Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,664.5 -1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 52,576.9 -1.9%

• NASDAQ 26,363.6 -.8%

• Russell 2000 2,906.9 -2.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 18,651.9 -1.5%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 317.3 -3.8%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 37.4 +.1%

• Wilshire 5000 76,671.6 -1.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,930.3 -.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,507.0 -1.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 922.7 -1.5%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 270.2 -.4% 
  

• NYSE Technology 9,560.1 +2.0%

• Transports 20,593.4 -.9%

• Utilities 1,071.6 -1.0%

• MSCI Europe Banks 138.3 -1.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 67.9 +.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 265.8 +.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 137.5 +.5%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 618,987 -1.0%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 -5.6%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -918 -1,347

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.0 -.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 129,911 +5.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,921,085 +.8%

• Total Put/Call .83 +5.1%

• OEX Put/Call .71 unch.

• ISE Sentiment n/a

• NYSE Arms 1.13 +1.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 132.4 +1.5%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -11.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +23.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 15.8 +9.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .53 -7.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.3 +10.1%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.98 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.16 +3.0%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,834.5 -.2%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 46.0 -9.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.973 Trillion -.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.138 Million

• AAII % Bulls 38.0 -4.3%

• AAII % Bears 39.3 +4.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 35.0 (FEAR) -7.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 429.1 +3.0%

• Crude Oil 100.20/bbl. +8.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 331.9 +4.7%

• Natural Gas 2.83 -4.0%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 84.8 USD/Megawatt +1.3% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 80.30 euros/megawatt-hour +10.1%
  

• Heating Oil 497.2 +8.1% 
• Newcastle Coal 147.3 (1,000/metric ton) -3.8%

• Gold 4,345.9 -1.6%
• Silver 64.25 -2.6%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 178.1 -1.5%

• Copper 654.4 -1.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 392.50 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.3 USD/Metric Tonne -4.3%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 23,150.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.08(price per million tokens) +11.0% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 49.4 -.2%  

• CME Lumber 569.0 -.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,597.2 -1.4%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 345.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 452.50 USD/Short Ton +4.1%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.4% -30.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.5 -2.2 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.27 +8.3%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 83.65 -50.3% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 71.0 +2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 725.9 +252.9%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 +.4
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +53.1% -.1 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.40 +1.80:  Growth Rate +22.2% +.7 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.6% -1.0 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 977.65 +6.17: Growth Rate +45.6% +.9 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.0 +2.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 74.5 -2.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.40 -2.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 13.7%(-26.9 percentage points) chance of no change, 86.3%(+26.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 9/16

• US Dollar Index 99.1 +.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,940.2 +.2%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 77,113 -3.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 204.3 -1.7%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.21 -.8%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 32.75 -8.5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.97% +19.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.05% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.693 Trillion +.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.351 Billion +4.9%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.6 -1.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 177.4 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 85.0 +4.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.9 +.6%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.50 -1.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 110.6 -7.6%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.8 +3.3%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.2 -.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.3 +.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.2%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 121.9 -.2%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.5% +10.0 basis points
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.4% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% -30.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% +20.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.40% unch.: CPI YoY +3.43% +5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +28.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 40.5 +20.0 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.5 +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.25 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.0 +2.0% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.5 -2.5%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 96.0 -1.0%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 432.7 -1.7% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 218.0 +11.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.3 +3.2%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 138.9 +1.5%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 115.0 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 555.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .45 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.4% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,4436.9B -.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 206,000 -.7%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.7 unch.

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.81% +4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 240,600 -2.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.30% -40.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +2.0% -21.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $140.5M -21.9%

• Nationwide Gas $4.30/gallon +.15/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,521.0 +3.0%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,476.3/40 ft Box +.3%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,862.2 +1.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 325.0 +18.2%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 100.0 -5.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 299,148 -1.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,420,875 +15.4% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.6 -2.0 points
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% -2.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value -2.3%

Leading Sectors

• Semis +4.7%

• Networking +4.0%
• Computer Hardware +3.5%

• Shipping +2.8%
  

• Energy +2.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -4.7%

• Pharma -4.7%
  

• Software -5.0%

• Restaurants -5.0%
  

• Medical Equipment -5.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (15)

• ACVA, FEIM, ODD, ATEC, SWMR, HPE, DELL, SWKS, HPQ, HDB, NMAX, TEN, MTN, QRVO and ICLR

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (25)

• TTAN, MLTX, BKV, CPRT, MLYS, PZZA, AVTX, TYRA, GPRK, CHWY, APAM, TMDX, HROW, XE, FTH, LEU, RCUS, DBVT, OKLO, BCAT, ALM, CADL, OMDA and SLS

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +9 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (PLAY)/.18

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Morgan Stanley Industrials Conference, Truist Tech Symposium, Goldman Sachs Consumer/Retail Conference, AI Infra Summit, Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, (DECK) annual meeting and the Oppenheimer Fintech Leaders Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Crude Oil 102.50/bbl. unch. 
• Gold 4,370.0 USD/t oz. -.85%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.26 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.21 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.6 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.96% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.06% +6.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.0 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.24%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.04%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Mideast War Escalation Worries, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.9 +2.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.2 -.9% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 +2.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 140.2 +1.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.2 -1.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.2 -.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 75.60 -.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.5 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +53.2% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 400.63 +.37:  Growth Rate +22.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +131.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 977.09 +1.07: Growth Rate +45.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 -1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 39.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.0 -3.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 82.0 euros/megawatt-hour +3.4%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.7 -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.4% -30.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.95% +11.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.58 +12.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 55.3% (+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.9%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,370 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -142 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -37 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Nuclear -3.7% 2) Gold & Silver -3.5% 3) Homebuilding -2.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WHR, SITE, LULU, DRVN, SN, SBAC, SQM, OCTV, FTAI, ARCT, BIRK, SHOE, ENB, M, TGLS, LH, LEN, BRSL, BLDR, PSLV, CIFR, VRT, CHYM, USAR, BHP, FRVO, DYN, RCUS, ASMB, CRI, TECK, BKR, SCCO, FCX, ANRO, LECO, XE, LEU, PURR, RELY, DFH, ERO, VCX, REAX, AXGN, COO, BHVN, AEO and NAVN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ITB 2) XLY 3) RCL 4) KC 5) MXL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AEO 2) BHVN 3) CCOI 4) AARD 5) FCX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) XLK 3) XLY 4) XLP 5) DRAM

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume