| S&P 500 6,912.3 -.3% |
Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.
Indices
- DJIA 50,008.1 +2.2%
- NASDAQ 22,958.4 -2.1%
- Russell 2000 2,664.6 +2.0%
- NYSE FANG+ 15,565.9 -5.0%
- Goldman 50 Most Shorted 259.8 -1.9%
- Vaneck Social Sentiment 31.4 -4.9%
- Wilshire 5000 68,455.7 -.1%
- Russell 1000 Growth 4,585.8 -2.3%
- Russell 1000 Value 2,206.0 +2.1%
- S&P 500 Consumer Staples 983.5 +5.8%
- Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 258.2 -2.3%
- NYSE Technology 7,091.6 -4.4%
- Transports 19,866.1 +8.7%
- Utilities 1,088.6 -.23%
- MSCI Europe Banks 122.6 -1.5%
- MSCI Emerging Markets 59.9 +1.4%
- Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 254.03 -1.0%
- Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 131.36 -.24%
Sentiment/Internals
- NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 601,036 -.3%
- Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.1 +118.0%
- Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -389 -1,400
- Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.04 -14.0%
- CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 96,982 +23.1%
- CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,035,649 +3.6%
- Total Put/Call .87 unch.
- OEX Put/Call .74 unch.
- ISE Sentiment 117.0 -10.0%
- NYSE Arms 1.12 +21.0%
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.8 +2.8%
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -26.0 basis points
- Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -3.0 basis points
- Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +2.9%
- S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.48 +44.5%
- CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.6 +.1%
- G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.83 -3.3%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 -1.4%
- Smart Money Flow Index 20,059.8 +2.0%
- NAAIM Exposure Index 84.9 -7.7
- ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.797 Trillion +1.1%
- ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.596 Million
- AAII % Bulls 39.7 -10.6%
- AAII % Bears 29.0 -5.8%
- CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (moved to FEAR from NEUTRAL) -11.0
Futures Spot Prices
- CRB Index 309.4 -4.4%
- Crude Oil 63.56/bbl. -2.7%
- Reformulated Gasoline 195.2 +.7%
- Natural Gas 3.43 -22.2%
- US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 70.8 USD/Megawatt +.6%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.69 euros/megawatt-hour -10.3%
- Heating Oil 241.4 -12.4%
- Newcastle Coal 117.4 (1,000/metric ton) +.8%
- Gold 4,954.6 +1.3%
- Silver 77.2 -9.3%
- Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 168.7 -2.0%
- Copper 587.9 -1.4%
- US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
- China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1
% China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 22,325.0 USD/metric tonne +.2%
- CME Lumber 584.5 -1.3%
- UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,291.3 +.2%
- US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% unch.
- US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.8 +1.4 percentage points
- NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.13 -14.5%
- US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 193.3 -20.7%
- Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 -17.8%
- DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(291 of 500 reporting) +13.6% -1.7 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.43 +2.23: Growth Rate +17.9% +.8 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.7
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -46.0 basis points
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% +.5 percentage point
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 501.25 +7.19: Growth Rate +22.0% +1.8 percentage points, P/E 28.7 -2.6
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 -.8 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 +1.9 points
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +.3 point
- Fed Fund Futures imply 17.9%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 82.1%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 3/18/26
- US Dollar Index 97.6 +.5%
- MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,858.7 -.25%
- Bitcoin/USD 70,334 -8.4%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 211.0 +1.3%
- Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.7%
- Yield Curve(2s/10s) 71.0 unch.
- 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.21% -3.0 basis points
- Japan 30-Year Yield 3.57% -7.0 basis points
- Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.558 Trillion +.29%
- Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.330 Billion +15.0%
- U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.1+6.6%
- Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.9 +1.8%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 63.0 +2.0 basis points
- UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.15 -.03%
- China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.44 -2.2%
- Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 126.5 -2.8%
- Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.4 -.4%
- South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.0 +1.8%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 -.1%
- China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.74 -.74%
- Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
- Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.2% unch.
- US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
- CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.84% unch.: CPI YoY +2.36% unch.
- 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.38 -1.0 basis point
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
- Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
- 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.75 -.75 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.75 -.5 basis point
- N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +2.1%
- America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 173.0 +.6%
- High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 505.5 +4.6%
- Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 251.0 -5.0
- European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.55 -.3%
- Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 126.6 -.7%
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 101.0 +3.0 basis points
- Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 604.0 +7.0 basis points
- Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 -1.0 basis point
- M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% unch.
- Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,410.8B +.8%
- 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 +2.9%
- Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
- Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 45.3 -19.7%
- Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.22% +1.0 basis point
- Weekly Mortgage Applications 330,800 -9.0%
- Weekly Retail Sales +6.3% +.2 percentage point
- OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% +18.0 percentage points
- Box Office Weekly Gross $76.5M -38.8%
- Nationwide Gas $2.90/gallon +.03/gallon
- Baltic Dry Index 2,002.0 +13.6%
- Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,958.6/40 ft Box -7.0%
- China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,122.2 -4.6%
- Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 75.0 +50.0%
- Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 108.7 +26.2%
- Rail Freight Carloads 243,173 -8.9%
- TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,324,236 +34.4%
- Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -5.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
- Small-Cap Value +3.4%
Worst Performing Style
- Large-Cap Growth -2.3%
Leading Sectors
- Airlines +14.7%
- Construction +8.4%
- Homebuilding +8.2%
- Regional Banks +7.3%
- Oil Service +5.4%
Lagging Sectors
- Video Gaming -5.2%
- Internet -6.4%
- Digital Health -7.6%
- Social Media -7.8%
- Software -9.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (129)
- ROIV, ALGT, FN, EZPW, COHR, TER, ARW, TSEM, IPGP, MRVL, LITE, KLAC, IMVT, FLS, SMFG, LPG, GEN, LASR, VICR, SM, BTU, DAL, WTTR, ATR, AVGO, XPO, GLW, EHC, PENN, KRUS, NSIT, MT, QFIN, LIND, AN, CCL, CUK, LBRT, CAT, LI, OLED, BLTE, GPGI, WMG, MOD, INTC, MYRG, WST, KMT, KD, SANM, CALX, C, WEX, SWK, DAKT, AGCO, KGS, HRI, FTI, MPWR, URI, ESAB, CLS, HNRG, WCC, RRX, GFF, CLS, TSM, VPG, OSK, CALX, VET, SDRL, ATI, ALGN, BLBD, MAMA, CALX, PAAS, AROC, WFRD, ENPH, AMTM, SNDK, EQNR, LECO, TKR, YUMC, HMC, NOV, MMM, DLR, BKD, ESE, CTNM, DHT, THR, DBD, VRE, ASX, GLNG, WMS, MBC, DHT, SITM, CCSI, KGC, PHYS, AVT, COLM, TEX, WHD, BANC, WOLF, VOD and AZN
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)
- ASTH, MCHP, UNM, HIMS, AB, AFRM, TEAM, OMCL, ERO, GILT, CNC, AMZN, NWS, AMZN, NWSA, FSLR, NIQ, VRSN, ILMN, QLYS, DOCS, HUBG, PI and MOH
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