BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:29 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 +.5 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 40.0 +.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 105.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.08%.
Crude Oil 87.93/bbl. -1.1%
Gold 4,545.5 USD/t oz. +.3%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 +.05%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.33 -.03%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.9 +.%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.44% -1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.95% -3.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.1%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.18%.
S&P 500 futures -.06%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Falling Long-Term Rates, Tech/Pharma Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:49 PM

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.1 -.6%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.0 +.2%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +2.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 -5.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.0 -.8%
Emerging Market CDS Index 153.0 -1.2%
Israel Sovereign CDS 56.1 -2.8%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 unch.
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.7 -1.3

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.6 -3.2

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -67.3 +6.1

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.4 +3.3
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(480 of 500 reporting) +27.4% -.1 percentage point
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 360.15 +.90: Growth Rate +22.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.1
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.46% +1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +67.2% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 884.95 +4.85: Growth Rate +123.5% +1.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.1
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +3.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 42.75 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 186.23 +1.1%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.8% -.7 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -.5 percentage point
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.45% -4.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.73 +9.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.6% (+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 76.9%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,040 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -170 open in China

DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 3:15 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Computer Services +3.1% 2) Defense +3.1% 3) Software +2.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

UMAC, BRAI, SNOW, RCAT, AVEX, AMPX, ONDS, CRSR, A, AVAV, KSS, BBY, ICLR, DLTR, KTOS, INFQ, PSNL, AXON, ARXS, BTDR, BRUN, HRL, ARM, DMRC, UHAL, MDB, BTU, FSLR, HEI/A, PRE, SHAZ, HEI, UHAL/B, BRKR, TEM, HOOD, BETA, TXG, SMCI, GRRR, VSH, RGTI, WOLF, CPRI, BLLN, CYRX, ADUR, EH, ESTC, NOW, DRS, CBIO, QBTS, TNDM, TMO, PATH, DUOT, TOYO, CSIQ, HCC, HBM, RDW, JOBY, OKTA, NUCL, NTNX, STRL, TWST, LPTH, IONQ, AZTA, DAVE, NUCL, APP, OMDA, QUBT, NVRI, DG, GRAL, TTAN, IRTC, ACMR, RVTY, APH, DELL, MDA, NCNO, DKS, VSCO, HMY, LLY, BIO, ZS, PZZA, ZETA, CRSP, PSN, MNRO, F, RACE, KBR, AEO, GAP, XRAY, CLF, SMTC, VSAT, ANDG and DY

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) S 2) UMC 3) ORBS 4) CSX 5) UMAC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) UMAC 2) SNOW 3) ONDS 4) PLTR 5) RCAT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) XLY 2) FTEC 3) IGV 4) ARKK 5) SOXX

Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 2:59 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(BKE)/.74

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

Advance Goods Trade Deficit for April is estimated at -$87.2B versus -$87.9B in March.
Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in March.
Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +1.3% gain in March.

9:45 am EST

MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to rise to 50.3 versus 49.2 in April.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, (SMR) annual meeting, (ANET) annual meeting, (SITM) annual meeting, (DLR) annual meeting, (LOW) annual meeting, and the (FLUT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:55 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running +3.3% Above 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 +.3
6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
59.6% of Issues Advancing, 38.1% Declining
TRIN/Arms .98 -7.6%
Non-Block Money Flow -$112.4M
89 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
56.0% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 61.1 +1.2

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by June 30th 68.0% +1.0 percentage point
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 44.0% -3.0 percentage points
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30th 80.0% +10.0 percentage points
US Invades Iran before 2027 19.0% unch.

Other:

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 122.5 -1.0%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 86.0 +8.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% +11.0 percentage points
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 441.0 -.25 basis point
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.8 +.1%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 158.9 +1.7%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 61.0 (GREED) unch.
1-Day Vix 9.10 -9.6%
Vix 15.9 -2.6%
Total Put/Call .73 -8.8%

Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 10:22 PM

Around X:

@Business

American forces carried out airstrikes on an Iranian military site, underscoring the elusiveness of any resolution to the war that began nearly three months ago, despite recent optimism.
Chinese imports of crude oil are set to drop to levels not seen since the pandemic, as the war in Iran reveals the extent to which demand has disappeared and may not be coming back.
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he expects inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and higher energy costs wear off, though he warned inflationary risks remain tilted to the upside.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

The Trump Administration Is in Talks to Fund U.S. Drone Companies: WSJ.
Iranian military source told Tasnim News Agency: "A few hours ago, an American tanker was about to pass through the Strait of Hormuz by turning off its radar system, but was forced to stop and return after the IRGC Navy took swift and decisive action and fired at it while US army fired at Bandar Abbas but did not cause any casualties or property damage".
Texas AG Sues Discord For Deceiving Parents, Endangering Children.
US Conducts New Strikes In Iran Around Hormuz Strait After Drone Intercepts.
Viruses For Dummies.
Inside The FDA's "Cover-Up" Of Child Deaths Linked To Covid Vaccines.
UBS Answers The 10 Toughest Clients Questions: Part 1.
US, India Sign Critical Minerals And Rare Earths Mining Pact.
China's Crackdown On Online Foreign Trades Will Increase Capital Flight.
Why Is Consumer Sentiment At Record Lows?
Shanghai, Straits, Semis, & Selling: Black Gold, Big-Tech, & Bonds Bifurcate.

@TheTranscript

Agilent CEO: "It was an excellent second quarter..." $A: +11% AH.
Marvell CEO: "We are seeing exceptional AI-related bookings, and as a result, we are significantly raising Marvell’s revenue outlook for both fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 compared with the guidance we provided last quarter." $MRVL: +6% AH.
$SNOW CEO: "Snowflake delivered a milestone quarter, with product revenue of $1.33 billion, up 34% year-over-year, marking the strongest sequential dollar growth in our history...We are seeing strong momentum from both AI-driven acceleration of our core platform and growing adoption of our first-party AI products, positioning Snowflake to lead in this new era.".
Snowflake double beat. —Expands AWS collaboration with a $6B commitment. —To acquire Natoma to strengthen secure connectivity for AI agents. CEO: "AI continues to be a powerful tailwind for Snowflake, and Q1 marks a clear inflection point in that journey.".
$SNOW: +33% AH.

@WallStEngine

Texas Stock Exchange is targeting July 6, 2026, to begin continuous trading. S&P Dow Jones Indices will also add the Texas Stock Exchange as an eligible exchange for S&P U.S. indices.
$NBIS is hitting all-time highs in extended hours after Leopold disclosed a 5.6% stake in the company.
$DELL won a five-year ~$9.7B Pentagon software agreement to provide Microsoft enterprise software across the U.S. military. The deal covers Microsoft 365, cloud subscriptions, and on-prem licensing through a single contract vehicle. Pentagon officials expect the consolidation to cut duplicate software spending and save about $422M annually.