Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.0 +3.9
• 9 Sectors Rising, 2 Sectors Declining
• 55.5% of Issues Advancing, 41.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.41 -16.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$251.4M
  
• 91 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
• 57.3% (+1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.9 +.6

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch. 
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 42.0% -8.0 percentage points 
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 45.0% -2.0%
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 15.0% +3.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 13.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 122.3 -.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 70.0 +2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 94.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 445.0 +7.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.2 -.1%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.7 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.6 -10.4%
• Vix 15.9 -2.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 -10.3%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• French President Emmanuel Macron welcomed world leaders Monday for the start of the G7 summit in Évian-les-Bains, France, where the US-Iran peace deal became the backdrop to the meeting. 
• Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will enter the spotlight Tuesday as the central bank’s key communicator, tasked with explaining the BOJ’s latest decision and the future path of policy.
• China’s consumer spending posts its first decline since the pandemic, raising risks of a deeper economic slowdown. 
• Stephen Miran, a former Federal Reserve governor, is rejoining hedge fund Hudson Bay Capital Management as a senior strategist.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• SPCX hits $3 trillion in market cap, surpassing MSFT.
• Goldman cuts its oil price target for the second time in a week: "We reduce our oil price forecast following President Trump's announcement of an interim deal that would lift the US blockade, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz after a scheduled deal signing on Friday. While full details on the agreement are unclear, we now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre-war levels by the end of July (vs. end of August previously). We are reducing our 2026Q4 Brent forecast to $80 (vs. $90 previously) and to $75 (vs. $80 prior) for the 2027 average". 
• New Study Exposes How The Left Turned Mental Illness Into A Political Identity. 
• Deutsche Bank Raises Humanoid Robot Forecast As Physical AI Nears Scaling Phase. 
• Gun Safety: Violent Crime Drops As More Americans Pack Heat. 
• New Radar System Can Detect High-Speed Drones Nearby Ports, Vessels In Extreme Environment.
• Major Korean banks are strictly capping credit loans and overdrafts to curb household debt and stock speculation, in response to a regulatory directive.
• Domesticating AI - It's Not Coming, It's Already Here.
• Final Ivy Folds As Columbia University Abandons Test-Optional Admissions Policy.
• Everybody seems worried about the next correction. Meanwhile, semis are exploding, AI remains crowded, and the 1997 analog refuses to break. The bull market nobody trusts.
• Power Transformer Lead Times Hit Record Highs As US Grid Equipment Shortage Deepens.
• Newsom Announces He's Being Investigated By Trump Justice Department.
• An Open Letter To Elizabeth Warren About Trillionaires And Inequality.
• *VANCE: MOU WITH IRAN IS ABOUT A PAGE AND A HALF. *VANCE: MOU WITH IRAN IS A VERY GENERAL DOCUMENT.
• RFK Jr. Warns Vaccine Committee Not 'Functioning', Asks Court To Accelerate Decision.
• B-52 Bomber Crashes After Take-Off From Edwards Air Force Base In California.
• Big Tech, Bullion, & Bitcoin Bid As Oil Sinks On Hormuz Hopes; AI Dispersion Grows.           

• @CNBC

• Tuesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed after Dow posts new record close on potential U.S.-Iran peace deal: Live updates.
• The Iran deal came just in time as Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits lowest level since 1983.
• How the Strait of Hormuz reopening could unfold if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented.

• @elonmusk 

• This censorship law is a wolf in sheep’s clothing. The real goal is to enable the UK government to track everyone.

• @DiolezalForGA

• Two-thirds of Americans vote on hand-marked paper ballots. They're secure and trusted. Georgia is the only state in the Union using Dominion machines statewide. It’s time we switch to hand-marked paper ballots. This is just common sense. (video)

• @nextbigfuture

• $SPCX is worth about $2.5 trillion with $190 per share. Echostar auction is $2.039 billion and still has one more round today to get to about $2.2 billion. Adding another billion tomorrow. Cash to cover 2 or more years of debt payments. $SATS you can get SpaceX shares (261.8 million in SATS) for less than $100 per share. Half price.

• @TheAIColonyRD

• This is the NUDT mosquito drone, a spy UAV built by China's National University of Defense Technology for covert surveillance you can't see coming. Under 0.3 grams. Wings that flap 500 times a second. Sensors built for covert surveillance, all packed into a body you'd swat without thinking. (video)

• @TheCalvinCooli1

• New: President Trump explains why he choose not to endorse Derek Dooley: “I don’t know Derek Dooley, and neither does anyone else, but he seems like a nice person. Unfortunately, he has lived outside of Georgia for most of his life, didn’t vote in 2020 or 2016, and said that I lost Georgia in 2020 when, in actuality, the facts have now proven that I won by a lot!”

