Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +300 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZO)/36.22
• (SKY)/.62
• (CSW)/2.41 
• (VSAT)/-.30 

After the Close: 

• (BOX)/.36
• (MOD)/1.55
• (SMTC)/.45
• (SQM)/1.57
• (ZS)/1.01 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April.
• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for May.  

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Feb.
• The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.05% decline in Feb. 

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May is estimated to fall to 92.0 versus 92.8 in April. 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2Y T-Note auction, M2 Money Supply MoM for April, ADP Weekly Employment Change, TD Cowen Tech/Media/Telecom Conference, Jefferies Software/Internet/AI Conference, KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference, (MRK) annual meeting and the BofA Power/Utilities/Clean Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Japan’s key inflation gauge slowed by more than forecast as government steps to ease costs of living offset the impact from a weak yen and elevated energy prices. 
• Iraq formed a high-level committee to investigate drone attacks on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as the new Iraqi prime minister appears to align with US President Donald Trump’s goal of limiting Iran’s influence. 
• If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t open by August, there may be a risk of a recession rivaling the great financial crisis. 
• Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she’ll call a referendum on whether the energy-rich province should stay in Canada or start a legal process that could eventually lead to its independence.
• Cursor Hits $3 Billion Annual Sales Rate Ahead of SpaceX Deal. 
• President Trump’s allies and some administration officials have been telling the president publicly and privately that new Fed chair Kevin Warsh may not be able to deliver rate cuts right away. 
• Take-Two confirmed a Nov. 19 release date for Grand Theft Auto VI, expected to be one of the biggest video-game titles ever. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• It's Not Iran Trapping Ships In The Hormuz, It's The Insurance Risk. 
• “We Must Leap Forward Into New Energy” - Canaccord’s Inaugural Nuclear Nexus Conference. 
• Electric Bills Could Be 2026 Election Shocker.
• Try to build as much code as possible over the next few months. The prices you are seeing now for AI will probably not last too long.
• BREAKING: Muhammad Omar, the alleged fraudster who FLED from law enforcement in Minnesota earlier today, has been CAPTURED, per @FBIDirectorKash. GREAT job picking up this guy so quickly, FBI. Omar has been indicted for stealing over $3 MILLION in a Home Healthcare fraud scheme. Justice is being served. (video)  
• The DNC Finally Releases Its 2024 Autopsy, And It's A Total Whitewash.
• American Freight Revival Enters Next Phase As Illegal Alien Trucker Chaos Continues.
• JUST IN: SpaceX pledges to cover all power grid infrastructure upgrade costs associated with its data centers so those costs are not passed on to local households, per its S-1 filing. Soon every hyperscaler will be forced to do the same.  
• Turkey Markets Crash After Court Unseats Opposition Head In Latest Erdogan Power Grab.
• We Are 6 Months From Global Food Shortages Because Farmers Are Facing A Quadruple Whammy Crisis.
• Nvidia's Vera Rubin Rack Will Cost $7.8MM, Double A Blackwell Rack: Here's What's Behind The Soaring Price.
• Everyone is focusing on the soaring memory cost in the Vera Rubin rack. Here is the real shocker. US power grid can barely keep up with the current setup.
• Daily Wire Names New CEO As Audience, Revenue Challenges Mount.     
• US Deploys Aircraft Carrier To Caribbean As Trump Admin Pressures Cuba.
• OpenAI plans to file for IPO confidentially as soon as Friday: CNBC.
• No Deal Reached, Amid 'Fabricated' Mideast Media Reports As Trump Presses Nuclear Issue & Iran President Says 'Won't Back Down'.
• 'Deal Or No Deal': Markets Swing Wildly As Nukes & Nvidia Narratives Dominate.   

