Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,748.9 +3.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 54,069.6 +2.9%

• NASDAQ 26,665.7 +5.1%

• Russell 2000 3,034.6 +3.3%

• NYSE FANG+ 18,687.3 +8.0%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 327.7 +9.1%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 35.6 +6.7%

• Wilshire 5000 76,831.4 +3.7%

• Russell 1000 Growth 5,008.8 +4.9%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,529.2 +2.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 940.8 -.1%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 271.4 +3.0%
  

• NYSE Technology 9,516.6 +7.0%

• Transports 21,537.9 +2.4%

• Utilities 1,101.4 -1.8%

• MSCI Europe Banks 139.1 +1.6%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 65.45 +2.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 268.97 +1.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 135.78 -.01%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 623,527 +.5%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 -23.3%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 413 +312

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -15.4 -42.6%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 120,108 +47.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,859795 -.3%

• Total Put/Call .77 -12.8%

• OEX Put/Call .38 +4.8%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 -1.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.0 -.4%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.31 +26.0 basis point
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +11.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -6.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .57 -2.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 10.2 +4.8%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.43 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.95 -.1%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,320.5 +3.8%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  79.7 unch.

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.909 Trillion +.7%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.297 Million

• AAII % Bulls 37.0 +19.4%

• AAII % Bears 38.0 -9.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (Moved to GREED from FEAR) +23.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 377.0 -1.9%

• Crude Oil 78.12/bbl. -10.0%

• Reformulated Gasoline 298.40 -6.2%

• Natural Gas 2.66 -4.3%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 76.6 USD/Megawatt -7.1% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.7 euros/megawatt-hour -6.9%
  

• Heating Oil 391.0 -5.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 129.8 (1,000/metric ton) -2.8%

• Gold 4,336.9 +7.3%
• Silver 63.3 +9.9%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 179.4 +1.5%

• Copper 659.3 +1.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 380.0 USD/Metric Tonne -3.9%

• China Iron Ore Spot 94.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 21,025.0 USD/metric tonne -3.2%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.20(price per million tokens) -11.6% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 49.66 +1.9%  

• CME Lumber 574.0 -6.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,486.8 +2.9%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 340.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 397.50 USD/Short Ton -6.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.8% +80.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.6 +1.8 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.68 +10.7%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 225.2 +55.7% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 74.0 +18.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 173.9 -22.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 -.4
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(442 of 500 reporting) +51.4% -5.6 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 387.59 +8.32:  Growth Rate +31.8% +1.7 percentage points, P/E 19.9 +.5
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.23% +22.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% +.1 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 942.53 +17.90: Growth Rate +81.8% +3.5 percentage points, P/E 19.5 +1.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.50 -8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.9 +1.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.6 -2.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 56.1%(+23.1 percentage points) chance of no change, 43.9%(-23.1 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 9/16

• US Dollar Index 99.6 -.3%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,897.3 +.3%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 64,782.6 +2.1%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 208.4 -.4%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.35 unch.

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 45.5 +.75 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.66% -8.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.93% -7.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.701 Trillion +.2%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.253 Billion +10.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.5 -5.8%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.6 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 77.0 -4.0 basis point
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.6 -3.0%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.3 -2.1%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.0 -1.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.1 -11.3%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.5 -6.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.8 -.3%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.2 +.4%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 122.1 +1.8%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.3% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.1% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.0% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.31% unch.: CPI YoY +3.42% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.71 -21.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 14.75 +.75 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.75 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .50 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.75 -3.8% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.7 +9.3%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 151.0 unch.
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 418.5 -7.6% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 224.0 +16.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.6 -3.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 140.8 -3.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 114.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 559.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .44 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.5% -10.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,427.1B +2.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 198,750 -2.2%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.6 -1.6%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.78% +6.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 240,000 -2.9%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.2% +10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% unch.
• Box Office Weekly Gross $306.1M n/a

• Nationwide Gas $4.04/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,057.0 +11.9%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,297.5/40 ft Box +1.0%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,839.0 -.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 202.50 -1.2%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 97.3 -4.5%

• Rail Freight Carloads 293,029 +.06%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,794,275 +7.5% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.9 +.3 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 44.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +5.1%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value +1.9%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +19.0%

• Space +16.8%
• Robotics +10.2%

• Semis +8.7%
  

• Software +8.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• REITs -.5%

• I-Banks -.7%
  

• Utilities -1.6%

• Gambling -2.7%
  

• Energy -4.7%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (73)