• @ConstitutionX

• JOE ROGAN JUST SNAPPED. “I’m tired of the lies. Where the f*ck are the Epstein files?! Why is the JFK assassination STILL sealed after 60+ years?! And who the HELL really killed Charlie Kirk?!” The people are DONE. They murdered Charlie in cold blood on stage in Utah — sniper shot, September 10, 2025. They arrested some guy named Tyler Robinson… but we all know the real story isn’t being told. They hide the truth about Epstein’s clients. They hide the truth about JFK. Now they’re hiding the truth about Charlie Kirk. HOW MUCH LONGER ARE WE SUPPOSED TO TAKE THIS?! The elites are laughing at us while America bleeds. DROP THE FILES. TELL THE TRUTH. OR GET THE HELL OUT. (video)

• @JDunlap1974

• Perhaps Elon Musk's best response I've ever heard. He is asked why Charlie Kirk was killed. (video)

• @DerrickEvans4WV

• US Senator Tom Cotton and anyone who votes for this should be arrested for treason. It’s NOT antisemitic to say I don’t want our military bound to ANY foreign country or government. This is absolutely nuts. I’d love to hear someone try to defend this. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 +.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
• Crude Oil 80.71/bbl. -.05% 
• Gold 4,332.60 USD/t oz. -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.51 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.19 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.2 +.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.79% +4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.11%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.09%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Calming Inflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 -1.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 -1.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.23 -8.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -2.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.6 -3.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 48.4 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.1 -1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -3.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.5 +5.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.6 -1.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.79 +.68:  Growth Rate +24.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.50% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 912.83 +4.60: Growth Rate +76.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 +1.0 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +18.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.3 -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -9.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% +1.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -11.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 71.7%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -3.4% 2) Oil Service -2.7% 3) Computer Services -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SBGI, OTF, TFII, TOYO, MEC, SBAC, DXYZ, TFC, VOR, LDOS, AA, ELVN, WDS, MH, PTRN, TBN, FISV, PRCT, CENX, VCX, LRN, BAND and FOX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KLAC 2) FRO 3) AR 4) TRIP 5) VSH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FOXA 2) LRN 3) BAND 4) FISV 5) TFC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) AGIX 2) KWEB 3) IXJ 4) XLP 5) IDU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) AI Innovation +6.3% 2) Semis +5.7% 3) Gold & Silver +5.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WYFI, BRUN, XNDU, POET, WOLF, MRAM, ASST, WDC, QUBT, OUST, AAOI, QBTS, RVI, NTLA, CMCO, SHAZ, INFQ, HYMC, VECO, DASH, SMR, SEZL, RGTI, MRVL, AUGO, ENTG, AEVA, MBX, ESAB, AYA, EGO, ARM, TXG, IDR, VSH, TEM, ASTS, GENB, CAAP, AFRM, TLN, BMNR, UEC, GFI, SVM, BLSH, DAVE, UPST, RKT, GRND, HL, UPST, STEP, CHRN, STX, KEP, AU, RKLB, XYZ, EMBJ, WPM, SKE, CVNA, BIOA, AGI, VPG, PAAS, EQX, FNV, ROAD, BHVN, AIP, UBER, AEM, CEVA, TRIP, MUX, PLAB, OGC, COF, BA, LTM, ALOY, ONTO, SW, BKNG, MMYT, AEIS, IE, KRUS, RACE, UAL, APP, TFPM, CHDN, HON, SNEX, VMET, ERO, GEV, PSUS, CTGO, AMAT, ABVX, DB, AMKR, CHEF, ROG, AAL, APPS and EVTC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) IP 3) GT 4) KLAC 5) NNDM 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WDC 2) MU 3) OUST 4) DASH 5) MRVL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) SOXX 3) NASA 4) XLF 5) IYM

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (WLY)/1.65

After the Close: 

• (LZB)/.82

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.9% gain in April.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in April.
• The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +3.3% gain in April.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for June.
• Housing Starts for May is estimated to fall to 1430K versus 1465K in April.
• Building Permits for May is estimated to fall to 1419K versus 1423K in April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, AWS summit, (FIVE) annual meeting, (MA) annual meeting, (VMI) investor day, (TDW) annual meeting, (DLTR) annual meeting, (PENN) annual meeting, (WDAY) annual meeting, (IONQ) annual meeting, (TWLO) annual meeting, (LQDA) annual meeting, (XYZ) annual meeting, (COIN) annual meeting and the TD Cowen Disruptive Tech Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST