Friday, February 27, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,848.8 -.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 48,845.7 -1.7%
  • NASDAQ 22,603.7 -1.3%
  • Russell 2000 2,617.5 -1.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,353.3 -.6%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 249.4 -.8%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 30.3 -.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 67,800.1 -.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,511.6 -1.2%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,203.7 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 999.2 +2.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 246.1 -2.4%
  • NYSE Technology 7,021.1 -1.2%
  • Transports 19,689.8 -.7%
  • Utilities 1,187.5 +2.1%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 120.8 +1.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 62.2 -.13%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 255.5 +.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 133.6 +.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 611,347 +.6%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 +3.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 792 +599
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.5 -12.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 141,343 +20.0%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,087,493 +.8%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -7.8%
  • OEX Put/Call .32 -61.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 132.0 +25.5%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -25.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.1 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.57 +8.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +9.6%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .67 -47.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 16.0 +11.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.4 -3.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.96 +.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,821.6 -.1%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  74.9 -8.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.797 Trillion +.1%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.418 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.2 -3.8%
  • AAII % Bears 39.8 +7.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 310.0 +.3%
  • Crude Oil 67.2/bbl. +.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 207.8 +3.9%
  • Natural Gas 2.86 -6.6%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 69.8 USD/Megawatt -.1% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
  • Heating Oil 267.1 +3.8% 
  • Newcastle Coal 116.5 (1,000/metric ton) -4.3%
  • Gold 5,245.4 +2.4%
  • Silver 93.0 +9.5%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 171.5 +1.5%
  • Copper 598.8 +2.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 376.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 21,275.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
  • CME Lumber 559.0 -3.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,299.7 +.7%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.9 +.1 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.65 -8.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 312.1 -25.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 +2.9
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +14.6% +2.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 321.61 +1.95:  Growth Rate +15.8% -2.9 percentage points, P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.76% +2.3 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +28.0% +8.9 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 512.03 +6.06: Growth Rate +24.6% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 28.2 -.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +6.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -12.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.7 +6.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 5.9%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 94.1%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 3/18/26
  • US Dollar Index 97.6 -.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,887.4 +.8%
  • Bitcoin/USD 65,290 -3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.8 +1.0%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 +1.5%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 57.75 +.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.96% -12.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.35% +1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.566 Trillion unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.627 Billion -.7%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.84 +3.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 186.9 +4.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 63.0 +3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.75 -1.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.5 +4.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.8 +2.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.8 +16.7%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.5 +8.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 -.77%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.97 +.74%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.9% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% +11.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.41% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.84 +29.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -3.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread .75 -2.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 -2.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.5 +7.9%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.3 -4.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 109.0 +2.8%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 558.8 +8.7% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263.0 +51.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.0 +8.4%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 134.1 +5.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 107.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 581.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .50 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.3% -30.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,406.7B +.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,250 +.34%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.3 -1.7%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.14% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 340,200 +.4%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.8% unch.
