Stocks Higher into Final Hour on War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.5 -.8%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 64.9 -.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .41 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .06 -2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.8 -.7% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.0 -2.1% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.0 -1.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.1 +1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 -.6

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.4 -4.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +37.1% -7.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 411.43 +.21:  Growth Rate +25.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +602.9% -410.2 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,093.09 +.45: Growth Rate +62.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 unch.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 +1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.5 +.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 87.2 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.3% -.9%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.5% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.12% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.02 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 76.5% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 44.6%(-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -4 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -1.4% 2) Restaurants -1.1% 3) Pharma -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PEGA, ABT, SE, NHP, JD, ELS, NFLX, NPB, LRN, HSAI, MHO, LAD, TAL, TLX, RAPP, RCUS and AVEX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XEL 2) TSCO 3) TTMI 4) PBF 5) MPT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AVEX 2) NFLX 3) M 4) STLD 5) DUOL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) IYK 3) XLP 4) ARKG 5) AGIX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Space +4.7% 2) Cyber Security +3.1% 3) Computer Hardware +2.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ASST, GLXY, APPN, CRL, APLD, ALMR, SMCI, WGO, RCEL, ANL, WFRD, LIFE, KYIV, WULF, TEO, UAL, ECHO, NET, SPCX, ICLR, TTMI, TNGX, AMBA, VICR, NGNE, AMX, IREN, BEPC, MEDP, INSW, BEP, XRPN, S, ARHS, FTAI, GEV, ZYME, MESO, AXTA, PBLS, ROIV, GHT, TXN, LION, OZK, TSLA, COF, CHA, DXC, SRRK, GFS and DHR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FHN 2) UAL 3) TTMI 4) TSEM 5) SOLS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) SPCX 3) CRDO 4) MARA 5) INSW

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) ALAI 3) XBI 4) KRE 5) XLI

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAL)/-.36
• (BMI)/1.23
• (BX)/1.26
• (CRS)/3.04
• (CBRE)/1.97
• (CMCSA)/.98
• (DOW)/.64
• (HON)/2.17
• (LMT)/7.52
• (NDAQ)/1.02
• (NSC)/3.46
• (NVR)/102.77
• (POOL)/3.36
• (PG)/1.88
• (PHM)/2.65
• (DGX)/2.87
• (R)/4.15
• (SPOT)/2.80
• (TSCO)/.41
• (UNP)/3.47
• (VLO)/21.12
• (VC)/2.28 
• (FCFS)/2.63

After the Close: 

• (BE)/.69
• (SAM)/4.21
• (BYD)/1.67
• (FIX)/12.85
• (DECK)/1.79
• (MXL)/.56
• (NEM)/1.96
• (RNG)/1.28
• (RHI)/.47
• (VRSN)/2.46
• (WDC)/4.09 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 200K versus 199K the prior week.
  Continuing Claims are estimated at 1710K versus 1710K prior. 

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Sept. is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in Aug.

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 12.0 from 14.0 in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and Fed's weekly balance sheet report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 -1.0
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 52.8% of Issues Advancing, 45.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.30 +83.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$119.1M
  
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 83 New Lows
• 41.8% (+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.9 +1.6

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 6.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 6.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 10.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 3.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US Invades Iran before 2027 16.0% unch.
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 25.0% -2.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 130.0 +.1%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 80.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 20.0% -25.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 459.5 -23.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 268.6 +.6%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 143.5 +1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) +4.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.3 -16.8%
• Vix 16.7 -3.4%
• Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.04%. 
• Crude Oil 98.96/bbl. +.8%. 
• Gold 4,127.0 USD/t oz. -.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.08 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.6 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.5 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.12% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.95 -1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.4 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.75%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.