Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,234.0 +1.0%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 49,564.0 +.7%

• NASDAQ 25,130.8 +1.1%

• Russell 2000 2,809.4 +.9%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,412.0 +1.1%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 288.9 -.7%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 34.31 +.6%

• Wilshire 5000 71,588.0 +.9%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,836.4 +.4%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,270.7 +1.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 989.4 +.9%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 256.4 -.2%
  

• NYSE Technology 8,339.7 +1.9%

• Transports 20,627.2 -1.1%

• Utilities 1,157.3 +.3%

• MSCI Europe Banks 115.1 +1.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 63.9 +.4%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 255.3 +.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 132.5 -.3%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 612,393 +.1%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.0 -36.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,124 -601

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.6 +5.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 192,302 -6.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,984,747 -5.2%

• Total Put/Call .73 +6.4%

• OEX Put/Call .19 -66.0%

• ISE Sentiment 177.0 +8.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.14 -27.6%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 116.8 +2.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -5.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 17.0 -9.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .55 -29.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.9 -2.5%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.1 +.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.1 -1.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,322.8 -.5%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  94.2 unch.

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.626 Trillion -.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$17.738 Million

• AAII % Bulls 38.1 -17.2%

• AAII % Bears 39.7 +15.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) unch.

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 395.1 +3.5%

• Crude Oil 102.20/bbl. +6.8%

• Reformulated Gasoline 359.6 +7.2%

• Natural Gas 2.79 +9.9%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 76.9 USD/Megawatt +2.7% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%
  

• Heating Oil 395.3 -.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 137.8 (1,000/metric ton) +6.8%

• Gold 4,619.1 -1.9%
• Silver 75.75 +.1%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 177.7 -1.5%

• Copper 597.4 -1.0%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 405.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 25,450.0 USD/metric tonne +8.4%
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 59.4 -1.0%  

• CME Lumber 585.0 +.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,416.3 +3.4%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton +1.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 641.5 USD/Short Ton -1.7% 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% n/a

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.5 -1.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.0 +17.5%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 178.7 +6.7% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 95.0% +3.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 352.9 -37.5%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.2
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(315 of 500 reporting) +28.4% +3.1 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 347.47 4.90:  Growth Rate +25.4% +1.8 percentage points, P/E 20.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.23% +5.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +61.9% -252.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 836.95 +15.04: Growth Rate +111.4% +3.8 percentage points, P/E 19.4 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.1 +8.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.8 -22.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 48.9 +9.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 7.1%(+1.8 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 92.9%(-.9 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17

• US Dollar Index 98.17 -.34%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,864.4 -.2%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 78,555.0 +.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.0 -1.4%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 +43%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 49.25 -4.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +7.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% +7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.652 Trillion -.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.052 Billion +4.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.2 -.2%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 193.5 +2.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 82.0 +4.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.7 +.4%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.0 -2.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 118.3 -9.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.9 +.1%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 83.0 +6.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.5 -1.5%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.08 -.8%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.07 +.2%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.28% +18.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.56% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.24 +8.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.49 +6.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 1.25 -3.0 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.5 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.96 -1.1% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 78.2 +4.9%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 104.0 -2.9%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 490.75 -3.3% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 218.0 -29.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 61.2 -1.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 159.3 -.7%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 579.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .51 -2.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% -30.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,423.7B +.3%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,500 -1.7%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.2 -.3%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.35% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 298,500 -1.6%

• Weekly Retail Sales +7.1% +20.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% +4.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $123.9M -22.0%

• Nationwide Gas $4.39/gallon +.33/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,686.0 +.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,216.4/40 ft Box -.7%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,269.6 +4.8%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 240.0 -4.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 129.3 -2.6%

• Rail Freight Carloads 281,788 +1.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,748,380 +31.3% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 +.9 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 43.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +.4%

Leading Sectors

• Networking +6.3%

• Computer Hardware +4.8%
• Energy +4.6%

• Alt Energy +4.5%
  

• Healthcare Providers +3.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Biotech -1.6%

• Airlines -2.5%
  

• Homebuilding -2.7%

• Medical Equipment -4.0%
  

• Gold & Silver -6.8%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (80)

• FIVN, ATOM, TEAM, WOLF, LWLG, XNDU, TWLO, BAND, AXTI, ETON, MRAM, NUTX, RDDT, AAOI, NVT, NBIS, VEEV, MLYS, BTSG, CWST, EHC, NICE, MXL, TRN, NVTS, DCBO, ARVN, CBOE, CSIQ, TWO, NVCR, GRRR, DDOG, CORT, GTLB, NAVN, MGNI, VIAV, CRWV, FIG, DXYZ, ZM, FSLR, ORN, ACHC, ILMN, STX, PRCH, EMN, AMBQ, AIG, MTZ, ADTN, SIMO, PHAT, ARDT, GLXY, XHR, THC, AAPL, CELC, TSLA, NOK, OPRA, UPWK, SHIP, BSTZ, EL, NVO, RMAX, UAMY, LLY, MTRN, FLYW and SNOW

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (40)

• AOSL, MPWR, TSCO, IDCC, FLS, PH, FLGT, EGO, JOE, SYK, CLB, COHU, SPXC, CRI, NMIH, CNK, RIVN, HCC, IRTC, SNDX, ORKA, MMSI, IMAX, LAZ, AX, FET, CLX, ALHC, INGM, BIO, PWP, RYAN, DLB, ATMU, RBLX, CBIO, TREE and SMMT

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +12 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +19 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXSM)/-.82    
• (KRYS)/1.49
• (NCLH)/.14
• (TSN)/.78 

After the Close: 

• (ADTN)/.09
• (AEIS)/1.98
• (ALSN)/2.07
• (BCC)/.42
• (BWXT)/.92
• (FANG)/3.66
• (DUOL)/.77
• (FN)/3.56
• (IAC)/-.34
• (LSCC)/.37
• (ON)/.61
• (OSIS)/2.54
• (POWL)/1.36
• (TDW)/.68
• (RIG)/.08
• (VNO)/.51
• (WMB)/.63 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in Feb.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, SEMICON Southeast Asia Conference, (TTD) annual meeting, (UBER) annual meeting, (AFL) annual meeting, (BAC) annual meeting, (LLY) annual meeting and the Barclays Americas Select Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Tokyo’s key inflation gauge unexpectedly slowed and remained below the Bank of Japan’s target, supporting policymakers’ cautious approach toward resuming interest-rate hikes. 
• Petrobras pumped record oil and gas volumes in the first quarter and ran its refineries near full capacity, underscoring Brazil’s growing importance to global energy markets disrupted by the Iran war. 
• OpenAI's CFO hits back at talk that it's missing internal sales and user targets.
• A recent flurry of data underscores how the AI investment boom is propelling trade, investment and consumption in some corners, while the energy shock from the Iran war is inhibiting them in others.
• Tesla generated more than half a billion dollars in revenue last year from selling products to two of Elon Musk’s other companies, the carmaker disclosed in an amended annual filing.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge

• Aircraft Carrier Strike Group To Leave Middle East, Reducing Footprint Amid Iran War. 
• L3Harris' Missile Business Files To Go Public As Trump's War Economy Prepares For Launch. 
• /3 DOJ’s new report confirms that the SPLC was a major source for the FBI targeting “radical traditional Catholics.”
•  DOJ just released a report confirming AFL’s and @JudiciaryGOP’s findings that the Biden Administration routinely weaponized the federal government against Christians — “at the behest of the SPLC.”
• Massive Lithium Lode In Appalachia Could Power 130 Million EVs: USGS.
• The Rothschild Dynasty Survived Wars and Crises. Will the Epstein Files Tear It Apart?
• CCP Moves To Tighten Oversight Of Gig Workers.
• Trump Says Gas Prices Will Drop "Like a Rock" Once Conflict Ends, As Senator Breaks With GOP Leadership On War Powers.
• $25 Billion: Hegseth Accused Of Lowballing Cost Of Iran War.
• AI Hype Meets Hardware Crunch As US Power Equipment Market Eyes $65 Billion Boom.
• *APPLE SEES 3Q REV +14% TO +17%, ESTIMATE +9.1%.
• Goldman Maps Retailer Exposure To Working-Poor Consumers As Gas Soars.
• *META LOOKING TO DEVELOP MANY NEW APPS USING AI: WSJ.
• AAPL's China sales raise an eyebrow for the 2nd quarter in a row.
• Rising Venezuelan Oil Exports Help Insulate The US From Energy Crisis.
• The Vaccine Safety Signal The Media Still Won't Read.
• Stocks Thrust To New All Time High Amid Powerful Rotations Below The Surface.       

• @CNBC

• Australia and Japan markets set to climb, looking past Iran war escalation fears.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Veeva Systems to join S&P 500 index, replacing Coterra Energy.
• Reddit's CEO calls his company 'the fuel' for artificial intelligence.
• Stock futures are little changed after the S&P 500 hits a record to wrap April's trading: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Apple, Roblox, Reddit, Roku & more.
• Apple reports earnings and revenue beat, boosted by services business.
• Tech stocks close out best month since start of Covid pandemic in 2020.    

• @TheTranscript 

• $AAPL Apple Q2 FY 2026 results [USD, YoY]:
• Atlassian CEO: "...our incredible Q3 results..." CFO: "We delivered strong financial results in Q3. Total revenue growth exceeded expectations, as Cloud revenue growth accelerated to 29% YoY..." $TEAM: +21% AH.
• SanDisk CEO: "This quarter marks a fundamental inflection point for Sandisk."
  $SNDK: -8% AH.
• Twilio CEO: "Q1 was a milestone quarter for Twilio, marked by our highest revenue and gross profit growth rates in more than three years." $TWLO: +14% AH.

