Issues: Trevor Loudon | Facts Matter.
• China Weaponizes Fentanyl Issue Against America: Expert.

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 865,585 Reports(+1,922 from prior week) Through September 7th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 151.75 +10.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 91.5 +6.0 basis points.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.88 -.13%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 44.9 +.9%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.67 +3.0 basis points
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.7 +1.6%
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.90%.

• S&P 500 futures -.74%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.90%  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ACN)/2.58
• (DRI)/1.56
• (FDS)/3.21

After the Close:

• (AIR)/.59
• (CAMP)/-.04
• (COST)/4.17
• (FDX)/2.80
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The 2Q Current Account Balance is estimated at -$260.0B versus -$291.4B in 1Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 217K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1418K versus 1403K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Aug. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.4% decline in July.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 5.0 versus 3.0 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The EU Consumer Confidence report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, DA Davidson Industrials/Services Conference and the (COLM) analyst day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.