• @CNBC

• President Donald Trump on Thursday said he postponed an upcoming signing ceremony for his administration’s much-anticipated executive order on the artificial intelligence industry. The event, which was set for later Thursday afternoon, was delayed “because I didn’t like certain aspects of it,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to open higher as investors assess U.S.-Iran peace deal diplomacy.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures rise slightly as S&P 500 looks toward another winning week: Live updates.
• Job training for robots: How China is getting machines ready to join the workforce.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Workday, Estee Lauder, Zoom, Take-Two and more.
• Workday jumps 10% as it bumps up margin forecast on AI strength.      
• Traders think this legacy tech stock is the ultimate quantum play. 

• @TheTranscript 

•  Zoom CEO @ericsyuan: "FY27 is off to a good start, continuing the momentum from FY26. Q1 revenue grew 5.5%, exceeding the high end of our guidance and among our best growth rates in recent years". $ZM: +7% AH.
• $WDAY Workday CFO: "Subscription revenue in Q1 was $2.354 billion, up 14%. Professional services revenue was $188 million, resulting in total revenue of $2.542 billion, growth of 13%...12-month subscription revenue backlog, or cRPO, was $8.81 billion at the end of Q1, growing 15.5%. This was driven by continued customer expansion - bolstered by our AI solutions - and growth from new customers."
• Workday CEO: "We had a great Q1, and it makes one thing clear: Workday is ready for this AI moment. Our core business is strong, our AI strategy is working, and we're moving with the speed and focus required to lead," $WDAY: +9% AH.
• Ross Stores CEO: "We achieved outstanding sales and earnings results in the first quarter...Momentum was solid throughout the quarter, with broad-based strength across the business. Customer traffic was the primary driver of the strong sales trend... $ROST: +5% AH.

• @WallStEngine

• $DECK Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.12B (Est. $1.09B) ; +10% YoY. EPS: $0.96 (Est. $0.83). HOKA Sales: $671.2M; +14.5% YoY. UGG Sales: $408.6M; +9.2% YoY. DTC Comparable Sales: +8.2%. FY27 Guide: Revenue: $5.86B-$5.91B (Est. $5.82B). EPS: $7.30-$7.45 (Est. $7.34). Gross Margin: ~56.5%. Operating Margin: ~21.5%. HOKA: Low-double-digit % growth. UGG: Mid-single-digit % growth.
• $TTWO Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.68B (Est. $1.57B) EPS: -$0.32 Recurrent Consumer Spending: +12%, 81% of revenue Net Bookings from RCS: +7%, 82% of total bookings. GTA VI Launch Date: November 19, 2026. 

• @ShadowofEzra

• Dan Merrell, the contractor hired to pave over Charlie Kirk’s assassination scene, says he received “the call” under an emergency order to cover the area immediately. Merrell claims the Utah governor and Kash Patel’s FBI wanted the crime scene paved over without delay. "This is above our pay grade... the governor and the FBI said they want this by Monday." (video)

• @Nicksortor

• JUST IN: NASCAR legend Kyle Busch has DlED at the age of 41 following a hospitalization with a “severe illness”. In-race communications from a recent race, seen below, show Busch requesting a doctor due to a “sinus cold”. 41 is FAR too young. Pray for the Busch family. (video)
• BREAKING: John Thune will be sending the Senate home EARLY, and they’ll stay home until JUNE. This guy is a DISGRACE. That means NO ICE / CBP funding, and NO SAVE America Act until at LEAST next month. THUNE NEEDS TO BE REMOVED! (video) 

• @EricLDaugh

• HOLY SMOKES. It appears Leader John Thune and other Senate Republicans are moving to KILL President Trump's anti-weaponization fund — which would rectify the persecution under Biden's DOJ. Now Thune sent senators home until June, MISSING Trump's deadline for reconciliation. WE ARE BEING BETRAYED! (video)

• @mattvanswol

• Just so we are clear on something... Leader Thune appears to be a Democrat. He has: a) Refused to pass the SAVE Act. b) Refused to fund ICE / Border Patrol. c) Blocks Trump's recess appointments. d) NOW TAKES A 10-DAY VACATION?!!!!! He is either a Democrat, corrupt, or both.
• Just a reminder that Lindsey Graham lives 90 minutes from my doorstep... …and he NEVER came to visit us in Western North Carolina a SINGLE TIME after Hurricane Helene. Seriously, not even once. He has flown to Ukraine NINE TIMES and tries to visit Israel “every 2 weeks”… (video)

• @C_3C_3

• John Thune isn’t stupid or weak. He knows exactly what he’s doing. You don’t rise to Senate Majority Leader if you’re stupid or weak. He’s cunning. He’s traitorous. He is doing exactly what his masters want him to do. The actions of a traitor. Worse than Benedict Arnold.

