Thursday, August 13, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC  
  • @WallStEngine
  • Ramp’s July AI Index: Anthropic was used by 43.5% of U.S. businesses, up 1.1pp MoM. OpenAI: 39.7%, +0.23pp. xAI: 4.0%, +0.94pp. Anthropic’s Fable 5 accounted for just 6% of tokens purchased and 11.4% of spend. GPT-5.6 Sol accounted for 25% of OpenAI tokens and 23% of spend.  
  • WHITE HOUSE TO HOST CRYPTO, PREDICTION MARKET EXECUTIVES NEXT WEEK: POLITICO.
  • APPLIED MATERIALS $AMAT Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $9.12B (Est. $8.99B) ; +25% YoY. Adj. EPS: $3.50 (Est. $3.39) ; +41% YoY. Non-GAAP Oper Income: $3.10B (Est. $3.03B). Non-GAAP FCF: $2.33B (Est. $1.52B) ; +14% YoY. Q4 Guide: Revenue: $10.25B +/- $500M (Est. $9.54B). Adj. EPS: $4.02 +/- $0.20 (Est. $3.69).  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.25 -.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
  • Crude Oil 81.10/bbl. -.2% 
  • Gold 4,375.30 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.29 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.41 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 128.6 +.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.65% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.02% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 -.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.34%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Declining Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Diminished War-Induced Inflation Fears, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.60 -1.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 75.0 +1.7% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.18 -2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 -1.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 138.5 -1.7%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.5 -1.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -2.6
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.9 +1.2
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.6 +4.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(454 of 500 reporting) +50.6% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 389.05 +.46:  Growth Rate +32.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.25% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 945.25 +.49: Growth Rate +82.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.8 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +12.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.4 -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 60.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.64% -5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 52.4% (+7.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 44.9%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,030 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +26 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.8% 2) Telecom -1.8% 3) Space -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • NBIS, PHVS, CAE, SEPN, COHR, BLTE, LQDA, PLGO, ANDG, JD, PESI, CSCO, PAAS, IDR, YETI, CBRS, TPR, REZI, LFTO and CLBT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BIRK 2) LEN 3) IRM 4) XLY 5) UAMY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NI 2) WRD 3) TE 4) DJT 5) GTM
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLE 3) FDN 4) XLF 5) XLK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +4.9% 2) AI Innovation +2.4% 3) Shipping +2.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ARX, OMER, AIRO, TBBB, SNDK, EROC, AVAH, BIRK, MH, QMCO, ISSC, ASMB, FIGR, WIX, MWH, AEBI, COLL, ASMB, WDC, BLSH, ZIM ADUR, HLIT, AAON, SMCI, CLS, GO, GDS, P, ABCL, NET, ATRO, SHAZ, RDVT, FOUR, MRX, NNE, DRTS, KURA, FA, ADIG, ENS, LMRI, SAIA, HUBG, CNNE, TEN, HPQ, MTZ, ECO, IMXI, GMRS, BRSL, SGI, LIFE, APP, POR and NOMD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GBTC 2) DGXX 3) VYM 4) UMC 5) NRGV 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NBIS 2) SMCI 3) CRWV 4) LITE 5) CAVA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) IBB 3) GDX 4) CLOU 5) XOP
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in June.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June. 

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for Aug. is estimated to fall to 54.9 versus 55.2 in July.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for August is estimated to rise +4.2% versus a +4.2% gain in July.
  • Business Inventories for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in May. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (BYND) 1-for-30
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -12.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.4 +.2
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 61.4% of Issues Advancing, 36.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.28 -25.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$165.4M
  • 120 New 52-Week Highs, 24 New Lows
  • 61.1% (+.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 72.0 +.6
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 9.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 2.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 7.0% unch.
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 1.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31st 31.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 128.2 +.5%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 71.0 +9.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 463.25 +1.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 269.4 -.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.5 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.0 -15.5%
  • Vix 14.7% +1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -5.0%