Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Earnings Outlook Optimism, US/Iran Nuclear Deal Hopes, Diminishing AI Industry Disruption Fears, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.5 -.8%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.98 -.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 127.7 -1.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 unch.

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.4 -.5 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.2 -.1 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +11.8% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.66 +.03:  Growth Rate +19.1% unch., P/E 21.6 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.51% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.0 +.41: Growth Rate +23.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.5 +.6 point
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .58 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch. 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.8 +1.3% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.7% -.6 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.05% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.65 +7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 83.8% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 53.9%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,090 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.8% 2) Foods -1.6% 3) Oil Services -1.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• JBTM, GLNG, LOW, LTH, BBIO, HLN, PARR, ALKS, SHOO, TEM, XPEL, OIS, HNI, MELI, CBLL, XMTR, CYTK, LQDA, CSGP, IBRX, LUNR, GDDY, TALO, VRRM, FSLR, DEO, MGPI, DRVN and ODD

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) UWMC 2) XLB 3) MET 4) LOW 5) CAVA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DRVN 2) MNKD 3) FSLR 4) TALO 5) ODD

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) SOXX 3) XLE 4) PLDR 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +3.2% 2) Computer Services +3.2% 3) Software +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• RYAM, YOU, CRCL, ECG, NVCR, CAVA, NVTS, SGML, ACHC, CLDX, AXON, FIGR, PLAB, FRMI, COIN, VIR, MITK, REZI, AXTI, BMNR, JAZZ, FIG, UTHR, NTSK, TRI, FLYW, PSTG, HYMC, KLAR, TECX, HZO, BRCB, LAND, HSBC, AA, INFQ, COHR, CECO, VIAV, WDC, CLBT, IONQ, SLDE, BOW, PHAT, LITE, NFLX, SIMO, ETOR, FORM, THR, YELP, FROG, HOOD, OWL, AEHR, TREE, FEIM, ALKT, SUPN, RELX, ALB, BCAX, SNOW, FSS, SKT, VICR, PRVA, LASR, SAN, CEVA, CAMT, TASK, SOFI, FICO, CVI, ZGN, MORN, ABNB, HIMS, PLTR, CNNE, CSTM, CEG, GRAL, AMKR, SQM, INTU, DELL, SBSW, APO, GLOB, SBSW, APO, BMO, HURN, DAVE, WING, GSHD, AROC, HLNE, IBM, EVER, OFIX, ZS, ELAN, ARRY, SEI, ADMA, CRWD, GPGI, PCOR, MCY and ADP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UUP 2) LRMR 3) ODD 4) SNPS 5) MDLN 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) RCKY 2) CRCL 3) YOU 4) CAVA 5) PLAB

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) XLI 4) IGV 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACMR)/.44
• (BIDU)/9.69
• (CARS)/.54
• (LNG)/3.80
• (DCI)/.89
• (EME)/6.68
• (FCN)/1.46
• (HTZ)/-.52
• (HRL)/.32
• (SJM)/2.27
• (DNUT)/.03
• (PZZA)/.33
• (PEG)/.71
• (RYTM)/-.80
• (SHAK)/.14
• (TD)/1.66
• (VST)/2.60
• (WRBY)/.05
• (WBD)/-.03
• (WWW)/.44 

After the Close: 

• (AMBA)/.10
• (AAOI)/-.11
• (ADSK)/2.64
• (CRWV)/-.50
• (CPNG)/.03
• (DELL)/3.53
• (DUOL)/.84
• (FLUT)/1.89
• (INTU)/3.68
• (MTZ)/1.95
• (MNST)/.48
• (NTRA)/-.51
• (NTAP)/2.06
• (LASR)/.11
• (SMR)/-.15
• (RKLB)/-.10
• (STRA)/1.41
• (TLN)/2.62
• (WULF)/-.13
• (USAR)/-.16
• (ZS)/.89 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 216K versus 206K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1858K versus 1869K prior. 

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 2.0 versus 0.0 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• (SF) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Animal Health Summit, Citi Unplugged Medtech/Life Sciences Access Day, (CG) business update call and the Bernstein TMT Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.5 +1.3
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 51.6% of Issues Advancing, 45.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.19 +21.4%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$168.1M
  
• 187 New 52-Week Highs, 48 New Lows
• 65.9% (-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI61.5 +2.0

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 69.0% +4.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% unch.
• US strikes Iran by March 15th 46.0% -2.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.3 +2.2%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 544.75 -10.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.1 +.4%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.8 +2.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.0 +2.4%
  
