Friday, July 10, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 7,575.7 +1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 52,693.0 -.5%
  • NASDAQ 26,290.2 +1.8%
  • Russell 2000 2,979.7 -.5%
  • NYSE FANG+ 17,591.5 +2.7%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 325.8 -2.8%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.2 -.1%
  • Wilshire 5000 75,060.8 +.94%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,989.4 +2.2%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,427.0 -.2%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 930.9 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 262.8 +1.1%
  • NYSE Technology 9,734.2 +1.6%
  • Transports 22,186.7 +.7%
  • Utilities 1,145 -1.3%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 128.8 -1.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 66.7 +1.8%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 269.17 +.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 136.1 -.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 621,728 -.02%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +21.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 268 -344
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -13.4 +9.2%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 110,531 -3.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,914,443 +.1%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -32.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .17 -12.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%
  • NYSE Arms .94 +15.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.1 +3.3%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.59 +7.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.3 -5.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .70 -54.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 7.26 -11.4%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.08 -2.9%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.72 unch.
  • Smart Money Flow Index 18,410.9 +1.5%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  83.0 -1.7
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.953 Trillion +.1%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$5.828 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 36.3 +15.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 368.51 +4.4%
  • Crude Oil 71.6/bbl. +4.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 299.3 +2.3%
  • Natural Gas 2.95 -8.4%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 82.0 USD/Megawatt +3.0% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 48.4 euros/megawatt-hour +7.4%
  • Heating Oil 355.5 +11.5% 
  • Newcastle Coal 129.0 (1,000/metric ton) unch.
  • Gold 4,098.2 -1.8%
  • Silver 59.5 -4.5%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 173.2 +2.1%
  • Copper 627.7 +1.7%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 396.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.20 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 24,025.0 USD/metric tonne +1.5%
  • Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.64(price per million tokens) +1.1% 
  • inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 46.06 +2.7%  
  • CME Lumber 635.0 +1.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,460.9 +4.7%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.50 USD/Short Ton unch.
  • US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 386.5 USD/Short Ton +6.2% 
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.3% +.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.5 -.1 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.17 +24.3%
  • Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 169.1 +97.5% 
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 56.0 -7.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 72.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 310.0 +.3%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(17 of 500 reporting) +136.8% +n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 372.94 +n/a:  Growth Rate +26.7% +n/a, P/E 20.2 +n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.64% +unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 900.55 +n/a: Growth Rate +73.7% +n/a, P/E 19.5 +n/a
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 57.8 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.9 +10.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.0 -4.6 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 66.3%(-15.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 33.7%(+15.5 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 7/29
  • US Dollar Index 100.98 +.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,862.0 +.2%
  • Bitcoin/USD 63,753.2 +1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 211.05 +.09%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.39 +.7%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 35.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.57% +8.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.90% -15.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.689 Trillion unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.607 Billion -13.9%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.1 -2.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.7 +.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 74.0 -3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.0 +.9%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.6 -1.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.7 -1.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 55.4 -5.8%
  • Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.9 -2.9%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.2 -1.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.1 +.1%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.1 +1.2%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.3% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.9% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.5% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.92% -4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.31 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +3.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 26.75 +13.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.5 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.1 +1.3% 
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.4 +.2%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 109.0 -4.4%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 447.25 -3.0% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 201.0 +8.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.3 +1.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 139.9 -.5%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 109.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 555.0 +9.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .46 +1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.6% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,395.3B +2.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 218,750 -1.7%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.2 unch.
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.56% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 266.30 -2.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +10.10% +40.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +13.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $254.0M -23.8%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.88/gallon +.06/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,910.0 +7.1%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,638.6/40 ft Box +2.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,811.2 +5.9%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 210.0 +13.5%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 99.96 -26.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 269,430 -8.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,705,781 +43.74% 
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.6 -.8 point
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% +5.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Hardware +7.8%
  • Oil Service +4.2%
  • Energy +4.1%
  • Shipping +3.7%
  • Networking +3.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Pharma -3.5%
  • Gold & Silver -4.1%
  • Airlines -4.8%
  • Drone Tech -7.9%
  • Space -9.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (24)
  • FBRX, VOD, BNED, ALM, BBW, WHR, JXN, REZI, KB, GGAL, SEI, WPP, CAKE, MLTX, META, SE, CRCL, KOD, EPAC, CNMD, LEVI, MTN, SBAC and CCI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (11)
  • AZN, EXE, VOR, ALNY, SXT, MDA, BKD, TARS, FSUN, IONS, QFIN
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Oil, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +730 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -126 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +15 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (FAST)/.33
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 
 
2:00 pm EST
  • Federal Budget Balance report for June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking and the OPEC meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, July 09, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @TonySeruga
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @TheShadowIntelX
  • @BenSwann_
  • The Case Against Tyler Robinson Is Collapsing in Plain Sight! The Tyler Robinson hearing is an absolute joke, and the record so far makes that painfully clear. The state’s key evidence, a “surveillance compilation” edited by the Utah Attorney General’s office, was rejected for alterations, and there is still no raw, uncut footage of the assassination. The officer on scene couldn’t even recover the shell casing from Robinson’s alleged rifle, and the DNA on the towel is 95% linked to Lance Twiggs, not Tyler Robinson. To make matters worse, the officer’s bodycam was conveniently turned off at the most critical moments. As it stands today, the state has zero solid evidence actually tying Tyler Robinson to the assassination of Charlie Kirk. (video)
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @Chicago1Ray
  • @XVanFleet
  • @PolyMarketMoney
  • @Kalshi_Finance
  • @LibertyLockPod
  • For those that haven't followed this closely. CK was place in the vehicle in under a minute. The car ride was less than 10. Likely less than 5. So within 5 or 10 minutes Shapiro's security was getting real time updates from CK's security and that was relayed to Shapiro. When they should've been working tirelessly to save his life. Shapiro was not CK's friend. CK did not work for DW. While the rest of the world was just learning about a shot being fired somehow Shapiro has a direct line to the security team which just failed to secure their protectee? This is weird beyond belief and I hope everyone will set their bias aside and really think about how this was even possible. So disturbing. (video)
  • @Breaking911
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @JackUnheard
  • @DanielGilr44222
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +2.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 -.75 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%. 
  • Crude Oil 72.13/bbl. +.1% 
  • Gold 4,120.50 USD/t oz. -.5%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.43 +.12%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.69 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.6 +.05%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.54% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.94% -8.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.