Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,500.6 +1.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,564.7 +1.4%

• NASDAQ 26,517.9 +2.7%

• Russell 2000 2,979.8 +2.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 17,624.0 +3.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 325.6 +4.5%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 38.0 +3.0%

• Wilshire 5000 74,373.3 +1.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,964.9 +1.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,383.1 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 927.0 -2.2%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 262.7 +2.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 10,171.4 +5.3%

• Transports 21,637.9 -3.9%

• Utilities 1,120.0 +1.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 126.4 +9.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 70.7 +4.2%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 266.9 +2.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 135.0 +.54%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 617,986 +.5%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 -7.6%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 231 +118

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.7 +12.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 130,301 -16.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,006,635 -.9%

• Total Put/Call .89 +7.1%

• OEX Put/Call .26 +2.4%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.84 +59.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 122.3 +.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +12.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -13.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 55.0 -74.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 9.0 -22.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.49 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.58 -5.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,581.7 -1.0%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  92.8 +13.5

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.873 Trillion n/a

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$18.277 Million

• AAII % Bulls 36.6 +20.4%

• AAII % Bears 39.4 -17.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (FEAR) +3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 362.1 -2.4%

• Crude Oil 76.9/bbl. -11.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 297.92 -2.3%

• Natural Gas 3.22 +4.8%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 78.4 USD/Megawatt +3.5% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour -12.7%
  

• Heating Oil 312.7 -9.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 133.8 (1,000/metric ton) -7.8%

• Gold 4,203.0 +.2%
• Silver 65.2 -2.1%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 180.7 +.8%

• Copper 637.1 -.01%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 395.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.40 USD/Metric Tonne -2.2%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 24,600.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.64(price per million tokens) -6.2% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 64.59 +2.5%  

• CME Lumber 634.5 +2.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,352.2 +1.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 360.0 USD/Short Ton -6.7% 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.3 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.4 -1.0 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.10 +6.9%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 164.2 -16.4% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 75.0 +11.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% +9.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 361.2 +63.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.1
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.1% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.64 +1.26:  Growth Rate +24.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.53% +6.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 922.57 +11.50: Growth Rate +77.9% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 18.6 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.1 -7.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.7 +15.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -13.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 61.5%(-27.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 38.5%(+30.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 7/29

• US Dollar Index 100.9 +1.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,873.5 +.8%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 62,604.2 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 211.7 +.1%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.42 -1.0%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 27.25 -12.75 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.45% -3.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.78% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.678 Trillion n/a
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.035 Billion n/a

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.24 -.3%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.1 -3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 70.0 -3.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.9 -6.6%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.2 -4.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.3 -1.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.2 +7.4%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.2 -16.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.8 -5.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.25 +.35%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.39 +.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.3% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.9% +20.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.30% unch.: CPI YoY +4.01% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -42.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 13.5 +1.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.4 -1.2% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.6 -3.9%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 110.0 -27.9%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 441.75 -.3% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 213.0 -15.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.1 -4.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.7 -5.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 109.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 551.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.7% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,413.1B n/a

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 219,000 +1.8%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.5 +.5%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.57% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 269,500 -3.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +9.2% +10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% +6.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $258.7M -3.8%

• Nationwide Gas $4.00/gallon -.11/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,653.0 -2.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,868.9/40 ft Box +11.8%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,599.1 +13.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 215.0 +2.4%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 141.48 -12.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 289,447 -1.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,638,190 -8.2% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.9 +.3 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Leading Sectors

• Semis +9.0%

• AI Innovation +8.5%
• Airlines +8.3%

• Construction +5.8%
  

• I-Banks +5.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Gambling -4.9%

• Energy -6.6%
  

• Computer Services -9.3%

• Oil Service -11.0%
  

• Space -13.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (95)

• CAST, HQ, ODD, SWBI, MEI, WYFI, PENG, WOLF, MRVL, CHRN, ENTG, INTC, REAL, KMX, CIFR, MGTX, HNRG, WNC, MTN, DIOD, OUST, FVRR, SMR, LIND, ALAB, GLW, MAMA, CRNC, ICHR, LEU, SHAZ, CEVA, FCEL, SEZL, MKSI, NNE, BROS, DUOT, RBLX, HRI, RKT, PLAB, MIR, ALGM, CLPT, Q, COMP, EC, UUUU, VSH, TSM, OMER, BJRI, SIMO, TTWO, TLN, CPA, BBAR, PTRN, BDC, SKY, CART, EWTX, BDC, CHYM, GEV, EXP, WLY, SSD, OKTA, FRO, KLIC, OKTA, NPO, SNEX, OSW, WDC, MRNA, RMIX, IART, TRVI, UFPI, AMAT, PRM, LGND, TRVI, ORN, CEG, NPKI, MITK, CAT, MGRC, VST, AAL, POOL, MITK, MLM, MGRC, ZLAB and GCMG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)