• Vix 18.4 -6.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -13.1%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe briefed senior lawmakers about Iran, amid growing demands for the White House to explain its rationale for a massive military buildup that’s fueled speculation of impending attack. 
• Wall Street’s top prosecutor Jay Clayton said companies that self-report fraud and financial misconduct affecting market integrity can avoid criminal charges under a new initiative. 
• Workday CEO Aneel Bhusri said leading AI companies like Anthropic — which investors fear will disrupt the software industry — actually use his company’s products.
• The head of an Amazon artificial intelligence lab who led efforts to create autonomous agents is leaving the company.
• Bitcoin’s collapse is highlighting the growing divide among the large-scale computing companies that make the cryptocurrency work.  
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Right tail is out of fashion. Playing a squeeze higher is cheap.
• Morgan Stanley Thinks We May Have Hit "Peak Fear", And Its Best Trade If We Haven't
  .
• Leftist Media Outraged After USA Olympic Hockey Team Goes Pro-MAGA
  .
• BREAKING: Thomas Massie to sit on the Democrat side of the aisle during Trump’s State of the Union to show “bipartisan unity” on the Epstein files
  .
• Pope Allegedly Labels "Far Right" His Greatest Concern In Private Meeting
  .
• Are Transfers Replacing Work For America' Poor
  ?
• NEW: Per @FoxNews brain room, 70 Congressional Democrats and one independent have announced they are skipping President Trump’s SOTU speech tonight. That number continues to grow by the hour
  .     
• Democrats Will Try Not To Act Like Children During Trump's State Of The Union Address
  .
• NFLX jumps after Paramount now appears more likely to buy WBD. All you need to know about that deal
  .  
• Cartel Problem Is 'Spilling Over To The United States': Texas Senator
  . 
• Big-Tech Bounces Back; Bullion & Black Gold Breakdown
  . 

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to climb after Wall Street's AI relief rally.
• Stock futures are little changed ahead of key earnings results from Nvidia: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Workday, Cava, Lucid Group and more.
• State of the Union: Trump to announce plans for new tax cuts through budget reconciliation.
• Cava reports surprise same-store sales growth, driven by menu prices.
• Workday stock sinks on weak revenue guidance.

• @TheTranscript 

• Axon CEO: "We expect 2026 revenue growth of 27% to 30% with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5%. Looking further ahead, we are establishing a new target for 2028 of approximately $6 billion in annual revenue and a 28% Adjusted EBITDA margin". $AXON: +15% AH.
• MercadoLibre CEO: "...strong financial performance, with revenue growth of 45% YoY in Q4'25, capping a year in which we grew 39% YoY. Income from operations grew 22% YoY in 2025...We exit the year with clear momentum...".$MELI: +3% AH. 

• @dandinohill

• How to stop Thune and McConnell from blocking the SAVE Act: 5 GOP Senators can call for a meeting of the Republican Conference (often referred to as convening or calling a "new" or special conference meeting). Then they can elect a new Senate Majority Leader and New Chair of the Rules Committee. Get it done!!

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “Warning clip comes with a trigger - if you’re not going through the Epstein files - I am an hit some of the most disturbing parts”. “They trafficked little girls - they got them pregnant - they took their babies”. “They think about cream cheese - they are referring to breastmilk in the intestines”. “They emails back-and-forth - I’ve got a good 10-year-old, I’ve got a good 8-year-old - do you want it?” They know who the perpetrates are and they redacted their names”. (video)
• Meanwhile over Louisiana, US. “Waves galore”. People are now also realising that they are not only being sprayed, but also microwaved too. How do you know? Watch the video - skies didn’t used to look like this everywhere all of the time. (video)

• @RenzTom

• Congratulations to Susie Wiles and Pam Bondi on their success in undermining and dividing MAGA and destroying the midterms. The lack of accountability for anyone, anti-MAHA policies, lies about child rapists (Epstein), and the continued push for anti-MAGA policies is driving enthusiasm to incredible new lows. I’m looking forward to seeing the actions Trump is going to take against election fraud, but they will be far too little to prevent a Dem majority. The only hope is major accountability on issues real MAGA cares about. We can’t have a Dem majority, but we can’t stop it without Trump changing direction. It’s time to quit arguing about what is happening and to work together to push Trump back to core MAGA issues starting with accountability.

• @MikkiWillis

• Are you tired of the Epstein files yet? Just know that the avalanche of shocking documents is intended to wear you down until you don’t want to hear or see any of it ever again. This is how they get the masses to look away and move on. This is how… Wait a minute… Are we still talking about Epstein? Why would we waste our time on a Democrat hoax when the Dow is over 50,000 and aliens are invading? Common. Where are all the flag-waving patriots who stormed the capital in the name of election integrity? Where are the mobs of protesters who took to the freezing streets when one of their comrades was killed? We are always ready and willing to fight for our political tribe, but when it’s revealed that countless innocent women and children are being kidnapped and ritually sacrificed, well… Can’t we just focus on the Super Bowl halftime show a little longer? I understand. There’s a lot of really difficult things to see and read in those files. Especially for those who’ve been hitting snooze for the last 20 plus years while all the crazy conspiracy theorists have been sounding the alarm. If the revelation that our world is controlled by satanic pedophiles isn’t enough to bring us together, then we’re no better than those baby-eating devils. This is the moment for every one of us…