• @MJTruthUltra

• She said it out loud.. Rep Luna — The Butler Assassination Attempt against President Trump had all the trademarks of an INSIDE JOB by the Intelligence Community. - intentional negligence. - Secret Seevice whistleblowers told me they were told to stand down, leaving open the “perfect location” to take the shot. - Biden admin gave limited staff that day. - we still don’t have access to his burner phones. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• If you really want to know what happened to Jeffery Epstein, just ask Maurene Comey, James Comey's daughter. Maurene Comey was the one who inspected and "lost" the original CCTV security footage outside of Epstein's cell.

• @gatlin_didier

• When a tornado hits in 2027… (video)

• @ScottPresler

• Senate Majority Leader Thune wants nothing more than to protect Senator Cornyn. So, because Leader Thune won’t pass the SAVE America Act, I’m asking every Texan to vote FOR Ken Paxton on Tuesday, May 26th. Early Voting: May 18 - May 22.

• @Jeffmfulgham

• For the sake of our state and nation I pray that my fellow Republicans in Georgia will consider voting for anyone other than @GaSecofState Brad Raffesperger, @Georgia_AG Chris Carr, and @GabrielSterling. These three men ignored and/or covered up evidence of massive manipulation in Georgia 2020. I was just one of several citizens who filed formal complaints and presented them evidence.

• @idahobeef

• PALANTIR: The same company that built the architecture for military kill chains overseas just got a $300M sole-source contract to centralize every data point on every American farm through the USDA. No bid and no competition. By 2028, the old systems are gone. What starts as streamlining paperwork ends with algorithms in Washington deciding who gets aid, who gets flagged, and who gets to keep operating. The power isn’t being modernized. It’s being concentrated.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ And farmers are in the crosshairs now. (video)

• @realannapaulina

• Congress: (pic)
• Fighting to remove pesticide liability protections because giving kids cancer is not something we should be getting behind. Here’s a little insight into Congress after hours. (video) 
• I have now been accosted by two Republican members of Congress for trying to remove pesticide liability protections. Both of which claim to be “God-fearing” Christians, but are shilling for cancer causing pesticide companies. Yikes. One even claims to be pro-life, but is cool with pesticides killing kids.
• A major study found that pesticide mixtures increased: -Childhood leukemia by 23%. -Brain cancer by 36%. -Overall childhood cancer by 30%. And yet we’re still debating whether to protect these chemicals? Remove pesticide protections from the Farm Bill. 

• @LizGunnNZ

• The most vaccinated place in the world is in Ireland. It's a place called Waterford. They had the highest vaccination rate in the world. Then they suffered the highest Covid rate in Ireland. And then they had the highest excess deaths. The local health authority got an award from the World Health Organisation for the way they handled the pandemic. They had the highest death rate, having had the highest vaccination rate. 85% excess deaths at one stage they were on. (video)

• @yoalexrapz

• I’m hearing some republicans don’t want to vote YES on @RepLuna’s amendment to the Farm Bill to remove the chemical liability shield because they “don’t like Luna”. If you put petty political differences over the safety of children you are trash and I will make sure conservative moms know exactly who you are.

• @RandPaul

• I've said it from the beginning: lying to Congress is a felony. Destroying federal records is a felony. Advising others to destroy federal records is a felony. Fauci did all three. His adviser was just indicted. Fauci is next. The deadline to prosecute Fauci is May 11. The DOJ must act now.

• @VoicesUnheard

• The House has just voted for another 3 years of warrantless spying on Americans. The FISA Section 702 Bill passed 235-191, essentially destroying the 4th Amendment in the process. Only 22 brave souls- *Massie, * Biggs, * Davidson, * Roy, *Burchett, * Crane, * Gosar, *Perry, * Norman, * Clyde, *Self, *Miller, *Hageman, * Luna, * Mills, *Brecheen, * Bishop, Spartz, & MANY more voted NO. The rest were either scared off or bribed. Boebert, Burlison, and Cloud are the worst of the worst, they campaigned on ending this abuse but sold you out when it mattered. Last week’s “no” votes meant absolutely nothing, they were lying all along. Don’t fall for their misleading tweets. TALK IS CHEAP. Check if your rep sold you out too. This isn't just about privacy, it's about control. If they can spy on you without cause, what's left? Or rather, what's next?

• @redpillb0t

• Walmart is officially going full force and is rolling out digital price tags in all 4,600 US stores, with digital screens replacing paper price tags by the end of 2026. Every shelf. Every store. All controlled remotely from one central system. This gives Walmart the ability to change the price of any product at any moment. Based on demand, time of day, inventory levels, or whatever algorithm they choose. And the moment Walmart moves, every major retailer in the country will follow. Once everything turns digital, it's game over. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.0% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 +1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.64%. 
• Crude Oil 105.90/bbl. +.8% 
• Gold 4,641.8 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.05%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.51 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.0 unch.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.74% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures +.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.