Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NEOG)/.06
• (SMPL)/.40
• (WLTH)/.12 

After the Close: 

• (BB)/.04
• (WDFC)/1.41 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST 

• Personal Income for Feb. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• Personal Spending for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 210K versus 202K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1829K from 1841K prior.
• 4Q GDP estimate revisions. 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.5% gain in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 30Y T-Bond auction, WASDE report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, Dallas Fed PCE for Feb., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (DOW) general meeting and the JPMorgan Retail Round Up Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +23.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 -6.9
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 83.7% of Issues Advancing, 15.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 2.08 +50.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$146.6.0M
  
• 93 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 54.1% (+11.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.8 +11.9

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 60.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 39% +31.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 34.0% -16.0 percentage points
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 49.0% +11.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 107.2 +3.4%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 493.5 -26.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 251.7 +1.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.6 +2.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (Moved to FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +8.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.7 -57.0%
  
• Vix 20.8 -19.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .99 +6.5%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +1.75% to +3.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.0 -7.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -1.25 basis points
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 96.5/bbl. -14.5% 
• Gold 4,854.5 USD/t oz. +3.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 +.56%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.58 +.33%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 103.2 -.5%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.26% -4.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.60% -16.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.1 -8.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +4.75%. 
• S&P 500 futures +2.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +3.0%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Protracted Mideast War Fears, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.2 +3.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.5 -.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .31 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 72.0 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 187.4 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 79.1 +.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.5 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 -.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.4 -4.4

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.4 -2.9 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 337.01 +.20:  Growth Rate +21.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +1.64: Growth Rate +101.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .50 +4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 50.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.5 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 53.2 euros/megawatt-hour +6.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% -.3 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.38 +5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 91.9% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 89.9%(-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +116 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -90 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +346 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -2.4% 2) Alt Energy -2.3% 3) Airlines -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• UAL, VIK, NKE, DSGN, AEHR, RH, KMB, ONON, STRL, MBX, FND, TMHC, ENPH, LE, NNE, MESO, MNR, GCT, AXON and PLSE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) PSKY 2) TSCO 3) SIDU 4) RXRX 5) VRDN

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) INO 2) ALIT 3) EOSE 4) SMR 5) IBRX

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) KRE 3) XLV 4) XRT 5) IYE

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Healthcare Providers +4.1% 2) Networking +1.4% 3) Oil Service +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALHC, CAR, UNH, PSKY, SLVN, HUM, SSL, BETR, AAOI, BKSY, CVS, FRPT, REPX, RLAY, AXTI, ORKA, AORT, VITL, NRIX, MEOH, BCAX, TNC, NWE, BKH and INTC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PSKY 2) XHB 3) PTEN 4) HTZ 5) PRMW 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UNH 2) ALHC 3) SILO 4) AVGO 5) HUM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLE 3) XLU 4) SOXX 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume