Sunday, March 01, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (AAL), (NOC) and (LMT).
  • @MarioNawful
  • @LauraLoomer. 
  • @Breaking911
  • @bubblemaps
  • @GenFlynn
  • @TheSCIF
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @BRICSinfo
  • @RenzTom
  • @SteveRob
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @JoeLang51440671
  • @NickSortor
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @DataRepublican
  • @DigilentDenizen
  • EPSTEIN LEASED HOME FROM US GOVERNMENT PREVIOUSLY OWNED BY IRAN GOVERNMENT. During her deposition, Maxwell revealed child trafficker Jeffrey Epstein leased his NY building from the US government who had seized it from Iran's government. Epstein moved the CIA IRAN CONTRA operation to Southern Air Transport company from Florida to Leslie Wexner's Victoria Secret. Imagine that. (video)
  • @Trade_The_News
  • @The_Real_Fly
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • WOW. Minnesota's spending on Autism Care went from $1 million in 2017 to $343 million in 2024 under Tim Walz’s watch. That's a 34,200% increase. This level of fraud is unbelievable. (pic)
  • @BBMagaMom
  • @SprinterPress
  • @SoveyX
  • It Was Never About Iran or Venezuela: It’s About Weakening China, and It’s Brilliant. China’s economic ascent is tethered to a critical vulnerability: its reliance on foreign oil. Importing over 70% of its oil, China depends heavily on a few key suppliers. This reliance creates a strategic opportunity for the U.S. By influencing Iran and Venezuela, two of the world’s top holders of oil reserves, the U.S. can exert direct or indirect influence over their trade partnerships, thereby tightening China’s energy supply. Key Points:
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @_whitneywebb
  • Carbyne, the Israeli intelligence linked (and probable front) company that Epstein helped fund and guide along with Ehud Barak and Peter Thiel, now runs and controls the 911 emergency systems throughout numerous states and counties in the US. Their initial software descriptions revealed that they harvest tons of data from phones that call into those 911 call systems and store that information, previously touting they would use it for pre-crime-style functionality. You may be outraged about the Epstein files and the Epstein cover-up, but you should also be investigating how nothing practical is being done to dismantle what Epstein helped build. This foreign company should be nowhere near essential US services, but it continues to rack up local contracts.
  • @ginamilan_
  • @nogps1
  • @TheInsrPaper
  • @Stealx
  • @OunkaOnX
  • @nogps1
  • @RealGeoEngWatch
  • @DocAhmadMalik
  • @ShaykhSulaiman
  • @RoyalIntel_
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • Current situation at the Strait of Hormuz: 1. A vessel off the coast of Oman has been attacked. 2. At least 250 ships have dropped anchors across the Middle East Gulf and coasts of Oman/UAE. 3. War risk insurers have submitted cancellation notices for policies on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. 4. Maersk is now suspending all shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. 5. Brent oil prices are trading up +10% over the counter. 6. Regional leaders warn US that $100/barrel oil is a “clear and present danger”. Insurance costs in the Strait of Hormuz are skyrocketing. (pic)
  • BREAKING: Iran has attacked an oil tanker named “Skylight” near the Straight of Hormuz. Maersk is now suspending all shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. (video) 
  • @Clashreport
  • @shanaka86
  • @Real_JamesWoods
  • @BreandonSrtaka
  • @FurkanGozukara
  • @Ted_macie
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 +2.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 46.5 +3.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%.
  • Gold 5,366.5 USD/t oz. +2.3% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 +.22%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.11 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 96.9 -1.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 3.98% +4.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.34% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.7 +2.6%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.5%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.74%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.8%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by airline and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Friday, February 27, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,848.8 -.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 48,845.7 -1.7%
  • NASDAQ 22,603.7 -1.3%
  • Russell 2000 2,617.5 -1.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,353.3 -.6%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 249.4 -.8%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 30.3 -.4%
  • Wilshire 5000 67,800.1 -.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,511.6 -1.2%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,203.7 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 999.2 +2.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 246.1 -2.4%
  • NYSE Technology 7,021.1 -1.2%
  • Transports 19,689.8 -.7%
  • Utilities 1,187.5 +2.1%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 120.8 +1.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 62.2 -.13%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 255.5 +.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 133.6 +.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 611,347 +.6%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 +3.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 792 +599
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -17.5 -12.7%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 141,343 +20.0%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,087,493 +.8%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -7.8%
  • OEX Put/Call .32 -61.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 132.0 +25.5%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -25.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.1 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.57 +8.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.8 +9.6%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .67 -47.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 16.0 +11.0%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.4 -3.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.96 +.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,821.6 -.1%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  74.9 -8.0
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.797 Trillion +.1%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.418 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.2 -3.8%
  • AAII % Bears 39.8 +7.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 310.0 +.3%
  • Crude Oil 67.2/bbl. +.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 207.8 +3.9%
  • Natural Gas 2.86 -6.6%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 69.8 USD/Megawatt -.1% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.0 euros/megawatt-hour +1.3%
  • Heating Oil 267.1 +3.8% 
  • Newcastle Coal 116.5 (1,000/metric ton) -4.3%
  • Gold 5,245.4 +2.4%
  • Silver 93.0 +9.5%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 171.5 +1.5%
  • Copper 598.8 +2.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 376.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 21,275.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
  • CME Lumber 559.0 -3.1%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,299.7 +.7%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.0% -.1 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.9 +.1 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.65 -8.3%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 312.1 -25.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 +2.9
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +14.6% +2.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 321.61 +1.95:  Growth Rate +15.8% -2.9 percentage points, P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.76% +2.3 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +28.0% +8.9 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 512.03 +6.06: Growth Rate +24.6% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 28.2 -.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 31.9 +6.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -12.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.7 +6.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 5.9%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 94.1%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 3/18/26
  • US Dollar Index 97.6 -.1%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,887.4 +.8%
  • Bitcoin/USD 65,290 -3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.8 +1.0%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 +1.5%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 57.75 +.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.96% -12.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.35% +1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.566 Trillion unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.627 Billion -.7%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.84 +3.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 186.9 +4.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 63.0 +3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.75 -1.5%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.5 +4.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.8 +2.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.8 +16.7%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.5 +8.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 -.77%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.97 +.74%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.9% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.95% +11.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.41% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.84 +29.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -3.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread .75 -2.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 -2.0 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.5 +7.9%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.3 -4.4%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 109.0 +2.8%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 558.8 +8.7% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 263.0 +51.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.0 +8.4%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 134.1 +5.2%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 107.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 581.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .50 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.3% -30.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,406.7B +.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 220,250 +.34%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.3 -1.7%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.14% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 340,200 +.4%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.8% unch.
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +3.0% -12.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $166.9M +99.0%
  • Nationwide Gas $2.98/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,117.0 +3.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,898.5/40 ft Box -1.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,044.6 -1.1%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 115.0 +35.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 112.2 +6.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 280,588 -1.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,647,330 +15.9% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% -2.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -.3%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -2.2%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +7.5%
  • Shipping +3.8%
  • Utilities +2.1%
  • Foods +2.1%
  • Restaurants +1.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -4.3%
  • Airlines -4.9%
  • Computer Services -5.8%
  • Banks -6.3%
  • Regional Banks -7.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (52)
  • AAOI, ARLO, FIGS, BWIN, PRAA, PSKY, DELL, RLAY, XYZ, XRAY, EVTC, NFLX, NEXA, BLFS, ARX, PNTG, DV, BTSG, USAU, NATL, CNK, FWONK, TMDX, ADSK, CAI, GSAT, DEC, AES, STRA, NWN, CGEM, GLOB, UTI, BVN, LII, YOU, SKWD, ECPG, CRGY, CPNG, MEG, ILMN, PENN, ROKU, DRD, OPRA, GEO and LYV
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (69)
  • SARO, AMR, WDAY, FMNB, FDUS, NCDL, KNTK, TSLX, SAN, TDPG, BN, NPKI, VITL, RNST, MBC, CECO, C, WD, MGPI, FCN, OWL, MESO, FOXF, BMA, VNET, MC, AXP, GS, QURE, LNC, HTGC, ZION, KKR, NTRA, ROOT, SOFI, FOUR, KTOS, APO, UAL, JEF, WAL, INFQ, PACS, KEP, TPC, LASR, ODD, ZS, NBIS, SEDG, ESTC, BCO, ACA, AMPH, FLUT, DUOL, AMBA, CRI, PGNY, FIGR, WLDN, PAR, FLGT and RUN
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change