Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.8 -1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.99 +1.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .25 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.5 +.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 141.4 -.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 55.2 +2.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.9 -1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.4 -3.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -19.2 +5.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.1 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(11 of 500 reporting) +188.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 370.78 +3.84:  Growth Rate +26.1% +1.4 percentage points, P/E 20.0 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.60% +7.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 893.71 +42.23: Growth Rate +72.3% +8.1 percentage point, P/E 18.8 -.6 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .96 -2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.54 -1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.57 euros/megawatt-hour +4.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.7% -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.46 +5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.2%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,340 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +7 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +280 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -2.6% 2) I-Banks -1.9% 3) Gold & Silver -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MGY, PTCT, WMB, AUPH, NVGS, T, FIZZ, ATRC, SEPN, CSL, KMTS, VZ, MLM, WYFI, BTDR, APOG, VC, ZSQR, CAPR, SNEX and EVMN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IHI 2) GSK 3) SWKS 4) INFY 5) KRE

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LRMR 2) VZ 3) ALKS 4) AMPH 5) T

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IYW 2) XLI 3) ITB 4) XLV 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Space +8.6% 2) Cyber Security +4.0% 3) Robotics +3.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• QDEL, FCEL, IRDM, OUST, VSAT, JACK, SWMR, AEVA, ASTS, CCXI, CBRS, SLS, CEPT, RKLB, OC, ALGM, RBLX, ARQQ, APPS, GLW, ACMR, MSTR, STRC, FDMT,J EIKN, VICR, AMAT, WDC, FBIN, MXL, BE, DSP, CABO, GILIT, CHTR, LBRDK, CHTR, VOR, PBF, BB, STX, TENB, SSSS, VPG, TSAT, LRCX, AXON, AIP, PTGRN, ATEX, KNSA, MKSI, PKX, PKE, HNGE, RIVN, BOT, MDA, PKE, BIDU, VIA, CMCSA, ABX, TTI, HSAI, CRTO, FIX, WBI, PRAX, LIF, RGNX, HQ, CLPT, TEM, XPEV, BLZE, AKTS, CTNM, SATA, OPRA, CYTK, DSGN, NTES, MNSO, UPST, TRIN, PLSE, KLIC, PSNL, CAMT, TTWO, CRDO, INNV, GENB, DGII, MAMA, DAKT, DEC, AMZN, VRDN, NBXG, ZD, OOMA and OMDA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DINO 2) PRMB 3) ERAS 4) BRR 5) CGON 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) QDEL 2) IRDM 3) VICR 4) ALGM 5) PRQR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) DRAM 3) QTEC 4) IGV 5) XBI

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (STZ)/3.20
• (NKE)/.12
• (PRGS)/1.49 

Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in March.
• The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for April is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.16% decline in March. 

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for June is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 62.7 in May.

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for May is estimated to fall to 7300K versus 7618K prior.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for June.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, (DVN) annual meeting, (NET) annual meeting and the (MDB) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -8.1
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 49.0% of Issues Advancing, 49.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.38 +132.9%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$189.4M
  
• 110 New 52-Week Highs, 45 New Lows
• 56.2% (-1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.8 -.8

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch. 
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 19.0% -11.0 percentage points
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 5.0% -4.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 3.0% -3.0 percentage points
• US Invades Iran before 2027 15.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.0 +1.8%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 69.0 -2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% +30.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 471.75 -11.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.2 +1.9%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.0 +1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.5 -29.0%
• Vix 17.8 -3.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -14.6%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• The US and Iran have agreed to stop attacking each other before peace talks resume this week over the Strait of Hormuz and other issues, paving the way to end days of tit-for-tat attacks that tested a fragile truce.    
• The world’s biggest public investors plan to shift more capital into private and less liquid assets amid rising risks to their traditional bond-and-stock portfolios, according to an industry survey.
• South Korea’s Samsung Group and SK Group are poised to announce as much as $1.3 trillion of investments over the next decade, Korea Economic Daily reports.
• The Richmond Fed chief was heartened by a rapid decline in gasoline prices in his district as the price of oil fell following a recent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. 
• The leverage that helped fuel the US stock rally is now becoming an increasing source of unease. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @Zerohedge 

