Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -5.1% 2) Oil Service -4.1% 3) Computer Hardware -3.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SRRK, ORCL, HPQ, QDEL, AYA, BIP, BIPC, TS, DELL, DRD, GLUE, AMRC, HMY, GLUE, AMRC, BAC, BZ, EGO, CRDO, ENOV, BE, DSGN, CECO, BDC, DY, QRVO, CEG, VRT, AEHR, FPS, TLN, ETN, PBF, KGS, EROC, CAMT, GEV, OLED, LITE, HPE, SWKS, NVT, BRUN, COHR, CIMO, GLW, SWMR and HQ

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AIPO 2) EWT 3) XEL 4) DFTX 5) FPS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MU 2) GLW 3) BE 4) HTZ 5) CAT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLP 3) IYE 4) IYW 5) IYZ

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Cyber Security +6.5% 2) Software +5.4% 3) Computer Services +3.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ELMT, RPD, SAIL, S, ZS, CRWD, NTSK, PANW, RBRK, TYRA, TENB, OKTA, RBLX, IOT, COIN, NET, BLSH, BWIN, OCTV, GRDN, TTAN, CHWY, ASST, CHKP, CRCL, AVAV, SMMT, COCO, FSLY, RELX, SLS, SLDE, AVLN, OSPN, XE, WBTN, DSGX, PHVS, SEDG, VRNS, WFG, GENB, BBNX, M, CHYM, BTI, PODD, BNTX, HAWK and AEO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BBD 2) EL 3) PLAY 4) LSCC 5) CVE 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ELMT 2) PANW 3) OKTA 4) RUM 5) QLYS

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XBI 2) XLF 3) AGIX 4) XLC 5) KBE

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (TCOM)/5.94

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Sept. is estimated to fall to 15.0 versus 20.6 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, Piper Sandler Tech Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, (SWBI) annual meeting and the Jefferies Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.4 -2.9
• 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sectors Declining
• 45.8% of Issues Advancing, 51.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .75 -21.9%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$36.7M
  
• 46 New 52-Week Highs, 231 New Lows
• 50.4% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 45.0 -2.0

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 7.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31st 6.0% -4.0 percentage points
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 14.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 7.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US Invades Iran before 2027 17.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31st 36.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 132.6 +.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 65.0 -14.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 443.25 +9.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 269.2 -.5%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 145.6 -.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 31.0 (FEAR) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 9.4 -27.3%
• Vix 16.7% +5.7%
• Total Put/Call .79 -9.2%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• US Energy Secretary Chris Wright cautioned oil traders against expecting a breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz as Iran plans to pitch other Gulf countries on a deal for passage through the energy chokepoint. 
• Trump said he’d warned Ukrainian Zelenskyy to stop targeting oil refineries in Russia amid strikes that have shut down diesel refining and helped drive prices for the fuel to record levels. 
• A top Iranian official has been blocked from addressing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s general conference in Vienna after pressure from the Trump administration. 
• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says Democrats plan a caucus on Tuesday morning on action on artificial intelligence, according to a transcript of his interview with ABC’s This Week. 
• The loss of a fifth of liquefied natural gas supply due to the US-Iran war is blowing out costs for Asia’s developing markets, and forcing a rethink of the fuel’s long-term future in the region. 
• The US Environmental Protection Agency is expected to formally rescind carbon pollution standards for fossil fuel-fired power plants as soon as Monday, sources say.
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.    
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge

• 2026 "Unmatched" In Macro/Market Decoupling; Goldman's Top Quant Trader Says Americans Are "Under-Appreciating" Japan's Geopol Impact. 
• *SK HYNIX FALLS MORE THAN 5%, SAMSUNG DOWN 4% AFTER AI WARNINGS *SOUTH KOREA'S KOSPI INDEX FALLS 3.1% TO 6,692.61.   
• "Our HY AI datacenter custom basket now trades at a spread of 353bps – 88bps wide of not only its tights from June 22nd, but also the broader HY market. When looking at all 2025 and 2026 AI-centric issuance, the respective OAS of that cohort is even wider at 381bps" - Goldman. 
• Trump's Grid Battery Ban Leaves Developers Guessing. 
• Arab Spring 2.0? Fuel Riots Erupt In Syria As Instability Spreads Across Mideast.
• "Going Nowhere Fast": BTIG Warns New Lows Soaring Below Calm Index Surface.
• *ANTHROPIC WILL BE PROFITABLE FOR SECOND STRAIGHT QUARTER: FT.
• Shareholder Ownership Gives Way To Corporate Control.
• *DELL FAMILY OFFICE NEAR TAKE-PRIVATE DEAL FOR BALDWIN GROUP: FT.
• *BRENT GAINS 2.4% AFTER SAUDI PIPE SHUT, HORMUZ MEETING DELAYED.
• Johnson Says $5,000 Trump Payments Require Congress To Act.
• The Extremism - And Irrelevancy - Of The 'Democratic Socialists'.
• "The Politics Of Compute": Morgan Stanley Evaluates How Public Backlash Against Data Centers Would Hammer U.S. GDP.
• California Enacts New Child Safety Laws On Social Media And AI Chatbots.
• Resource Nationalism Hits Tungsten: US Locks Down Scrap, UK Funds Mine, Zimbabwe Bans Exports, Vietnam Weighs Curbs.
• "projects totalling an estimated ~$156 billion were cancelled or delayed in 2025, with another ~$130 billion affected in 1Q26. While not our base case, the risk that political opposition slows the AI infrastructure buildout is no longer negligible." - Morgan Stanley.
• Hormuz Deal Hits Snag: Monday's Gulf-Iran Shipping Talks "Postponed".
• The 'Smart' Money Cut, The Machines Did Not; Goldman Partner Sees 3 Market Headwinds & 4 Key Debates.
• The Fauci Diary Entry That Explains Why MAHA Must Exist.
• Trump Rejects AI "Pause" As Obama Urges Democrats To Regulate It.
• Anthropic's AI Warning To Weigh On Stocks As Contracts Traded On Hyperliquid Slide.
• Warsh Faces An "Incredibly Difficult Dilemma" This Week.
• If Dems Win The House: Data Centers, Nuclear, Venezuela Oil Deal Likely Targets.
• *ANTHROPIC HAS CHOSEN NASDAQ FOR IPO LISTING: BUSINESS INSIDER. *BUSINESS INSIDER CITES PERSON FAMILIAR WITH ANTHROPIC IPO PLANS. No delays here.
• Trump Admin Weighs Emergency Powers To Boost Refining As Diesel Tops $6.
• "I Ain't Playin'": Cognizant, Cloudera PERM Filings And H-1B Processing Suspended.
• Obama Urges Democrats to Move A.I. Oversight to the Center of Their Agenda.
• Yemen Blame Game Begins: "Saudi-American F**k Up Of Epic Proportions".
• 'Regulatory Capture Or Psy-Op': Top White House AI Advisor Slams 'Pace The Frontier' Push.
• Attack Drone Hits Warsaw-Bound Passenger Train Near Polish Border, Raising NATO Spillover Risk.
• Anthropic Bans Israeli Account Over Iran, Gulf Social Media Citizen Profiling.
• "Something's Going To Happen": DHS Chief Says Lefty Ilhan Omar "Married Her Brother", Floats Deportation.
• How Romania Came To Host A Post-9/11 CIA Black Site & Got US Cash Bonanza.
• Florida's Attorney General Sues Netflix For Allegedly Harvesting, Selling Children's Data.
• US Limits Its Air Defense Coverage For Tankers Sailing Through Hormuz: Report.    
• Hartnett: All Eyes On This Indicator, Whose Breakdown Will Confirm A Fall Stagflation Event.                            

