Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Oil Plunge, Sector Rotation, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 62.3 +.3%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.5 +1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .36 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .15 +10.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.5 -.7% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.2 -.6% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.6 -5.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 83.2 -2.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.4 -1.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.3 +1.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.8 +3.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(309 of 500 reporting) +29.3% +4.1 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 414.30 +.85:  Growth Rate +26.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.4 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.35% -6.0 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +41.2% -12.2 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,100.90 +3.48: Growth Rate +63.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 16.1 -.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .74 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.0 basis points (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.25 +1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 94.4 euros/megawatt-hour -9.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.6% unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% +.5 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.89% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -20.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 61.2% (+.9 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 42.7%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -141 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -35 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -5.1% 2) Energy -4.1% 3) Cyber Security -3.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• STRL, PAGP, MEOH, SHEL, AUPH, DHT, VLO, OPRA, DLR, TGS, NVT, PPTA, CEPU, MUSA, NVT, CCJ, RSI, FFIV, WES, DT, RDWR, CNQ, CRL, MOD, CRL, COHR, HCC, OXY, ICHR, NET, ALMR, VIST, BWLP, LNG, MH, FTNT, QURE, CHKP, SITM, YPF, AMD, ADEA, TTMI, EQNR, CAMT, FRO, TEN, SSL, NTRA, AEHR, CRWV, UPST, INTC, ORCL, TSEM, AXSM, VET, ECO, APLD, OKTA, GLXY, SIMO, AAOI, FROG, ASTS, CIEN, AKTS, DFTX, REPX, TXG, OBE, CBRS, SSMR, VG, MRVL, KRYS, MLYS, NSSC, AXTI, XRPN and LITE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LKQ 2) LI 3) NRG 4) RIOT 5) USAS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) KOS 2) LINC 3) FCEL 4) UNCY 5) AXSM

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) IGV 3) XLF 4) XLY 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +5.2% 2) Gambling +4.0% 3) Homebuilding -3.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PERI, IDXX, NXT, REAL, SFM, TEM, LOAR, WING, UPBD, RIVN, ENPH, CIGI, AIN, CPRI, INTA, GBX, CWK, ALKT, PRG, CVLG, RKT, BILI, ALK, WSC, BAM, BILI, PRKS, SAM, MHK, IMNM, REPL, SRAD, HGV, PNR, LKQ, FLUT, BMI, FTAI, JLL, EPAC, HWM, FDXF, PIPR, CPA, TAP, HOG, EXP, ETSY, BN, FUTU, PHM, TNL, ZG, NMRK, TGLS, EGO, PDD, NVST, KTB, RYZ, PATK, WY, ACEL, VLTO, APAM, SKY, RYN, SYK, FBIN, URGN, LAUR, TRN, CVNA, SKY, BSAC, BABA, UAL, WYNN, BRCB, CHDN, MPWR, GXO, REGN, BEP, PKX, ARES, WNC, ENOV, CWEN, BEPC and CCL

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BSX 2) INO 3) GXO 4) CC 5) PGY 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SEGG 2) TATT 3) IDXX 4) GUER 5) REGN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLP 3) IYE 4) IYK 5) XLV

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ADM)/1.60
• (APTV)/1.33
• (BNTX)/.67
• (DOCN)/.32
• (DD)/1.87
• (ETN)/3.54
• (EXPD)/2.22
• (RACE)/2.69
• (IT)/2.84
• (LDOS)/3.03
• (MPC)/25.37
• (PFE)/.73
• (RVTY)/1.30
• (SOP)/.47
• (SYY)/1.19
• (VITL)/-.11
• (WAT)/4.00
• (YUMC)/.88
• (YUM)/1.50 

After the Close: 

• (AMD)/1.95
• (AMGN)/5.79
• (ANDE)/1.11
• (ANET)/1.08
• (ALAB)/1.19
• (CAR)/8.01
• (XYZ)/1.03
• (BKNG)/4.49
• (CPNG)/-.09
• (DUOL)/.57
• (HURN)/2.47
• (MTW)/.20
• (MOD)/1.45
• (MOS)/-.01
• (PRU)/3.34
• (RRR)/.45
• (SWKS)/1.27
• (SMCI)/1.23
• (TOST)/.36 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• JOLTS Job Openings for Sept. is estimated to rise to 7162K versus 7079K in Aug.
• Factory Orders for Sept. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +.1% gain in Aug.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for Sept. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in Aug.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Sept. 

