Monday, August 10, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC  
  • @WallStEngine
  • AST SPACEMOBILE. $ASTS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS.  Revenue: $31.5M (Est. $35M).  EPS: -$0.77 (Est. -$0.28). FY Guide:  Revenue: $150.0M-$200.0M (Est. $169M)
  • $HIMS & HERS Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $753.2M (Est. $700M) ; +38% YoY. GAAP EPS: -$0.37. Adj. EBITDA: $60.3M (Est. $47.2M) ; -27% YoY. Subscribers: 2,891; +19% YoY. FY26 Guide: Revenue: $3.1B-$3.3B (Est. $2.93B). Adjusted EBITDA: $275M-$325M (Est. $296M). Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 9%-10%. 
  • ROCKET LAB $RKLB Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS Revenue: $234M (Est. $231M) ; +62% YoY. EPS: -$0.08 (Est. -$0.07). Backlog: $2.36B; +137% YoY. Q3 Guide: Revenue: $250M-$265M (Est. $239M). EBITDA: $17M-$23M loss (Est. -$11.8M). GAAP Gross Margin: 29%-31%. Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 35%-37%. GAAP OpEx: $143M-$149M. Non-GAAP OpEx: $121M-$127M. Interest Income, net: $21M. Shares: 641M. 
  • OpenAI is hiring a power-trading lead to manage hedging and procurement across its growing data center portfolio. The role will cover electricity and natural gas exposure, as OpenAI builds out its own capabilities around power sourcing, commodity risk & infrastructure economics. 
  • @MerengoFS 
  • $CRWV Earnings Preview
  • $LITE Earnings Preview. 
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 37.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
  • Crude Oil 82.37/bbl. +.29% 
  • Gold 4,47.50 USD/t oz. +1.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.32 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.47 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.87 -.13%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.71% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% n/a.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.09%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.33%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by transport and real estate shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Escalation Fears, War-Induced Inflation Worries, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Utility Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.7 +1.7%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.4 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.19 -4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 +.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 141.4 +.5%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 55.6 +.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.0 -.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.2 -2.3
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.2 +.3
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.8 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(444 of 500 reporting) +50.7% -1.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 388.14 +1.69:  Growth Rate +31.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.23% +6.0 basis  points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 944.03 +3.63: Growth Rate +82.0% +.7 percentage point, P/E 20. +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.33 +9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 46.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.4 +.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 61.7 euros/megawatt-hour +11.1%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.70% +6.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.76 +8.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.7% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 43.2%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -110 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +1 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +90 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, took profits in transport longs and added energy longs
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -3.9% 2) Homebuilding -2.2% 3) Semis -1.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MATW, IIIV, MNDY, PZZA, TTD, UTI, DOLE, ZIM, HE, AAON, MLTX, DOCS, B, BLBD, UVV, LASR, JBGS, SIMO, HELP, COHR, AXTI and LINC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WHR 2) PZZA 3) AIPO 4) EYPT 5) UAA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PZZA 2) CELH 3) WDC 4) APP 5) HUBS
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) XLI 4) SMH 5) KBE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service +5.3% 2) Energy +5.0% 3) Cyber Security +3.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VREX, HZO, BSP, SLN, NESR, FSLY, STDN, REPL, CLMT, TXG, HP, LFST, BETR, RBRK, P, SDRL, VAL, DDOG, HNRG, QDEL, BMRN, TRUP, DSP, DCTH, PBF, MP, CCOI, GMTL, IPI, TEM, AKAM, VRTX, EXK, RDNT, CCB, GRAL, LXU, NTSK, CRC, BBNX, OMDA, DBVT, KSPI, VISN, BLLN, CXW, ERO, MESO, BLZE, AEHR, AXSM, SGRY, ALOY, ADIG, ABNB, GMED, FSM, HL, QNST, VIA, UBER, CAKE and INVX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BETA 2) ERO 3) SE 4) BKD 5) ABCL 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NESR 2) POWW 3) HP 4) FSLY 5) TXG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) DRAM 3) KRE 4) XLB 5) XLE
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ARMK)/.48
  • (CAH)/2.42
  • (CDNL)/.46
  • (ONON)/.34
  • (SE)//.86
  • (SFD)/.60 
After the Close: 
  • (BGS)/.06
  • (CAVA)/.18
  • (CRWV)/-1.23
  • (HRB)/2.21
  • (LITE)/2.97
  • (SMCI)/.92 
Economic Releases 
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits

  • (MNST) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US Retail Sales reports, Citi Natural Resources Conference, Oppenheimer Tech Conference, Deutsche Bank Industrials Summit, Raymond s Industrials Showcase, Canaccord Genuity Growth Conference, KeyBanc Tech Leadership Forum, (FLUT) investor meeting, (MNRO) annual meeting and the JPMorgan Auto Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -10.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 -1.9
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 37% of Issues Advancing, 68.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .65 -47.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$126.9M
  • 73 New 52-Week Highs, 69 New Lows
  • 60.8% (-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 69.3 +2.3
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 9.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 4.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 7.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 1.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% unch.
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31st 34.0% -17.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 127.70 +1.3%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 65.0 -9.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 91.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 465.5 +.25 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 274.8 +1.3%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 151.3 -.05%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (GREED) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.4 -26.4%
  • Vix 15.3% +2.8%
  • Total Put/Call .82 +6.5%