Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Russia/Ukraine War Hopes, US Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.7 +3.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.06%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 46.2 -1.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.52 +.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -1.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 45.4 +1.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -12.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .99 +6.5%

• NYSE Arms .79 +64.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 79.66 -2.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 392.29 -1.1%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 349.0 -17.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 111.91 -4.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 231.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 124.85 -2.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 286.88 -.54%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.61 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 32.5 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 23.75 basis points +2.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  144.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.17 -.27%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .69 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.84 +.31%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.05% +3.0 basis points
  

• Yield Curve -25.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 191.0 euros/megawatt-hour -7.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.6 +4.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -12.9 +4.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.1 -5.2 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.48 +.03:  Growth Rate +15.8% unch., P/E 17.3 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.25 +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.30% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 79.2%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 69.0%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 133 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.6%(-.4 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -7/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -79.4%(-.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -187 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -6 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure:  75% Net Long