Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with President Donald Trump and both sides would work on a “mutually beneficial” US-Canadian trade deal in the weeks ahead. 
• Gulf states fear that another US-Israeli attack on a better-prepared Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region. 
• Russia detained a teenager on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack on a Moscow park and museum, a day after a warning from US officials.  
• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says he sees a few “clearing events” ahead for the stock market that have the potential to take it lower temporarily, creating a great opportunity for investors to pile back in. 
• Japanese authorities are prepared to respond if currency market movements become disorderly, acting in accordance with a standing pact with her US counterpart, says Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.     
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.  

• @Zerohedge  

• KIOXIA SHARES FALL 14% AFTER PROFIT FORECAST MISSES ESTIMATE.
• Radiant Wins First-Ever DOE OK For Full-Power Microreactor As Nuclear Stocks Crash To Multi-Year Lows.  
• A Year After Saying "Short Hyperscaler Bonds", Hartnett Now Says Buy Them. 
• The Ghosts Of Crises Past To Haunt The Midterms: Natixis Says A Democratic Sweep Could Exorcise The AI Bond Bear. 
• Morgan Stanley frames it in utility terms: demand of 180 GW in 2028 versus supply of 137 GW, a 43 GW gap that has nearly tripled from 15 GW this year. 
• Pokemon Card Mania Sparks Bubble Fear: "Just Doing A Crazy Bull Run". 
• Treasury Uncovers $8 Billion In Suspicious Foreign-Directed Wire Payments: Bessent. 
• The 70 Gigawatt Hole: Wall Street Maps How Far America's Electric Grid Is Falling Behind AI Demand. 
• "No Workable Plan": Obama Judge Throws Out DOJ Bid To Halt Alaska Certification If 'Real' Sullivan Loses. 
• David Stockman On America's Debt Trap: Washington Is Running Out Of Time.
• Beijing To Convene Stock Market Rescue Meeting As Plunge Protection Goes Into Overdrive.
• NPR Reveals Democrat Scheme To Rig AIs Into Deceiving Voters.
• Flash Forward: Bernstein, Goldman Say "High-Bandwidth Flash" Could Crumble AI's Memory Wall... If Nvidia Ever Shows Up.
• Democrat Haley Stevens Flips, Endorses El-Sayed's Republican Opponent Two Days Before Michigan Senate Vote.     
• FBI Says North Korea Behind $6 Billion Binance Heist.
• Nasdaq 9% Off Its High, Euro Gas Through €100: Goldman's Last "Source Of Calm" Is Central Banks... "Good Luck".
• Oh, By The Way, Private Credit Defaults Just Hit A Record....
• Third Russian Refinery Attacked By Ukraine In 3 Days.
• Korybko: Tusk's Judicial Coup Amounts To An Attempted German Takeover Of Poland By Proxy.
• Iran's Araghchi Hopes For 'Rationality' From US Amid Signs Renewed War Could Erupt.
• Burnham And Healey's Budget Has Trapped Britain In A Doom-Loop.
• Polish MEP Alleges "Globalist Coup" Attempt On Court A Month After Slotkin Touts Poland "Playbook".
• Europeans Can't Even Die In Their Own Coffins? 
• First Doomsday Warnings, Then Poland Crisis, Iran's "No Limits" Threat, & Now "Mass Casualty" Risk In Moscow.
• $1.1 Trillion In Cloud Backlog Vs "Peak" Earnings Growth: Two Goldman Veterans Draw Opposite Conclusions From AI's Worst Week.
• Looting And Chaos Erupt In Germany As Europe Slides Deeper Into Crisis. 
• Binance Plugs 90% Of $6.3 Billion Hack Hole With Its Own Cash, Says Withdrawals Reopen Sunday.
• The Democrats' 'All Trick, No Treat' Strategy.
• Iran Issues Nov 1st Blanket Ban On South Korean Tanker Giant Moving One-Third Of Persian Gulf Oil Exports.  

• @CNBC 

• Binance sees $3.64 billion in net outflows as withdrawals resume after massive hack. 
• Stock futures tick higher ahead of busy week of earnings, jobs data and the midterm elections: Live updates.
• Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month.
• Iranian negotiators in Qatar to continue talks to end the U.S.-Iran war: Reuters.

• @MarioNawful

• Ironically, Netanyahu made it possible!! Israelis and Palestinians are marching TOGETHER in Tel Aviv demanding a Jewish-Arab government The demonstration comes days after Tuesday’s election left Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 seats, short of a majority, while the opposition and Arab parties hold the rest. Crowds are pressing for a coalition that includes both sides after the results blocked a straight return for the current government. (video)  

• @WallStreetApes 

• A gay white man is interviewed in Michigan and he says we don’t need any White men in the Senate. He says we need diversity, that’s why he’s voting for the Muslim Abdul El-Sayed. Who’s gonna tell him…. He says that Democrats are the party that makes gas affordable, groceries affordable and makes you be able to afford life. - The top 10 most expensive states in America are all Democrat, aside from Alaska. - The cost of groceries skyrocketed under Biden. - The cost of rent went up around 30%+ under Biden. But yeah, vote Democrat for a lower cost of living…. The brainwashing is insane. In fact, the cost of living went up roughly 3x the rate under Biden compared to Trump according to commutative price data. (video)

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: Ukraine has just struck Russia's Kstovo oil refinery, setting it ablaze with massive fires. Kstovo is Russia's 4th-largest refinery, processing 17 million tonnes of crude oil a year. It is the third Russian refinery struck in three days. (pics)

• @DD_Geopolitics

• Business Jet With Nine Aboard Crashes Into Florida Mobile Home Park, Multiple Dead. A Learjet 60 crashed into a mobile home park in Greenacres, Palm Beach County, shortly after 1 pm local time today. The FAA says nine people were aboard. Authorities report multiple deaths, but the exact toll is unknown, including whether anyone on the ground was killed. The jet left Austin, Texas, for North Eleuthera in the Bahamas. According to Flightradar24, it suddenly went into a steep dive, descending at more than 32,000 feet per minute. Audio circulating on social media is claimed to capture the jet's female pilot in the moments before the crash, reporting a descent of 10,000 feet per minute during a mayday call. She then allegedly says: "Look outside, Jack... Holy f*ck, we're out of time." The crash site is about 9 miles from Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, where US forces recently deployed Avenger air defense systems. There is no indication of any link between the two, and the cause is not yet known. (video) 

• @WarClandestine

• The Dems continue to be openly concerned about Trump stopping their election fraud schemes. They continue to claim Trump is going to use the federal government to steal the election. In reality, they have been caught committing election fraud, and are trying to avoid accountability.
• All evidence suggests that we are headed for some sort of showdown on Election Day. Trump and his administration are making it clear they are going to prosecute election/voter fraud this time around, and the Dems are making it clear they believe Trump is going to “steal the election” from them. Based on the behavior of both sides, it appears that Trump is not going to let the Dems cheat this time around. The Dems have been warning of Trump sending federal agents to polling sites, potentially seizing ballots or tabulators, and/or prosecuting election officials. Something is brewing. 

• @ElectionWiz

• Michigan Democratic Party Curtis Hertel has kicked Haley Stevens out of the Democratic Party after she endorsed Republican Mike Rogers for Senate.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING UPDATE: James Talarico's OWN team just rushed to the New York Times to say their interna polling is either tied or margin of error with Ken Paxton. THERE'S THE HEDGE... "People close to his campaign" told NYT numbers may not fully capture the rural conservatives who back Trump. That's the exact voter bloc that buried Democrats' "blue Texas" hopes in 2018, 2020, and 2024! GO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. SWAMP THEM. (video)

• @NH_India

• Thousands rally in Tel Aviv urging #Israel’s opposition to join Arab parties and form a govt to oust #Netanyahu. Election left his bloc with 53 seats and the opposition with 48 in the 120-member parliament, making Arab parties pivotal to coalition talks. (pic)

• @visegrad24

• BREAKING: The looting of stores has started in Frankfurt, Germany. Young first and second-generation migrants are attacking stores in the city. (video)

• @RadioGenoa  

• This is not just one country. This is Europe 2026: France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Germany, Albania. Everywhere the same chaos. Where are we going? (video)

• @CapitolLeaks1

• Barack Obama is now targeting Hungary and Poland because they’re rejecting open borders. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.86%.
• Crude Oil 101.26/bbl. -2.8%
• Gold 3,919.0 USD/t oz. +.52% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.06 -.19%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.26 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.7 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.94% +1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.87% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.15 -3.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.
• S&P 500 futures +.42%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.80%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Zerohedge 

