Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,091.0 -8.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 38,507.9 -7.6%

• NASDAQ 15,660.0 -9.8%

• Russell 2000 1,819.4 -10.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 10,448.0 -9.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 166.2 -13.2%

• Wilshire 5000 50,221.3 -9.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,303.3 -9.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,686.3 -8.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 861.6 -2.0%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 221.4 -5.1%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,471.5 -11.8%

• Transports 13,115.3 -9.9%

• Utilities 968.7 -4.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 119.2 -13.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.4 -7.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 218.11 -.36%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 119.87 +.23%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 533,383 -.42%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.1 -35.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,631 -1,438

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.7 -.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 180,558 +8.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,783,978 +.88%

• Total Put/Call 1.37 +36.6%

• OEX Put/Call .75 -.54%

• ISE Sentiment 84.0 -23.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .92 -26.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.6 -42.3%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.39 -70.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -29.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 42.1 +88.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 3.39 +265.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 42.1 +59.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.30 +13.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.6 +2.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,465.4 -.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  49.4 -8.2

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.032 Trillion +.25%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$12.656 Million

• AAII % Bulls 20.8 -20.4%

• AAII % Bears 61.9 +18.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 5.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -18.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 303.6 -1.1%

• Crude Oil 61.8/bbl. -10.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 204.8 -8.3%

• Natural Gas 3.87 -5.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -10.0%
  

• Heating Oil 208.3 -7.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 99.0 (1,000/metric ton) -4.4%
  

• Gold 3,023.4 -1.7%
• Silver 29.3 -13.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 442.6 -4.4%

• Copper 440.4 -13.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 372.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,250.0 USD/metric tonne -1.2%

• CME Lumber  591.0 -12.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,440.5 -.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 315.0 USD/Short Ton +.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -2.85% -5.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.4% +9.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.28 +10.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 417.7 +53.6%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $140.0 Billion($915.03 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.9 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.42 +.32:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -1.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.58% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.68 +.90: Growth Rate +21.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 26.3 -2.3
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.3 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -4.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -3.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 35.1%(+16.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 64.9%(-16.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7

• US Dollar Index 102.96 -1.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,758.4 +.08%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 83,070.0 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.24 -.69%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 32.25 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.93% -32.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.677 Trillion -.26%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.259 Billion -10.8%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.77 +12.0%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 300.5 +8.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 +7.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.0 +4.9%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.4 +18.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 201.3 +7.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109.8 +22.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 +12.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.69 -1.9%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.0 -.82%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.9% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% +2.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.30% +14.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -10.5 basis points -5.75 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.0 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -4.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.20 +19.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 248.0 +20.5% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259.0 +48.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 84.1 +23.9%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.7 +23.4%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 212.1 +14.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 616.0 +16.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .60 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,394.8B +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 223,000 -.56%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.63 +.69%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.71% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 243,600 -1.6%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.3% -20.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -1.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $79.5M +7.2%

• Nationwide Gas $3.27/gallon +.11/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,540.0 -3.9%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,207.7/40 ft Box +1.8%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,102.7 +1.8%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 85.0 +9.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,688 +2.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,619,267 +11.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -7.6%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -10.6%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilding +.3%

• Foods unch.
• Healthcare Providers unch.

• Utilities -2.7%
  

• Retail -4.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -14.4%
  

• Energy -14.9%
  

• Semis -15.7%

• Computer Hardware -18.8%
  

• Oil Service -19.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• ALMS, IBP, DHI, SLP, GME, MHO, RKT and GRBK

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (103)

• KMPR, YUMC, JHX, JD, HWM, PBR, ZK, PTY, DEC, COHR, LUV, OKE, NOG, OKE, SPR, APO, BHF, LNG, GGAL, GFI, OWL, GEG, DD, WDC, HTHT, YPF, ARES, DB, BIDU, EWTX, KRUS, ENTG, TWO, GEV, BHVN, AYI, SLB, VST, DVN, BKR, QFIN, PAAS, DVN, MEOH, HTHT, YPF, BIDU, GFI, TWO, HOOD, VIST, AYI, BKR, TECK, ALB, BABA, ECO, FANG, SG, BHVN, MRVL, BTU, DRD, RRC, FWRD, CHX, MU, EQT, EH, FRO, BBAR, EQH, PBF, FCX, QDEL, FLEX, VAL, MTDR, JKS, VRT, AR, UPST, NVGS, GEHC, SUPV, AFRM, CENX, TBBK, SDRL, APA, BILI, NE, WDS, BE, TEN, OVV, INOD, WFRD, APP, FUTU, VTLE, NBR and SNDK

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Plunging into Afternoon on China's Trade War Escalation, Global Growth Fears, Surging Global Debt Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

• Volume: Very Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 42.2 +40.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 3.4 +118.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 40.6 -20.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.88 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.2 +22.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.35 +17.4%

• NYSE Arms .91 -33.6%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$189.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.4 +8.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 499.3 +12.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259.0 +19.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.1 +15.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.7 +14.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 basis points +7.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.8 +7.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.9 +8.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 109.8 +11.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.69 -.86%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.0 basis points -2.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -9.5 basis points -4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -4.5 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 616.0 +13.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.9%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.27% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.6 USD/Metric Tonne -3.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.3 +3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +7.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.42 -.02:  Growth Rate +13.4% unch., P/E 18.6 -1.0
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.58% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.68 unch.: Growth Rate +21.1% unch., P/E 25.2 -1.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.39 -48.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -18.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% +.9 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.4% +6.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -12.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 67.7% (+4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 64.0%(+14.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -529 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +189 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral