Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Oil Decline, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.1 +10.7% (new series)
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.0 +.8% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.10 -4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.8 +7.6% (new series)
• Emerging Market CDS Index 143.9 +9.6% (new series)
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.5 +8.2% (new series)
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.2
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.2 -2.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 27.2 -3.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 63.8 -2.1

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.2 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 500 reporting) +19.8% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.04 +.54:  Growth Rate +22.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.3 +.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 985.45 +2.05: Growth Rate +46.8% +.3 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.27 +5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 20.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.3 +.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 73.9 euros/megawatt-hour -7.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 9.4 -.5 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +5.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.96% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 47.1% (+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 44.4%(-.5 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,500 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +69 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +26 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +250 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -2.2% 2) Gold & Silver -1.0% 3) Road & Rail -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PS, NTR, HMY, UPS, BBT, UTI, EE, NVO, TPB, ZTO, PBLS and BRVE 

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BTBT 2) NUAI 3) WBD 4) DHT 5) PSKY

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PRCT 2) BZAI 3) MOS 4) SMPL 5) CAPR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLV 3) IGV 4) TDIV 5) RSPT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +4.2% 2) AI Innovation +3.8% 3) Space +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GRAL, USDE, ARM, FSLY, MRNA, SECZ, AXTI, HELP, META, LUNR, GRPN, INTC, RMBS, AKAM, WBD, USAR, AMRX, AMD, HHH, NNE, LION, MSTR, RKLB, BMNR, CRWV, SHEN, MXL, MNRO, WRBY, BURL, SDGR, CRDO, SHOP, NICE, BLSH, CIFR, SNX, COIN, CRWD, NVAX, HOOD, U, RIOT, SITM, AVBP, DSP, AERO, CRI, NEOG, TTAN, CAE, CPA, XP and ANIP

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) REI 2) WU 3) SHOP 4) WBD 5) RMBS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) INTC 2) CRML 3) ARM 4) AMRX 5) GLND

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) SOXX 3) BKGI 4) SHLD 5) HACK

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AZO)/54.08
• (MLKN)/.35
• (THO)/.89 

After the Close: 

• (KBH)/.89
• (wor)/.75 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. 

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 2.0 versus 4.0 in Aug.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly ADP employment change index, M2 Money Supply MoM for Aug., API weekly crude oil stock report, BofA Healthcare Conference, Sidoti Small Cap Conference, (ONON) investor day, (WOR) annual meeting and the StoneX Nuclear Innovation Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -13.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.9 -3.0
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 59.7% of Issues Advancing, 38.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .97 -35.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$251.7M
  
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 132 New Lows
• 45.9% (+1.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.2 +2.5

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 8.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31st 7.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 13.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 5.0% -2.0 percentage points
• US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% unch.
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31st 42.0% +8.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 132.7 +.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 65.0 -5.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 404.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 271.5 +.1%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.1 +1.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) +5.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.6 -24.3%
• Vix 15.0 +1.4%
• Total Put/Call .72 -10.0%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• US and Chinese officials began talks in New York to lay the groundwork for a high-profile summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, as the world’s two biggest economies seek to maintain — and potentially extend — a fragile trade truce. 
• Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservatives posted their worst-ever result in a German state election. 
• As the world focuses on the oil market, the war in Ukraine is snarling vital grain shipments. 
• Qatar Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is “wrong” when he said that the strategic Strait of Hormuz will be worthless in two years. 
• The AI boom has seeped into every part of the economy, and investors looking to diversify are having a hard time escaping it. 
• Italy’s center-right government moved to counter the surge of the ultranationalist National Future party, with Giorgia Meloni proposing new education laws that would place more restrictions on foreigners. 
• Elon Musk said his Boring Co. venture is working on a tunnel project in Texas that would connect the cities of Austin and San Antonio. 
• On electoral prediction markets, bets can be placed in an attempt to influence the results, not just predict them. Here's what to know. 
• Apple’s new intelligent personal hub strategy hints at the company’s upcoming home AI device. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.  

