Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,679.2 -1.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 53,318.4 -1.0%

• NASDAQ 26,204.8 -2.1%

• Russell 2000 3,018.10 -1.8%

• NYSE FANG+ 18,368.6 -1.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 328.8 -.7%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 36.8 -.7%

• Wilshire 5000 76,112.3 -1.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,928.3 -2.3%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,527.3 -.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 939.2 -1.2%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 272.4 +.9%
  

• NYSE Technology 9,420.1 -2.6%

• Transports 21,511.6 -1.0%

• Utilities 1,075.7 -2.7%

• MSCI Europe Banks 135.9 -3.1%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 67.11 +.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 266.3 -1.3%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 137.0 +.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 625,627 -4%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 +32.1%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 117 -1,324

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.6 +14.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 99,196 -11.8%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,892,429 +.3%

• Total Put/Call .71 -14.6%

• OEX Put/Call 1.05 +120.0%

• ISE Sentiment 179.0 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms .67 -20.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 127.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.26 -10.0 basis point
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.42 +1.0 basis point

• Volatility(VIX) 15.3 +6.9%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .43 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 10.3 -7.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.41 +3.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.80 +.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 17,875.8 +.5%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  79.7 -4.3

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.928 Trillion +.01%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.097 Million

• AAII % Bulls 35.5 +2.3%

• AAII % Bears 39.9 +5.3%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) -7.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 403.4 +3.9%

• Crude Oil 86.9/bbl. +5.7%

• Reformulated Gasoline 333.7 +5.5%

• Natural Gas 2.77 +1.8%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 74.0 USD/Megawatt -7.0% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 66.4 euros/megawatt-hour +9.4%
  

• Heating Oil 448.0 +5.5% 
• Newcastle Coal 138.3 (1,000/metric ton) +1.8%

• Gold 4,621.5 +5.7%
• Silver 69.52 +7.6%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 179.9 +.2%

• Copper 658.4 -.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 394.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 22,150.0 USD/metric tonne +5.4%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index 1.08(price per million tokens) +5.2% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 50.43 +1.4%  

• CME Lumber 574.0 +.9%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,568.9 +3.7%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 340.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 390.0 USD/Short Ton +.4%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.0% n/a

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.4 -.1 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.56 -5.2%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 144.5 -9.0% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 66.0 -7.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 92.0% unch.

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 301.9 +78.7%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.1
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(467 of 500 reporting) +49.6% +n/a percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 391.09 +n/a:  Growth Rate +32.8% +n/a percentage points, P/E 19.6 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 951.3 +n/a: Growth Rate +83.4% +n/a percentage points, P/E 19.2 -n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.20 +11.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 87.9 +17.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.4 -2.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 59.4%(-7.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 40.6%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 9/16

• US Dollar Index 98.8 -.8%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,912.5 +.5%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 76,945 +22.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 212.8 +.8%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.39 +1.2%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 50.5 -1.0 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.74% +5.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.08% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.698 Trillion -.2%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.253 Billion +10.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.24 +.5%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 179.1 +.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 83.0 +5.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.7 +.5%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.3 -2.9%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 123.5 -.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.2 +2.7%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.9 +.3%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.9 -1.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.24 +.02%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 122.4 -.6%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.4% +10.0 basis points
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.4% +30.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% -10.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% -20.0 basis points
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.29% -2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.36% -6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +37.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +6.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 19.75 +1.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.75 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 -.25 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.9 +.4% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.3 -.9%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 148.0 -1.0%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 463.25 +.9% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 206.0 -5.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 54.0 +1.5%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 139.6 +1.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 113.0 +5.0.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 555.0 -6.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .45 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.5% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,441.2B +.9%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 204,000 +2.1%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 52.8 -2.9%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.73% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 247,700 -.4%

• Weekly Retail Sales +8.0% -30.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +15.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $296.7M -53.4%

• Nationwide Gas $4.11/gallon +.03/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,791.0 -2.5%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,526.2/40 ft Box +4.3%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,821.7 -1.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 255.0 +27.5%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 96.5 -5.3%

• Rail Freight Carloads 291,838 -1.2%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,595,226 +13.5% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.3 +2.8 points
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -.6%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.6%

Leading Sectors

• Gold & Silver +13.9%

• Biotech +7.2%
• Shipping +7.2%

• Pharma +6.1%
  

• Agriculture +4.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Space -6.2%

• Defense -6.2%
  

• Airlines -7.9%

• Lithography/Photonics -8.5%
  

• Computer Hardware -9.7%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (76)

• ELMT, ARCT, VOGX, ASST, SLS, HOOD, EZPW, UEC, VIRT, CVI, EI, TGTX, MP, FUTU, PSNL, UUUU, TEM, COIN, FIGR, EIKN, ERO, CNH, FCX, SCCO, MRNA, NTES, HMY, EGO, MSTR, BMNR, CAI, ALB, HTFL, TRLV, AMR, SBSW, HCA, ALM, BTDR, CCJ, RIVN, GFI, TSLA, AU, WPM, SQM, BWLP, MOS, BJ, HSHP, SSMR, PURR, IDR, KGC, SHIP, CRCL, EL, BEAM, AVAH, VCX, EQX, LB, ZIM, BNTX, DRD, BHP, TECK, CRSP, TGT, DLO, BVN, DE and ASMB

