Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Coal -3.1% 2) Energy -2.2% 3) Utilities -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CVX, LYB, EPD, FCFS, DVN, OKE, IPI, OXY, SD, BIIB, MNR, DEC, LNG, APA, AR, MEOH, TALO, INR, CNR, LXU, CF, MKC, UL, VG, BTU, CEG and PRGS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SEI 2) MTUM 3) TE 4) BANC 5) SVC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IT 2) TE 3) PEPG 4) BSX 5) COTY

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) FTXO 3) IGV 4) IYF 5) SOXX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +3.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +6.5% 2) Airlines +5.5% 3) Semis +5.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• APLS, CNTA, AEHR, FLY, AGIO, VOR, KOD, MLYS, ALKS, ANRO, IMNM, ELE, SLNO, CTGO, SRRK, CENX, RYTM, XPEL, COGT, AKTS, ETON, CLDX, U, SHC, NAVN, NAMS, ORKA, META, AXTI, NN, CEPU, UBS, DLO, LASR, TKO, ELVN, ESE, ELPC, FDS, ETY, VRDN, BWLP, BSAC, HLIO, CSQ, AERO, TEO, SNX, CHY and RACE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) KOPN 2) FEZ 3) SPCE 4) AMTM 5) SGHC 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APLS 2) CNTA 3) SPCE 4) NBIS 5) ALK

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLB 3) FXN 4) XLU 5) IYK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CALM)/.70
• (CAG)/.40
• (LW)/.61
• (MSM)/.84
• (UNF)/1.19 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to fall to 40K versus 63K in Feb. 

8:30 am EST 

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -.2% decline in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in Jan.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Jan. 

9:45 am EST

• S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for March final reading.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing  for March is estimated to fall to 52.3 versus 52.4 in Feb.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 73.8 versus 70.5 in Feb.
• Business Inventories for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Dec.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,257,000 barrels versus a +6,926,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -3,098,670 barrels versus a -2,593,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +118,500 barrels versus a +3,032,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.54% versus a +1.5% gain prior.

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to rise to 15.86M versus 15.75M in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 +1.9
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 77.9% of Issues Advancing, 20.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .84 -9.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$290.9M
  
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 64 New Lows
• 45.4% (+4.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.4 +4.5

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 87.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% unch.
• US forces enter Iran by April 30th 60.0% -8.0 percentage points
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 44.0% +6.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.1 +.7%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 562.0 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.6 +1.7%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 132.2 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 13.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 16.7 -27.5%
  
• Vix 27.5 -10.3%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.01 -1.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Iran has hit a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker in the anchorage area of Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and starting a fire on board, state-run Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said. 
• The dollar is on track for its best month since September 2022 as war in the Middle East upends energy markets, buffets economic forecasts, and sends investors rushing to the world’s primary reserve currency.
• As investors brace for a protracted conflict in the Middle East, they’re electing to sell the technology stocks that have been among the market’s biggest winners in recent months.      
• A former Trump aide is initiating a $100 million campaign to promote the administration’s pro-AI agenda during the 2026 midterm elections.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump Reportedly Told Aides To End War Without Reopening Hormuz, Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker. 
• Apparently, bunker-buster bombs have managed to penetrate the missile base in Isfahan, and secondary explosions are continuing. 
• Preparation fire before ground operation. The Iranian front observes a certain lull (if one can call it that). All attention focuses on preparations for a ground operation by the US Armed Forces. As of the end of the previous day, the amphibious assault group led by the USS Tripoli was located 900 km northwest of the Chagos Archipelago. While everything has devolved into mutual strikes, which have become routine (Americans together with Israel strike Iran, while Iranians respond with attacks on Persian Gulf countries and Israel), one can assess the efforts the Americans and Israelis invested in this operation.
• US Firm Boosts Production Of Precision Anti-Drone Systems. 
• "People briefed on intelligence assessments said Mr. Trump’s frustration reflected the inability of the current Iranian government to coordinate a response and make a decision about the American peace proposals." 
• Even Erik Prince Warns Iran Will "Burn It Down" - Boots On The Ground Could Mean "Burning American Warships".
• BREAKING: Citizens from Isfahan are reporting HEAVY EXPLOSIONS a short time ago. What's going on there?! (video)
• BREAKING: The UAE is pushing hard for Trump to order a US ground invasion of Iran, a Gulf diplomat tells AP, with Kuwait and Bahrain also supporting such an operation.
• The market is looking for a bottom, but price, flows, and macro all say it’s not here.
• *KUWAIT RESIDENTS ISSUED `EXTREME' THREAT ALERT: CIVIL DEFENSE.
• Oil Spikes As Iran Strikes Fully-Laden Kuwaiti Oil Tanker.
• *IRAN STRIKE HITS KUWAITI CRUDE CARRIER IN DUBAI PORT, KPC SAYS. *IRAN WARNS US TROOPS FACE DEATH IF SENT TO KHARG ISLAND: MEHR.    
• BREAKING | At this moment, 12 A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft are being transferred from Bangor Air Base in the United States to RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, supported by aerial refueling tankers. It appears that the United States may soon initiate a ground operation in Iran, and additional attack aircraft are being deployed for this purpose — first to the UK, and then likely onward to the Middle East.
• More than 1,100 airstrikes within just 24 hours targeted Tehran, hitting camps, warehouses, factories, infrastructure, and government headquarters. Observers suggest that these intense and heavy strikes may be followed by a ground intervention.
• Gulf LNG Crisis Set To 'Make Coal Great Again'.  
• *NETANYAHU: IRAN WAR PAST HALFWAY IN TERMS OF MISSIONS, NOT TIME.
• Morgan Stanley: "We downgrade global equities to EW from OW and take UST and Cash to OW from EW. Uncertainty around magnitude and duration of oil supply disruption means outcomes for risk assets have become increasingly asymmetrical.".
• Goldman: "Overall desk is a 2 out of 10 in terms of activity levels with a -5% sell skew". total paralysis.
• Just Another Manic Monday As Narrative Shifts From Stone-Age Fears To Stimmy-Watch Cheers.    

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump is doubling down on rhetoric to end the Iran. 
• Asia-Pacific markets set to fall as U.S. crude oil settles above $100 for first time since 2022.
• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.   
• Stock futures are little changed as S&P 500 creeps closer to correction territory: Live updates. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -% to -.% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.25 -.75 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 54.75 ucnh.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Crude Oil 101.8/bbl. -1.0% 
• Gold 4,626.3 USD/t oz. +1.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.65 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.2 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.2 -1.3%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% -2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.72% -7.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.2 -3.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.66%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.81%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.83%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higerh and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Surging Inflation Worries, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.2 -.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.3 +2.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .49 +4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.0 -.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 205.4 +4.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 81.2 +.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.3 -.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -2.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.0 +4.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 47.8 +.6 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(12 of 500 reporting) +96.5% -.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.39 +1.06:  Growth Rate +20.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.6
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 790.41 +2.95: Growth Rate +98.7% +.8 percentage point, P/E 16.9 -.8 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .02 -25.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 51.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch. 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 167.0 +1.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.8 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.1% +1.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.0% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.34% -9.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.31 +9.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 93.9% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 90.0%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -780 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: Market Neutral