Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• When Donald Trump’s plane touches down in Beijing, he’ll become the first sitting US president to visit China in nearly a decade. 
• Donald Trump said there’s no need for curbs on US oil or jet fuel exports to address global shortages sparked by the war with Iran.
• MP expects demand for some of the most expensive rare earth materials to drop sharply as magnet makers adopt alternative metals.
• Universities across the US reported widespread outages on Thursday after a cybersecurity incident affected the Canvas online learning platform used by colleges nationwide.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• President Trump tells me in a phone call the retaliatory strikes against Iranian targets are just a "love tap." "It's just a love tap." When I asked if it means the ceasefire is over. "No, no, the ceasefire is going. It's in effect." 
• What To Know About Trump's Presidential Fitness Test Award Revival.
• "120 Quadrillion Tokens Monthly By 2030": Goldman's Deep Dive Into The Coming Agentic Economy.
• US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor - Trump Says Warships Came Under Fire By 'Lunatics'.
• $16M Hospice Fraud Exposed In Newsom's California As Trump Admin Ramps Up Crackdown.
• @realDonaldTrump.
• "Existential": Israel Quadruples Foreign-Influence Budget To Massive $730M.
• Vote Harder? Why Secession Is The Only Answer To The American Megastate.
• *US SAYS IT TARGETED IRANIAN FACILITIES RESPONSIBLE FOR ATTACKS. *US MILITARY SAYS IT DOES NOT SEEK ESCALATION AFTER IRAN STRIKES.
• US Conducts New Iran Strikes Along Hormuz Corridor, State Media Cites Return Fire On 3 US Destroyers.  
• Dana White Says Society Is Failing Young Men, And The Backlash Proves His Point.    
• UN Climate Panel Quietly Admits Its Doomsday Climate Scenarios Were 'Implausible'.
• Iran's Yellow-Cake Red-Line Ruins Black Gold-Driven Green Day Hopes For Stocks.     

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open lower on fresh Iran-U.S. tensions following clashes.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Nvidia CEO says AI partnership with Corning will 'revitalize American manufacturing'.
• Stock futures slip as traders eye rising U.S.-Iran tensions; April jobs report looms: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Akamai Technologies, Expedia, Lyft, Texas Roadhouse and more.
• IREN shares pop 13% on AI infrastructure deal with Nvidia.          

• @TheTranscript 

• $RKLB: +5% AH.
• Block CFO: "We delivered another strong quarter, as year-over-year gross profit growth accelerated to 27% and Adjusted Operating Income margin reached an all time high of 25%". $XYZ: +10% AH.
• Cloudflare CEO @eastdakota: "We had a very strong start to 2026" $NET: -14% AH. 
• Expedia CEO: "Our first quarter results marked a strong start to the year, as we delivered double-digit bookings and revenue growth and drove meaningful margin expansion despite a dynamic macroeconomic environment". $EXPE: -7%AH. 
• Akamai Technologies CEO: "...today, we are very pleased to announce that a leading frontier model provider has committed to $1.8 billion over seven years for CIS, further validating our position as a key infrastructure provider in the AI economy. $AKAM: 23% AH. 

• @MarioNawful  

• The story behind why 30 House Democrats just demanded the U.S. acknowledge Israel's nukes is darker than people realize... Jonathan Pollard, the most infamous Israeli spy in U.S. history, helped build Israel's nuclear program by stealing American secrets. When Netanyahu visited Clinton in the 90s and demanded Pollard's release, he reportedly mentioned Israel had Lewinsky tapes. As a friendly FYI. CIA Director George Tenet threatened to resign if Pollard was freed. Trump finally let him go. Pollard recently bragged on camera that Israel once threatened to nuke the U.S. to force a weapons airlift. That's the relationship Castro's letter is trying to drag into daylight.

• @Cernovich

• Tom Homan: President Trump Is Being Lobbied by Cabinet Members to Approve Migrant Amnesty.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Very sus… of course they did. Just two weeks before the hantavirus news broke, the World Health Organization ran Exercise Polaris II on April 22–23, 2026. The similarities.. shocking: Past Polaris drills (including Polaris I) included CRUISE-SHIP or travel-related scenarios — very similar to this expedition ship cluster. The simulation used a “fictional” deadly bacterium with a high mortality rate; the real Andes hantavirus has a naturally high death rate (20–40%+). The simulation focused on early detection, contact tracing across borders, and managing passengers/crew — exactly what we’re seeing with people who left the ship at St. Helena.

• @RenzTom 

• SSRIs are among the most dangerous and useless drugs ever created. I was talked into using them in my early 20s with absolutely no real discussion of the dangers. I was on them for over 20 years before realizing how bad they are and quitting. I have not taken them for several years and still have side effects that are likely permanent (thankfully different from this lady's but still unpleasant). The FDA is complicit in ensuring pharma and doctors do not provide true informed consent. (video)

• @ValerieAnne1970

• BIG FOOD IS QUIETLY BUYING UP YOUR “HEALTHY” FAVORITES — AND CHANGING THEM BEHIND YOUR BACK. You thought you were choosing better with those “clean,” grain-free, organic, gut-healthy brands? Think again. The same giants pushing ultra-processed junk are snapping them up... then slowly swapping real ingredients for cheaper crap while keeping the “healthy” packaging. Here’s the latest hit list (2026):

• @TPV_John

• “Hantavirus” is listed as a reported possible ADVERSE EVENT after getting the Pfizer COVID jab. No, I’m not joking. (pic)

• @matttttt187

• Did the WHO just say the quiet part out loud??? The World Health Organization is now openly saying the Hantavirus outbreak proves why the world needs centralized global health control. “𝐖𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭… 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐛𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐤… 𝐭𝐨 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐡𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐰𝐨𝐫𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐚 𝐠𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬.” Read that again. Slowly. Not “we need to stop this outbreak.” 
Not “we need transparency.” They said they NEED the incident itself to justify expanding global authority. (video)

• @ChildrensHD

• Tucker Carlson: “So if you wind up killing a lot of people, which the COVID vax did, and then you refuse to find out where the virus came from in the first place, and then you pretend that nothing bad happened, it's kind of hard not to suspect that maybe you want to hurt me.” The DOJ has until May 11th to indict Fauci for committing perjury to Congress by saying he had nothing to do with funding research in the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the DOJ lets this run out without indicting Fauci despite substantial evidence of his guilt, it will be hard to look at the agency with any sort of legitimacy again. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• Candidate Running to UNSEAT Lindsey Graham EXPOSES His Record: ‘He is BETRAYING South Carolina and America’. Lindsey Graham does not vote with MAGA. His lifetime Conservative voting record is 43%. His lifetime Constitutional voting record is 57%. Candidate for U.S. Senate in South Carolina Mark Lynch: “Everybody’s tired of Lindsey’s warmongering and endless wars…” “He’s betraying South Carolina, he’s betraying America and he stabs Trump in the back every chance he gets.” “It’s time for him to be removed…” (video)

• @NicHulscher

• Bill Gates is now the #1 funder of the World Health Organization. Take everything they say about hantavirus with a grain of salt. Vaccine sales are collapsing and the WHO pandemic treaty negotiations are stalling. Hantavirus scare provides a boost in both departments. (table)
• VACCINE CARTEL AND US ARMY ARE DEVELOPING 13 HANTAVIRUS VACCINES & GENE THERAPIES. 6 DNA "vaccines" (US Army). 3 mRNA "vaccines" (Moderna, China, Canada). 2 viral vector "vaccines" (UK, Canada). 1 inactivated (licensed in Korea). 1 protein subunit. I will NOT be taking any of them. 