• @Zerohedge 

• Utah Valley University Faculty's Sickening Post-Assassination Emails About Charlie Kirk Exposed. 
• Trump Announces 'AI Force', Plans To Name AI Czar As US Pushes Tech Dominance. 
• Oracle Loans Backing Massive New Mexico Data Center Tumble To Stressed Levels. 
• Drug 10 Times Stronger Than Fentanyl Seized In San Francisco. 
• *BRENT OIL OPENS 1% HIGHER WITH SUPPLY RISKS, DIPLOMACY IN FOCUS. 
• "Not Enough Raw Material!" - Resource Wars Put Tungsten In Crosshairs As Western Rearmament Supercycle Looms. 
• With The Fed Behind Us… 
• Grassley Urges Diesel Export Ban As Global Fuel Crisis Stokes Resource Nationalism Fears. 
• Bessent And He Lifeng Open High-Stakes Trade Talks Ahead Of Trump-Xi Summit. 
• Goldman's "Boy Who Cried Baskets" Buys The AI Dip: Agents Are Here, Short Consumer 'Stickiness'. 
• Watch: British Cops Grill Street-Preacher After Someone Takes 'Offense' At Bible Passages. 
• Ukraine Pounds Major Moscow Refinery As Global Diesel Crisis Threatens Economic Shock. 
• Massie Explains Strategy For Going After Hegseth. 
• "Calm Down, Lefties! Quiet!": French Soldiers Applaud Military Chaplain's Warning Of 'Great Replacement'. 
• Foreign Capital Returns To Brazil As Goldman Clients See 20% Stock Rally If Bolsonaro Defeats Socialist. 
• Total PsAI-Op: How Altman, Amodei, And The 'EA' Cult Are Milking "Rogue AI" Breakouts To Protect A Trillion-Dollar Bubble. 
• Tesla Engineers Audit Chinese Suppliers As Optimus Commercialization Nears. 
• The Apocalyptic Game: Panic And Opportunity. 
• *ZELENSKYY SAYS TRUMP AGREED TO MEET HIM IN NEW YORK. 
• Morgan Stanley Asks The "Key Question": How Does Warsh Intend To Deliver Price Stability. 
• Ocean Container Freight Costs Explode, Rivaling COVID-Era Crisis Highs. 
• Trump Says His Planned DC Arch Would Host Drones And Snipers. 
• Health Agency Looking At Electromagnetic Fields, Wireless Radiation: RFK Jr.              .

• @CNBC 

• Stock futures are little changed after Dow posts third straight losing week: Live updates. 
• Russia's ruling pro-Putin party on track to win wartime election after drones strike Moscow. 
• Fed's Kashkari reportedly says inflation is still too high across the U.S. economy.
• The 'robot relations' department may become reality in workplace of the future.

• @BasedSamParker

• Now that the Epstein Files Transparency Act 2 is on the verge of being brought to a vote, suddenly there's an ethics complaint against Lauren Boebert, one month after her son was arrested on 2.5-year old bogus charges. Don't tell me this isn't retaliation & a warning to other GOP congressmen who are thinking of stepping out of line: (video)

• @BrettErickson28

• BREAKING: The Ukrainians have struck the Kaopotnya oil refinery in Moscow earlier today. They have now struck multiple Russia refineries in recent days after President Trump “claimed” Russia and Ukraine had agreed to stop striking energy infrastructure. Yet further damage to the global energy markets. (video)

• @JBollee

• In his tweet congratulating the strikes against Moscow tonight, Zelensky lists the weapons used. Yet these are weapons recently funded by European countries, particularly Denmark, Germany, and Lithuania. Nothing obliged him to make this listing, even if everyone knows full well that the Ukrainian army holds on only thanks to the logistical and financial support of NATO countries. The approach is of unheard-of cynicism. He is pushing Russia to strike directly at the countries that funded the weapons mentioned. He thus justifies a scenario of conflict escalation: the dream of the Europhiles who no longer hide anything! Their pro-war propaganda has never been so strong.

• @drawandstrike

• It's not really Ukraine. That's the 'joke'. It's NATO in an undeclared war on Russia using Ukraine as a proxy. (video)

• @Gatewaypundit

• Destabilizing the World’s Oil Supply: Ukraine Has Bombed Russian Oil Facilities 305 Times Since 2022 Including Last Night After They Promised Trump They Would Halt Refinery Attacks.
• America’s enemies are working against President Donald Trump. They want him gravely damaged before the midterm elections in five weeks. On September 14, 2026, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Ukraine had agreed to halt attacks on Russian energy targets: Read the rest of the story, link in the comments. 

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: France is running out of fuel. 11% of France's stations nationwide are now out of petrol or diesel, one in nine, with 16% of stations short in Grand Est, 15% in Pays de la Loire, 14% in Occitanie, and 13% in Centre-Val de Loire, per government figures published this morning. The official count only registers a station as short if it has no petrol at all or no diesel at all, so a station out of one grade but holding another is not counted, meaning the real shortage is much larger. French diesel averages €2.406 a litre, about $10.45 a gallon. Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in history.

•  @unusual_whales

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has nearly doubled his net worth to over $7 billion since becoming a member of Trump’s Cabinet, per Forbes.

• @George_On_X

• I have no idea if Lauren Boebert is guilty of what she is being accused of today. Several of the parties accused have already said these allegations are ridiculous including Boebert herself. But what I do know is: David B. Wheeler is who filed the sworn complaint. This is the same David B. Wheeler that: * Is the treasurer of the American Muckrakers PAC, which became nationally known in 2022 for its campaign to defeat Boebert in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District. * Made controversial allegations about Boebert in 2022, including that she had previously worked as a paid escort. The web site accompanying those allegations used a photograph of a totally different woman...

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.50 +6.0 basis points. (new series)
• China Sovereign CDS 34.25 +1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.40 USD/Metric Tonne +.14%.
• Crude Oil 97.89/bbl. -2.4%
• Gold 4,414.30 USD/t oz. -.24% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.14 -.04%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.99 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 132.0 -.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.97% -3.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.07% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -1.1%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.
• S&P 500 futures +.37%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.64%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and pharma shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% Net Long heading into the week.