• Iran Conducts First Limpet Mine Attack On Tanker Since 2019.
• "Almost A Down Round": OpenAI Slashes Funding Target By $10 Billion As AI Rout Spoils "Last Chance" Pitch.
• Goldilocks Or Bond Rout? Goldman's 10 Charts For A Market With A 20% De-Rating Behind It.
• Europe's Riots Are The Bill Coming Due For Socialism And Globalism.
• Polish President Seen Physically Pushing Way Into Top Court Amid Pro-EU Tusk's 'Judicial Coup'.
• France's Debt Alarm Gets Louder: Fitch Cuts Outlook To Negative In Surprise Warning.
• Qatar Signals Talks 'Breakthrough' As Khamenei Warns Iran's Retaliation Will Have 'No Geographical Limits' If Attacked.
• Hand In Hand Toward The Abyss.
• China Rips Off America's Secret X-37B Spaceplane.
• 'We Fear These People': Scandal Erupts After Berlin 'Left Party' Mayoral Candidate Admits Concerns Over Islamists.
• US Puts NATO Allies On Notice To 'Tone Down' Anti-Russia Rhetoric.
• Very cheap indeed: two months later, the 39% odds of $41 trillion in debt are now 57%, and rising fast. $41 trillion in debt this year is pretty much a done deal.
• The Doomsday Government: Preparing For The End Of The World, Not The End Of Power.
• the AI CDS rack.
• US Army Quietly Begins Drills That Will Chill You To The Bone.
• *TRUMP: FANNIE, FREDDIE WILL INVEST $40B IN FLORIDA MORTGAGES.
• Turning The Knife Inward: Xi Purges A Record 33 At Fifth Plenum As China's Military High Command Shrinks To Two Men.
• 'Decoy Dan' Skipped Town Two Days Before NYT Bombshell As Feds Surge Into Alaska.
• North Korea's Kim Orders Drone Buildup In Push For "Absolute Superiority" In Unmanned Warfare.
• There it is: Arini getting Leofolded: *ARINI SOLD ~$800M IN DEBT HOLDINGS IN RECENT WEEKS: WSJ. Ken taking over the junk bond market next.
• *ZELENSKY WELCOMES US APPROVAL OF PATRIOT INTERCEPTORS PURCHASE. *ZELENSKY ASKS US TO SPEED UP PATRIOT DELIVERIES.
• A Soggy Paper Straw Is Worse For The Environment Than A Plastic One; Study Finds.
• *FRANCE'S OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE BY FITCH. *META OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE BY S&P.
• Kunstler: The 'Two Dan Sullivans' Case Exposes How 'Filthy' Democratic Party Tactics Are....
• Seattle's Socialist Mayor Faces Business Revolt As Utopia Dreams Implode, Nearly Half Weigh Exit.
• Lula Shock, AI Block, & New Smoking Barrels: October Spooks Bond Vigilantes Into Midterms....                         

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (EQX), (GM), (LEA), (VRT), (ETN) and (PENN).
• Had bearish commentary on (VLO), (PSX) and (MPC). 

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #DAX 25777 -0.01% #DOW 51778 -0.03% #NASDAQ 28483 +0.29% #FTSE 10722 0.00% #HANGSENG 23398 +0.02% #EURUSD 11155 -0.04% #GOLD 3883 +0.19% #USOIL 10217 -0.19% #SPCX 13678 +1.55%.
• Crypto update: #Bitcoin 77561.00 +0.98% #Ether 2254.90 +0.76% #Cardano 0.1934 -0.10% #BitcoinCash 288.37 -0.28% #Litecoin 55.59 +0.8% #Stellar 0.1695 +0.83% #Dogecoin 0.0758 +0.53% #Uniswap 7.0766 +2.35% #Chainlink 11.6868 +4.64% #Polkadot 0.9542 -1.94% #Solana 96.0300 +0.91% #Avalanche 8.5600 +1.78%.

