Tuesday, April 28, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @TheTranscript 
  • The benefits of AI being cited:
  • Bloom Energy CEO: "Bloom is rapidly becoming the standard and 'go-to choice' for on-site power." $BE: +14% AH.
  • Bookings Holdings CEO: "Despite headwinds associated with the Middle East conflict, we are pleased to report a solid start to 2026, with Adjusted EBITDA growth of 19% (net income growth of 225%), alongside 15% growth in gross bookings and 16% revenue growth". $BKNG: -5% AH.
  • Seagate Technology CEO: "Seagate delivered outstanding March quarter results, exceeding the high end of our revenue and EPS guidance, achieving record margin performance, and generating close to $1 billion in free cash flow". $STX: +14% AH.
  • NXP Semis CEO: "NXP delivered quarterly revenue of $3.18 billion, up 12% year over year, with broad-based improvement across all of our focus end markets...The momentum we have built is expected to accelerate through the remainder of 2026." $NXPI: +15% AH.
  • Visa double beat CEO: "Consumer spending remained resilient." $V: +4% AH. 
  • @WallStEngine
  • $TER Q1’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.28B (Est. $1.21B) ; +87% y/y. Adj. EPS: $2.56 (Est. $2.10). Semiconductor Test Revenue: $1.111B. AI-Related Demand: Approx. 70% of revenue tied to AI-related demand. Q2 Guide: Revenue: $1.15B-$1.25B (Est. $1.20B). GAAP EPS: $1.83-$2.12 (Est. $1.98). Non-GAAP EPS: $1.86-$2.15.
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @realannapaulina
  • @Laurenlee
  • @TheFirstonTV
  • @C_3C_3
  • Want to hear something crazy? The Republicans are one fair election away from destroying the Marxist Democrats and the Marxist Democrats are one stolen election away from destroying America. Passing the SAVE America Act is that important.
  • @HealthRanger
  • @annvandersteel
  • @USGS has found that the Appalachian region of the U.S. contains enough lithium to replace 328 YEARS of imports! Thanks to world-leading mineral science, permitting reform and renewed investment in domestic mining, @POTUS has reclaimed America's mineral independence. That’s why Hurricane Helene happened.
  • @1776General_
  • @CollinRugg
  • @Resist_CBDC
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @BowesChay
  • @DrJesseMorse
  • @LuckyMcGee
  • @NicHulscher
  • @DomFreePress
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 +.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
  • Crude Oil 100.14/bbl. +.2% 
  • Gold 4,606.4 USD/t oz. -.07%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.67 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.58 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 116.8 +.1%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.67% -3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.7 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.09%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.13%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, AI Infrastructure Build Out Worries, Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.1 +1.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 75.5 +1.0% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .21 -2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 -6.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.1 +.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.0 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 68.2 +2.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 +.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.4 -.3
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.7 -2.2
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.9 +6.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(170 of 500 reporting) +24.0% -.8 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 343.74 +.14:  Growth Rate +24.0% unch., P/E 20.7 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.10% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 823.81 +.28: Growth Rate +108.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.3 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .94 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.1 -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.3 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.8% -1.1 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.35% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.28 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 96.9% (+2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 90.7%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -677 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -4.7% 2) AI Innovation -3.8% 3) Semis -3.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BSTZ, AMKR, VECO, FSUN, CDNS, WSO, BBIO, CPS, TMDX, PCAR, LPTH, UHS, AWI, UHS, AOSL, GLW, ARM, FORM, ALLE, SFD, GMTL, NUCL, AEHR, ARE, CEVA, ZBH, QGEN, PNR, RLAY, SRAD, SPOT, ANL, WOLF, CLS, NVTS, RMBS and VISN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) KBE 2) SPOT 3) TEVA 4) ERAS 5) PGY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SPOT 2) RMBS 3) PSIX 4) ERAS 5) AVGO
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLE 3) XLP 4) SOXX 5) XLI

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers +1.8% 2) Computer Services +1.7% 3) Energy +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • KFRC, OMCL, KNSA, SANM, RMAX, CNC, CVLT, HRI, RVMD, CECO, THR, GTLB, AXGN, PII, CSIQ, OPRA, TFII, WLDN, KO, NUE, NWBI, LGIH, BEN, BWLP, HLNE, ARLP, ALHC, AVB, NTLA, IX and NOK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GMAB 2) KBE 3) KOPN 4) BBBY 5) RMBS 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) KNSA 2) CNC 3) SANM 4) PII 5) NUE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) DRAM 4) KRE 5) XLK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABBV)/2.59
  • (APH)/.94
  • (ADP)/3.29
  • (CAR)/-6.83
  • (BIIB)/2.96
  • (EAT)/2.86
  • (BG)/.88
  • (CNI)/1.80
  • (CRS)/2.63
  • (EME)/5.90
  • (ETR)/.84
  • (EVR)/5.43
  • (FSS)/.88
  • (GNRC)/1.33
  • (GD)/3.67
  • (GSK)/1.15
  • (HUM)/10.20
  • (LMND)/-.57
  • (ODFL)/1.05
  • (PSX)/-.53
  • (REGN)/8.91
  • (SMG)/4.01
  • (SWK)/.59
  • (VMC)/1.10
  • (YUMC)/.85
  • (YUM)/1.38 
After the Close: 
  • (AFL)/1.79
  • (ALGN)/2.30
  • (ALL)/7.31
  • (GOOG)/2.63
  • (AMZN)/1.63
  • (CHRW)/1.23
  • (CP)/1.07
  • (CVNA)/1.58
  • (CAKE)/1.01
  • (CMG)/.24
  • (EBAY)/1.58
  • (EQIX)/11.00
  • (ETD)/.20
  • (FLS)/.80
  • (F)/.18
  • (FORM)/.44
  • (FTAI)/1.50
  • (KLAC)/9.17
  • (META)/6.69
  • (MGM)/.50
  • (MSFT)/4.06
  • (MYRG)/2.05
  • (ORLY)/.70
  • (PPC)/.65
  • (PLXS)/1.88
  • (QCOM)/2.56
  • (RRR)/.90
  • (SFM)/1.68
  • (TTMI)/.67
  • (WWD)/2.10
  • (WH)/.86 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Retail Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for March is estimated to widen to -$87.9B versus -$83.5B in Feb.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.
  • Housing Starts for March is estimated at 1381K.
  • Building Permits for March is estimated at 1390K.
  • Durable Goods Orders for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a -1.3% decline in Feb.
  • Durables Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in Feb.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in Feb. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a crude oil inventory gain of +247,500 barrels versus a +1,925,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,575,170 barrels versus a -4,570,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,300,170 barrels versus a -3,427,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.03% versus a -.5% decline prior.

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate unch. at 3.5-3.75%. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC press conference, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (KRMN) annual meeting, (SAIA) general meeting, (GS) annual meeting, (CGNX) annual meeting, (GWW) annual meeting, (POOL) annual meeting, (SAH) general meeting, (PHM) annual meeting, (KO) annual meeting and the (CSL) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.7% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.4 -2.7
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 43.3% of Issues Advancing, 54.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .75 -21.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$63.2M
  • 62 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
  • 57.5% (-.02%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 53.7 -3.3
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 90+ days 50.0% -23.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 61.0% +4.0 percentage points
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 34.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 31.0% -6.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 116.0 -.5%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 506.0 +2.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.0 -1.4%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.0 -2.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 10.8% +2.5%
  • Vix 18.6 +3.2%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +11.0%