• @CNBC  

• Stock futures drop as investors weigh AI safety concerns, oil gains: Live updates.
• Oil prices rise after Saudi Arabia shut down critical pipeline that bypasses Strait of Hormuz.
• Anthropic's Amodei says China presents 'toughest dilemma' for his proposed AI slowdown.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to -.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 +.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 34.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%. 
• Crude Oil 103.25/bbl. +3.2%. 
• Gold 4,376.5 USD/t oz. -.73%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.21 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.19 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 132.6 +.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.96% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.08% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +2.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.35%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.5%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.3%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by transportation and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Today's Headlines

Around X:

• @Zerohedge 

• "Riyadh In Difficult Position": Saudis Shutter Critical East-West Pipeline After Drone Attacks. 
• Left-Wing Media Doxxes And Attacks Black "Rogue" Lindsay Clancy Juror. 
• No Secretary Bessent, We Aren't Magically Growing Our Way Out Of Debt. 
• Bahrain’s Foreign Ministry says the country will not be taking part in the proposed ministerial meeting to discuss the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and will not take part in any meeting in which Iran is a party until diplomatic relations have been restored between the two countries, state-run BNA reports. 
• Tylenol Use In Pregnancy May Reduce Daughters' Fertility, Study Finds. 
• Report Sounds Alarm Over Return Of Iranian Mass Ballistic Missile Production. 
• 9/11, Anwar Al-Awlaki, And Our Unanswered Questions. 
• Goldman throws in towel on no rate hikes: "We now expect a 25bp hike at the September FOMC meeting next week (vs. a hold previously). Additional hikes at later meetings are possible but are not our baseline. While today’s CPI report only raised our August core PCE forecast slightly to 0.26% and has not changed our fundamental inflation view, we think that the FOMC will want to avoid the market reaction that would likely follow from remaining on hold when the market is pricing a nearly 90% chance of a hike." 
• *NVIDIA IN TALKS TO INVEST UP TO $10B IN ANTHROPIC IPO: REUTERS. 
• PLA Purge May Be Driving China To Rely More On Military Pressure Against Taiwan: Analysts. 
• Appeals Court Won't Allow Trump Admin To Implement New Rules For Mail-In Voting. 
• "Stud Or Dud" Dating App Launches A Platform For Background Checking Prospective Matches.
• ICE Hits Legal Wall On Two Fronts As Denver Targets Polling-Place Enforcement And Appeals Court Curbs Detention Power.
• Lock And [Re-]Loaded: Third Circuit Greenlights Major Challenge To New Jersey Gun Liability Law.
• Trump: If I Had To Do Iran Again I Would Do Exactly As I Did.
• Navy Evaluating Future At Key Middle East Base Following Iran War Damage: Acting Secretary.
• Bombshell Leaks Seek To Distance 'Skeptical' JD Vance From Iran War.
• Trump Lays Out Republicans' Post-Midterms Agenda At Dallas Convention.
• AOC Caught In Race-Baiting Lie About Black Lynchings.
• UAE Moves To 'War-Proof' Data Centers After Iranian Retaliatory Strikes.
• and.... no gamma squeeze for you just blow up number two. *JPMORGAN CUT OFF LENDING ACTIVITY FOR SITUATIONAL AWARENESS: FT. Someone call Ken.
• Leopold Is Back: Situational Awareness Rerunning Exact Same Trades Which Blew It Up A Month Ago.
• *CITRINI RESEARCH FOUNDER VAN GEELEN SELLS FIRM TO SEMIANALYSIS.
• Oprah Audience Calls For 'Same Passion' For Black Child-Killers As For Lindsay Clancy.
• "Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda": Hillary Clinton Gives Flippant Answer When Pressed On Patriot Act Support.
• Is An Elite 'Clash Of The Titans' Looming?
• 2 days ago.... and now we know who the "buyer" was.
• US 2026 Budget Deficit Hits $1.97 Trillion With One Month Left; Interest At Record $1.4 Trillion. 
• Astra, Ayatollahs, & Accelerating Inflation: The Week When Oil Rewrote Warsh's Playbook.  

• @BarronsOnline

• Had bullish commentary on (WMT) and (BATRA).

• @IGSquawk 

• Weekend markets update: #NASDAQ 29357 -0.04% #DOW 52554 +0.03% #DAX 25580 +0.06% #FTSE 10668 +0.02% #EURUSD 11598 0.01% #GOLD 4352 +0.07% #SILVER 6449 +0.06% #USOIL 9625 -0.86%.
• Crypto update: #Bitcoin 77347.00 +0.05% #Ether 2535.30 +0.17% #BitcoinCash 231.54 +1.14% #Solana 102.0200 -0.43% #Litecoin 54.18 +1.12% #Stellar 0.1809 +1.34% #Dogecoin 0.0848 +0.47% #Uniswap 6.3685 +5.11% #Chainlink 11.5610 -0.17% #Polkadot 1.0433 -0.27% #Avalanche 7.4500 -0.13%.

