Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,637.3 -.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,710.5 -1.7%

• NASDAQ 26,489.2 +.6%

• Russell 2000 2,855.3 -1.7%

• NYSE FANG+ 18,782.7 +1.1%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 315.5 +.2%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 37.9 +1.6%

• Wilshire 5000 75,416.3 -.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,952.0 +.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,479.2 -1.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 917.0 -.5%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 270.6 -.1% 
  

• NYSE Technology 9,575.9 +.5%

• Transports 20,080.4 -2.7%

• Utilities 1,046.3 -2.1%

• MSCI Europe Banks 137.7 -.3%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 67.10 -1.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 265.8 unch.

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 137.7 +.2%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 617,192 -.3%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 -.5%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -46 +872

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.8 -5.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 136,579 +5.1%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,939,911 +1.0%

• Total Put/Call .84 -3.5%

• OEX Put/Call 1.19 +68.2%

• Equity Put/Call .70 -5.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.3 +30.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 132.5 +.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +2.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -5.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .51 -3.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.2 +.4%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.64 -4.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.28 +1.8%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,149.3 +.5%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 46.0 -9.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.922 Trillion -.7%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$13.376 Million

• AAII % Bulls 28.8 -24.2%

• AAII % Bears 53.3 +35.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 29.0 (FEAR) -6.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 422.6 -.1%

• Crude Oil 99.77/bbl. -.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 350.90 +5.8%

• Natural Gas 2.90 +2.70%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 88.7 USD/Megawatt +3.6% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 79.23 euros/megawatt-hour -1.2%
  

• Heating Oil 503.7 +.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 143.3 (1,000/metric ton) -2.7%

• Gold 4,382.6 +.8%
• Silver 66.51 +3.2%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 180.5 +1.3%

• Copper 670.1 +2.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 403.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.8%

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 20,700.0 USD/metric tonne -10.6%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .95(price per million tokens) -2.8% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 49.44 +.2%  

• CME Lumber 538.0 -5.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,563.5 -2.1%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 352.5 USD/Short Ton +2.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 468.0 USD/Short Ton +3.4%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% +70.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.8 -.7 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.1 -17.7%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 189.5 +126.4% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 60.0 -11.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 342.2 -52.9%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 -.3
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +19.8% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.65 +1.25:  Growth Rate +22.5% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.0 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 984.01 +6.36: Growth Rate +46.5% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.7 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 65.9 -8.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.90 -2.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 44.6%(-6.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 55.4%(+12.9 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 10/28

• US Dollar Index 100.2 +1.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,919.1 -.9%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 81,260 +4.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 206.3 +1.0%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.14 -.9%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 25.5 -7.25 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 5.0% +7.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.08% +3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.699 Trillion +.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.608 Billion +23.5%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.9 +.8%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.5 +2.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 92.0 +7.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.4 +2.8%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.8 -4.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 111.5 +.9%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.0 +.4%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.5 +.4%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.7 -.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.2%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.8 -.8%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.5% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.6% +20.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.40% unch.: CPI YoY +3.50% +7.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -5.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 24.0 -16.5 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 .75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +1.0 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.8 -.5% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.5 -1.3%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 141.0 +47.8%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 405.10 -6.8% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 218.0 unch.

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 57.4 +3.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 139.6 +.3%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 116.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 554.0 -1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .42 -3.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.4% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,442.1B +.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 203,250 -1.3%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% -10.0 basis points
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.6 -1.3%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.94% +13.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 230,800 -4.1%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.40% +10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +15.0% +13.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $140.4M -.1%

• Nationwide Gas $4.47/gallon +.17/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,336.0 -4.9%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,500.1/40 ft Box +.5%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,897.2 +.5%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 500.0 +53.9%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 91.8 -8.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 271,305 -9.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,700,658 +37.5% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.6 -1.0 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.8%

Leading Sectors

• Cyber Security +5.3%

• Digital Health +4.0%
• Medical Equipment +2.0%

• Pharma +2.0%
  

• Shipping +2.0%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Construction -3.7%

• Computer Services -4.4%
  

• Banks -5.1%

• Oil Service -6.1%
  

• Gambling -7.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)

• MSTR, ABTC, MARA, COIN, PS, BMNR, HOOD, PURR, ALMR, CRCL, AERO, ASST, INSP, MG, SSMR, TRMD, HTFL, ELMT, FPS, COO, YETI, GFS, FRNM and HAFN

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)

• BCS, AMCX, PSKY, VOD, BETA, GOLD, AN, F, COGT, LEN, ROCK, VC, REAX, NFLX, GM, QCOM, TRLV, BTU, LFTO, NUE, CEPU, NNE, HELP and XENE

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Fears, Fed Rate-Hike Concerns, Commodity/Biotech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -19 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -7 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +170 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Aug. is estimated to rise to -.06 versus -.08 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, BofA Healthcare Conference, Precious Metals Summit and the ROSCon Global Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25 to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 33.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%. 
• Crude Oil 101.4/bbl. -.5%. 
• Gold 4,386.3 USD/t oz. -.28%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.12 -.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.0 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 131.1 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.94% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.04% -4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.47%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and biotech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Close on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -2.5%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.5 +2.7% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.1 -2.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.2 -1.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.7 -1.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .9 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 +1.0

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +3.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.5 -.6

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 17.3 +.7
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +19.8% -5.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 401.50 +.22:  Growth Rate +22.4% unch., P/E 19.0 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.27% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 983.40 +2.40: Growth Rate +46.5% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 26.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.1 +1.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 78.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.9 -1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.93% -9.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 +2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 42.6%(unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.4% 2) Insurance -.3% 3) Construction -.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CBIO, NSIT, NVST, BLDR, ATRO, ASND, ASTH, BBNX, KIDS, IMXI, LAD, CRWV, REAX, JXN, MTZ, SWMR, TTAN, SAH, AN and DSP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SPXS 2) GNRC 3) ARKG 4) TMUS 5) AS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) DVLT 2) BBNX 3) INV 4) CAR 5) SMPL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) KRE 4) IYF 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume