Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Sector Rotation, Escalating Iran Tensions, Crypto Plunge, Tech/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.9 +.6%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.11 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 +.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.9 +.2%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.2 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.3 -.1 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 16.9 -6.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.6 +.5 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(235 of 500 reporting) +13.9% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.18 +.29:  Growth Rate +17.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.7 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% -12.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +18.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 498.79 +1.95: Growth Rate +21.4% +.5 percentage point, P/E 29.6 -.8
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 -9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 71.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.3 -2.1% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.3% +.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +4.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.40 +3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.1% (-.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 46.5%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +243 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -58 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/biotech/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -1.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation -4.2% 2) Defense -4.1% 3) Semis -4.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TCOM, UBER, DB, BKD, TTWO, UBS, EBAY, SNOW, TLN, COIN, NVO, GILT, SQM, RDDT, VST, MLI, TEM, COHR, VICR, SHOO, NXE, LBRT, WDC, SCCO, VLTO, NTRA, HOOD, PFGC, VRNS, USAR, RDW, MU, APH, CCJ, EFXT, CRDO, W, TSEM, PLTR, FLNC, WGS, BKSY, WLDN, EOSE, SNDK, FLEX, LASR, AMPX, INOD, BSX, APP, IREN, AMD, VELO, INTA, MRCY and AZTA

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SOLS 2) XLP 3) FBTC 4) ALGN 5) APH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) BSX 3) AMD 4) AZTA 5) LUMN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLK 3) XOP 4) SMH 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.3% 2) Energy +3.1% 3) Gambling +3.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SLAB, ENPH, COLM, SKY, REYN, FTV, POWL, CBT, ZWS, LEA, CSL, ACT, SMCI, RUN, DVA, GPK, LLY, OLN, ODFL, SEDG, AMGN, SLGN, CRUS, MGM, GSK, AMCR, CE, ESAB, SM, FSV, KMT, SAIA, DOW, TECH, MTCH, J, IP, GTES, JJSF, SYNA, CPRI, ZBIO, URI, AGI, AGYS, HUN, RNR, IEX, RNG, CHTR, FOUR, RNST, ITW, AGYS, VIA, APO, ZBRA, HPQ, WDAY, DVN, BCSF, HLMN, IR, ALGT, MEOH, IBP, SONO, BAM, CTRA, CLMT, VIA, BAM, RRX, CTRA, PAR, AIT, TPG, WFRD, ARES, STM, IMO, EFX, HG, CTSH, WEX, SIRI, KD, GWW, FIG, ARES, JKHY, LOGI, OCSL, TYL, LOGI, EMR, LITE, PNR, XPO, PSLV, ADBE, AB, PCOR, EVR, LIND, ROP, AB, SWK, HBAN, AVY, AAT, OXY, GGG and STLA

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XLB 2) FHN 3) COTY 4) HUN 5) OWL 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ENPH 2) SMCI 3) POWL 4) LEA 5) COLM

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AGCO)/1.86
• (AB)/.92
• (MT)/.58
• (BMY)/1.23
• (GOOS)/1.19 
• (CAH)/2.34
• (CARR)/.36
• (COP)/1.07
• (ROAD)/.31
• (CMI)/5.10
• (ENR)/.26
• (EL)/.83
• (FCFS)/2.31
• (HSY)/1.40
• (ICE)/1.68
• (IDCC)/1.18
• (ITT)/1.78
• (PTEN)/-.11
• (BTU)/.08
• (RL)/5.82
• (RBC)/2.86
• (ROK)/2.47
• (SNA)/4.93
• (TPR)/2.22
• (CI)/7.88
• (XEL)/.96
• (XPO)/.76 

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/.27
• (AMZN)/1.97
• (BE)/.31
• (BYD)/1.94
• (DLR)/1.82
• (DOCS)/.45
• (EQR)/1.03
• (FLS)/.94
• (FTNT)/.74
• (ILMN)/1.24
• (MCHP)/.43
• (POST)/1.69
• (POWI)/.19
• (RDDT)/.94
• (RBLX)/-.47
• (SSNC)/1.61
• (MSTR)/-.08
• (USAR)/-.16 
• (VRSN)/2.35
• (WERN)/.11 

Economic Release 

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for Jan. 

8:30 am EST 

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 212K versus 209K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1850K versus 1827K prior. 

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to rise to 7250K versus 7146K in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, ECB meeting, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (TSN) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +49.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 -.3
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 48.9% of Issues Advancing, 49.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 +29.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$166.3M
  
• 301 New 52-Week Highs, 95 New Lows
• 68.4% (+2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.1 +1.7

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 56.0% +3.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.3 -1.8%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 502.50 +19.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.5 -1.0%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 135.7 -5.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (moved to FEAR from GREED) -24.0
• 1-Day Vix 18.1 +24.9%
  
• Vix 20.5 +14.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 +3.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• China's Rare Earth 'Monopoly' - And Why Markets Will Break It.
• Sixth Circuit Throws Out DOJ Misconduct Complaint Against Judge Boasberg.
• "Subsector px action and desk flows point to cont'd ROTATIONS into areas like Materials, Energy, Industries and Utes / Staples as investors seemingly look for “cleaner” narratives (and px action) to underwrite (see R2K UP on the day)." - GS EOD.
• California's Hospice Fraud Explosion: Billions Drained From Taxpayers.
• "Explaining Today's Market Flows and Where It Goes Next".
• Young money is checking out: crypto adoption among 18–34 fell from 24% to 18% in 2025.   
• Melinda French Gates Breaks Silence On Explosive Claims About Bill Gates In Epstein Files.
• Why Skyrocketing Premiums Were Inevitable With Obamacare's Design.
• English Only: Florida Eliminates Foreign Language Options For Driver's License Testing.
• Trump Says Administration Will Seek $1 Billion In Damages From Harvard.
• *SMCI SEES 3Q NET SALES AT LEAST $12.3B, EST. $10.25B. *SMCI SEES FY NET SALES AT LEAST $40.0B, SAW AT LEAST $36B.
• *TRUMP: TALKS STILL GOING ON WITH IRAN. *TRUMP: DON'T WANT A REPEAT OF MIDNIGHT HAMMER WITH IRAN.
• Third Georgia Democrat Lawmaker Accused Of Pandemic Fraud.
• The Numbers Don't Lie... Again.       
• "What A F**king Day!": Tech Wrecks, Crypto Crashes, Bullion & Bonds Bounce.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia denies rift with OpenAI, while software and asset management stocks plunge.
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia-Pacific markets set to fall, tracking Wall Street losses after a tech-led pullback.
• Here's who analysts expect to gain from India’s U.S. and EU trade deals.
• S&P 500 futures are little changed after tech selloff drags down major averages: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Chipotle, Advanced Micro Devices, Amgen and more.

• @TheTranscript 

• AMD CEO @LisaSu: "2025 was a defining year for AMD, with record revenue and earnings driven by strong execution and broad- based demand for our high-performance and AI platforms. We are entering 2026 with strong momentum across our business,..." $AMD: -5% AH. 

• @MarioNawful

• JOHN THUNE BACKS OFF SAVE ACT: "VOTER IDs AREN’T WORTH THE HASSLE". Thune says triggering a talking filibuster over voter ID might be going too far... But for a bill that 80% of Americans support? Something’s not adding up. (video)
• FBI UNCOVERS CREEPY HOME BIO LAB PACKED WITH MYSTERY VIALS IN VEGAS RAID. FBI agents stormed a Las Vegas residence, discovering refrigerators stuffed with unlabeled vials of unknown liquids suggesting a clandestine biological operation. The property links to Jia Bei Zhu, a Chinese national already facing charges for flooding the market with unapproved COVID and HIV test kits. This raid echoes his prior California fiasco where authorities found pathogen labels for Ebola and tuberculosis alongside a thousand neglected mice.

• @EmeraldRobinson

• The Epstein files are the most important scandal in American history. They show: Satanic pedophiles conspired to be placed at the highest levels of our government & private industries. They clearly show: Epstein was an asset of Israeli govt & US govt. The nightmare is real.

• @LaraLogan

• It is outrageous that people like this are in elected positions - go home. The American people deserve better. Disgusting. Those making this happen should be in jail. (video) 

• @RobbyStarbuck

• The average American is essentially an indentured servant who must give their income to big government via force (taxes) in order to fund evil projects for the elite, their own replacement via migration and endless forms of fraud that help to annihilate our culture. This is an untenable relationship and reality. For many of us, it’s clear that it must be our life’s work to end this vicious scheme before it kills the country, culture and people we love.

• @Rob_Roos

• If you're not disturbed by this, you're not paying attention. Jeffrey Epstein, Bill Gates, Boris Nikolic, Mary Erdoes, Jes Staley (JP Morgan) — allegedly worked together to profit off futurepandemics. Here’s how: They set up offshore “arms” (shadowy financial entities based in tax havens) to move vaccine investments away from public scrutiny and accountability. They structured “reinsurance triggers” — financial contracts that pay out if a pandemic is declared. Think of it like betting on a disaster. All of this under the guise of charity. This isn’t philanthropy. This is a rigged system where global health becomes a playground for the ultra-rich to profit off human crisis in secret. The most evil people on this planet.

• @MJTruthUltra

• Holy crap, this is crazy.. Jeffrey Epstein was collaborating with Bitcoin developer biohacker and transhumanist Bryan Bishop to create 'the first live birth of a human “designer baby” and human cloning within five years, and was conducting initial experiments in UKRAINE. “Sounds like you could be the first investor as long as absolute anonymity is kept. I have always envisioned there would be anonymity requirements about babies-- we can't publicly identify who these are or their parents or benefactors, it would brand the child as (essentially, and sadly) a freak for life in the media. So I had always assumed the investor would need absolute anonymity, for these kinds of products. So the financial structure needs to be designed with these details in mind.” “This gets us out of our self-funded "garage biology" phase to the first live birth of a human designer baby, and possibly a human clone, within 5 years. Once we reach the first birth, everything changes and the world will never be the same again, much less the future of the human species”. (pic)

• @LaraLogan  

• This is becoming a form of torture - exposure without accountability is ultimately meaningless. Do you realize some of us knew this from the very beginning? Do you know how long we have all lived with this? It was bad enough having to endure every fake headline as they piled it on - now we are at the end of the line for accountability and still nothing?

• @nicksortor

• INFURIATING: Leader John Thune is already BACKING DOWN on the SAVE Act, saying there are “implications” to triggering a “talking filibuster”. IF YOU CAN’T EVEN PASS A BILL THAT 80% OF AMERICANS SUPPORT, YOU NEED TO RESIGN, @LeaderJohnThune. The implications of FRAUDULENT ELECTIONS are MUCH greater than forcing the Democrats to actually TALK during their filibuster. PUT THEM ON DEFENSE!

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Ever wonder why your Sky is a solid shade of White almost permanently these days? It’s because you’re living under a Geo-engineered shelf of cloud that looks like this from above, that’s why you no longer see White 3D fluffy clouds. Here is one adding to it to the layer. (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• We asked Rudy Giuliani, who built the prison where Jeffrey Epstein died, if he thinks he is still alive after new files reveal guards claimed his body was taken out in a van, his answer SHOCKED Us. “I find it highly unlikely that you could commit suicide in that prison…” “There is evidence that it may have happened… Was it ever investigated?… You’re quite right in having a sense of justifiable doubt about it…” (video)

• @paulsperry_

• BREAKING: DOJ sources tell me DAG Todd Blanche, a registered Democrat through 2024, fired Ed Martin on Dec. 31 and effectively shut down the Weaponization Working Group office. Blanche cleared out the WWG suite at Main Justice to make room for the latest Epstein files production. Blanche denied Martin staff and budget and is gumming up the works for Russiagate accountability ...

• @WallStreetApes

• HOLY CR*P!! James O’Keefe just got an FBI Official who “does investigations” saying NO ONE WILL BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE for the Minnesota fraud exposed. He says nobody will be arrested. Nobody will go to prison. He says it’s intentional. (INSANE) (video)

• @GuntherEagleman

• BREAKING: Sen. Tommy Tuberville just DROPPED A NUKE: “We gotta get rid of these voting machines. There’s a half dozen people here in the House and Senate that did not get elected. It was all bogus. We’ve seen the evidence.” Paper ballots only! (video)

• @mitchellvii

• Pam Bondi could shut down #ActBlue with indictments for money-laundering and cut off the #1 source for Democrat midterm cash tomorrow - but she doesn't. In April of 2025 Trump gave her a mandate to investigate #ActBlue for 6 months then report. Time's up @AGPamBondi!