Afternoon

• Omdia Total Vehicle Sales for Oct. is estimated to fall to 15.8M versus 15.98M in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US mid-term elections, weekly ADP employment change reports, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP economic optimism index for Nov., API weekly crude oil stock report, (KMX) business update call and the (LRCX) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.8 +3.7
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 70.3% of Issues Advancing, 27.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +34.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$224.6M
  
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 59 New Lows
• 47.7% (+5.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.2 +1.2

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 6.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 6.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 7.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 3.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% unch.
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 31.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.4 -1.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 87.0 +20.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 45.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 462.0 -9.0 basis points
• France Sovereign CDS 95.7 -1.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.0 +.7%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 135.8 -.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 25.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.3 -31.2%
• Vix 19.6 +.9%
• Total Put/Call .93 unch.

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Prime Minister Mark Carney said he spoke with President Donald Trump and both sides would work on a “mutually beneficial” US-Canadian trade deal in the weeks ahead. 
• Gulf states fear that another US-Israeli attack on a better-prepared Iran could unleash an even more destructive war across the region. 
• Russia detained a teenager on suspicion of planning a terrorist attack on a Moscow park and museum, a day after a warning from US officials.  
• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says he sees a few “clearing events” ahead for the stock market that have the potential to take it lower temporarily, creating a great opportunity for investors to pile back in. 
• Japanese authorities are prepared to respond if currency market movements become disorderly, acting in accordance with a standing pact with her US counterpart, says Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.     
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.  

• @Zerohedge  

• KIOXIA SHARES FALL 14% AFTER PROFIT FORECAST MISSES ESTIMATE.
• Radiant Wins First-Ever DOE OK For Full-Power Microreactor As Nuclear Stocks Crash To Multi-Year Lows.  
• A Year After Saying "Short Hyperscaler Bonds", Hartnett Now Says Buy Them. 
• The Ghosts Of Crises Past To Haunt The Midterms: Natixis Says A Democratic Sweep Could Exorcise The AI Bond Bear. 
• Morgan Stanley frames it in utility terms: demand of 180 GW in 2028 versus supply of 137 GW, a 43 GW gap that has nearly tripled from 15 GW this year. 
• Pokemon Card Mania Sparks Bubble Fear: "Just Doing A Crazy Bull Run". 
• Treasury Uncovers $8 Billion In Suspicious Foreign-Directed Wire Payments: Bessent. 
• The 70 Gigawatt Hole: Wall Street Maps How Far America's Electric Grid Is Falling Behind AI Demand. 
• "No Workable Plan": Obama Judge Throws Out DOJ Bid To Halt Alaska Certification If 'Real' Sullivan Loses. 
• David Stockman On America's Debt Trap: Washington Is Running Out Of Time.
• Beijing To Convene Stock Market Rescue Meeting As Plunge Protection Goes Into Overdrive.
• NPR Reveals Democrat Scheme To Rig AIs Into Deceiving Voters.
• Flash Forward: Bernstein, Goldman Say "High-Bandwidth Flash" Could Crumble AI's Memory Wall... If Nvidia Ever Shows Up.
• Democrat Haley Stevens Flips, Endorses El-Sayed's Republican Opponent Two Days Before Michigan Senate Vote.     
• FBI Says North Korea Behind $6 Billion Binance Heist.
• Nasdaq 9% Off Its High, Euro Gas Through €100: Goldman's Last "Source Of Calm" Is Central Banks... "Good Luck".
• Oh, By The Way, Private Credit Defaults Just Hit A Record....
• Third Russian Refinery Attacked By Ukraine In 3 Days.
• Korybko: Tusk's Judicial Coup Amounts To An Attempted German Takeover Of Poland By Proxy.
• Iran's Araghchi Hopes For 'Rationality' From US Amid Signs Renewed War Could Erupt.
• Burnham And Healey's Budget Has Trapped Britain In A Doom-Loop.
• Polish MEP Alleges "Globalist Coup" Attempt On Court A Month After Slotkin Touts Poland "Playbook".
• Europeans Can't Even Die In Their Own Coffins? 
• First Doomsday Warnings, Then Poland Crisis, Iran's "No Limits" Threat, & Now "Mass Casualty" Risk In Moscow.
• $1.1 Trillion In Cloud Backlog Vs "Peak" Earnings Growth: Two Goldman Veterans Draw Opposite Conclusions From AI's Worst Week.
• Looting And Chaos Erupt In Germany As Europe Slides Deeper Into Crisis. 
• Binance Plugs 90% Of $6.3 Billion Hack Hole With Its Own Cash, Says Withdrawals Reopen Sunday.
• The Democrats' 'All Trick, No Treat' Strategy.
• Iran Issues Nov 1st Blanket Ban On South Korean Tanker Giant Moving One-Third Of Persian Gulf Oil Exports.  

• @CNBC 

• Binance sees $3.64 billion in net outflows as withdrawals resume after massive hack. 
• Stock futures tick higher ahead of busy week of earnings, jobs data and the midterm elections: Live updates.
• Everything changed for the oil, AI and bond trades over the past month.
• Iranian negotiators in Qatar to continue talks to end the U.S.-Iran war: Reuters.

• @MarioNawful

• Ironically, Netanyahu made it possible!! Israelis and Palestinians are marching TOGETHER in Tel Aviv demanding a Jewish-Arab government The demonstration comes days after Tuesday’s election left Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 seats, short of a majority, while the opposition and Arab parties hold the rest. Crowds are pressing for a coalition that includes both sides after the results blocked a straight return for the current government. (video)  

• @WallStreetApes 

• A gay white man is interviewed in Michigan and he says we don’t need any White men in the Senate. He says we need diversity, that’s why he’s voting for the Muslim Abdul El-Sayed. Who’s gonna tell him…. He says that Democrats are the party that makes gas affordable, groceries affordable and makes you be able to afford life. - The top 10 most expensive states in America are all Democrat, aside from Alaska. - The cost of groceries skyrocketed under Biden. - The cost of rent went up around 30%+ under Biden. But yeah, vote Democrat for a lower cost of living…. The brainwashing is insane. In fact, the cost of living went up roughly 3x the rate under Biden compared to Trump according to commutative price data. (video)

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: Ukraine has just struck Russia's Kstovo oil refinery, setting it ablaze with massive fires. Kstovo is Russia's 4th-largest refinery, processing 17 million tonnes of crude oil a year. It is the third Russian refinery struck in three days. (pics)

• @DD_Geopolitics

• Business Jet With Nine Aboard Crashes Into Florida Mobile Home Park, Multiple Dead. A Learjet 60 crashed into a mobile home park in Greenacres, Palm Beach County, shortly after 1 pm local time today. The FAA says nine people were aboard. Authorities report multiple deaths, but the exact toll is unknown, including whether anyone on the ground was killed. The jet left Austin, Texas, for North Eleuthera in the Bahamas. According to Flightradar24, it suddenly went into a steep dive, descending at more than 32,000 feet per minute. Audio circulating on social media is claimed to capture the jet's female pilot in the moments before the crash, reporting a descent of 10,000 feet per minute during a mayday call. She then allegedly says: "Look outside, Jack... Holy f*ck, we're out of time." The crash site is about 9 miles from Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, where US forces recently deployed Avenger air defense systems. There is no indication of any link between the two, and the cause is not yet known. (video) 

• @WarClandestine

• The Dems continue to be openly concerned about Trump stopping their election fraud schemes. They continue to claim Trump is going to use the federal government to steal the election. In reality, they have been caught committing election fraud, and are trying to avoid accountability.
• All evidence suggests that we are headed for some sort of showdown on Election Day. Trump and his administration are making it clear they are going to prosecute election/voter fraud this time around, and the Dems are making it clear they believe Trump is going to “steal the election” from them. Based on the behavior of both sides, it appears that Trump is not going to let the Dems cheat this time around. The Dems have been warning of Trump sending federal agents to polling sites, potentially seizing ballots or tabulators, and/or prosecuting election officials. Something is brewing. 

• @ElectionWiz

• Michigan Democratic Party Curtis Hertel has kicked Haley Stevens out of the Democratic Party after she endorsed Republican Mike Rogers for Senate.

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING UPDATE: James Talarico's OWN team just rushed to the New York Times to say their interna polling is either tied or margin of error with Ken Paxton. THERE'S THE HEDGE... "People close to his campaign" told NYT numbers may not fully capture the rural conservatives who back Trump. That's the exact voter bloc that buried Democrats' "blue Texas" hopes in 2018, 2020, and 2024! GO VOTE ON ELECTION DAY. SWAMP THEM. (video)

• @NH_India

• Thousands rally in Tel Aviv urging #Israel’s opposition to join Arab parties and form a govt to oust #Netanyahu. Election left his bloc with 53 seats and the opposition with 48 in the 120-member parliament, making Arab parties pivotal to coalition talks. (pic)

• @visegrad24

• BREAKING: The looting of stores has started in Frankfurt, Germany. Young first and second-generation migrants are attacking stores in the city. (video)

• @RadioGenoa  

• This is not just one country. This is Europe 2026: France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Germany, Albania. Everywhere the same chaos. Where are we going? (video)

• @CapitolLeaks1

• Barack Obama is now targeting Hungary and Poland because they’re rejecting open borders. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 37.5 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.55 USD/Metric Tonne +.86%.
• Crude Oil 101.26/bbl. -2.8%
• Gold 3,919.0 USD/t oz. +.52% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.06 -.19%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.26 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.7 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.94% +1.0 basis point. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.87% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.15 -3.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.
• S&P 500 futures +.42%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.80%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.