Monday, March 18, 2024

Tuesday Watch

X:

  • @elonmusk 
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @RealCandaceO
  • @stkirsch
  • @wideawake_media
  • @ImMeme0
  • @VigilantFox
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @Raymond82310289
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @AmericazOutlaw
  • @songpinganq
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 67.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.5 +.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.4 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.22%
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.30%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Nvidia AI Conference, Technical Buying, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.3 -.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .33 -52.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.7 -.13%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.2 +.65%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 13.5 +.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 143.0 +9.0
  • Total Put/Call .90 +13.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 +16.3%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$4.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 -1.2%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 286.1 -.98%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 255 -7
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.6 -.7% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 179.2 -.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 122.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.3 +1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.2 -.78%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 114.2 -1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 +.04%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -10.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.5 basis points +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 808.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.8 -.41%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 50.0 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 500 reporting) +16.5% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 248.68 +.23:  Growth Rate +11.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.82% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +55.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 316.98 +.17: Growth Rate +31.9% unch., P/E 31.2 -.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.12 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -40.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.3% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 51.9% -4.6 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.78% unch.: CPI YoY +3.33% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 96.8%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 56.1%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -265 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +267 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware -1.3% 2) Alt Energy -1.3% 3) Disk Drives -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OLMA, AU, ARCO, GLOB, SONO, APGE, MEI, NTCT, MP, LOGI, DRCT, NMRA, AVD, SBGI, RILY, ARCT, RBLX, FOUR, BMEA, SMCI, SAIC, CDLX, LI, MSTR, CRGX and GCT
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FCEL 2) BITF 3) AMLX 4) ACWI 5) WBD
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) JOAN 2) FSR 3) KIND 4) AMLX 5) FOUR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Internet +1.3% 2) Gambling +1.2% 3) Foods +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SMR, ROOT, TILE, HCP, ATMU, GOOG, MDGL, ATXS, VITL, ADBE, VRT and GPS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GOEV 2) ACB 3) VLY 4) EH 5) DLO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SMR 2) HCP 3) TLS 4) APP 5) LVO

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (TME)/.90
After the Close: 
  • (ZTO)/2.68
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Housing Starts for Feb. is estimated to rise to 1430K versus 1331K in Jan.
  • Building Permits for Feb. is estimated to rise to 1500K versus 1489K in Jan.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Jan.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, (NVDA) analyst meeting, (TTC) annual meeting, (POOL) investor day, Keybanc Life Sciences/Medtech Conference and the BofA Industrials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -1.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.1 +4.5
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 55.2% of Issues Advancing, 41.6% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.37 +39.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$72.3M
  • 88 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
  • 58.7% (+1.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.7 +1.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 140.84 -.23%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,207.1 +1.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 74.0 (Greed) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.3 -21.5%
  • Vix 14.3 -.5%
  • Total Put/Call .94 +19.0%