Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,469.7 -1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 52,171.3 -.8%

• NASDAQ 25,537.2 -2.7%

• Russell 2000 2,958.4 -.7%

• NYSE FANG+ 17,237.4 -2.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 312.0 -4.1%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 33.8 -6.5%

• Wilshire 5000 73,950.8 -1.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,817.7 -3.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,438.7 +.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 941.0 +1.2%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 258.9 -1.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 9,019.9 -7.2%

• Transports 22,712.8 +2.4%

• Utilities 1,149.5 unch.

• MSCI Europe Banks 132.7 +.9%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 63.50 -4.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 269.21 +.01%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 137.22 +.84%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 623,357 +.3%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.2 -6.7%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 216 -52

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -10.2 +31.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 75,749 -31.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,905,761 -.5%

• Total Put/Call .93 +12.5%

• OEX Put/Call .17 unch.

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 unch.

• NYSE Arms 1.0 +4.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.6 -3.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.28 -21.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 18.62 +18.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .90 +18.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 8.84 +17.7%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 5.86 -3.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.51 -2.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,376.4 +1.1%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  95.6 +12.6

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.893 Trillion -.8%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$42.545 Million

• AAII % Bulls 44.9 +23.7%

• AAII % Bears 32.9 -11.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (Moved to FEAR from NEUTRAL) -7.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 375.97 +2.7%

• Crude Oil 82.34/bbl. +15.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 339.0 +14.7%

• Natural Gas 2.91 -1.0%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 81.2 USD/Megawatt -.6% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 58.5 euros/megawatt-hour +21.2%
  

• Heating Oil 406.9 +15.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 133.0 (1,000/metric ton) +3.1%

• Gold 4,012.1 -2.6%
• Silver 56.14 -6.5%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 172.7 -.3%

• Copper 626.4 -.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 378.0 USD/Metric Tonne -6.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 24,025.0 USD/metric tonne +1.4%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.57(price per million tokens) -3.6% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 47.26 +2.6%  

• CME Lumber 637.0 +.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,460.9 +4.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 386.5 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% +.4 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.4 +.9 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.61 -16.4%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 154.3 -17.7% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 54.0 -2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 87.0% +15.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 427.5 +62.5%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(47 of 500 reporting) +52.4% -84.4 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 375.20 +2.26:  Growth Rate +27.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.1 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.65% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +510.0% -716.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 907.59 +7.04: Growth Rate +75.0% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 19.3 -.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.2 -2.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.5 +4.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.0 -6.0 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 87.7%(+21.9 percentage points) chance of no change, 12.3%(-21.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 7/29

• US Dollar Index 100.77 -.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,869.7 +.3%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 63,901.3 -.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 212.5 +.7%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.40 -.1%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 37.0 +1.25 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.54% -3.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.87% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.696 Trillion +.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.607 Billion -15.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.3 +.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.1 -.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 82.0 +8.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.6 +2.7%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.7 +3.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 125.2 +1.3%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.7 +11.4%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.0 +5.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 +3.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 unch.
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 117.56 -.5%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.3% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.1% +20.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% -10.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% -50.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.33% -10.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.32% -60.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.16 -15.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -1.0 basis point

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 20.0 -6.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.0 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 -.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.07 +1.8% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.1 +.2%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 104.0 -4.7%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 455.25 +1.9% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 197.0 -4.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.8 +2.8%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 144.7 +3.5%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 111.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 557.0 +2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .45 -1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.6% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,388.7B -.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,250 -2.2%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.3 -3.6%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.60% +4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 259.100 -2.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.20% -190.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% unch.
• Box Office Weekly Gross $190.0M -25.2%

• Nationwide Gas $3.98/gallon +.10/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,840.0 -3.5%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,546.6/40 ft Box -2.0%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,910.7 +2.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 200.0 -4.8%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 128.77 +28.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 280,485 +4.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,850,229 +13.9% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 -.5 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 43.0% -2.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -3.0%

Leading Sectors

• Energy +6.7%

• Shipping +2.5%
• Regional Banks +2.4%

• Road & Rail +2.3%
  

• REITs +2.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -7.2%

• Semis -8.6%
  

• AI Innovation -9.3%

• Space -10.3%
  

• Computer Services -22.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (20)

• FEIM, DRTS, PESI, SLS, TRVI, ETON, ORKA, GPRE, FBRX, SION, CADL, SONO, TRV, BJRI, XMTR, MMED, LOGI, IIIN and FIG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (14)

• MNST, WSE, WAFD, SKM, AA, ALV, SHOE, INDB, NN, NFLX, STAA, SNPS, CDNS and ISRG

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mideast War Escalation Fears, Surging Oil, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Medical Equipment Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,140 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -126 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating n/a open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges 
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMC)/.00
• (DPZ)/4.16 

After the Close: 

• (BOKF)/2.68
• (CCK)/2.16
• (STLD)/3.64
• (WRB)/1.08
• (WTFC)/3.15
• (ZION)/1.57 

Economic Releases 

 10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.1% gain in May. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNEX) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 15% US global tariff expiration could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• The US launched fresh strikes against Iran on Thursday, the fifth straight day of attacks as shipping traffic slumped in the critical Strait of Hormuz. 
• Iran’s speedboats, missiles, drones and mines have shown they can still wreak havoc in the Strait of Hormuz, defying daily strikes from the most powerful navy in the world. 
• The US-Israel war with Iran was supposed to blow up energy markets, but that hasn’t happened yet. In this weekly documentary, Bloomberg Originals explains why.
• Fed’s Logan Favors Modestly Higher Rates to Lower Inflation.
• Twenty-nine countries, including Russia, have joined the China-led World AI Cooperation Organization, as Beijing steps up its bid to rival the US in shaping artificial intelligence. 
• Coca-Cola said it had temporarily suspended production operations of its Fairlife milk in the US after an unauthorized third party gained access to some of its systems. 
• Chevron expects to sign accords with Iraq on Friday that will advance its negotiations about investing in large oil fields, according to a senior company executive. 
• US mortgage rates rose to the highest level in almost a year, as a flareup in tensions in the Middle East renewed concerns about inflation. 
• Profit margins for US refiners making gasoline and diesel from crude oil are shattering records, as fuel supply disruptions driven by war lift prices for refined products. 
• The biggest US banks, fresh off a blowout quarter driven by a trading frenzy, shrunk their workforces by the most in at least six years. 
• FDA to Warn of Taco Bell Lettuce in 5 States Over Parasite. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge

• Heavy Overnight Iranian Attack On Bahrain, Gulf Allies, After US Launched 6th Straight Night Of Strikes.  
• "The Killer Chokepoint": China's Rare Earth Squeeze Is Reshaping The Global Economy.
• *TRUMP: URGES CONGRESS TO PASS SAVE AMERICA ACT. *TRUMP: DIRECTED DHS TO REMOVE INELIGIBLE VOTER REGISTRATIONS.   
• *TRUMP: DHS SAYS 278K NON-CITIZENS REGISTERED TO VOTE. *TRUMP: RELEASING FILES ON ALLEGED VOTER FRAUD IN MICHIGAN.
• *TRUMP: REPORTS PROVE VOTING MACHINES EXPOSED TO ATTACK.
• *TRUMP: CHINA WORKED TO INFLUENCE BUSINESSES AGAINST PRESIDENT. *TRUMP: CHINA ATTEMPTED TO MANUFACTURE BALLOTS FOR BIDEN. *TRUMP: ASKING AGENCIES TO INVESTIGATE CHINA MEDDLING COVERUP.
• A large number of ambulances and fire trucks are moving toward the King Fahd Causeway, which connects Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The causeway was apparently the target of the Iranian attack.
• *JAPAN’S NIKKEI 225 SLIDES 4% AS TECH SLUMPS ON AI JITTERS.
• Visualizing China's Role In Stabilizing Oil Markets.
• "Not Seen Since World War II": New Texas Shipyard To Hire 10,000 Workers And Mass-Produce Drone Boats.
• Trump Teleprompter Operator Made $100K Betting On Kalshi Markets Tied To Speeches.
• Canada's Wildfire Management Failures Choke Millions Of Americans With Toxic Smoke.
• Good Sentiment, Bad (Home) Sales, Ugly Semis; Stocks, Bonds, & Gold Weak Amid Summer Doldrums.          

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump takes the stage — without his longtime teleprompter operator. 
• SoftBank sinks 8% as Japanese chip stocks track Wall Street AI sell-off. 
• SpaceX aborts Starship test flight, sending stock lower. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as major averages head for losing week; Netflix tumbles after earnings: Live updates. 

• @TheTranscript

• Intuitive CFO: "Revenue rose 19%, Non-GAAP operating margin was 42%, and Non-GAAP earnings per share increased 28% from the prior year. Strength in our financial results continued to reflect robust adoption of da Vinci 5 and SP" $ISRG: -11% AH.
• Netflix CEO: "Q2 revenue of $12.6B was in-line with forecast and grew 13% year over year (+12% on a foreign exchange (F/X) neutral basis), driven primarily by membership growth, pricing and increased ad revenue" $NFLX: -8% AH.

• @MarioNawful

• Look at this insane footage of a pilot flying right through those massive Canadian wildfire plumes. With 830+ fires burning, they’re pumping smoke way up into the sky. It’s drifting south and wrecking the air quality across the Midwest and Northeast. Absolute climate chaos. (video) 
• Ben Jordan says Flock cameras are being placed near daycare centers and children’s gymnastics facilities. That’s where this stops feeling like a debate about stolen cars and starts feeling deeply personal. Parents are told these systems exist for safety, but when surveillance quietly spreads into places where children spend their days, people deserve clear answers: Who is being tracked? How long is the data kept? Who can access it? And where does this expansion end? A camera installed “for protection” can become permanent surveillance before the public even realizes the rules have changed. (video) 

• @EricLDaugh

• IT'S OFFICIAL: ABC, CBS and NBC are REFUSING to carry President Trump's 9PM primetime White House address on election integrity out of panic, and will instead play it on their "live now" streams with far less viewers. The networks are TERRIFIED! EXPOSE IT ALL, 47. Make no mistake, they will NOT be able to ignore their way out of this. (video)
• NOW: President Trump's 9PM address tonight will involve CHINA and might be "the most important Oval Office address since the Cuban Missile Crisis," per Sen. Bernie Moreno. NO WONDER ABC and NBC REFUSE TO AIR IT. MORENO: "I was just briefed by the White House on what to expect this evening...The time for complacency with China is over." (video)
• WTF?! President Trump reveals the Biden administration policies BLOCKED chips companies from getting investments if they weren't transgender-run or operated. "This ridiculous CHIPS act, billions of dollars...if you weren't transgender, as an example, you didn't qualify! They'd look all over for transgender people to run the company, large portions. Couldn't find them! They weren't into the chip making business I guess. The BIDEN FOOLS, these IDIOTS." (video) 

• @EmeraldRobinson

• So Brad Parscale is a registered agent of Israel and he suddenly became the chief strategy officer for Salem Media? Isn't Salem a Christian conservative broadcasting company? And JD Vance just called them out? Very interesting.

• @Barchart

• Nasdaq 100 $QQQ has moved 1% up or down in 20 of the 26 last trading days Since 2000, this has only happened during Covid, the Bear Market of 2022, the Global Financial Crisis, and the Dot Com Bubble. (graph)
• JUST IN : Nasdaq 100 $QQQ is on track for its worst July in 22 years. 

• @IGraceAshford

• An ER nurse points out that Charlie Kirk was not taken to the ER after he got shot. If Charlie Kirk arrived at an emergency department, how come no one saw him? No triage. No staff. No patients. No witnesses. That’s not how an ER works. The more details emerge, the stranger this gets. (video)

• @RyanDetrick

• The number of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day MA continues to trend higher and is close to 70%, the highest level since February. This is not bearish action and suggests the surprise summer rally has legs. (graph)

• @XRoboHub

• Okay, this is genuinely impressive. Oli just worked through a roomful of household chores — no teleop, no cuts, one continuous take. (video)

• @unusual_whales

• 1.2 million Korean investors have been hit with margin calls this last week, reportedly 1 in every 30 working-age adults, per CT.

• @itsmichaelluu

• The AI "bubble" already popped. Average drawdown: -42% from peaks so far: (list)

• @MrAustinPredict

• BREAKING: Michigan officially has the WORST air quality on the PLANET — outpacing India, China, and the Republic of Congo — by A LOT. A 518 AQI because CANADA can’t get their wildfires under control. This level of micro dust causes LONG-TERM irreversible lung damage. (pic)

• @Geiger_Capital

• We must ban golf courses immediately… Golf courses vs Data centers: (graph)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -3.5% to -1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 +1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
• Crude Oil 79.62/bbl. +.79% 
• Gold 3,981.60 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.38 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.59 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -1.5%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.55% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.84% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 +2.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.83%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.61%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Sector Rotation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.50 +1.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.9 +.1%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 142.6 +1.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 61.3 -2.2% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 -2.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.7 +6.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +1.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.3 -2.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(41 of 500 reporting) +54.8% -5.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 374.41 +.87:  Growth Rate +26.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.64% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 906.27 +1.21: Growth Rate +74.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.5 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.21 +5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 41.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 174.8 +.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.4% -.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.7% +40.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.57% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.13 +3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+4.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 48.1%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -750 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -248 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -32 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +75 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% net long