• DOCS, MTW, QNST, TEAM, PUBM, CRSR, TWLO, FIGS, SPT, NTRA, PSIX, OMDA, FIVN, FLR, HALO, ROAD, AXTI, TNDM, GRDN, ABNB, SVV, TILE, OKLO, WLDN, CON, CVSA, ONTO, IAG, COHR, DV, ZLAB, FOXF, AAOI, SPCX, MP, ICUI, CART, MITK, CDE, PLTR, CAI, GFI, ERO, EQX, MATV, MSIF, AAUC, TENX, PLSE, WPP, NET, AEM, UBER, DKNG, AMPH, IBTA, AGI, WAY, SSMR, ONC, EFC, GMAB, MAIN, ZD, FSLR, MMS, DEO, KRP, ETSY, OBDC and BMRN 

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (23)

• ACIW, CLMT, LOMA, EZPW, WDC, AKAM, PGNY, ELAN, HUT, ANIP, LB, ESE, AMRZ, NEWT, TDS, POST, MATW, ASIX, IIIV, TTD, LASR, ODEL and SEZL

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Declining Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +400 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -7 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +5 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary/transport sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXSM)/-.89
• (B)/.83
• (CAMT)/.76
• (DOLE)/.46
• (EMBJ)/.62 

After the Close: 

• (AAON)/.51
• (ACM)/1.46
• (ACHR)/-.34
• (HIMS)/-.05
• (PLUG)/-.08
• (RKLB)/-.06
• (SPG)/3.22
• (UPWK)/.34
• (USAR)/-.11 

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (MNST) 2-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CB Employment Trends Index for July, KeyBanc Tech Forum, Citi Power/Energy Conference, TD Cowen Communications Infrastructure Summit and the Canaccord Growth Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Iran will seek to bar US and Israeli ships from the Strait of Hormuz and require compensation from hostile countries before they’re allowed to use it, according to local reports. 
• The White House has invited top executives from the US critical minerals industry to a meeting Friday with President Donald Trump meant to demonstrate the administration’s commitment to wean the nation off supply chains dominated by China. 
• President Donald Trump has signed an order imposing tariffs on imported polysilicon used in semiconductors and solar panels in a bid to reduce US reliance on foreign supplies that threatens national security.
• SpaceX plans to build its own power plants to support the massive semiconductor manufacturing facility it’s developing in Texas with Tesla.
• The Justice Department said it has found Duke University School of Law discriminated against applicants based on race, the Trump administration’s latest move in its wide-ranging higher education pressure campaign.
• Fed Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said that with inflation running above the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers cannot afford to tolerate higher inflation while they wait for the possibility of stronger productivity growth.
• Nscale is telling prospective investors it has about $51 billion of total contracted revenue ahead of a US IPO that could take place as soon as in September.
• A days-long Bitcoin hack of "cold wallets" is further undermining confidence in an industry already facing pressure on multiple fronts. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• IRGC Strikes 'Hostile Targets' In Hormuz As Iran Declares Oman Deal Bans US-Israeli Vessels From Strait. 
• Fauci's fed-up wife flips the bird as ex-top doc miserably takes out trash hours after contempt vote. 
• These Are America's Fastest-Aging States. 
• A familiar act of mainstream media sophistry: work backward from a partisan verdict and then call the result analysis. The truth is wages are up for Americans across the distribution, but importantly earnings growth for Main Street workers at the 25th earnings percentile was 5.5% year over year in the latest data this past quarter—more than three times the growth experienced by workers at the 75th percentile. Median weekly earnings also rose a robust 4.6%, well outpacing inflation. This marks a stark improvement from the loss of purchasing power Main Street Americans experienced during the Biden Administration. 
• Mexico Bans Fracking In Key Shale Basin.    
• The Financial Consequences Of 'Gray' Divorce.
• It’s official: letters to prosecute Fauci have been hand delivered to
  @DOJ.
• These Are The States With The Most Empty Homes.
• Taking the pulse of global markets.
• Sen. "Mitch McConnell" (R-KY) said Thursday that he has been "discharged" from a rehabilitation center, nearly two months after he was hospitalized. "Earlier today, I was discharged from the rehabilitation center to continue my recovery at home," he said in a statement. The statement did not say when McConnell is expected to return to Capitol Hill.
• Voter Files In Arizona's Largest County Illegally Obtained In 2020, Records Show.
• BREAKING: A secret bot army boosting Mamdani on X appears to be operating from City Hall, according to an exclusive report. Cyber experts say they’re “100% sure” the IP addresses trace back there. So much of the DSA’s online support is astroturfed.
• Americans now pay more in taxes than they spend on food, clothing, and shelter combined. Think about that. Government has become so big and bloated that taxes cost more than life's basic necessities. Every American taxpayer should be outraged.
• Breaking News: Scientists have used A.I. to create new viruses for the first time, raising hopes for medical advances while also raising the possibility that the technology could someday be used to invent dangerous pathogens. just great.        
• Watch: Mamdani Booed Off Stage At Pro-Police Event As 9/11 Backlash Builds.
• US Immigration Agency Asks Public To Report Fraud, Anti-Government Activities.
• DeepSeek Resumes $74BN Mega-Raise - Then Warns It's Jacking-Up Prices.
• DoorDash Wins Federal Approval To Fly Its Own Delivery Drones.
• The COVID Lockdowns Gave America A Glimpse Of Socialism.
• Bonds Battered By Big Tech Issuance, Black Gold Bounce; Stocks Keep Sliding As Credit Reveals Reality.      