• @MarioNawfal

• BREAKING: Washington and Tehran have reportedly agreed on preliminary measures covering Iran's nuclear programme, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, and financial incentives for Iran. China and Russia are set to act as guarantors of the agreement, potentially giving both countries a major role in securing any deal. Iranian negotiators have reportedly flown to Doha for further talks with Qatari mediators later today. Nothing is final yet, but if confirmed, this could be a major turning point in the standoff.
• Born blind? Lost your sight completely? Neuralink's second product, BLINDSIGHT, is designed to restore sight. The engineering is already done. Regulatory approval is the next hurdle. Instead of trying to repair damaged eyes or optic nerves, Blindsight connects directly to the brain's visual cortex. The first images may be basic, but being able to recognise shapes, objects, and your surroundings could give people an entirely new level of independence. Seeing the world for the first time. That's a moment worth working towards. (video)

• @elonmusk

• Talarico wants to open the borders and legalize everyone to gain a permanent majority to end democracy in America. (video)

• @OwenShroyer1776

• Miriam Adelson Caught Funding Democrat James Talarico For Senate In Texas. (video)

• @HormuzReport

• BREAKING: Iran is now threatening to target U.S. and Israeli assets worldwide, with Iran’s Supreme Leader ordering the entire military to maximum combat readiness and demanding an immediate response to any threat “without geographical limitations,” per Iranian state media. Khamenei declared that “all material and non-material assets” of the U.S. and Israel are now within Iran’s reach, warning that Tehran will determine the timing and terms of any future war. He also ordered weapons factories to maximize missile and drone production.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Leftists and Islamists are throwing MOLOTOVS at police in Paris as Macron is totally MISSING IN ACTION. Weeks and weeks straight of France burning. This is not going away until mass remigration is carried out and France elects a right-wing leader! (video)

• @TaraServatius

• Democrats began writing their talking points denying Trump's claims they stole the 2026 midterm election in Michigan ... in April. Their biggest concern? How to deny claims by Trump they stole the election through allowing large-scale illegal immigrant voting, which is oddly specific. It means they have been planning to steal that Senate seat since at least the beginning of the year. It's exactly what Democrats did in the months before the 2020 election, when the Washington Post published their talking points about not believing anything Trump said about 2020 being stolen. Odd how they knew before both elections they'd need those talking points ready to go.

• @CapitolLeaks1

• BOOM! JAMES O’KEEFE JUST DROPPED A NUKE — WIDESPREAD VOTE BUYING RING EXPOSED NATIONWIDE AS DEMS (AND SECRET RINOS) PAY $5-$8 PER BALLOT TO RIG EVERY ELECTION! Undercover footage catches these hired guns openly bragging: “I’m bringing in 3500 votes”… “He was paying me $5k a month, now it’s $8k!” Even judges and Texas Republicans caught secretly working for Democrats while funneling thousands of fake ballots! This is the Deep State’s desperate election theft machine in action — our Republic is being sold out in broad daylight for chump change! We NEED the SAVE AMERICA ACT PASSED IMMEDIATELY + MASS ARRESTS and PROSECUTIONS for these treasonous fraudsters before they steal 2026 too! (video)

• @nogps1

• Please remember to detox! Our bodies are under attack from every which way now.. not only are we breathing in toxicity but our soil and water is being contaminated. ... and they are blocking out our ability to access the sun, reducing our immune systems ability to fight back! (video)
• It's not hard!! Listen to Matt Landman... People need to just watch the sky, watch the patterns.. geoengineered and frequency programs are being used to manufacture weaponized weather! The only climate crisis is the one that they are creating. (video) 

• @btysonmd

• Russian Oil Fields Today. This is Bad really Bad. Where is Greta when you need her? Imagine all the activists that should be protesting against this pollution!! (video)

• @PatriotMarkCook

• I upgraded the voting irregularities monitor AGAIN! Now with a map view that you can pull up and a play button you can press to see the issues pop up over time. You can also zoom in to your state/county, and if you click on any of the icons, you can then go direct to the full post. Let me know what you all think! (link)

• @unusual_whales

• BREAKING: National Guard units in all 50 states are reportedly "mobilizing for next week's elections," per Ken Klippenstein.

• @DataRepublican

• Indivisible, a major left-wing organizing group, says its ambitions go FAR beyond removing Trump: “Our goal is the transformation of American democracy.” Impeachment is merely “a tactic within a strategy to get to a broader goal.” it’s everywhere you look. (video)

OpenVAERS:   

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,035,094 Reports (+1,111 from prior report) Through September 25th, 2026.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.