Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AAON)/.57
• (AMG)/8.79
• (B)/.79
• (CNH)/.10
• (CEG)/3.90
• (NRG)/3.35 

After the Close: 

• (ACHR)/-.34
• (ASTS)/-.42
• (ETD)/.26
• (HRB)/-1.43
• (HIMS)/.06
• (LIF)/.16
• (OXY)/1.45
• (ONTO)/2.30
• (QLYS)/1.96
• (RKLB)/-.07
• (SANM)/3.27
• (TTWO)/.97
• (TDW)/.72 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for Sept. 

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1Yr Inflation Expectations Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to +3.78% versus +3.9% in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, 3Y T-Note auction, Guggenheim Healthcare Innovation Conference, Stifel Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, UBS Healthcare Conference, (ALB) investor meeting and the RBC Precious Metals Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -7.0% to -2.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +1.0 basis point.   
• China Sovereign CDS 36.75 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 93.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.03%. 
• Crude Oil 91.10/bbl. +.7%. 
• Gold 4,077.0 USD/t oz. -.90%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.16 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.22 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 111.90 -2.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.84% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.82% -6.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.90%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.60%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on "Blue Wave" Policy Ramification Second Thoughts, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Slowdown Fears, Forced Selling Rumors, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.9 +5.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.75 -2.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -7.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.1 -.1% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.9 +3.8% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.8 +3.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.7 +2.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -2.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(419 of 500 reporting) +27.8% -.8 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 415.20 +.22:  Growth Rate +26.6% unch., P/E 17.9 -.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,102.95 +.59: Growth Rate +64.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.3 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .95 +21.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 35.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.6 -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 90.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.1% -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.83% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 63.2% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 47.8%(+11.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2,970 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -261 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -48 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -6.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation -11.6% 2) Space -10.2% 3) Alt Energy -7.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BLLN, TH, GOOD, FUTU, CCJ, MGRC, WES, DDOG, PYTM, BWXT, TDY, BRCB, WBI, VST, MP, RYTM, ETN, MPWR, IBKR, ENTG, PAYC, FCX, TXN, VECO, ASML, MOD, ECG, YPF, GEV, ZGN, CNR, RVMD, TSEM, CAVA, AMSC, EME, GFS, MWH, CVSA, QCOM, URGN, SANM, ECHO, TSM, GDS, PSIX, RDVT, CGNX, AXON, CORZ, LB, STM, Z, MCHP, LMND, SEI, TSLA, SKHY, SITM, TER, FOUR, ARM, CLS, CRWV, LSPD, PWR, GLW, CMCO, COHR, NVT, MELI, FLEX, NGVT, SIMO, STRL, ACMR, EXPE, DOCN, ROK, CYTK, WMS, MRVL, BRVE, POWL, VRT, CIEN, IESC, ASTS, TTMI, PNTG, UMC, AMD, MU, NBIS, TTAM, APLD, PBH, KELYA, IREN, BE, LOPE, SHOO, STRA, POWI, FPS, ROOT, ASX, MTSI, MBUU, COHU, AAOI, SNDK, CSV, GIL, CPS, MXL, LGN, ARQT, BROS, ROAD, DAVE, RELY, ROCK, FSLY and VCYT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLV 2) LAES 3) KKR 4) VXX 5) EWT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) AMD 3) TSLA 4) URGN 5) STVN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) IXN 5) MISL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming +1.5% 2) Gold & Silver +.3% 3) Foods -.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AEHL, ADMA, APP, WRBY, XERS, ECPG, TBI, MGNI, EPAM, ARDT, LYNX, SEZL, ONT, U, ENOV, PGNY, DLX, AGL, VCEL, TM, VERX, NVRI, GCT, CF, EWTX, IPAR, CPAY, VYX, ACHC, QNST, RYN, OGC, COLL, ALGT, TPR, SONY, APPN, HMN, SPHR, CARS, AAUC, LOAR, TREE, BSY, COKE, VNT, EE, MNSO, MSI, RGLD, PRMB, CDRE, WD, BKSY, ECVT, PLMR, COLD, NTES, PRKS, ASIX, VRSK, RPD, CAH, MUR, PRVA, EGO, CHRD, HURN, HELE, MOS and VSEC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MIR 2) ANNX 3) ENOV 4) PTON 5) URA 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) ADMA 3) LYNX 4) SEZL 5) PGNY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLY 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) IYC

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AMR)/-.64
• (BLMN)/-.24
• (CLMT)/1.63
• (CHTR)/8.90
• (DK)/8.05
• (ELAN)/.20
• (FLR)/.80
• (BEN)/.77
• (HUM)/-1.00
• (MRNA)/-1.10
• (OKLO)/-.27
• (PPL)/.53
• (WULF)/-.18
• (UAA)/-.01 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated to rise to 65K versus 29K in Sept. 
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in Sept. 

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Nov. is estimated at 48.0 versus 48.0 in Oct.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index  for Nov. is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in Oct.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Sept. is estimated to rise to $13.8B versus $8.281B in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking and the (QGEN) shareholders meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST