Monday, April 27, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @SusanCrabtree
  • @WallStEngine
  • Oracle said it will now power its Project Jupiter campus in New Mexico with up to 2.45 GW of Bloom Energy $BE fuel cells instead of gas turbines and diesel generators. The switch cuts NOx emissions by about 92% and keeps the AI data center on a single microgrid campus.
  • $SEI Q1’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS: Revenue: $196M (Est. $182.66M) ; +9% sequentially. Adj. EPS: $0.44 (Est. $0.33). Adjusted EBITDA: $84M; +22% sequentially. Third Long-Term Power Contract: Signed with affiliate of an investment-grade global technology company for over 600 MW of power capacity; 10-year term with 5-year extension option. Q2 Guide: Adj EBITDA: $83M-$93M, RAISED from prior $76M-$84M. 
  • $SANM Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS: Revenue: $4.01B (Est. $3.29B). EPS: $3.16 (Est. $2.40). Q3 Guide: Revenue: $3.2B-$3.5B (Est. $3.52B). EPS: $2.55-$2.85 (Est. $2.53). FY Guide: Revenue: $13.7B-$14.3B (Est. $13.72B). EPS: $10.75-$11.35 (Est. $10.02). 
  • @TheInsidePaper
  • @The_JBS
  • The 57 Republicans who voted No on the amendment to STOP the government from controlling your car. Mark E. Amodei (NV) Don Bacon (NE) Stephanie Bice (OK) Gus Bilirakis (FL) Mike Bost (IL) Ken Calvert (CA) John R. Carter (TX) Tom Cole (OK) Mario Diaz-Balart (FL) Neal Dunn (FL) Chuck Edwards (NC) Jake Ellzey (TX) Randy Feenstra (IA) Randy Fine (FL) Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) Chuck Fleischmann (TN) Vince Fong (CA) Andrew Garbarino (NY) Carlos A. Gimenez (FL) French Hill (AR) Jeff Hurd (CO) Brian Jack (GA) John James (MI) David Joyce (OH) Thomas Kean Jr. (NJ) Mike Kelly (PA) Jen Kiggans (VA) Kevin Kiley (CA) Young Kim (CA) Kimberlyn King-Hinds (MP – Northern Mariana Islands) Darin LaHood (IL) Nick LaLota (NY) Mike Lawler (NY) Frank Lucas (OK) Nicole Malliotakis (NY) Celeste Maloy (UT) Brian Mast (FL) Dan Meuser (PA) Max Miller (OH) Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA) Tim Moore (NC) Blake Moore (UT) James Moylan (GU – Guam) Greg Murphy (NC) Dan Newhouse (WA) Zach Nunn (IA) Hal Rogers (KY) Maria Elvira Salazar (FL) Mike Simpson (ID) Elise Stefanik (NY) Glenn Thompson (PA) Mike Turner (OH) David Valadao (CA) Derrick Van Orden (WI) Rob Wittman (VA) Steve Womack (AR) Ryan Zinke (MT).
  • @songpinganq
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @LaurenLee
  • @JackDangerLIVE
  • @WimdenOudsten
  • @illuminatibot
  • @allenanalysis
  • @JamesJonesik8
  • @alfa_kurt
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 unch. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.0 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%. 
  • Crude Oil 97.51/bbl. +1.2% 
  • Gold 4,691.7 USD/t oz. -.04%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.68 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.60 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 116.4 -.2%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.69% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing High into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.5 -.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.6 -.03% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 +.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 160.9 +.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 66.5 -2.0% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.2 -.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.7 -3.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -51.5 -3.1
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -3.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(139 of 500 reporting) +24.8% -.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 343.60 +1.60:  Growth Rate +24.0% +.6 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.12% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 823.53 +2.42: Growth Rate +108.0% +.6 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.3 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 53.5 basis points (2s/10s) +3.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.6 -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.9% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.64 +10.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 94.9% (+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 88.8%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -395 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -68 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +185 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants -1.7% 2) Airlines -1.6% 3) Gold & Silver -1.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • COHU, CHTR, LBRDK, FCEL, HLNE, TAL, CEVA, CAR, WOLF, AOSL, FORM, ARM, ERAS, DPZ, AEHR, NUCL, RMBS, PDFS, WLDN, MXL, LPTH and VELO
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ESI 2) POET 3) ERAS 4) MTUM 5) OGN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) POET 2) ARM 3) DPZ 4) NKTR 5) GOSS
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) XLU 4) XLI 5) GDX

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear +1.8% 2) Gambling +1.6% 3) Regional Banks +1.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MANE, OGN, RVI, CRML, ORKA, ANAB, UAMY, BEAM, EFOR, XOMA, UEC, CLF, JBIO, NE, CPRX, LION, FLR, WBTN, NPKI, PRE, CRSP, SMR, MSM, CNOB, OKLO, SRAD, MU, ARLP, ADUR, KSPI, OOMA, FHB and AMP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VZLA 2) INDI 3) GXO 4) P 5) ESTC 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CRML 2) FLXS 3) MANE 4) OGN 5) SNDK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) DRAM 3) FDN 4) RSPN 5) KRE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AB)/.83
  • (AMT)/2.70
  • (ARCB)/.29
  • (AWI)/1.81
  • (AVY)/2.43
  • (KO)/.81
  • (GLW)/.69
  • (GM)/2.60
  • (HRI)/-.21
  • (INCY)/1.33
  • (ITRI)/1.24
  • (JBLU)/-.73
  • (KMB)/1.93
  • (PCAR)/1.15
  • (SPGI)/4.82
  • (SHW)/2.27
  • (SFD)/.59
  • (SPOT)/2.95
  • (UPS)/1.02
  • (ZBH)/1.87 
After the Close: 
  • (ASH)/.96
  • (BE)/.13
  • (BKNG)/1.07
  • (BXP)/1.58
  • (CZR)/-.24
  • (EIX)/1.32
  • (EQR)/.97
  • (FFIV)/3.46
  • (FE)/.72
  • (IR)/.74
  • (LSTR)/1.13
  • (MIR)/.10
  • (NBR)/-2.49
  • (NXPI)/2.98
  • (PPG)/2.24
  • (HOOD)/.39
  • (STX)/3.51
  • (SBUX)/.43
  • (TER)/2.11
  • (V)/3.10
  • (WELL)/1.44
  • (WERN)/-.06 
Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Feb. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Jan.
  • The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for Feb. is estimated to rise +.14% versus a +.16% gain in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to rise to 1.0 versus 0.0 in March.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April is estimated to fall to 89.0 versus 91.8 in March. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 7Y T-Note auction, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, M2 Money Supply MoM for March, Texas Services Sector Outlook for April, API weekly crude oil stock report, (AN) general meeting, (IBM) annual meeting, (CF) annual meeting, (WFC) annual meeting, (APTV) annual meeting, (WMB) annual meeting, (PCAR) annual meeting, (AEP) annual meeting, (EXC) annual meeting and the (CEG) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +1.8
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 53.9% of Issues Advancing, 43.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .90 -42.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$56.2M
  • 99 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
  • 57.9% (-.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 +.5
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 90+ days 73.0% +4.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 57.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 35.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 37.0% -1.0 percentage point
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 116.3 +1.4%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 504.0 -3.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.0 +.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 145.2 -.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.1% -39.4%
  • Vix 18.5 -1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +9.0%