Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,401.1 -2.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,417.3 -.6%

• NASDAQ 24,630.0 -3.1%

• Russell 2000 2,754.6 -2.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,895.0 -4.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 263.0 -5.4%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 31.2 -5.3%

• Wilshire 5000 72,909.1 -2.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,508.9 -4.8%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,538.2 -.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 1,014.7 +1.2%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 257.4 -1.4% 
  

• NYSE Technology 8,068.9 -8.1%

• Transports 19,816.2 -2.4%

• Utilities 1,102.4 -.8%

• MSCI Europe Banks 126.1 +4.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 59.38 -2.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 260.5 -.02%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 136.2 -.06%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 612,174 -.3%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +182.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,012 -941

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -10.2 +11.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 74,343 -16.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,886,280 +2.8%

• Total Put/Call .92 +1.1%

• OEX Put/Call .65 +72.0%

• Equity Put/Call .72 -13.3%

• NYSE Arms .99 +7.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 113.50 -9.2%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 -54.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .69 -42.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 24.9 +31.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.01 +27.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 19.1 +25.3%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.40 -3.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.82 -.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,013.9 -4.0%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 47.0 +2.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $8.016 Trillion +1.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$7.100 Million

• AAII % Bulls 34.1 -9.8%

• AAII % Bears 48.4 +16.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (Moved to EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -2.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 390.54 -5.1%

• Crude Oil 99.90/bbl. -12.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 277.7 -11.4%

• Natural Gas 2.99 +4.8%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 90.6 USD/Megawatt +7.4% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 103.9 euros/megawatt-hour +10.2%
  

• Heating Oil 433.90 -10.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 141.1 (1,000/metric ton) -7.0%

• Gold 4,067.0 +5.0%
• Silver 52.0 +6.0%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 170.64 -1.5%

• Copper 626.5 -4.1%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 406.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 14,975.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .86(price per million tokens) -3.7% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 53.12 unch.

• CME Lumber 512.0 -1.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,444.6 -3.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 345.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 430.5 USD/Short Ton -1.0%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.4% +20.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.3 +1.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.47 +17.6%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 97.7 -41.0% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 83.0 +14.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 45.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 168.2 -33.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(440 of 500 reporting) +27.0% -2.4 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 415.59 +2.19:  Growth Rate +26.8% +.9 percentage point, P/E 17.9 -.5
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% -6.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% -6.3 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,103.91 +6.84: Growth Rate +64.4% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 15.1 -1.0

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.8 +17.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.0 -5.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.4 +4.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 20.9%(-8.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 79.1%(+8.4 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 12/9

• US Dollar Index 102.26 +.28%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,917.8 -.27%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 75,631 -2.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 202.7 +.4%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.13 +.9%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 33.75 unch.

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.85% -8.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.84% -1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.701 Trillion +.04%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $9.983 Billion +5.1%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.68 +.02%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 187.7 -3.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 107.0 -12.0 basis points
• France Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 90.60 -6.7% 
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.5 -1.8%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.9 -4.4%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 150.2 +3.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 57.0 -7.8%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.1 -2.3%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.2 -3.6%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.48 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 115.76 +1.0%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.4% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.9% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.9% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.20% unch.: CPI YoY +3.74% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.00 -59.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -11.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 19.75 +4.0 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.0 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 61.5 -1.0% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.7 +1.4%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 146.0 +47.7%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 475.0 +.8% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 294.0 +23.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 70.7 -4.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 164.4 -3.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 120.0 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 567.0 +9.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .53 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.7% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,503.3B +.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 194,750 -1.1%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.5 +.7%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.30% -7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 192,600 -1.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +9.80% +20.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +7.0% -5.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $140.8M -1.3%

• Nationwide Gas $4.07/gallon -.14/gallon 
• Nationwide Diesel $6.23/gallon -.09/gallon 

• Baltic Dry Index 2,740.0 +1.0%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,389.0/40 ft Box -.9%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,924.7 +2.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 400.0 -20.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 97.8 +8.7%

• Rail Freight Carloads 280,264 -7.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,610,670 +54.8% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.4 +.1 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -6.3%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +11.8%

• Airlines +9.1%
• Medical Equipment +6.7%

• Video Gaming +6.4%
  

• Social Media +5.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -11.0%

• Oil Service -11.5%
  

• Energy -12.8%

• Computer Hardware -14.3%
  

• AI/Innovation -14.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (95)

