Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,722.7 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,176.9 -1.3%

• NASDAQ 27,190.9 +.5%

• Russell 2000 2,832. -.2%

• NYSE FANG+ 19,211.6 -.7%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 305.4 -1.7%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 38.8 -1.4%

• Wilshire 5000 76,132.5 -.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 5,117.6 +.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,452.6 -1.0%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 899.4 -1.9%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 274.5 +.4% 
  

• NYSE Technology 10,261.5 +1.6%

• Transports 20,009.8 +2.2%

• Utilities 1,018.0 +.8%

• MSCI Europe Banks 135.6 -5.3%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 67.92 -.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 264.8 -.2%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 138.2 +.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 609,303 -.6%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.0 -9.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,244 -94

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -16.7 -7.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 141,106 +3.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,841,811 -5.8%

• Total Put/Call .77 +2.7%

• OEX Put/Call .81 unch.

• Equity Put/Call .71 +14.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.16 +13.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 137.0 -.2%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 -18.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -29.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +3.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .70 -8.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.5 +13.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.21 +3.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.69 +.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 16,607.5 +4.0%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 42.0 -7.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.891 Trillion n/a

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.783 Million

• AAII % Bulls 34.6 +5.8%

• AAII % Bears 46.5 -3.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) -5.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 410.1 -2.0%

• Crude Oil 91.5/bbl. -1.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 331.6 +4.0%

• Natural Gas 3.04 -5.4%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 78.2 USD/Megawatt -13.4% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 76.24 euros/megawatt-hour +7.9%
  

• Heating Oil 455.0 -5.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 149.3 (1,000/metric ton) +5.6%

• Gold 4,144.2 -3.3%
• Silver 60.5 -5.9%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 173.4 -4.3%

• Copper 658.5 -2.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.7 USD/Metric Tonne -3.4%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 19,025.0 USD/metric tonne -8.1%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .98(price per million tokens) +1.0% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 49.6 -.8%  

• CME Lumber 526.50 -1.2%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,565.2 -.6%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 352.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 441.0 USD/Short Ton -2.5%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% -140.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.4 -.1 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.9 -3.0%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 181.7 +20.0% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 75.0 +15.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 20.0% -70.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 160.6 -16.9%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.3
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +178.0% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.46 +n/a:  Growth Rate +23.9% +n/a percentage point, P/E 19.0 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,079.47 +n/a: Growth Rate +60.8% +n/a percentage point, P/E 17.8 -n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.7 -8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 74.5 -8.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.60 +6.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 77.3%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of no change, 22.7%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 10/28

• US Dollar Index 101.9 +.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,920.9 -.2%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 84,079 -.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 203.7 -.9%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.10 -.25%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 44.75 +14.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 5.28% +12.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.20% +4.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.696 Trillion -.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.871 Billion +8.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.84 +13.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 201.0 +5.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 115.0 +23.0 basis points
• France Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 85.6 +46.3% 
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.4 +29.5%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.8 +9.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 131.4 +3.6%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.3 -.2%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.8 +.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.0 +2.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.6 -1.3%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.4 -.6%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.5% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.02% -38.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.60% +10.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 +25.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 24.75 -2.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.0 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 -5.0 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 60.2 +3.3% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.8 -1.4%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 155.0 +49.8%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 447.5 +5.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 222.0 +4.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.9 +9.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 167.4 +11.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 563.0 +12.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .43 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.7% +30.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,406.7B -3.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 200,000 -1.2%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.7 -2.8%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.25% +16.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 213,600 -6.0%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.20% unch.
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +19.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $150.8M +31.1%

• Nationwide Gas $4.40/gallon -.09/gallon 
• Nationwide Diesel $6.37/gallon -.17/gallon 

• Baltic Dry Index 3,140.0 -8.4%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,433.9/40 ft Box -.8%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,923.9 +1.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 500.0 -4.8%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 103.5 +.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 301,610 +.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,723,082 +38.8% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.8 +1.0 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +1.2%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -1.1%

Leading Sectors

• Lithography/Photonics +7.7%

• Networking +4.3%
• Semis +3.9%

• Cyber Security +3.8%
  

• Energy +2.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Service -2.9%

• Pharma -3.6%
  

• Airlines -5.1%

• Gold & Silver -5.8%
  

• Gambling -7.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)

• XRPN, MXL, SYNA, WOLF, WNC, VSH, RXO, AZTA, VECO, IBRX, ELMT, ALGM, HPE, SPCX, AAOI, QMCO, QGEN, STM, VIAV, SMTC, LW, NTAP, AVT, ARW, LSCC, CRDO, ON, TECK, HLIO, MATW, USFD, AVLN, ARHS, CLMT and PDO

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• BBSI, HQH, RIVN, NKE, GRND, DBVT, MMYT, NKTR, AXGN, GDS, TH, WDC, STX and IART

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Attractive Valuations, Technical Buying, Tech/Space Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,410 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -244 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +11 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +143 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.4 in Aug.
• ISM Services Prices Paid for Sept. is estimated to rise to 73.0 versus 72.6 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Conference Board Employment Trends Index for Sept., (MRVL) investor day and the (CGNX) non-deal road show could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Iran’s foreign minister suggested in private talks that his country was willing to restore nuclear inspectors’ access to bombed facilities in exchange for sanctions relief, people familiar with the discussions said. 
• The Trump administration is ramping up pressure on the EU to release diesel stockpiles, a move seen potentially averting a ban on US exports of the critical fuel. 
• RTX won a deal worth $24.4 billion to accelerate production of a key anti-air and anti-surface missile for the US Navy. 
• A new report shows the complexity of solving the national shortage of plumbers and electricians. 
• Retail investors are poised to pile back into US stocks this month after a sharp cooldown in September, Citadel Securities’ head of equity and equity derivatives strategy Scott Rubner said. 
• Oil and gas flows are increasing through the Strait of Hormuz. A tanker captain's first-hand account of the perilous journey shows how. 
• US funding markets could face disruptions from traders seeking to profit from a continued march higher in Treasury yields. 
• Top artificial intelligence firms are working to convince people to use their tools for more sensitive tasks. 
• The risk premium in euro-area government bonds shoot up, a sign that concerns around France’s fiscal and political situation are starting to spill over into other markets. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.       

• @ZeroHedge

• The $40 Billion Minerals Gamble: Can Trump Break China's Chokehold Before The West's Rearmament Hits A Wall?         
• BBG report of a pre-Thanksgiving IPO by Anthropic sent odds the company goes public by November to 70%. Ant is in a far bigger rush to reload capital unlike OpenAI which is now happy to wait well into 2027.
• 3 Huge Storms Will Combine Over The Central United States To Form A Gigantic "Hybrid Storm" That Will Cause Widespread Flooding.
• Bridgewater CEO Warns Unregulated AI Could Trigger 'Societal Breakdown' - Even As The Firm Profits From It.
• While Subprime Auto Loans Default, Their Bonds Somehow Keep Performing.
• Waste Of The Day: IRS Enforcement Delayed.
• That's odd: the "$109 billion in demand' for PSKY bonds was nowhere to be found after the break today when all tranches (especially HY) dumped and all those who didn't get an allocation could have bought at a big discount. strange how that works.
• Cotton Calls For Military Supply Chain Security Review After F-35 Parts Diverted To Hong Kong.
• *ONSEMI TO BUY SYNAPTICS FOR $123/SHR CASH IN REVISED DEAL.
• Remembering The False Gloom And Doom Of The 1992 Elections... And The Upcoming Midterms.    
• France Erupts Into Chaos As "Rioting Migrant" Kids Torch Schools And Busses.                  
• FHFA set to ease credit data requirement for Fannie and Freddie. *FAIR ISAAC SHARES FALL 4% POSTMARKET. *EQUIFAX DOWN 3.4%, TRANSUNION FALLS 2.6% AFTER-HOURS.         
• Stocks, Bonds, & Oil All Up Amid 'Red October' Rout Across Europe. 

• @CNBC  

• INTERPOL says AI is increasing the speed and scale of cyber threats. Here’s what companies should watch.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as September jobs report looms: Live updates.
• CNBC Daily Open: Three’s a crowd: U.S. carrier buildup in Middle East sends oil spiking.    

• @WallStEngine

• $GOOGL JUST PUT ITS AI CHIPS INTO ORBIT FOR THE FIRST TIME. Google and Planet Labs. $PL have successfully launched Project Suncatcher M1 aboard SpaceX’s Transporter-18 mission. Planet says it has already made contact with the spacecraft and begun commissioning. This is the first-ever in-orbit test of Google’s Tensor Processing Units, or TPUs. The refrigerator-sized prototype carries four Trillium TPUs, Google’s custom AI accelerators. This is not yet an orbital data center. The goal is to see whether the same type of AI hardware Google uses on Earth can survive launch and reliably run machine-learning workloads in low Earth orbit.
• Nike $NKE CEO Elliott Hill: “Overall, there’s a lack of energy in the lifestyle space right now, which is impacting traffic”. “Yes, the consumer is cautious". "But as the leader in the industry, it’s on us to bring more creativity to sportswear”. Note: China Q1 rev was down 26%.
• Anthropic to meet prospective IPO investors on Oct. 14 at its San Francisco headquarters, Bloomberg reports. A select group of institutional investors will reportedly get the chance to question senior executives ahead of a potential November listing. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 +2.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 36.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.20 USD/Metric Tonne -1.5%. 
• Crude Oil 92.83/bbl. -.04%. 
• Gold 4,188.8 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.07 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.59 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 135.7 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.26% +2.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.20% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.