• @unusual_whales

• BREAKING: RJ Reynolds, one of the largest U.S. tobacco companies and maker of Camel and Newport cigarettes, donated $5 million to Trump. Days later, company executives reportedly met with him at Mar-a-Lago to push for looser flavored vape regulations, after which the FDA changed its policy, per NYT.

• @TeamOverhaulGA

• WATCH: Derek Dooley hints that he would support letting illegal aliens stay— says he is "sensitive to both sides of the issue": "They want to feel like they don't have to look over their shoulders every 5 minutes and worry about us taking them out of the country." (video)

• @Laralogan  

• Hmmmmm. (pic)

• @lsferguson

• I wish President Trump would go scorched earth after RINO's like Lankford like he did Massie and Boebert. It's puzzling why he doesn't. It's also puzzling why Oklahoma, a deep red state, has RINO problems. (pic)

• @DudeWhoInvests

• Why are politicians buying the living shit out of ServiceNow $NOW stock?!?! (graph)

• @Healthranger

• CISA was compromised. Election security is essentially non-existent.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.25 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Crude Oil 97.94/bbl. +1.7% 
• Gold 4,528.9 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.30 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.7 +.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.57% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.03% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.4 -.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.90%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.20%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.27%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.1 -.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.7 -.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 -4.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.0 unch.
• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.3 unch.
• Israel Sovereign CDS 60.3 -2.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.1 -1.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.0 +.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -82.4 -29.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.4 -.8
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) +27.5% +2.6 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 356.43 +.43:  Growth Rate +21.5% -7.0 percentage points, P/E 20.8 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.40% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% +5.1 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 870.01 +.95: Growth Rate +119.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 -1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 49.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 183.6 -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.4% +.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.3% +30.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.57% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.86 -5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 84.8% (-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 63.9%(-10.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +500 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +55 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +290 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.2% 2) Oil Service -1.5% 3) Software -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AHR, NTES, BILI, IMVT, DE, GDS, MTDR, BEKE, WMT and INTU

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SOLS 2) ABCL 3) INTU 4) XLB 5) TIGR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OFIX 2) GOSS 3) DE 4) IBRX 5) RKLB

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) SMH 3) XOP 4) GDXJ 5) XME

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +9.0% 2) Alt Energy +5.1% 3) Airlines +4.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• INFQ, QBTS, RGTI, FCEL, OPTX, APLD, DXYZ, WOLF, BIRK, AAP, WYFI, BKKT, ENPH, DUOT, NBIS, SPOT, RL, GFS, SEDG, ARM, OUST, MRAM, IONQ, BE, VELO, IBM, OCS, MP, ENS, RLAY, KURA, IREN, GTX, ALMU, ASST, USAR, NVTS, WGS, CMPS, SIRI, BBAR, BMRN, WSM, AMWD, CSIQ, SCVL, AIAI, IMNM, CRWV, STEP, SHAZ, GRRR, CRVS, GENB, VSH, FRPT, CRML, QCOM, RXO, HIMX, SKYT, FSLR, CMCO, LOMA, PENG, W, GGAL, LPTH, EMN, F, ABVX, NDSN, JBS, ASTS, BRSL, AAL, NU, ZVRA, GH, ANET, HAW, SSSS, TEO, HAE, VPG, BAP, ELF, LION, ZVRA and ETON

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XRT 2) BTU 3) INTU 4) CMCSA 5) XHB 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APLD 2) IBM 3) WSM 4) AAP 5) RL 

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) ARKK 3) NASA 4) XLF 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume