Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +5.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.1 +1.1
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 44.9% of Issues Advancing, 53.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .83 -50.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$58.1M
  
• 114 New 52-Week Highs, 86 New Lows
• 55.2% (-.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.3 +3.3

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch. 
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 32.0% -11.0 percentage points 
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 9.0% -28.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 11.0% -3.0 percentage points
• US Invades Iran before 2027 14.0% +1.0 percentage point

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 124.4 +.2%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 63.0 -1.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 80.0% -16.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 443.0 +1.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.4 -.9%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 166.0 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 36.0 (FEAR) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.7 -25.4%
• Vix 17.5 +4.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .83 -17.0%

Monday Watch

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.10 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
• Crude Oil 77.52/bbl. +1.2%
• Gold 4,225.40 USD/t oz. -.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.40 -.08%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.97 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.7 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% +2.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.88% +4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.
• S&P 500 futures -.24%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% Net Long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Zerohedge 

• Agri Markets Hit By "Aggressive Positioning Washout" But Supply Risks Linger. 
• From the Gabbard files: "Just saw this video online. It’s from a 2016 NY Academy of Medicine meeting where Daszak (@PeterDaszak) talks about his colleagues in China manipulating the spike protein on coronavirus to make them more virulent." (pic)
• China's DRAM Giant CXMT Gets Final Nod For Largest Mainland IPO Since 2022.
• Vance 'Skeptical' That Iran Closed Hormuz Strait Again, Pentagon Declares Safe Passage Remains 'Intact Today.
• Trump still hasn't figured out that soaring memory prices are one of the biggest drivers of core inflation. But with iPhone prices about to jump $300, he will very soon. (graph)
• According to reports from Israel’s N12 News, the Israel Defense Force has ceased fire in Lebanon but will not withdraw from current areas of control, following orders from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Amongst other issues, a key point of contention between the U.S. and Iran since the signing of the MOU has been Israel’s operations in Lebanon against Lebanese Hezbollah.
• *VANCE EXPECTED TO GO TO SWITZERLAND TODAY FOR IRAN TALKS: CNN.
• Trump Says He No Longer Views Anthropic As A National Security Threat.
• What Broadening? Top Goldman Trader Says 'The Trade Is Still Long AI'.
• Iran isn’t losing any time re-starting its oil production and fresh exports via @CopernicusEU Sentinel-2 from earlier today, showing multiple super tankers loading at Iran’s Kharg Island terminal). (pic)
• Vice President JD Vance tells @foxandfriends Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have been on the ground in Switzerland “for a few hours” negotiating with an Iranian delegation.
• The Consumer Sentiment Disconnect From Economic Reality.
• Iran Media Says Hormuz 'Closed' Again, Citing Lebanon Violations, Amid Reports Delegations To Still Meet In Switzerland.
• Europe Is Decoupling From the AI Economy.
• 8 Frightening Forecasts For The Future Of Fraud.     
• "Only The Beginning": How To Profit From The Asymmetric Warfare Boom.
• US Private Credit Default Rate Remains At Record High: Fitch.

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (MDT) and (GM).

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #NASDAQ 30365 +0.26% #DOW 51472 +0.08% #DAX 24997 +0.04% #FTSE 10330 -0.26% #GOLD 4158 +0.06% #SILVER 6495 +0.15% #USOIL 7719 +0.75% #EURUSD 11471 +0.01%.
• Crypto update:#Bitcoin 63935.00 +1.04% #Ether 1729.30 +1.27% #Cardano 0.1616 +AWAITING_DATA% #BitcoinCash 199.02 +0.55% #EOS 0.0707 +0% #Litecoin 44.22 +0.36% #Stellar 0.2129 -2.61% #Dogecoin 0.0833 +0.12% #Uniswap 3.0232 -0.94% #Chainlink 7.9373 +0.21% #Polkadot 0.9633 +0.42% #Solana 71.4500 +3.24% #Avalanche 6.1200 +3.03% #NEO 2.223 +0.32%..
  

• @MarioNawfal

• More images coming in from Nabatieh, southern Lebanon, after Israel conducted bombings a mere 9 minutes after a ‘ceasefire’ was announced. (video)
• Netanyahu is rallying senators, media, and billionaires to bully Trump back into war with Iran. U.S. Army Retired Colonel Douglas Macgregor says Israel's leadership has turned this into a test of how far its influence in Washington can stretch. The mission, in his telling: drag the US back into war with Iran by any means available, from senators to media allies to billionaire go-betweens. "I think they're going to try very hard to bully President Trump back into attacking Iran. I think that's where we're headed." Which leaves one question hanging over all of it. Does Trump hold the line, or does he cave? (video) 
• Intense U.S. Air Force activity over the Persian Gulf & Gulf of Oman right now. Flight tracking shows: 1 KC-46A Pegasus, 1 E-3B Sentry AWACS, and 4 KC-135R Stratotankers operating near the Strait of Hormuz. America is putting serious air power in position as Iran claims the Strait is closed. Message received? (pic) 
• Another video showing the massive fire at a resort in the Dominican Republic. Nearly 1,700 guests had to rush to get out of the place as thick smoke filled the air. It's a sad situation, with at least one person dead and dozens more injured. (video)
• In about 3 months or so, Tesla FSD is about to get a very useful next step. Talking to Grok like you would talk to the world’s calmest Uber driver. “Turn right here.” “Drop us off at the entrance.” “Park farther away, we’ll walk.” That is the difference between a car following directions and a car actually being useful. FSD plus Grok is going to feel very different. 

• @ScottPresler

• .@SenJohnKennedy, Is it true that you’re publicly supporting the SAVE America Act, but then privately attacking those Senators that are actually pushing for the SAVE America Act? It looks like you’re up for re-election in 2028.

• @C_3C_3

• Never Forget… Deborah Birx lied to President Trump and manipulated data about guidelines, lockdowns and vaccines. Anthony Fauci made Remdesivir and ventilators hospital protocol even though he knew it was killing patients. They must pay for their crimes. Pure Evil. No Mercy!

• @TeamOverhaulGA

• LEFT: Jon Ossoff leading chants of "ICE out" at his rallies. RIGHT: Kenneth Moreno Guzman, an illegal alien from Mexico who was arrested in Georgia last January for r@ping an 11-year-old girl at knifepoint. (video)

• @MarshaBlackburn

• Democrats are fine with requiring photo ID to enter the Obama Presidential Center, but not to vote in U.S. elections. You can’t make this up. (pic)

• @DropSiteNews

• New: Israeli attacks have continued across southern Lebanon overnight and into Saturday morning, with at least 5 people killed in heavy airstrikes and drone strikes across the Nabatieh and Jezzine districts...

• @FirstSquawk

• COLLEGE STUDENTS ARE ABANDONING CODING FOR HEALTHCARE CAREERS AS AI RESHAPES JOB OUTLOOK — YF. STUDENTS SHIFT FROM COMPUTER SCIENCE TO HEALTHCARE AMID AI DISRUPTION FEARS.

• @mazemoore

• Fauci funded the research that almost certainly led to the pandemic. He then lied about it under oath and spent over two years trying to make people believe that Covid occured naturally. That is why he needed a pardon. (video)

• @AFpost

• Israel Hayom, long owned by the Adelsons, published an article calling Trump a traitor, an embarrassment, and a failure to the Israelis. "You could have been the greatest president of all, but you failed" "Mr. President, you have gravely harmed the human interests of the enlightened world, and you may be remembered forever as the president who brought about America's humiliation. You betrayed us, the Israelis. And in a single moment, the contempt you once faced suddenly seems so justified and logical." (pic)

• @RWMaloneMD

• On her last day as Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard declassified the COVID cover-up. Never-before-seen documents. Fauci's fingerprints on the intelligence itself. A lie told to Congress under oath. Here is what just dropped. (thread)

• @EricLDaugh

• NOW: VP JD Vance reveals Secretary MARCO RUBIO has stepped in to tone down the fighting in Lebanon, which will help President Trump get the Iran deal "Marco and the entire team have been actively managing what's going on in Lebanon. Things are getting better there!" (video)

• @TheInsidePaper

• Israel army official says told by 'political echelon to cease fire' in south Lebanon.

• @JayGenXer

• This Canadian girl just said what millions are thinking but are too afraid to say out loud. “Can somebody please tell me how we’re still calling Canada a free country?” Then she laid out the receipts:

• @CualMejia

• Magnitud de daños en de Hotel Viva Dominicus, Bayahibe, Rep. Dominicana. (video)

• @FluentInFinance

• JUST IN: The first human trial of "reverse-aging" drugs has started. Life Biosciences dosed the first patients with ER-100, a drug built to make damaged eye cells act younger. The method is called cellular reprogramming. If it works, the idea moves beyond the eye. Liver disease. Nerve damage. Brain decline. Longevity pulled in $8.5 billion in 2024 alone. The market's headed for $314 billion by 2030. 

• @Kalshi_Finance

• BREAKING: Tesla has filed a trademark for MEGAPOD which is a modular AI data center system.

OpenVAERS:  

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,033,789 Reports (+329 from prior report) Through April 24th, 2026.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,500.6 +1.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,564.7 +1.4%

• NASDAQ 26,517.9 +2.7%

• Russell 2000 2,979.8 +2.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 17,624.0 +3.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 325.6 +4.5%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 38.0 +3.0%

• Wilshire 5000 74,373.3 +1.4%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,964.9 +1.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,383.1 +1.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 927.0 -2.2%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 262.7 +2.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 10,171.4 +5.3%

• Transports 21,637.9 -3.9%

• Utilities 1,120.0 +1.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 126.4 +9.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 70.7 +4.2%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 266.9 +2.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 135.0 +.54%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 617,986 +.5%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.1 -7.6%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 231 +118

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.7 +12.2%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 130,301 -16.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,006,635 -.9%

• Total Put/Call .89 +7.1%

• OEX Put/Call .26 +2.4%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.84 +59.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 122.3 +.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 +17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.30 +12.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -13.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 55.0 -74.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 9.0 -22.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.49 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.58 -5.3%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,581.7 -1.0%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  92.8 +13.5

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.873 Trillion n/a

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$18.277 Million

• AAII % Bulls 36.6 +20.4%

• AAII % Bears 39.4 -17.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 37.0 (FEAR) +3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 362.1 -2.4%

• Crude Oil 76.9/bbl. -11.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 297.92 -2.3%

• Natural Gas 3.22 +4.8%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 78.4 USD/Megawatt +3.5% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour -12.7%
  

• Heating Oil 312.7 -9.9% 
• Newcastle Coal 133.8 (1,000/metric ton) -7.8%

• Gold 4,203.0 +.2%
• Silver 65.2 -2.1%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 180.7 +.8%

• Copper 637.1 -.01%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 395.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%

• China Iron Ore Spot 99.40 USD/Metric Tonne -2.2%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 24,600.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.64(price per million tokens) -6.2% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 64.59 +2.5%  

• CME Lumber 634.5 +2.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,352.2 +1.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 360.0 USD/Short Ton -6.7% 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.3 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.4 -1.0 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.10 +6.9%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 164.2 -16.4% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 75.0 +11.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% +9.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 361.2 +63.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.1
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.1% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.64 +1.26:  Growth Rate +24.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.53% +6.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 922.57 +11.50: Growth Rate +77.9% +2.2 percentage points, P/E 18.6 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 49.1 -7.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -26.7 +15.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.3 -13.3 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 61.5%(-27.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 38.5%(+30.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 7/29

• US Dollar Index 100.9 +1.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,873.5 +.8%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 62,604.2 -2.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 211.7 +.1%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.42 -1.0%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 27.25 -12.75 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.45% -3.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.78% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.678 Trillion n/a
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.035 Billion n/a

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.24 -.3%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 178.1 -3.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 70.0 -3.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.9 -6.6%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.2 -4.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.3 -1.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.2 +7.4%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.2 -16.9%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.8 -5.7%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.25 +.35%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.39 +.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.3% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.9% +20.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.30% unch.: CPI YoY +4.01% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -42.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 13.5 +1.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 +1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.4 -1.2% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.6 -3.9%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 110.0 -27.9%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 441.75 -.3% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 213.0 -15.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.1 -4.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.7 -5.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 109.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 551.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.7% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,413.1B n/a

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 219,000 +1.8%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.5 +.5%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.57% unch.

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 269,500 -3.8%

• Weekly Retail Sales +9.2% +10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% +6.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $258.7M -3.8%

• Nationwide Gas $4.00/gallon -.11/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,653.0 -2.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,868.9/40 ft Box +11.8%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,599.1 +13.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 215.0 +2.4%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 141.48 -12.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 289,447 -1.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,638,190 -8.2% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.9 +.3 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% +1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +2.3%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +.7%

Leading Sectors

• Semis +9.0%

• AI Innovation +8.5%
• Airlines +8.3%

• Construction +5.8%
  

• I-Banks +5.3%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Gambling -4.9%

• Energy -6.6%
  

• Computer Services -9.3%

• Oil Service -11.0%
  

• Space -13.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (95)

• CAST, HQ, ODD, SWBI, MEI, WYFI, PENG, WOLF, MRVL, CHRN, ENTG, INTC, REAL, KMX, CIFR, MGTX, HNRG, WNC, MTN, DIOD, OUST, FVRR, SMR, LIND, ALAB, GLW, MAMA, CRNC, ICHR, LEU, SHAZ, CEVA, FCEL, SEZL, MKSI, NNE, BROS, DUOT, RBLX, HRI, RKT, PLAB, MIR, ALGM, CLPT, Q, COMP, EC, UUUU, VSH, TSM, OMER, BJRI, SIMO, TTWO, TLN, CPA, BBAR, PTRN, BDC, SKY, CART, EWTX, BDC, CHYM, GEV, EXP, WLY, SSD, OKTA, FRO, KLIC, OKTA, NPO, SNEX, OSW, WDC, MRNA, RMIX, IART, TRVI, UFPI, AMAT, PRM, LGND, TRVI, ORN, CEG, NPKI, MITK, CAT, MGRC, VST, AAL, POOL, MITK, MLM, MGRC, ZLAB and GCMG

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)

• FCN, TEO, TCOM, SATA, IBM, MSTR, TDW, GIB, STLD, KR, INFY, GLOB, AAMI, EPAM, TNGX, LEGN, NVCR and ACN

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change