• @BreannaMorello

• REPORT. Deputy AG Todd Blanche did not inform the Trump White House that he had removed Ed Martin from his position leading the Weaponization Working Group. This occurred despite President Trump personally appointing Ed Martin to that role.

• @EvanAkilgore

• United States Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche: "It is not a crime to party with Epstein" Horrible messaging from the Trump Administration. I'm in shock how tone deaf this is. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• MELINDA GATES WARNS OF A “RECKONING” - BREAKS HER SILENCE ON EPSTEIN AND POINTS STRAIGHT AT BILL GATES. In a raw on-camera moment on the Wild Card with Rachel Martin podcast, Melinda Gates says “we’re having a reckoning” as she finally speaks about Jeffrey Epstein and the people around him. She calls what happened to those girls “beyond heartbreaking” - and admits the Epstein revelations drag up “very painful times” from her marriage. Then she draws a hard line. The unanswered questions, she says, are not for her - they’re for “those people… and my ex-husband.” She explains she had to leave the marriage, had to step away from the foundation, and says she’s “grateful to be away from all the muck.” With Epstein files resurfacing and names back in the spotlight, her timing feels impossible to ignore. The reckoning she’s talking about doesn’t sound abstract - it sounds personal. And the man left holding the questions is Bill Gates. How much does Melinda Gates really know - and what does it mean for Bill Gates? (video)

• @realstewpeters

• Prepare the ground penetrating radar and cadaver dogs. We’ve got bodies of young foreign girls buried on the Epstein Zorro Ranch property. (pic)

• @War4theWest

• Amanda has finally pulled the big picture together: We allowed more foreign workers into STEM than new STEM jobs were created by a huge margin. Our govt and corporations ethnically cleansed Americans from STEM jobs. (graph)

• @cenkuygur

• The fact that national media refuses to touch this is amazing. To my knowledge, no one in legacy media has ever even discussed the possibility Epstein was Mossad when it is all over the files. Every time he goes to help a country, it is Israel. Not America, not any other country. (pic)

• @LibertyLockPod

• Not only do they have no intention of prosecuting Epstein's network but they have the nerve to be condescending at the same time. We need a reset. (video)

• @RepKiley

• An illegal bio lab was just raided in Vegas. It is directly linked to the secret Chinese lab found in California in 2023, which was oozing with E. Coli, HIV, and Malaria. Congress must pass our bill to find these illegal labs and shut them all down. (video)

• @Rach_IC

• ***URGENT*** I don't think I have EVER posted something urgent on X since I joined it in 2008, but if you want to know why prosecutions - especially over election fraud - aren't happening, here is your answer! This corrupt RINO in the DOJ, Todd Blanche, got our incredible election integrity hero @EdMartinDOJ fired from his position. Everyone needs to tell @realDonaldTrump to FIRE this RINO who hates election integrity!!!!!!!!!! Yes, it's great we're looking into the Epstein files and Russiagate, but there is still room to look into election fraud - which many of us like @KariLake and @AbrahamHamadeh believe is the most important issue. Please follow @paulsperry_ who has the guts to reveal this. I have worked for both state and local government so I understand how this works, it is VERY DIFFICULT to remove these merit-protected RINO employees, so they have immense power and pushback.

• @nicksortor

• JUST IN: Rep. Burchett GOES OFF insider trading still being allowed in Congress “This town is crooked—BOTH parties are in on it! It’s a very small club, and guess what America: YOU’RE NOT IN IT”. If any of us traded on insider knowledge we’d be in JAIL (video)

• @ChristianHeiens

• If Republicans in Indiana do not respond to this by immediately revisiting their idiotic decision to hand Democrats two free Congressional seats in a Trump+19 state, then they are deliberately throwing the midterms and should all be primaried out of office, starting with Senate President pro tempore @bray_rodric.
   

• @DC_Draino

• John Thune will go down as a liar if he reneges on voting on the SAVE Act. He made a deal to do a standing filibuster and now he’s trying to back out. Be a man of your word, Thune. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.25 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%. 
• Gold 5,077.6 USD/t oz. +2.9%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 +.12%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.29 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.8 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.