• AI Demand, War, & Climate Pressure Push World Back To Nuclear.   
• 'Enough Is Enough': These Are The Charts That Goldman's Top Tech Specialist Is Watching.
• BREAKING: The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) says its forces have destroyed eight US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain, according to state broadcaster IRIB. 
• CLARIFICATION. Ahmad Vahidi is not interested, at this stage, in bringing down the Memorandum of Understanding. The IRGC understands that Iran urgently needs money, and Trump is well aware of the severe economic pressure facing the regime. At the same time, Tehran believes Trump has no interest in a new crisis ahead of the United States’ 250th Independence Day celebrations on July 4. At least for now, both sides share the same interest: neither wants to be the one that collapses the Memorandum of Understanding. 
• The receasefire 1 hour before futures open: The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other, according to a senior U.S. official, as the two sides plan to meet Tuesday in Qatar's capital to work out their dispute over the Strait of Hormuz.  
• Hormuz, Hawks, & Hyperscalers: Goldman Chief FX Strategist Sees Global Markets Transitioning From Macro To Micro Volatility.
• Hedge Funds Sold The Most Tech Stocks On Record Last Week Amid "Explosive" Volumes.
• The Long-Term Threat to the Memory Chip Boom Is Innovation.
• Hedge Fund CIO: Why Warsh "Deliberately Nailed Himself To The Cross" Of Restoring 2% Price Stability.
• Next Switzerland Talks 'Stalled' After Past Days' Flare-Up In US-Iran Fighting.
• "Navigation Extremely Limited": Top Shipper Warns IRGC Mines Complicate Hormuz Normalization.
• Are The Epstein Survivors Being Exploited Yet Again?       
• "The R2K is outperforming the S&P500 by ~1,240 bps thus far in 2026: if this holds it would mark the largest year of Small Cap outperformance since 2003" - GS.
• The Market's Message Is Clear: Goldman's Pasquariello Says "Those Cutting The Checks Are Going Too Far...".
• *PUTIN: OIL REFINERIES CAPACITIES ARE USED AT MAXIMUM: TASS. *PUTIN: CONSIDERING FULL EXPORT BAN OF DIESEL FUEL, WILL DISCUSS.
• This is Orwellian. The previous administration forced thousands of Haitians on a small city in Ohio, and now it's treated as base reality - as if the Haitians have always been there.   
• Update: The arrest of former Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Refining Affairs, Adnan Mohammed Hamoud al-Jumaili, has so far led not only to a wave of high-profile arrests, but also to the seizure of what may become one of the largest corruption stockpiles uncovered in post-2003 Iraq. So far, Iraqi authorities say they have seized more than 98 billion Iraqi dinars and $11 million in cash. Part of the money was reportedly buried four meters underground and hidden on farms. Courts have also frozen 70 residential and commercial properties and confiscated 21 modern vehicles. Investigators have also recovered nearly three kilograms of gold, an estimated 70 to 85 firearms, roughly 300 to 400 magazines, and dozens of ammunition crates, storage containers, and equipment cases. 
• Sadiq Khan Said There Were No Grooming Gangs In London; Police Investigating 4,000 Cases.
• *IRAN RESUMES DUBAI FLIGHTS FROM MONDAY: IRNA.
• Why Are Europeans Leaving Their Own Countries?
• IPO Market For AI Freezes Up While The Nuclear SPAC Market Runs Hot.
• *SAUDI ARAMCO HELICOPTER FALLS, ALL 14 PASSENGERS DEAD: SPA.
• Grok 4.5, based on our 1.5T V9 foundation model, with Cursor data added in supplemental training, is now in private beta at SpaceX & Tesla. Early evals show performance close to, perhaps exceeding Opus. RL is continuing to significantly improve the model, and the Grok Build harness gets better every day. Nice work by all those involved! Completely trained from scratch new models will be released by @SpaceX every month this year. -@ElonMusk.
• These Are The Car Brands With The Fewest Problems In 2026.
• Hartnett: If The Mag 7s Drop Any More, It Will Be A "Risk-Off" Summer.
• The Shooting In The Strait Ain't Over, But....
• Tehran Retaliates Against Bahrain, Kuwait After US Bombing Campaign Along Iranian Coast.
• Young Americans Expect To Buy A Home Later In Life (Or Not At All).
• Beijing's Trojan Horse Rolls Into Canada: National Security Expert Warns Carney's Chinese EV Deals Embeds Sabotage Risk.
• Newsom Scrubs '$100 Million' Slippery Slope From National 'Billionaire Tax' Pitch - And He's Coming After Inheritance Too.
• “South Korea has triggered five market-wide trading halts in 2026 — against only eleven such full-market halts since the system's 2000 inception. Nearly half of all market-wide halts this century have occurred this year. The rapid proliferation of highly leveraged single-stock ETFs on Samsung and SK Hynix has turned the KOSPI into a giant, self-reinforcing feedback loop.” - Goldman.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Another weekend escalation in Iran, another market shrug. 
• Stock futures are little changed, oil prices rise following U.S. attacks on Iran targets over the weekend: Live updates.
• Debt, AI boom and economic fragilities raise global risks, BIS says

