Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Surging Long-Term Rates, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Alt Energy/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.7 +.9% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.5 -.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .39 +3.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.2 +3.0% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 149.8 +1.5% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.9 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.6 +2.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 84.2 +2.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +16.2% -.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 403.15 +.25:  Growth Rate +22.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.0 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,048.63 +1.38: Growth Rate +56.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.3 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.27 -3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.25 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.9 +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 74.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 7.6% -.9 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.18% +7.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.48 +6.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 55.7% (+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 46.6%(unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +23 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +1 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +281 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/energy sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value -.3%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -2.6% 2) Computer Services -2.3% 3) Gold & Silver -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BCAX, ORCL, SWMR, NXRT, SLGN, BBSI, STRZ, FDMT, RSI, CGEM, ALKT, XYL, ROL, DK, IMXI, U, FTH, EQPT, FSLY, MAAS, SNX, KLRA, QURE, FSLR, GEN, MGM, ACAD, VKTX, HIL and KGC

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) APO 2) KOD 3) Q 4) QURE 5) UCO

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MGM 2) ACAD 3) BE 4) INV 5) FCEL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) ARKK 3) BAI 4) XBI 5) IDEF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.5%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +1.7% 2) Space +1.7% 3) Biotech +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SRZN, QMCO, CDNA, P, GRAL, WRBY, TWST, USDE, BLLN, LIFE, SECZ, VCYT, CBRL, CRL, PL, PRGO, IONQ, ARCT, INFQ, RKLB, PRLB, PUBM, NKTR, GDDY, TEM, MANU, META, RCL, CRWV, ICLR, TWLO, RVMD, ASST, SAIL, SPNT, KOD, WLTH, SPNT, WGS, CTAS, XENE and GME

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BBD 2) GLND 3) GDDY 4) Z 5) COF 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GRAL 2) P 3) GLND 4) TJGC 5) CTAS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) MAGS 2) XLI 3) XLE 4) ICLN 5) XOP

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Durable Goods Orders for Aug. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +1.1% gain in July.
• Durables Ex Transports for Aug. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in July.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Aug. is estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in July. 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Sept. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to -2.0 versus -3.0 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, Bloomberg US Economic Survey for Sept., weekly Baker Hughes oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the DA Davidson Diversified Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 -5.0
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 36.9% of Issues Advancing, 60.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .83 +1.2%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$24.4M
  
• 22 New 52-Week Highs, 393 New Lows
• 41.9% (-1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 38.0 +.5

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 9.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31st 7.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 13.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 5.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 14.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31st 31.0% -2.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 136.3 +1.4%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 60.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 416.25 +8.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 271.8 +.02%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 154.3 -.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.3 -3.6%
• Vix 15.6 +3.0%
• Total Put/Call .83 -6.7%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Xi Jinping was personally greeted by Donald Trump as he landed in the US for his first state visit in eleven years — an unprecedented welcome to America for a Chinese leader. 
• Brazil would be one of the countries most exposed if the U.S. bans diesel exports. The measure would force the search for new suppliers and could drive prices even higher in a market already battered by the war with Iran. 
• Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum offered a strong public show of support for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as Latin America’s two most prominent leftist leaders find themselves increasingly isolated amid a wave of conservative victories across the region. 
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said an OpenAI agent hacked a government website, adding that the firm’s CEO Sam Altman had acknowledged the lapse. 
• Sales of Venezuelan oil for loading in October stalled after a surge in shipping costs muddled negotiations between the country’s state oil company and buyers of its oil. 
• It’s an emerging risk. 
• A data center developer sponsored by affiliates of Blue Owl raised $1.1 billion through a junk-bond offering to finance a CoreWeave-tied project after offering juicy yields to lure investors. 
• Meta has unveiled a palm-sized, dedicated gadget for using Muse, the company’s popular new artificial intelligence assistant, pushing deeper into the AI devices market with the surprise announcement.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Harvey Weinstein (Finally) Sentenced To 15 Years In Prison. 
• The Sudden AI Panic Has A Lot To Do With The November Midterms.
• *META DEBUTS A DEDICATED, PALM-SIZED DEVICE WITH 5G TO USE MUSE.
• Mr. Xi Comes To Washington: What Wall Street Banks Are Expecting.
• Zelensky To UN: Russia's Deficit 'Bigger Than Any Other Year' - More Sanctions Needed. 
• Hyper CDS new all time wides, led by ORCL, SPCX, NVDA and META.
• Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR.
• Iran Vows To 'Paralyze' Regional Airports Which Prevent Its Flights From Landing.
• *CHINA IS HOLDING SENSITIVE F-35 PARTS DIVERTED TO HONG KONG. *PENTAGON SAYS IT'S WORKING TO RETRIEVE STEALTHY JET PARTS.
• TRUMP JR.’S 1789 CAPITAL IN TALKS TO RAISE $3 BILLION IN FUNDS.
• Only 7% Of Voters Rank Data Centers As A Top Political Issue; New Survey Finds. 
• Better Data & Energy Angst Spark Bond Bloodbath; Dollar Jumps, Stocks Dump.                                

• @CNBC  

• U.S.-China trade truce extended for two months, Bessent says, as Xi begins state visit.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• SoftBank shares jump over 7% after $11.1 billion bond issuance to fund OpenAI bet. 
• Flock, Axon dodge Senate hearing after invite from Chair Josh Hawley.
• Stock futures are flat after soaring Treasury yields trigger a market sell-off: Live updates.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.5 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 33.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.75 USD/Metric Tonne unch. 
• Crude Oil 91.38/bbl. -.8%. 
• Gold 4,331.0 USD/t oz. +.29%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.14 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.85 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 135.6 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.11% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.14% +6.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.78 +.24%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.36%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by utility and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.