Thursday, April 16, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @GenFlynn
  • @MarioNawful
  • @teddyschleifer
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Alan Dershowitz: WOW! “I know Marco Rubio better, and I know that Marco Rubio is very supportive of Israel— but JD Vance is too “anti-involvement in foreign wars” and he’s too “America First…” Listen to this twice and realize how crazy this sounds. (video)
  • @SidneyPowell1
  • @TheSCIF
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @AaronSiriSG
  • Trump's pick to head the CDC, Erica Schwartz, would likely be a disaster. Schwartz led nationwide Covid-19 vaccine deployment and her long track record of directly issuing rights-crushing civilian and military vaccine mandates, including mandating injection of smallpox, anthrax, and flu vaccines into U.S. Forces, and discipling those that refused, reflects she lacks the basic ethics and morals to lead the CDC. This agency does not need another cheerleader for industry; it needs a regulator over industry. Her prior promotion, let alone mandates, of nearly a dozen different vaccines leave little hope she will objectively oversee CDC’s vaccine program which has, between 1986 and the 2026, gone from 3 injections to 29 injections, including in utero, by an infant’s first birthday, while chronic childhood disease has gone from under 10% to over 40% of children, most related to immune system dysregulation.
  • @HarrisonHSmith
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • The Demoncrats have put almost $100 million into the redistricting vote in Virginia, which if goes their way will swing Congress to blue in the midterms. The Republicans have put about one million to fight the redistricting. Most of that 100 million is dark money. $100 to $1...
  • @ggreenwald
  • @FinanceLancelot
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @ABridgen 
  • @AshtonForbes
  • @BillMelugin_
  • @IsaiahLCarter
  • @ShannonJoyRadio
  • A new national law has been introduced to require all Operating Systems to have mandatory Age Verification. House Resolution 8250 : “To require operating system providers to verify the age of any user of an operating system, and for other purposes.” The Federal bill was introduced by Rep. Josh Gottheimer, Democrat from New Jersey. And is co-sponsored by Elise M. Stefanik, Republican from New York. The full text of the bill has not yet been made publicly available (but is expected shortly). Trojan Horse for mandatory Digital ID right here: HR 8250 has been introduced. We need to KILL IT now.
  • @WallStMav
  • @austin_fit76995
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%. 
  • Crude Oil 93.36/bbl. -1.3% 
  • Gold 4,810.4 USD/t oz. +.04%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.71 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.74 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 112.8 -.5%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.31% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.62% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.1%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Israel/Lebanon Ceasefire, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Telecom Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 +1.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.3 -.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.1 +1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 159.9 +2.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 72.4 +.8% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.4 -1.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.4 -.4
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.2 -1.2
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(41 of 500 reporting) +30.5% -.9 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 339.89 +.55:  Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.08% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 813.08 +3.95: Growth Rate +104.4% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.1 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.0 +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.0% +.3 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.57 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 98.0% (-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 89.7%(-2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -298 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment -2.0% 2) Airlines -1.8% 3) Construction -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TEM, NUTX, RMIX, ASML, TVTX, CDNL, LBRX, CSIQ, KALV, MAIN, SCHW, CRDO, ABT, YSS, ETON, JKS and QDEL 
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) CTMX 2) WMB 3) INFQ 4) HWM 5) BK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IBRX 2) NUAI 3) ENPH 4) JKS 5) GOSS
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) XBI 4) VFH 5) SOXX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Telecom +2.4% 2) Computer Services +2.2% 3) Energy +2.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XNDU, CDNA, AXTI, NN, NUCL, PII, SMMT, NVTS, SGML, FLY, AEHR, WOLF, PL, BKSY, MRLN, IRDM, GRPN, HIMX, RKLB, ON, JBHT, CHRW, CAR, DOO, ALM, ANL, HIMS, AMD, FWRD, SANM, LITE, AKAM, UMC, SQM, SMTC, OKTA, KNX, LUNR, ADUR, AGMB, SAIA, RDW, SRAD, FSLY, RDNT, QBTS, KALU, AMKR, AAOI, MXL, ADUR, ARCB, BAP, ORCL, PPG, RAPP, HMY, TTE, BABA, AGL, TEAM, VIA, GOLD, COHR, NET, ONTO, ATAT, HROW, PATK, BIDU, GFS, CAG, PBR/A, LION, RIVN and DDOG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RUM 2) UMC 3) CMPX 4) FLG 5) EVTL 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MYSE 2) CDNA 3) AEHR 4) PII 5) ON
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) MAGS 4) IBB 5) XLF
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ALLY)/.93
  • (ALV)/1.83
  • (BMI)/1.22
  • (FITB)/-.10
  • (RF)/.60
  • (STT)/2.64
  • (TFC)/1.00 
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
  • None of note 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, IMF meetings, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, (CCL) annual meeting and the (BA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +4.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.0 +2.5
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 53.5% of Issues Advancing, 44.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .89 unch.
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$26.6M
  • 57 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
  • 57.6% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.6 unch.
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 76.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
  • Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 82.0% +6.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 34.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 72.0% -7.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 112.7 +.5%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 94.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 495.75 -3.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.1 -.2%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 144.4 -.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (Moved to GREED from NEUTRAL) +9.0
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -9.5%
  • Vix 18.6 +2.6%
  • Total Put/Call .63 -16.0%