• @CNBC  

• Iran's chief negotiator accuses Trump of 'theater diplomacy' with Hormuz traffic near standstill. 
• Meta ordered to pay $567 million into abatement fund as remedy to child harms case in New Mexico. 
• CNBC Daily Open: Trump's deal seems to be in dire straits. 
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders await big jobs report: Live updates.    
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Sweetgreen, Airbnb, DraftKings, Trade Desk and more.
• What Friday's jobs report could mean for investors.  

• @TheTranscript

• Meta ordered to pay $567 million into abatement fund as remedy to child harms case in New Mexico.

• @WallStEngine

• The economics on $AKAM’s large cloud deals are surprisingly strong for GPU infrastructure: > Take-or-pay commitments. > Mid-60s to mid-70s cash gross margins. > Low-20s to low-30s operating margins. Management says these economics generally apply across both signed deals and the active pipeline.
• TRUMP SETS POLYSILICON TARIFFS AND PRICE FLOORS. President Trump signed a Section 232 action imposing a 15% ad valorem tariff on polysilicon derivative imports.
  $FSLR. The US will also set minimum import prices of $21 per kilogram for polysilicon and $100 per kilogram for polysilicon ingots and wafers. Polysilicon is a key material used in semiconductor manufacturing and solar panels. The measures are intended to support domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign supplies. 
• CLOUDFLARE $NET Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $696.1M (Est. $666M) ; +36% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.29 (Est. $0.27) ; +38% YoY. Oper Income: $96.1M (Est. $90.2M) ; +33% YoY. FCF: $56.4M (Est. $59.2M); +69% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue: $2.86B-$2.87B (Est. $2.81B). Operating Income: $443M-$445M (Est. $419M). EPS: $1.25-$1.26 (Est. $1.20).  
• AIRBNB $ABNB Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $3.6B (Est. $3.58B) ; +17% YoY. EPS: $1.37 (Est. $1.25) ; +33% YoY. Adj. EBITDA: $1.3B (Est. $1.23B) ; +21% YoY. Gross Booking Value (GBV): $27.2B (Est. $26.42B) ; +16% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Revenue Growth: At least mid teens. Adjusted EBITDA Margin: At least 35.5%. Effective Tax Rate: High teens. 
• TWILIO $TWLO Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $1.5B (Est. $1.43B) ; +22% reported. Adj. EPS: $1.47 (Est. $1.32) ; +24% YoY. FCF: $352.6M (Est. $322M) ; +34% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: Free Cash Flow: $1.1B-$1.2B (Est. $1.1B). Revenue Growth: +18%-+18.5%. Organic Revenue Growth: +13%-+13.5% YoY. Non-GAAP Op. Income: $1.1B-$1.2B. 
• APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS $AAOI Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $191.9M (Est. $190M) ; +86% YoY. Adj. EPS: $0.06 (Est. $0.01). Non-GAAP Net Income: $5.5M (Est. $1.7M). Q3 Guide: Revenue: $255M-$290M (Est. $278M) . EPS: $0.11-$0.26 (Est. $0.28). Net Income: $10.1M-$24.0M (Est. $25.2M). Non-GAAP Gross Margin: 29% to 30.5%. 

• @MerengoFS 

• $TTWO Earnings Preview. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.40 USD/Metric Tonne -.74%. 
• Crude Oil 78.20/bbl. +1.1% 
• Gold 4,310.90 USD/t oz. +.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.30 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.47 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.0 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.68%  unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.94% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by basic material and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.