• @TheSCIF

• HUGE: A thorough analysis of the Maricopa County Election Management System (EMS) was performed on the tabulators used in the 2020 election, finding clear evidence of altered software and configurations outside EAC state certifications, which point to significant signs of fraud, including potential altered outcomes, software manipulation, votes tabulated, and counterfeit ballots.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Dear Conspiracy theorists.. you were right again. The CIA just republished declassified files related to “Project Artichoke” — A Secret Government Program Designed to manipulate Americans' minds through covert drugging with vaccines. Project Artichoke (1951–1956), a secret early Cold War program focused on mind control, behavior modification, and advanced interrogation techniques. Key revelations from the documents include CIA plans to create and deploy chemicals/drugs that could be slipped covertly into everyday items—food, water, Coca-Cola, beer, liquor, cigarettes, or even medical treatments like vaccinations and injections—to alter people’s behavior without their knowledge.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Rep. Nancy Mace says the current Department of Justice has shut down all investigations into Epstein and will not pursue any future arrests. She says the main reason is that Epstein was an intelligence asset. “I have no confidence in our justice system.” (video)

• @RepLuna

• Congressional ethics is a joke. They have so much dirt on members of Congress, and they do nothing. There is even a slush fund they use to pay people off with your tax dollars. This is part of why the system is so broken. They’re sitting on reports, and if someone steps out of line, isn’t it ironic how they leak them, threaten to leak them, or time it for right after Election Day? As you can see, there is a serious problem up here, largely surrounding sexual misconduct. It pisses me off because while some of us are actually working and busting our asses, these clowns are sexually harassing their own staff, doing illegal crap, insider trading etc. It sets a terrible precedent for the entire institution. I would kick every single one of you out if I could, but I can’t because the votes aren’t there. The one thing I can do is call it out on here so people know and push to ensure there is no insider trading for any of you. Stop being predatory freaks and get OUT of office. YOU DO NOT BELONG HERE. This behavior is reprehensible and a poor reflection on the Republican Party, and I will not tolerate this type of moral rot in my own party. NOR should the AMERICAN PEOPLE.

• @HealthRanger

• Glyphosate is completely banned in Vietnam, Togo, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Using glyphosate as a dessicant (drying agent) is illegal in France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Italy, Denmark, the Czech Republic and the entire EU! Yet somehow all those countries still manage to produce food for all their citizens. How is that possible if glyphosate, as we are told by propagandists, is "necessary to grow food!" ? Turns out they are just lying. You don't need glyphosate to grow food. You need carbon dioxide, sunlight, water and healthy soils, plus minerals, nitrogen, warmth and time.

• @thefoodbabe

• Modern Ag Alliance running pro pesticide ads on FB is W I L D! like.. wtf.. Cost of food doesn't matter if you die from cancer... Wow. You can't make this up. Modern Ag Alliance is the group funded by Bayer who is targeting every branch of government to get immunity on pesticides. (pic)
• Monsanto/@Bayer just filed its brief to the U.S. Supreme Court and what they’re asking for is staggering. If they win, one ruling could wipe out thousands of state-level lawsuits against pesticide companies across America. Not because the products were proven safe. Not because juries weighed the evidence and cleared them. But because federal law would override the right of states and everyday people to hold them accountable. Everyone should be watching this. We must stop the mass poisoning of America. 

• @elonmusk

• name company "Anthropic" (literally Greek for "human-centered"). > hire a bunch of doomers who secretly think humanity is the disease. > raise billions from Big Tech to build the world's most anxious, heavily-censored chatbot. > write a 50-page "Constitutional AI" manifesto so it can lecture users about microaggressions... Nailed it. (link)
• Pedophilia: A Disorder, Not a Crime. -NYT. The New York Times is utterly disgusting. (pic) 

• @KillAuDeepState

• Biden administration k*llled off $125 Trillion in cows using Global Warming as an excuse to destroy the small ranchers. They shut them down. We have the smallest amount of herds since 1951. 4 major companies control the beef industry.

• @sayerjigmi

• BREAKING: Epstein Documents Reveal He Was Actively Editing a Defense-Health Workplan That Paralleled a Classified DARPA Program — Launched the Same Month, Through the Same People. In February 2017, a formal workplan landed on Jeffrey Epstein's desk. It listed DARPA's Biological Technologies Office founding director as an advisory partner. It included a "complete digital platform for the Strain simulation exercise" — a pandemic preparedness tool. It specified "Reliance on Gates team expertise wherever relevant." And its confidentiality notice was addressed to "JEE" — Jeffrey E. Epstein. He didn't just receive it. He shaped it — pushing back on framing, navigating internal politics at Bill Gates' private office (bgC3), and treating the document as his own. That same month, DARPA launched the Pandemic Prevention Platform (P3) — building on its mRNA vaccine investments — with the goal of producing a medical countermeasure against a pandemic disease within 60 days. Two parallel pandemic preparedness platforms. The same month. At least one shared individual. One inside the Pentagon. One with a convicted sex offender as active editor.

• @houmanhemmati

• With all the talk of Ghislaine Maxwell having a body double, an Epstein Files search for “body double” reveals that Epstein allegedly had “3 containers of body double and one fast drying body double” made for him that involves a mold & requires special handling. What?!

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%. 
• Gold 5,211.2 USD/t oz. +.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.2 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.4 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.04% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.30% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.16%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.14%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.