• @MarioNawful

• When Ali al-Zaidi became Iraq's new PM in May, many assumed he would simply become another Iranian-influenced caretaker in the country's long cycle of corruption and outside influence. Instead, Baghdad woke up today to something almost nobody expected; a sweeping anti-corruption crackdown targeting senior officials, political figures, and billions of dollars in alleged fraud. It's got them so spooked that many politicians are trying to flee the country. The timing of the crackdown is also significant. 
• STUNNING RESCUE: A young man is pulled out after being buried under rubble for days in La Guaira, Venezuela. The boy can be heard sobbing tears of joy and relief after being rescued with only a few visible injuries. Miracles do happen! (video) 

• @EricLDaugh

• JUST IN: Scott Presler reveals that if the U.S. Senate doesn’t pass the SAVE America Act by August 8th, IT CAN’T TAKE EFFECT FOR THE MIDTERMS. “The Senate returns from vacation on July 13th. The Senate goes on vacation — again — beginning August 8th.” “You should be calling & emailing your Senators every single day.” — @ScottPresler. This is why the Senate should’ve been FIGHTING for the past several months! Call off recess! (video)
• JUST IN — SPENCER PRATT WARNS AMERICA: “[Communists] have infiltrated all our institutions and created a breakaway network of NGOs that launder your tax dollars to finance the revolution, rig elections, and destroy the pillars of functional society.” “Are you listening now?” @spencerpratt Wake up! Destroy communism in America permanently.  

• @RNCResearch

• Georgia Democrat Raphael Warnock embraces policies like abolishing prisons, police, and borders. CNN: Are you worried about the impact that these positions could have on the Democrat Party's ability to win a majority? WARNOCK: “We are a big tent party”. (video)
• Jon Ossoff vows to impeach President Trump if reelected. Ossoff has no real plan to help Georgians, all he wants to do is stop President Trump. (video) 

• @JoeLange

• Can you smell the PANIC coming from the BUSH FAMILY right now? Breaking news: “BAGHDAD: Iraqi authorities arrested 47 officials, including members of parliament, on Sunday as part of an anti-graft campaign in the corruption-plagued country, state media reported.” “Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Al-Zaidi, who recently took office with the blessing of the United States, has made two main vows: to fight corruption and to ensure a state monopoly on weapons.”...

• @zoomnewskrd

• Footage released by Iraqi local media reportedly shows more than 20 billion Iraqi dinars in cash and quantities of gold allegedly seized from the home of Iraqi MP Alia Nassif during Sunday's anti-corruption crackdown. Nassif was reportedly arrested alongside her son, Sajjad, who served as security director in the office of former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani. (video)

• @TeamOverhaulGA

• BOTTOMS: "Imagine what we could accomplish with a [Democrat] Governor and two [Democrat] Senators." We can imagine: Higher taxes, open borders, 9% inflation, and men in women's sports. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Europe is starting to ban A/C for 2 reasons: 1. To kill old people with heat stroke who use up all the tax dollars in socialized medicine. 2. To make everyone feel hot and miserable so the “global warming” scam feels more real and they can pass more tax increases. These globalist elites are truly evil. 

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.80 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%.
• Crude Oil 69.90/bbl. +.9%
• Gold 4,073.90 USD/t oz. -.54%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.40 +.07%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.7 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 119.7 +.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.38% +1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.86% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 -.3%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.
• S&P 500 futures +.54%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.54%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by healthcare and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% Net Long heading into the week.