Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,405.6 -2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 50,875.5 -.2%

• NASDAQ 25,723.7 -4.3%

• Russell 2000 2,830.7 -3.1%

• NYSE FANG+ 17,080.4 -7.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 300.7 -8.4%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.64 -10.1%

• Wilshire 5000 73,042.5 -2.3%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,949.6 -3.8%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,325.6 -.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 934.3 +1.4%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 256.0 -2.8%
  

• NYSE Technology 9,356.1 -4.3%

• Transports 21,908.4 +2.4%

• Utilities 1,111.5 +.3%

• MSCI Europe Banks 119.43 -1.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 64.7 -5.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 263.0 +.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 134.3 -.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 618,080 +.1%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.9 +5.4%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 394 -863

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.8 +2.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 160,998 -6.7%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,003,795 +.04%

• Total Put/Call .90 +36.9%

• OEX Put/Call .44 +22.5%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms .88 -31.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 121.0 -.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.22 +12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.45 unch.

• Volatility(VIX) 19.6 +16.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.12 +136.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.4 +21.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.40 +4.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.0 +1.6%

• Smart Money Flow Index 21,344.9 +1.3%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  86.8 -11.6

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.894 Trillion +1.4%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.575 Million

• AAII % Bulls 36.3 +2.0%

• AAII % Bears 37.0 -11.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -11.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 384.0 -.2%

• Crude Oil 90.58/bbl. +2.6%

• Reformulated Gasoline 304.9 -.1%

• Natural Gas 3.22 -1.6%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 74.6 USD/Megawatt +.7% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.8 euros/megawatt-hour +6.0%
  

• Heating Oil 359.8 +1.4% 
• Newcastle Coal 147.0 (1,000/metric ton) +7.7%

• Gold 4,322.9 -4.8%
• Silver 68.15 -9.2%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 182.44 -1.8%

• Copper 626.5 -1.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 401.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 101.70 USD/Metric Tonne -2.7%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 27,250.0 USD/metric tonne -7.6%
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 61.99 +6.7%  

• CME Lumber 607.0 +3.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,344.7 -3.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 342.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 553.50 USD/Short Ton -4.0% 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.7 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7 -.6 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.23 +7.0%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 113.9 -47.0% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 84.0 -2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 90.0% -7.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 262.6 +17.9%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 +.5
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(495 of 500 reporting) +28.0% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 362.69 +n/a:  Growth Rate +23.3% +n/a percentage points, P/E 20.9 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% +n/a percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 896.84 +n/a: Growth Rate +72.9% +n/a percentage points, P/E 20.0 -n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.2 +18.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -49.3 +18.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.90 +4.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 3.8%(+3.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 96.2%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17

• US Dollar Index 100.05 +1.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,863.4 -.6%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 59,690.2 -17.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.73 -.5%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.53 -1.6%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 37.75 -5.0 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.54% +11.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.90% -3.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.664 Trillion +.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.325 Billion +5.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.4 +1.0%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 181.9 -1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 76.0 +5.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.1 -.3%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 40.7 +1.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.5 +4.0%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.6 -1.6%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.2 -1.4%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.0 +3.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 -.1%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.6 +.9%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.6% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.2% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.2% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.33% +2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +4.18% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.64 +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 -3.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 11.5 +5.5 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.25 unch.

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 52.0 +2.7% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.1 -1.4%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 152.0 +43.6%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 429.7 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 249.0 +24.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.2 +1.6%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 151.3 +.4%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 111.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 550.0 +7.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.7% +10.0 basis points

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,401.7B +.8%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,750 +3.1%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.62 -2.5%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.60% -1.0 basis point

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 252,800 -2.5%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.9% unch.
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% unch.
• Box Office Weekly Gross $267.1M +78.5%

• Nationwide Gas $4.22/gallon -.17/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 3,037.0 -5.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,432.9/40 ft Box +22.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,411.6 +3.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 210.0 -2.3%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 155.4 -4.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 264,449 -9.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,773,608 +20.2% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.6 +6.4 points
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value unch.

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth -3.9%

Leading Sectors

• Education +4.5%

• Insurance +4.3%
• Energy +3.7%

• Healthcare Providers +3.5%
  

• Road & Rail +3.5%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Software -5.0%

• AI Innovation -6.5%
  

• Airlines -8.0%

• Alt Energy -8.7%
  

• Gold & Silver -10.6%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (18)

• COO, GIII, ABM, COKE, ARCB, PODD, ARGX, KMB, KVUE, REZI, EG, TWFG, AGX, KO, HRTG, FRO and PPC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (46)

• ABVX, CEF, GFI, BSTZ, MLYS, AVGO, SCVL, PLAB, AEM, DOCU, PSLV, DMRA, DRUG, PKX, LULU, ASST, BLSH, DXYZ, VPG, RLAY, GWRE, AMBA, GRRR, BIDU, MSTR, ASX, INSM, NNE, HL, GENB, ADUR, HBM, GLXY, BTDR, NOK, UUUU, RDW, AMRC, OUST, QUIK, FCEL, CRNC, BRUN, TSAT, ALM and PL

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Substantially Lower into Afternoon on Fed Rate-Hike Worries, Crypto Plunge, Sector Rotation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,490 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -266 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -29 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my financial/industrial/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts, then covered some
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CPB)/.48

After the Close: 

• (MTN)/8.99
• (AVO)/.05 

Economic Releases 

11:00 am EST

• The NY Fed 1YR Inflation Expectations Index for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, the CB Employment Trends Index for May, Rosenblatt Tech Summit, Oppenheimer Consumer Growth/E-Commerce Conference, (CRWV) annual meeting, (MSTR) annual meeting, (INCY) annual meeting and the Mizuho Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• US President Donald Trump expressed confidence that Washington and New Delhi will strike a long-awaited trade agreement after negotiators wrapped up a fresh round of talks this week.
• South Korea’s $4.9 trillion stock market is starting to flash signs of strain after a world-beating rally. 
• Meta Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang said the company’s future artificial intelligence models will differentiate themselves from competitors through their consumer health capabilities.
• Global investors are rapidly losing confidence in Indonesia as the nation’s stocks tumble at the fastest pace worldwide and its currency sinks to all-time lows.
• The Trump administration announced a small modular nuclear reactor reached a critical milestone Thursday.
• Research analysts across Wall Street are telling would-be SpaceX IPO buyers that they’re modeling for the company’s AI division to see 100 times revenue growth at the end of the decade, to help justify a targeted $1.8 trillion valuation.
• As chipmakers suffered their worst day in more than two weeks, there were signs that some traders are betting the selloff will be short-lived. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• KOREA'S KOSPI EXTENDS DROP TO 6% AS CHIPMAKERS SLUMP.
• Trump Says Accountability Is Coming Over The 'Rigged' 2020 Election.
• Texas AG Launches Investigation Into Glyphosate In Food.
• Anthropic's Marketing FUD Playbook Returns With Call To Pause AI Frontier Development.
• Beer Demand Goes Flat As Even Alcoholics Pull Back With Gas Above $4.
• Rubio Says 'We Remember Their Lives And Honor Their Legacy' On Tiananmen Massacre's 37th Anniversary.
• Trump Softens Red Line: 'No Reason' To Retrieve Iran's Nuclear 'Dust' As It's Effectively 'Entombed'.
• *TRUMP ON IRAN WAR: WE'LL WIN MILITARILY OR ON PAPER.
• *TRUMP: WOULD BE HONORED TO MEET THE AYATOLLAH.
• The cities where the best housing deals are coming. (table)
• *TRUMP: WE'LL HANDLE CUBA AFTER WE TAKE CARE OF IRAN.
• *TRUMP: NO REASON TO GET IRAN NUCLEAR DUST, IT'S ENTOMBED. *TRUMP: NOT CONSIDERING COVERT OPERATION TO SEIZE IRAN URANIUM. *TRUMP: WE HAVE POWERFUL CAMERAS WATCHING IRAN'S URANIUM.
• *TRUMP: WOULD BE NICE IF LEBANON COULD HAVE PEACE. *TRUMP: SPOKE TO NETANYAHU, HEZBOLLAH ABOUT IT.
• Banks Bid, Semis Slammed Amid Momo Meltdown As Crude & Crypto Slide.            

• @CNBC

• Asia-Pacific markets set to open subdued after Wall Street's AI-linked stocks slide.
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• CrowdStrike CEO says AI security fears will become a bigger tailwind in coming quarters.
• S&P 500 futures tick lower as Wall Street awaits May jobs report: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Lululemon Athletica, ServiceTitan, Argan and more.

• @TheTranscript

• $AVGO CEO Hock explicitly says demand from Anthropic and OpenAI alone is far above what Broadcom expected six months ago: "We're talking about capacity as measured by gigawatt power that are way ahead of what we have expected, say, six months ago.". 
• Lululemon lowers FY26 guidance. CEO: "More recently, we have been navigating headwinds that have led us to adjust our outlook for the full year. We have assessed the business and are taking additional actions to reposition where needed..."
  $LULU: -11% AH.
• $CVX CEO: Venezuela represents one of Chevron's largest long-duration optionality opportunities. “What many people are surprised to learn is that Venezuela has more oil than any country on the planet, including Saudi Arabia.”  

• @WallStEngine

• U.S. officials have held preliminary talks about the government acquiring shares in major AI companies, per NOTUS. Sam Altman has discussed the idea with Trump administration officials, including a direct pitch to Trump in early 2025. The discussions have focused on companies voluntarily ceding shares to the government, not selling them. Returns could be used for public purposes, including a potential dividend to American households. Anthropic is reportedly not in talks with the administration on providing equity.
• S&P Dow Jones Indices will not change its eligibility rules to fast-track megacap IPOs into the S&P 500 or S&P MidCap 400. That means companies like SpaceX or Anthropic would still need to meet the existing requirements, including profitability, seasoning period, & minimum IWF. 
• $RBRK Q1’27 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Adj. EPS: $0.16 (Est. -$0.53). Subscription Revenue: $374.2M; +41% YoY. Total Revenue: $387.1M; +39% YoY. Subscription ARR: $1.57B; +32% YoY. FY Guide: Revenue: $1.638B-$1.648B (Est. $1.608B). Adj. EPS: $0.25-$0.35 (Est. $0.17). Subscription ARR: $1.854B-$1.862B. FCF: $293M-$303M. Q2 Guide: Revenue: $395M-$397M (Est. $382.8M) . Adj. EPS: $0.03-$0.05 (Est. $0.02). Non-GAAP Subscription ARR Contribution Margin: 11% to 12%. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 unch. 
• China Sovereign CDS 40.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.85 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
• Crude Oil 93.30/bbl. +.3% 
• Gold 4,479.60 USD/t oz. -.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.59 +.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.15 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.2 -.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.47% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.91% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 +1.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.5%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.9%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Financial/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -1.2%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.3 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.32 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.8 -1.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 148.6 -1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 54.6 +.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.8 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.6 -3.5

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.90 +1.3

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.5 +2.5
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +28.0% +.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 362.25 +.53:  Growth Rate +23.2% unch., P/E 20.9 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.47% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% -.8 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 894.01 +3.22: Growth Rate +72.4% n/a, P/E 20.1 -.5 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 +1.0 basis point
• US Yield Curve 42.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 187.1 -.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.9 euros/megawatt-hour +.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.4% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% -3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.71 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 88.5% (+1.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 72.5%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -141 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my biotech/financial sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 1000% Net Long