• @DowdEdward

• A person who’s obsessed with cruise ship TikTok’s weighs in on how strange this Hantavirus situation appears to her. (video)

• @BitcoinSapiens

• Glenn Beck: "Where do you stand on the WEF?" RFK Jr: "We shouldn't be paying any attention to it. It's a billionaires boys club that’s arranging for the world to shift wealth upward, and to clamp down totalitarian controls on everybody else". "It's astonishing to me that these people go to Davos in their private jets, and they're able to tell these world leaders how to govern us in ways that eradicate our constitutional and civil rights." "COVID we shifted $4 trillion of wealth upward. We closed all of the little guys. They were all colluding with each other to censor guys like me complaining about it." (video)

• @OcrazioCornPop

• BREAKING: FULTON COUNTY FRAUD PROBE JUST GOT A MASSIVE GREEN LIGHT! Federal Judge just SLAMMED the door on Fulton County Democrats desperate motion to snatch back 600+ boxes of 2020 election records seized by the FBI in January. Ballots, tabulator tapes, ballot images, voter rolls (the original evidence from ground zero of the steal) stays with the Feds for full forensic review. After years of stonewalling, lawfare, and "nothing to see here," the deep state’s hiding spot just got raided. No more "lost" chain-of-custody. No more Ruby Freeman/Shaye Moss suitcase videos dismissed as conspiracy. What happens next?

• @StephenMoore

• The biggest wealth transfer in American history isn’t happening on Wall Street. It’s happening on U-Hauls. Over $2 trillion in income fled high-tax blue states for low-tax red states in just 11 years. And blue states’ solution? Raise taxes again. (pic)

• @FFT1776

• URGENT: Sen Bill Cassidy stabbed Pres Trump in the back, he voted to CONVICT him of INSURRECTION! RINO Cassidy sold-out Louisiana with a 55% Liberty Score. THIS SATURDAY, May 16th, Louisiana patriots have ONE SHOT to DUMP THIS TRAITOR! Early voting is happening NOW. Get to the polls and primary him. Say GOOD-BYE & Good Riddance!

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 41.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 110.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
• Crude Oil 96.40/bbl. +1.7% 
• Gold 4,719.6 USD/t oz. +.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.72 -.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.54 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 117.4 -.9%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.39% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.87%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Higher Long-Term Rates, Profit-Taking, Tech/Construction Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +1.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.6 -.9% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 -6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.2 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.0 +1.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 62.3 -.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.3 +.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.7 +1.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.0 +5.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.2 +2.8
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(423 of 500 reporting) +25.5% -.2 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 352.15 +.74:  Growth Rate +27.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.9 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.36% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 850.43 +1.77: Growth Rate +114.8% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.9 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.03 +3.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 47.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.1 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.4% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.8% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 -5.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 90.7% (+4.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 90.0%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -499 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -157 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -88 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMR)/-.36
• (ROAD)/-.03
• (EMBJ)/.25
• (FLR)/.62
• (OSK)/1.04
• (PPL)/.62
• (WEN)/.10 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for April is estimated to fall to 65K versus 178K in March.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in March.
• The Unemployment Rate for April is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in March.  

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for May is estimated to fall to 49.5 versus 4.3% in April. 
• The Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for May is estimated to rise to 4.8% versus 4.7% in April. 
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.6% versus a +2.7% gain in April. 

Upcoming Splits

• (CVNA) 5-for-1 

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, (MAS) annual meeting, (TER) annual meeting, (TKR) annual meeting, (VMC) annual meeting, (ABBV) annual meeting, (CL) annual meeting, (COF) annual meeting, (CNH) annual meeting, (URI) annual meeting, (ITW) annual meeting and the (MAR) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• EXCLUSIVE: China advises its largest banks to temporarily halt new loans to five US-sanctioned refiners over ties to Iranian oil.
• The Israeli army carried out an attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Wednesday, the first in the vicinity of the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire came into effect last month. 
• South Korea’s equity market has overtaken Canada’s as the world’s seventh largest, propelled by insatiable demand for chips powering artificial intelligence.
• Fertilizer makers CF and Nutrien each reported nearly 20% jumps in sales for the latest quarter, showing the extent of the Iran war’s upheaval on supply chains for the key crop nutrients. 
• Fortinet shares rose as much as 24% in post-market trading after the cybersecurity company raised its full-year revenue outlook above expectations, following its largest billings expansion in over three years. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• The mainstream media is now confirming we are being robbed at grocery stores and Walmart. Product after product they take off the shelves and weigh is always short. They test Walmart shrimp, bring it to the studio and every bag is half a pound short. This has to be an intentionally large scale scam to defraud Americans at the grocery store. One or two items is a mistake. Every item they pull off the shelves being underweight at specific locations is fraud. And the amount products are underweight isn’t a small amount, it’s a huge amount. We are being robbed blind. (video)
• High Yield Recovery Rates Plunge To 35%, Down 16% From A Year Ago And Lowest Since COVID.
• Canadian Prime Minister Is Playing A Very Dangerous Game. 
• The physical North Sea oil market has weakened further, with Dated Brent down to $104 (down ~10% in one day). More importantly, physical differentials have narrowed further, with premia at $0-$2 a barrel range, lowest since the early days of the war. The message? Plenty of oil.
• DOJ said it uncovered evidence that the UCLA medical school intentionally and illegally selected applicants based on their race.
• Scientists Reveal Time Travel Could Work.
• Dot-Com Energy is back. SOX weekly RSI just hit levels not seen since March 2000.
• NOAA OKs First Deep-Sea Mining Plan For Critical Minerals In Pacific Ocean.
• Indiana Primary: Senate Incumbents Crushed By Trump-Backed Challengers.
• Iran Oil Official In Surprise Admission: 'Fate Of Our Refineries Now At Risk' As US Blockade Begins To Bite.
• Anthropocalyptic.....Anthropic's pre-IPO valuation surges to a record $1.2 trillion. This officially puts Anthropic's implied valuation up +900% since October 2025. 9th most valuable public company in the world.
• DC Police Officials Disciplined Over Allegations Of Manipulating Crime Data.
• Elon has been the longest and by far the biggest voice actively warning about the dangers of AI for a very long time. The entire reason he started OpenAI was this one thing.....to make sure AI is built for the good of humanity and not against it. Last week he took it a step further. He personally went and met with senior members of the Anthropic team to understand how they are working towards AI safety. He offered them compute on Colossus 1 only after he was sure they’re doing it right - before ending their suffering for the lack of compute and the bad PR for the last three months. The relief was instant. Anthropic immediately relaxed rate limits for all Claude users and completely removed peak time restrictions. This is exactly why Elon is the one who should be guiding us through the AI era.        
• Gold Jumps, Dollar Dumps As AMD & Imminent Iran Deal Lift Stocks & Bonds, Sink Oil.

• @CNBC

• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to climb as traders weigh Trump’s Iran threats against peace hopes.
• Berkshire Hathaway subsidiary McLane is planning to deploy self-driving trucking technology from Aurora Innovation on routes in Texas and across the U.S. Sun Belt by the end of the year, expanding on an autonomous freight pilot program the companies began in 2023.
• Stock futures are flat after the S&P 500 posts another record; traders eye developments in Iran: Live updates.
• Anthropic CEO says 80-fold growth in first quarter explains 'difficulties with compute'.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DoorDash, Zillow Group, ARM Holdings, Fortinet and more.           

• @TheTranscript 

• Albermarle CEO: "Albemarle achieved year-over-year sales growth of more than 15% in the fourth quarter, as well as strong full-year cash flow generation and significant cost and productivity improvements." $ALB: +7% AH.
• DoorDash CEO: "We had a strong start to 2026, with rigorous execution across our business...a new high for monthly active users, and strong consumer engagement across our marketplaces." $DASH: +12% AH.
• AppLovin duble beat. $APP: -3% AH. 
• Arm CEO: "As AI becomes more agentic, demand for Arm AGI CPU, Arm’s first data center chip, has exceeded expectations, reinforcing Arm as the compute platform for the AI era" $ARM: +10% AH.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 -2.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 41.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 110.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
• Crude Oil 95.61/bbl. +.6% 
• Gold 4,712.5 USD/t oz. +.39%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.60 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.3 +1.4%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.35% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.73% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.