Saturday, October 10, 2026

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (C), (NFLX), (DIS), (CAT) and (IWM).
  • Had bearish commentary on (META) and (SKYD). 
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @WarClandestine
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @realMaalouf
  • @BRICSinfo
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @LaraLogan
  • @nicksortor
  • @visegrad24
  • BREAKING: Ukrainian long-range drones have struck the Samara LPDS again. It’a one of Russia’s major oil hubs and has Europe’s largest oil tank farm. Multiple trunk pipelines converge there, bringing crude from Western Siberia, Tatarstan, and other regions for storage, pumping, and blending into the Urals export grade. The facility supplies the Russian armed forces and supports a large share of Russia’s oil exports. (video)
  • @LibsOftiktok
  • @HealthRanger
  • @LxngevityLab
OpenVAERS:   
SKirsch.com:

Friday, October 09, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 7,811.5 +1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 51,655.0 +.9%
  • NASDAQ 27,366.2 +.6%
  • Russell 2000 2,807.0 -.9%
  • NYSE FANG+ 19,589.7 +2.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 300.2 -1.7%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 38.53 -.9%
  • Wilshire 5000 76,901.8 +1.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 5,152.2 +.7%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,493.0 +1.6%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 935.2 +4.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 270.8 -1.3% 
  • NYSE Technology 10,160.1 -1.0%
  • Transports 19,804.1 -1.0%
  • Utilities 1,056.0 +3.7%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 129.6 -3.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 66.9 -1.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 263.5 -.5%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 137,9 -.9%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 610,593 +.2%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.5 +91.8%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -658 +586
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -14.0 +16.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 109,463 -22.4%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,878,576 +2.0%
  • Total Put/Call .82 +6.5%
  • OEX Put/Call .74 -8.0%
  • Equity Put/Call .66 -7.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 -4.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 136.7 -.2%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.09 -9.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.8 -2.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .33 -52.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.4 -.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.75 -6.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.97 -9.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 18,273.4 -.3%
  • CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 36.0 -6.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.964 Trillion +.9%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.326 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 40.3 +16.5%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 414.73 +1.0%
  • Crude Oil 91.2/bbl. -.2%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 327.2 -1.2%
  • Natural Gas 3.20 +5.5%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 93,1 USD/Megawatt +19.1% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 80.2 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%
  • Heating Oil 466.5 +2.6% 
  • Newcastle Coal 150.5 (1,000/metric ton) +.8%
  • Gold 4,194.8 +1.4%
  • Silver 60.8 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 175.2 +1.0%
  • Copper 671.1 +2.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 396. USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 19,025.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
  • Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .99(price per million tokens) +1.0% 
  • inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 50.02 +.8%  
  • CME Lumber 534.50 +1.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,569.3 +.3%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 352.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
  • US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 428.5 USD/Short Ton -2.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.4 +1.0 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 -8.8%
  • Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 141.5 -9.4% 
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 69.0 -6.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 30.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 353.8 +120.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 -.2
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +144.0% -34.0 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.48 +2.02:  Growth Rate +24.5% +.6 percentage point, P/E 19.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.37% +7.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,085.82 +6.35: Growth Rate +61.7% +.9 percentage point, P/E 17.9 +.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 52.5 -22.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 21.40 -3.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 80.6%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of no change, 19.4%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 10/28
  • US Dollar Index 102.2 +.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,930.9 +.4%
  • Bitcoin/USD 82,450 -4.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 203.4 -.2%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.07 -.3%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 45.5 +.75 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 5.25% -3.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.07% -13.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.701 Trillion +.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $7.701 Billion +12.1%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.7 -2.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 196.8 -2.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -6.0 basis points
  • France Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.2 -7.6% 
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.8 -2.4%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.4 -.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109 -16.4%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.6 -1.2%
  • Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.9 +.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.5 -2.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.65 +.2%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.3 -.8%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.4% -10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% unch.: CPI YoY +3.60% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.79 +4.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 30.5 +5.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.25 +2.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 58.2 -3.5% 
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 67.7 -1.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 151.0 -2.4%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 438.2 -4.9% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 253.0 +31.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 70.5 -1.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 156.5 -6.5%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 123.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 565.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .45 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,485.6B +5.6%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 198,000 -1.3%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.7 -2.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.45% +20.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 204,700 -4.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +8.30% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +11.0% -8.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $165.8M +10.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.37/gallon -.03/gallon 
  • Nationwide Diesel $6.28/gallon -.09/gallon 
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,973.0 -5.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,351.3/40 ft Box -1.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,912.4 -.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 550.0 +10.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 110.6 +6.9%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 299,001 -.9%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,901,564 +39.3% 
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.9 -.9 point
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Value +1.6%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -1.0%
Leading Sectors
  • Energy +5.0%
  • Cyber Security +4.8%
  • Utilities +3.8%
  • Healthcare Providers +3.7%
  • Software +3.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Regional Banks -2.4%
  • Alt Energy -4.0%
  • Lithography/Photonics -4.1%
  • Space -4.2%
  • Semis -4.4%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (47)
  • WFF, FSLY, NVAX, KLRA, DNA, PICS, CCI, MRNA, HUM, DFTX, PCVX, AMT, IBRX, SRZN, SECZ, QDEL, MIRM, SNOW, LBRX, COAG, ZS, CLF, SBAC, LITE, PRGO, STNE, CHDN, LI, MANE, TEVA, IONS, CIEN, XP, GME, KYMR, BEKE, CTNM, NTLA, DT, PAGS, ELV, PCG, VST, MIR, UNH and PENG
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (18)
  • GPI, HROW, HESM, ALMR, RCI, BKD, CHTR, VOD, BCE, AVNT, GRRR, PKE, T, TMUS, ASTS, CDNL and XRPN
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Stable Long-Term Rates, FT/OpenAI Report Clarification, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -60 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -168 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -n/a open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +175 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slight Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
  • None of note 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The US bond market closure for Columbus Day, IMF meetings, SEMICON West Conference and (CRDO) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST