Monday, April 13, 2026

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -1.7%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.0 +.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .12 -4.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.8 +.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.3 -1.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 73.2 -.7% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -3.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.5 -1.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.5 -4.6
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +66.5% -14.8 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 338.15 +.73:  Growth Rate +21.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.2 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 802.76 +2.28: Growth Rate +101.8% +.6 percentage point, P/E 18.7 +.2 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .76 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 51.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 176.8 +1.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.6 euros/megawatt-hour +4.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 20.4% -.1 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% -2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.56 +11.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.9% (+1.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +942 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +38 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +334 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.6% 2) Foods -1.2% 3) Airlines -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GIS, BLLN, BROS, LITE, AXTI, AWR, CWT, CAG, MPLT, ERAS, FAST, GFL and FBRX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EA 2) TECH 3) NUAI 4) NU 5) REPL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) REPL 2) FAST 3) GOSS 4) LULU 5) BBY
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLF 3) IGV 4) XLK 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Software +5.1% 2) Cyber Security +3.4% 3) Computer Hardware +3.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RVMD, SYRE, OPTX, SGML, CAR, TSSI, LEG, LPTH, ANRO, CRDO, ORCL, BRZE, ADPT, MRLN, ALAB, FICO, LWLG, NOK, NET, CRWV, SNOW, SAIL,L NBIS, TEAM, SNEX, SION, GLOB, BEAM, GWRE, FORM, DELL, QLYS, AMPX, IDYA, AEBI, DOCN, AESI, MARA, PENG, NAVN, KMX, DBVT, AXON, AKAM, VEEV, JKS, SSSS, DXYZ, PLTR, TRMD, APPN, FSLY, OKTA, ZS, LC, VOR, CNM, ADSK, BAP, DLO, MANE, HPQ, FLY, WPP, BETR, ECVT, ASND, FLOC and JBIO
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TVTX 2) CZR 3) UMC 4) ERAS 5) DLO 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ALMU 2) RVMD 3) TBRG 4) LEG 5) CRDO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) DRAM 3) GRID 4) VDE 5) IXN
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ACI)/.43
  • (BLK)/11.64
  • (KMX)/.23
  • (C)/2.63
  • (JNJ)/2.68
  • (JPM)/5.45
  • (WFC)/1.58 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March is estimated to fall to 97.9 versus 98.8 in February.  

8:30 am EST

  • PPI Final Demand MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +.7% gain in Feb.
  • PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.5% gain in Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, ADP weekly employment change, IEA Monthly report, IMF Meetings, API weekly crude oil stock report, (MCO) annual meeting, (BK) annual meeting and the Needham Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -18.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 +.8
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 43.8% of Issues Advancing, 53.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .72 -43.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$158.2M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
  • 54.2% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.3 -2.8
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 68.0% +4.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
  • Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 26.0% -23.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 38.0% +8.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 30.0% -25.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 111.3 +.6%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 93.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 523.25 +14.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.7 +.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.7 +1.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (FEAR) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.9 -42.6%
  • Vix 19.9 +3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +6.3%

Sunday, April 12, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (UPS) and (CP).
  • @MarioNawful
  • Remember credit default swaps? The thing that blew up the world in 2008? They were so dangerous regulators spent years trying to rein them in. Wall Street just brought them back for a new sector. S&P Dow Jones is launching a credit default swap index tied to 25 North American financial firms, including giants like Blackstone, Ares Capital and Apollo. Major banks start selling it next week. Here's why it matters: private credit has been on shaky ground... 
  • BREAKING: Iran releases a blistering statement after 21 hours of talks collapse in Islamabad: "The American enemy, which is vile, wicked and dishonest, attempted to achieve on the negotiating table what it could not achieve through war. Iran has decided to reject these terms and continue the sacred defense of its fatherland by any means necessary, military or diplomatic." That's the IRGC calling the United States "vile, wicked and dishonest" minutes after Vance boarded Air Force Two. They say the U.S. demanded Iran hand over enriched uranium and give up sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no to both. This statement wasn't written after the talks failed. This was written before they started.
  • Lebanon was the deal-breaker nobody is talking about enough... The nuclear issue and Hormuz get the headlines. But according to sources inside the talks, a critical breakdown came over Lebanon. The U.S. offered to convince Israel to stop strikes in Beirut first, then "gradually expand" the pause to southern Lebanon and the rest of the country. Iran wanted an immediate, full ceasefire across all of Lebanon. They couldn't bridge that gap. This is the pattern playing out exactly as predicted throughout this war. 
  • Netanyahu from South Lebanon: "The war in Lebanon will continue." Ok.... and what about the Iran ceasefire? Who's calling the shots?? 
  • Russia is now protecting its oil with warships... this isn't going to end well. Fed up with other countries taking its shadow tankers, Putin's Northern Fleet destroyer Severomorsk is now patrolling off the coasts of Denmark and Germany. (video)
  • @TheSCIF
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @visegrad24
  • @Watcherguru
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @AaronRDay
  • @HormuzLetter  
  • @legitgov
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @TheIranWatcher
  • @ClashReport
  • @BabakTaghvaee1
  • @BRICSinfo
  • JUST IN: Turkey says Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's "current objective is to undermine ongoing peace negotiations." "Failing this, he risks being tried in his own country and is likely to be sentenced to imprisonment."
  • JUST IN: Turkish President Erdogan threatens military action against Israel, The Telegraph reports. "Just as we entered Libya and Karabakh, we can enter Israel." 
  • @JRobFromMN
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • JASON: “All the Jewish-Americans I talk to say Netanyahu is causing — with his actions in Gaza, Lebanon, Iran — he's gone too far, and it's causing the anti-Semitism we're experiencing.” (video)
  • @LeadingReport
  • @allenanalysis
  • @HealthRanger
  • @NicHulscher
  • @BrianEastwoodx
  • @redpillb0t
  • @WideAwake_Media
  • @KellyLMcCarty
  • @Bitcoin_Teddy
  • Prepare for the most jaw-dropping 4 minutes and 21 seconds you will watch this year. Nicole Shanahan — ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin, former running mate of RFK Jr., and a woman who personally signed nine-figure philanthropy checks — went full whistleblower on the entire Silicon Valley “tech wife mafia” and how they were used. Her exact words: (video)
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.5 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%.
  • Crude Oil 104.40/bbl. +8.1%
  • Gold 4,744.7 USD/t oz. -.91% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.63 +.26%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.69 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 111.6 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +3.0 basis point. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.69% +5.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.2 +2.7%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.4%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.74%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.81%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by transportation and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% Net Long heading into the week.