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (7)

• REAL, DAR, SA, BABA, OSIS, CIFR and HUT

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Financial/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -111 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -39 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -13 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NSSC)/.39
• (PDD)/18.45 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Jefferies Semi/IT Hardware/Communications Tech Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Canada’s tentative trade deal with the US appears to include a win-win — reviving the Keystone XL pipeline. Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says its inclusion is a “no brainer.” 
• A dronemaker backed by Trump’s sons struck a $22.3 million deal to sell counter-drone detection equipment to an energy company in the Persian Gulf, capitalizing on private firms’ push to protect themselves amid fallout from the Iran war. 
• The US slapped more sanctions on Cuba, hitting the construction ministry, state mining, tourism and trading companies, and officials that run the communist government’s global outreach efforts. 
• Samsung plans to announce Friday a new shareholder return package that could be worth as much as $79 billion, according to a person familiar with the matter. 
• The trajectory for US public finances continues to head in the wrong direction.
• Tech firms are trying to quell growing opposition to their AI plans.
• A key regional price benchmark for aluminum delivered to the US market tumbled after the Trump administration indicated it would lower tariffs on certain Canadian exports of aluminum.
• Abbott agreed to pay $670 million to settle some lawsuits alleging that it hid the risk that its infant formula for premature babies can cause a deadly bowel disease.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.     
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 

• @ZeroHedge

• Poll Shows Voters Reject US-Israel Military Integration.      
• According to the BofA Fund Managers Survey, Taiwan and Japan are seen as the two biggest beneficiaries of the next phase of the AI cycle. China is tied with the US at 18%. Korea is last.    
• Coking Coal Prices Surge 25%, Squeezing India's Steelmakers. 
• ADNOC Issues Ninth Spot Crude Tender Since June As UAE Boosts Oil Exports.
• The Dem 'Big Tent Party' Is Doomed.
• "Get Long And Buckle Up": Jeff Currie Says Commodity Bull Market Entering Next Leg. 
• US Government Warns: Hackers Attacking Vulnerable Water Systems With AI Help.
• NATO F-16s Blow Up Sea Drone That Threatened Romania's Largest Deep Gas Platform.
• "No Thanks!" Has A Price: Trump Guts Korea War Games, Courts Kim As The Seoul Alliance Buckles.
• Fake News 'Journalists' Love The Deep State.
• *US MONEY-MARKET FUND ASSETS RISE TO $7.93 TRILLION AT ICI. 
• Food Supply Alert: Ukraine Grain Exports Collapse As Black Sea Attacks Choke Global Shipments. 
• Stocks Tumble, Yields & Oil Jump, Gold & Bitcoin Surge After Bessent Intervention Fails.     

• @CNBC  

• CNBC Daily Open: Watching Iran's economy; a losing game for bonds. 
• Japan’s headline inflation rate hit its highest level this year, coming in at 1.9% for July as prices continued to climb due to energy prices. Core inflation — which strips out prices of fresh food but includes energy — was in line with expectations, coming in at 1.8%.   
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• While young workers are struggling in the broader job market, they’re thriving in a subset of AI jobs.
• Stock futures are little changed after a steep sell-off sparked by a move back higher in Treasury yields: Live updates.
• With less than three months until the midterm elections, opposition to AI data centers is becoming a bipartisan rallying cry in a growing number of states.
• The Trump administration’s plan to crush Iran’s economy will likely negate the need for major U.S. military operations against the Islamic republic, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday. “If we are doing the maximum economic pressure, then that means that likely there will not be a large-scale kinetic restart,” Bessent said in an exclusive interview with “Squawk on the Street.”
• How higher bond yields can prove a stumbling block for the stock market.

• @WallStEngine

• OpenAI is starting to close the gap with Anthropic among Ramp’s 70,000+ U.S. business customers. Anthropic: ~44% share. OpenAI: ~40%. Nearly 56% of Ramp businesses now pay for AI, up from just over 50% in March.
• More details on $AVGO's reported AI financing: The full package could reach nearly $100 billion, including $60B-$70B of senior secured debt plus roughly $30B of junior debt. Apollo and Blackstone are in talks to participate, with the debt potentially issued through a special-purpose vehicle. The financing would help Anthropic and other AI companies secure Broadcom chips and infrastructure, and could be rolled out in stages rather than all at once. 
• ROSS STORES $ROST Q2’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS. Revenue: $6.3B (Est. $6.15B) ; +13% YoY. EPS: $2.66; includes $0.60 benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds. Comparable Store Sales: +10% YoY. Net Income: $851M; +68% YoY. Raises FY26 Guide: EPS: $8.61-$8.77 (Est. $7.78). New Store Opening Plan: 115 locations. 
• NVIDIA $NVDA says it currently has no LPU sales in China and that The Information’s report on LPU sales is incorrect. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 -.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 35.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Crude Oil 86.76/bbl. -.1% 
• Gold 4,587.0 USD/t oz. +.34%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.41 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.44 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.4 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.70% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.06% +3.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.7 -.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by real estate and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.