• FCN, TEO, TCOM, SATA, IBM, MSTR, TDW, GIB, STLD, KR, INFY, GLOB, AAMI, EPAM, TNGX, LEGN, NVCR and ACN

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, AI Infrastructure Build-Out, Yen Weakness, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,182 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +26 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly CFTC speculative net positioning report, Northland Equity Growth Conference, (CAVA) annual meeting and the RTX AI PC Partner Summit could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• President Donald Trump signed an interim deal to end the war with Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump told reporters he signed the document at the palace of Versailles. 
• Strategists say markets are on watch for yen intervention after the Fed took a hawkish stance at Kevin Warsh’s debut meeting, triggering a drop in the currency to levels that have previously prompted Japan’s finance ministry to step in.
• Kevin Warsh began his tenure as chairman of the Fed with a solemn vow to curb inflation and a clear sign that he plans to swiftly revamp how the US central bank does its job. 
• Polymarket’s geopolitics category has become one of the platform’s fastest-growing markets. A few well-timed and profitable bets on Iran war policy have sparked new fears of insider trading.
• FOMC officials agreed to hold interest rates steady, but they apparently aren't in sync on using the dot plot. 
• The dollar surged the most in three months after Federal Reserve officials signaled growing support for interest-rate hikes this year. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @ZeroHedge

• Trump And Iran Sign MOU Deal Ahead Of Schedule. 
• *IRAN: US RESPONSIBLE TO FORCE ISRAEL TO ABIDE BY DEAL. 
• Iran's parliament speaker says that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to the pre-war situation -Fars. Ghalibaf adds that Iran has the right to charge fees for transit. MoU says that Iran and Oman will discuss SoH arrangements. 
• South Korea's Nuclear Site Selection Committee announced domestic sites as candidates for new large-scale nuclear power plants and SMRs, marking the first time in 14 years that a new nuclear power plant candidate site has been chosen. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP) plans to complete the construction of one SMR by 2035, and the construction of the two large-scale nuclear power plants in 2037 and 2038, respectively. 
• Apple to hike iPhone prices ~20% to offset soaring memory and storage costs and keep margins constant. 
• Burry's NVDA puts. 
• From Diablo Canyon Closure Fights To Record-Speed Renewals: The Nuclear Reversal. 
• COVID Origins, Lab-Leak Accountability, And The Next Pandemic Threat. 
• Congress Moves To Boost Drone Funding As "War Unicorns" See Possible Procurement Supercycle. 
• Rare Earth Stocks Pop After G7 Unveils Plan To Reduce Dependence On China For Critical Minerals. 
• How Deep Are The Newsoms In It?
• Iran has now published its version of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding through the official IRNA news agency. The two texts are largely identical, but there are some differences in wording and emphasis:      
• These Are The States Starting To Panic About AI Taking Over.
• The turnover rate for demand deposits at S.Korean banks surged to a 10-year high as retail and corporate investors prioritize liquidity for tactical asset allocation: i.e. so investors can rapidly move money from banks into stocks: local press.
• "Zero Hormuz Dependency": UAE Races To Rewire Energy Flows, Bypassing Chokepoint Chaos.
• *APPLE TO RAISE PRICES DUE TO MEMORY CHIP CRUNCH: WSJ. *COOK: NEVER SEEN COMMODITY PRICE SWING LIKE PAST 6 MONTHS: WSJ.
• Trump Invokes Defense Production Act As US Moves To Rebuild Weapons Stockpiles.
• Of The Elite, By The Elite, For The Elite.
• 40% chance of a July hike. 
• Markets Manic, Oil Flat As 'Hawks' Trump & Warsh Dominate, Liquidity Plummets.                  

• @CNBC

• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CME CEO Terrence Duffy says the exchange operator will sue CFTC over perpetual futures.
• Stock futures tick higher after Fed's hint of possible rate hike in 2026 spurs a sell-off: Live updates.
• SpaceX adds longtime Elon Musk ally Roelof Botha to board.
• Analysis: Chairman Kevin Warsh’s task forces are the key to understanding the new Fed.
• Here are the five big takeaways from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chairman. 
• Jeffrey Gundlach says Fed's Warsh is not going to be the 'easy money' chairman many hoped for.          

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 +.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 39.0 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.85 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%. 
• Crude Oil 75.62/bbl. -1.5% 
• Gold 4,337.0 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.47 unch.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.07 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 120.35 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.46% -3.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.76% +1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -2.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.50%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.75%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.25%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.