Monday, August 17, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC  
  • @WallStEngine
  • FABRINET $FN Q4’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.32B (Est. $1.27B) ; +45% YoY. Adj. EPS: $4.10 (Est. $3.82) ; +55% YoY. Oper Income: $134.25M (Est. $137M). Net Income: $139.3M (Est. $139M). Q1 Guide: Revenue: $1.38B-$1.43B (Est. $1.32B). Adj. EPS: $4.10-$4.25 (Est. $3.96). GAAP EPS: $3.39-$3.54.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 +.5 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 84.93/bbl. +.5% 
  • Gold 4,460.30 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.32 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.38 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 130.3 +.4%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.73% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.14% +6.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.1 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.27%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.23%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and food shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Escalation Worries, War-Induced Inflation Fears, Rising Long-Term Rates, Consumer Discretionary/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +1.2%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.0 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.21 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.6 +.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.5 +1.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 54.0 +2.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.5 -.7
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.2 +2.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 74.5 +4.0
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.6 -5.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(455 of 500 reporting) +50.5% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 389.88 +.83:  Growth Rate +32.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.26% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 947.50 +2.25: Growth Rate +82.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.7 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.36 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 179.82 +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 62.6 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.3% -1.5 percentage points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.7% +3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 50.8% (-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.3%(unch.) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -145 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -3 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +34 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/energy sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -2.5% 2) Computer Services -2.5% 3) Gambling -2.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • GLPI, NKE, SMMT, BCSF, EXK, RDDT, CLBT, MAIR, KLAR, FRVO, MNSO, PICS and FTK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UTHR 2) GTM 3) EYPT 4) APO 5) KLAR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) UWMC 2) GTM 3) CCOI 4) MVST 5) MVST
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) RING 4) XLU 5) XRT

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Shipping +2.7% 2) AI Innovation +2.5% 3) Semis +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AXTI, CBRS, ARGX, SWMR, VCX, FDMT, FIGR, FRNM, HTHT, MESO, COHR, SNDK, ALM, OCUL, ANRO, VIST, LUNR, CADL, AAOI, DIOD, ECO, EROC, XPEV, ONC, CLYM, NXE, VPG, BLSH, OGC, SBLK, ETON, ATAT and MTA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) UTHR 2) SLN 3) NXE 4) LODE 5) VIAV 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RCMT 2) SNDK 3) HTHT 4) OABI 5) OCUL
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) ALAI 4) IGV 5) VGT
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AS)/.11
  • (BIDU)/9.35
  • (HD)/4.73
  • (KLAR)/-.05 
  • (XP)/2.59 
After the Close: 
  • (JKHY)/1.47
  • (KEYS)/2.48
  • (LZB)/.49
  • (MRCY)/.38
  • (TOL)/2.93
  • (ZTO)/3.41 
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Aug. 
  • The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in June.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in June. 
  • The Export Price Index MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a -.6% decline in June.
  • Housing Starts for July is estimated to fall to 1342K versus 1427K in June.
  • Building Permits for July is estimated to rise to 1375K versus 1374K in June. 

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in June.
  • Manufacturing Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in June.
  • Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to rise to 76.3% versus 76.1% in June. 

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a -5.4% decline in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, Needham Semi/SemiCap Conference, (MCHP) annual meeting and Rosenblatt Age of AI Tech Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -23.1% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.7 -.7
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
  • 34.7% of Issues Advancing, 63.0% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.08 +28.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$89.4M
  • 65 New 52-Week Highs, 94 New Lows
  • 60.5% (-2.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 71.8 +1.1
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 9.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30th 12.0% unch.
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 3.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30th 2.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% unch.
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30th 39.0% -2.0 percentage points
Other
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 129. +.3%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 54.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 464.5 +4.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 270.8 +.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.1 +.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 62.0 (GREED) -2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 6.1 -33.4%
  • Vix 15.1% +5.7%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +3.7%