Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -4.5% to -1.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 +1.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
  • Crude Oil 93.91/bbl. -1.3%. 
  • Gold 4,160.90 USD/t oz. +1.24%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.08 +.69%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.61 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 131.2 -2.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 5.11% -8.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.02 -4.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 +1.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.93%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.40%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.94%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and metals & mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.9 +2.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.0 -.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .40 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.3 -.2% 
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.0 +1.2% 
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 58.9 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.7 +.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.2 +3.1
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 47.4 -1.3
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +5.7
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(32 of 500 reporting) +54.1% -13.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.46 +.37:  Growth Rate +24.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,088.95 +.46: Growth Rate +62.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 -.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 38.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.2 -1.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 87.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.4%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.3% +.7%
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.19% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.92 +15.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 59.9% (-9.4 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 44.6%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -910 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -207 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Modestly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -3.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -6.0% 2) AI/Innovation -5.3% 3) Space +5.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PENN, MRP, CBRS, ETN, NHP, EFXT, PRCH, BAC, POWI, GSL, CVNA, CCJ, KGS, CAMT, STT, AEM, DHT, ALK, LAZ, BILI, HAWK, CELC, OKTA, PAAS, SEDG, WHR, SECZ, STM, RMIX, KGC, BKV, LGIH, IDR, EGO, VRT, MMED, QXO, GEV, HIMX, PSLV, MITK, HSHP, LGN, ROAD, MP, SOFI, POWL, AG, ELE, FIGR, HYMC, FN, SSRM, CDE, COHU, FRVO, MUX, XRPN, INIO, CMBT, OKLO, GLXY, CTGO, RGTI, ENPH, SHAZ, AKAM, LITE, CRDO, ORCL, SEI, QNT, HPP, USAR, ONTO, CLS, QBTS, APLD, OUST, SSMR, ASTS, HUT, IONQ, PSIX, AFRM, RIOT, TTMI, SITM, U,  LEU, ASST, NNE, XMTR, AEVA, AMSC, NBIS, DELL, AAOI, PPTA, BKSY, WULF, IREN, PENG, CORZ, CDNL, GDS, DOCN, WOLF and CRWV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BSP 2) HRTX 3) CCXI 4) ALEC 5) CMPX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HYLN 2) HPE 3) BAC 4) MU 5) BETR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLP 3) DRAM 4) IBB 5) XLU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Pharma +3.2% 2) Healthcare Providers +1.7% 3) Biotech +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AEHL, BSP, LQDA, SCTX, LEGN, HALO, AADX, NRIX, GFS, UNH, PRGO and WLTH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MCHP 2) GLNG 3) BSP 4) DASH 5) UMN 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) LQDA 2) GLND 3) VSTM 4) AMGN 5) ABBV
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) ITB 3) ALAI 4) XLE 5) GDX
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BNY)/2.27
  • (SCHW)/1.66
  • (CMC)/1.95
  • (MAN)/1.01
  • (MRSH)/1.97
  • (PNC)/4.91
  • (PLD)/1.57
  • (TSM)/4.46
  • (USB)/1.32
  • (BJRI)/.16
  • (WHR)/.99 
After the Close: 
  • (AA)/1.51
  • (CNS)/.90
  • (IBKR)/.67 
  • (JBHT)/1.81 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.2% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.4% gain in Aug.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Sept. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.2% gain in Aug.
  • Empire Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to rise to 12.3 versus 7.6 in Sept.
  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for Oct. is estimated to fall to 28.0 versus 37.8 in Sept.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 200K versus 197K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1709K versus 1716K prior.
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Aug.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Aug. 
10:00 am EST
  • Business Inventories for Aug. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in July.

12:00 pm EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +95,500 barrels versus a -3,186,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -687,000 barrels versus a +382,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,569,830 barrels versus a -42,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.55% versus a +.2% gain prior. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Warsh speaking, Fed's Hammock speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, IMF meetings, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MDT) annual meeting and the (SMTC) analyst day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +12.6% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.7 +.1
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 19.3% of Issues Advancing, 79.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .75 -38.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$372.6M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 299 New Lows
  • 37.0% (-6.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 44.8 -4.2
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 8.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31st 1.0% unch.
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 1.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 10.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31st 13.0% -1.0 percentage point
Other
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 135.0 -.6%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 69.0 +9.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 45.0% +5.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 475.5 +18.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 264.8 -1.5%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 148.5.9 -1.7%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (FEAR) -12.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.3 +15.0%
  • Vix 16.8 +10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .88 +7.3%