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +3.0% -12.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $166.9M +99.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $2.98/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,117.0 +3.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,898.5/40 ft Box -1.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,044.6 -1.1%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 115.0 +35.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 112.2 +6.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 280,588 -1.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,647,330 +15.9% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% -2.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -2.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +7.5%
  • Shipping +3.8%
  • Utilities +2.1%
  • Foods +2.1%
  • Restaurants +1.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -4.3%
  • Airlines -4.9%
  • Computer Services -5.8%
  • Banks -6.3%
  • Regional Banks -7.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (52)
  • AAOI, ARLO, FIGS, BWIN, PRAA, PSKY, DELL, RLAY, XYZ, XRAY, EVTC, NFLX, NEXA, BLFS, ARX, PNTG, DV, BTSG, USAU, NATL, CNK, FWONK, TMDX, ADSK, CAI, GSAT, DEC, AES, STRA, NWN, CGEM, GLOB, UTI, BVN, LII, YOU, SKWD, ECPG, CRGY, CPNG, MEG, ILMN, PENN, ROKU, DRD, OPRA, GEO and LYV
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (69)
  • SARO, AMR, WDAY, FMNB, FDUS, NCDL, KNTK, TSLX, SAN, TDPG, BN, NPKI, VITL, RNST, MBC, CECO, C, WD, MGPI, FCN, OWL, MESO, FOXF, BMA, VNET, MC, AXP, GS, QURE, LNC, HTGC, ZION, KKR, NTRA, ROOT, SOFI, FOUR, KTOS, APO, UAL, JEF, WAL, INFQ, PACS, KEP, TPC, LASR, ODD, ZS, NBIS, SEDG, ESTC, BCO, ACA, AMPH, FLUT, DUOL, AMBA, CRI, PGNY, FIGR, WLDN, PAR, FLGT and RUN
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Lower into Afternoon on AI Industry Disruption Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Rising Credit Angst, Financial/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -29 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my transport/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AAON)/.45
  • (DAVE)/3.31
  • (SEE)/.73
  • (TPB)/.87 
  • (SATS)/-.73
  • (LIF)/.26 
After the Close: 
  • (AES)/.62
  • (ACHR)/-.24
  • (ASTS)/-.17
  • (CRDO)/.91
  • (MDB)/1.48
  • (RGR)/.25 
Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

  • ISM Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to fall to 52.0 versus 52.6 in Jan.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Feb. is estimated to rise to 60.8 versus 59.0 in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, Citi Property Conference, Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference, (DKNG) investor day and the Morgan Stanley Tech/Media/Telecom Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, February 26, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @Kevinnbass
  • @MarioNawful
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @AreOhEssEyeEe
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @kevinnbass
  • @RenzTom
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TheSCIF
  • @elonmusk
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Unbelievable… Iowa Candidate Zach Lahn says Big Agricultural Giants, including Chinese-Owned Syngenta, are causing the Skyrocketing Cancer Rates and Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma in the United States. • Syngenta is a wholly owned state enterprise of the Chinese Government — it is a 100% privately held company owned by Sinochem Holdings (also known as Sinochem Group), a massive Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE). • They control roughly 85% of all farm seeds and chemicals in Iowa (down from hundreds of companies decades ago), with Syngenta’s products used on roughly 5 million acres statewide. • Paraquat (originally formulated by Syngenta) is one of the most toxic pesticides on planet earth, and it is still approved by the EPA and used on ~300,000 acres in Iowa. • Exposure to Paraquat doubles the risk of Parkinson and is so potent it is used in laboratories to deliberately induce Parkinson’s in animals. - Iowa now has “the fastest rate of new cancer of anywhere in the history of human civilization,” with the top 10 highest-cancer counties all being rural ag-heavy areas. (video)
  • Ex-CIA/NSA Analyst's "Follow the Money" Discusses Suspicious $350K Life Insurance Policy on Charlie Kirk Tied to TPUSA Finances. - Leah (theleahfiles on TikTok), a former career operative at the CIA and NSA who now runs her own corporate intelligence firm says eight days before Kirk's assassination, he announced Justin Strife as new COO and launched an internal due diligence assessment, expressing concerns that the organization was heading in the wrong direction and that he felt "left in the dark." Regarding the financials within TPUSA. (video) 
  • @SamaHoole
  • California grows 90% of American strawberries. To do it, they fumigate the soil with chloropicrin before every single planting. Not occasionally. Every planting cycle, every year, in 99% of California strawberry fields. Chloropicrin is a soil sterilant. You inject it into the ground to kill everything: fungi, bacteria, nematodes, insects, so the soil is chemically dead before you plant into it. You then grow strawberries in a sterile medium using synthetic inputs, because the natural soil ecosystem that would otherwise support the plant has been eliminated. It was also first used as a chemical weapon in World War One.
  • @LaurenWitzkeDE
  • @JackUnheard
  • @nicksortor
  • @DataRepublican
  • @jack_schroder_
  • Glyphosate/RoundUp is owned by Monsanto, and Bill Gates and other satanic "elites" own shares in their company. They want you sick, weak, and controllable. Glyphosate replaces glycine, and glycine is needed for glutathione, creatine, androgen receptors, heme iron synthesis for hemoglobin, catalase, mitochondrial ETC, and CYP450 enzymes, nitric oxide synthase, methylation buffering, collagen synthesis/formation, bile acid conjugation for detoxification/fat/vitamin absorption, RNA/DNA synthesis, inhibitory neurotransmission and sleep architecture, and driving healthy excitatory neurotransmission. It also displaces enzymes/proteins that contain copper, iron, cobalt/B12, manganese, magnesium, zinc, whilst also increasing aluminium toxicity, not only in plants, but also in your gut/body via ingestion, thus limiting your micronutrient intake, disrupting your biochemistry, and inducing further inflammation. It also limits gut production of beneficial tyrosine, tryptophan, phenylalanine, and histidine — potentially leading to lower levels of dopamine, serotonin, melatonin, thyroid hormone, adrenaline, noradrenaline, CoQ10, and melanin levels. It completely destroys your gut microbiome, minimizing beneficial strains whilst simultaneously promoting pathogenic strains.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.0 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
  • Gold 5,199.2 USD/t oz. +.11%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.23%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.17 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.29 -1.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.0% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.36% -2.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +1.0%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.20%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.