• FROG, KRMN, FLY, LASR, TMDX, QNT, LYNX, FLGT, CYRX, ETON, CGON, SLVM, LEU, IONQ, RGTI, EWTX, DNA, PPTA, EXTR, ZLAB, STEP, XERS, ADUR, AEVA, RIOT, COMP, LION, HSAI, PVLA, ARDT, TRUP, APP, ONT, ELAN, BETA, ONT, BKSY, ATEN, SPHR, ZVRA, RVMD, ACHC, ELF, U, GRDN, OUST, TPC, FOXF, HYMC, PAR, WSC, CSIQ, SKM, IMVT, JKS, REF, FNF, SARO, XPEV, RCEL, WYNN, ROIV, PCTY, ONC, ARHS, HUM, AAUC, IAG, JAN, STGW, TECX, ODTX, BILL, AU, IBN, ITT, LI, SG, MAT, ICUI, BIP, AERO, BIPC, AMPH, NVRI, KT, VCEL, VNT, BEN and PH 

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (74)

• PAGP, MDGL, BTI, FIGS, PAA, CPT, CVSA, BSM, HUBS, ROCK, LYV, PBH, SFM, AFRM, DOX, APEI, CVI, FRNM, SLDE, SAP, HURN, LMND, CAVA, LOPE, URGN, DNOW, LTGO, LYTS, ARQT, CSV, OUT, MH, CRSR, ARQT, KE, AMSC, CAI, ROOT, CSTL, INOD, ZD, INGR, CLMT, SCSC, PNTG, TNDM, STRA, WLDN, GMED, RIGL, ASTH, REAX, MCHP, NTRA, NMIH, TILE, TEAM, WK, FIVN, ARLO, OMDA, AXON, HLIO, BL, AORT, AMN, DKNG, KRUS, IRTC, IRTC and PRAA

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Modestly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +756 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -84 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +5 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AAON)/.57
• (AMG)/8.79
• (B)/.79
• (CNH)/.10
• (CEG)/3.90
• (NRG)/3.35 

After the Close: 

• (ACHR)/-.34
• (ASTS)/-.42
• (ETD)/.26
• (HRB)/-1.43
• (HIMS)/.06
• (LIF)/.16
• (OXY)/1.45
• (ONTO)/2.30
• (QLYS)/1.96
• (RKLB)/-.07
• (SANM)/3.27
• (TTWO)/.97
• (TDW)/.72 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. 

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1Yr Inflation Expectations Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to +3.78% versus +3.9% in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 3Y T-Note auction, Guggenheim Healthcare Innovation Conference, Stifel Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, (ALB) investor meeting and the RBC Precious Metals Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -7.0% to -2.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +1.0 basis point.   
• China Sovereign CDS 36.75 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%. 
• Crude Oil 91.10/bbl. +.7%. 
• Gold 4,077.0 USD/t oz. -.90%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.16 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.22 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 111.90 -2.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.84% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82% -6.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.90%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.60%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on "Blue Wave" Policy Ramification Second Thoughts, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Slowdown Fears, Forced Selling Rumors, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.9 +5.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.75 -2.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -7.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.1 -.1% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.9 +3.8% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.8 +3.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.7 +2.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -2.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(419 of 500 reporting) +27.8% -.8 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 415.20 +.22:  Growth Rate +26.6% unch., P/E 17.9 -.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,102.95 +.59: Growth Rate +64.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.3 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .95 +21.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 35.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.6 -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 90.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.1% -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.83% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 63.2% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 47.8%(+11.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2,970 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -261 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -48 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -6.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation -11.6% 2) Space -10.2% 3) Alt Energy -7.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BLLN, TH, GOOD, FUTU, CCJ, MGRC, WES, DDOG, PYTM, BWXT, TDY, BRCB, WBI, VST, MP, RYTM, ETN, MPWR, IBKR, ENTG, PAYC, FCX, TXN, VECO, ASML, MOD, ECG, YPF, GEV, ZGN, CNR, RVMD, TSEM, CAVA, AMSC, EME, GFS, MWH, CVSA, QCOM, URGN, SANM, ECHO, TSM, GDS, PSIX, RDVT, CGNX, AXON, CORZ, LB, STM, Z, MCHP, LMND, SEI, TSLA, SKHY, SITM, TER, FOUR, ARM, CLS, CRWV, LSPD, PWR, GLW, CMCO, COHR, NVT, MELI, FLEX, NGVT, SIMO, STRL, ACMR, EXPE, DOCN, ROK, CYTK, WMS, MRVL, BRVE, POWL, VRT, CIEN, IESC, ASTS, TTMI, PNTG, UMC, AMD, MU, NBIS, TTAM, APLD, PBH, KELYA, IREN, BE, LOPE, SHOO, STRA, POWI, FPS, ROOT, ASX, MTSI, MBUU, COHU, AAOI, SNDK, CSV, GIL, CPS, MXL, LGN, ARQT, BROS, ROAD, DAVE, RELY, ROCK, FSLY and VCYT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLV 2) LAES 3) KKR 4) VXX 5) EWT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) AMD 3) TSLA 4) URGN 5) STVN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) IXN 5) MISL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume