Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Biotech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 24.1 -2.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 2.12% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 44.7 +5.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 148.16 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.4 -1.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.6 -2.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 +19.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .95 -4.0%

• NYSE Arms .71 +16.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 84.53 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.38 -1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 367.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 122.37 -2.4%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 226.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 133.75 -3.6%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 299.81 -1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.60 -.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 36.0 basis points -1.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 16.0 basis points +2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.0 basis points +4.75 basis pionts
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  142.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• iShares CMBS ETF 47.37 +.17%
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.53 +.05%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.0% unch.
  

• Yield Curve -20.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 221.0 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.6 +3.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.8 +1.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.6 -.5 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 237.42 -.01:  Growth Rate +15.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 16.9 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.34 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.36% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.62% unch.: CPI YoY +8.24% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for November 2nd FOMC meeting: 84.6%(+8.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for December 14th meeting: 84.6%(+8.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 147 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.4%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -78.5%(-1.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -83 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure:  Moved to 50% Net Long