• @MarioNawfal

• Europe wants the Epstein files. The DOJ isn’t answering. European investigators pursuing potential crimes connected to Jeffrey Epstein say the U.S. Justice Department has failed to respond to formal requests for evidence and unredacted records. Poland, Norway and Latvia say requests for U.S. legal assistance remain unanswered. British authorities have reportedly faced the same problem while investigating allegations connected to former ambassador Peter Mandelson. The Epstein files were released to expose what happened. European prosecutors would now quite like to investigate what happened.

• @MJTruthUltra

• I told you something was up with this… Not even 48 hours ago, a totally unknown AI Researcher named Jacob Coxon’s post told the world that AI was going to kill them All, and it has now gained 148 Million views on X alone This person created his account in Jan this year, and never tweeted anything until this tweet. It does not make sense… until you see who is pushing it non stop. @elonmusk JB Pritzker, Bernie, Sanders, Ted Lieu, New York Times writers, CNN writers, and many many other politicians, ALL, in lockstep….
• Ladies… I’m listening to this thing Oprah hosted and it is absolutely scary insane to me— the common theme they’re trying to push is that hormones and sleep deprecation is a justifiable reason for women to murder their children. Most of you have had kids. Did you ever once think about murdering them because you were tired? (video) 
• Tower 7. Most Americans still don’t know that 3 buildings collapsed that day. Why? Mockingbird Media. What purpose? Don’t know… but let’s start with who the tenants of this building Tower 7 Tenants: • Clandestine CIA station • Department of Defense • Secret Service • IRS • American Express • Securities and Exchange Commission • NYC Office of Emergency Management • Salomon Brothers, an American multinational investment bank • Quite a few Banks & financial groups. • Floors 14-17 were “Unknown” Lots of powerful entities in that building, with lots of banks & financial groups— could any of this have anything to do with the “missing” $2.3 trillion dollars?
  

• @Holden_Culotta

• Aaron Rodgers: “Every conspiracy that we were getting ridiculed for, it’s all been proven true.” “Politics is a total sham.” “The government’s a uniparty.” “They don’t give a fuck about regular people.” “If voting actually mattered, they wouldn’t let you do it.” “Trump gets into office running on all these policies.” “He’s going to go after the swamp.” “And go into Fort Knox.” “And cut the vaccine stuff.” “And not go into foreign wars.” “And end the Ukraine stuff.” “And transparency in the Epstein files.” “And what’s actually happened?” “Absolutely nothing.”... (video)  

• @HealthRanger

• I interviewed Zach Vorhies (the "Google whistleblower") today, and he and I both agree 100% that the Anthropic ex-employee scare story is a total psyop. It's all designed to spur government regulation and the outlawing of open source AI models under the claimed justification of "safety." We are all being played by Anthropic working in conspiracy with the federal government to cut us off from decentralized AI that the government cannot censor, surveil or control.

• @ClayTravis

• Australia’s first ever NFL game began with a land acknowledgment. This is insane. Australia also has a national sorry day where the country apologizes to the aborigines every year. If you think the US can’t get crazier, it can. (video)

• @DeepLeaksHQ

• BREAKING. ABC News whistleblower swears under penalty of perjury that the Kamala Harris campaign dictated the terms of the questions during the presidential debate. Furthermore, the Harris campaign insisted upon live "fact checking" of Donald Trump during the debate. ABC News "fact checked" Trump at least five times and did not fact check Harris once, despite the Democratic candidate telling provable lies, such as the "fine people hoax" and the blo*dbath hoax." The whistleblower signed the affidavit in New York and has sent a copy to Speaker Mike Johnson, the notarized document states. The unnamed individual states that he or she is in possession of secret recordings that will prove that ABC News rigged the presidential debate. ABC News committed election interference. This is a MASSIVE scandal.

• @AwakenedOutlaw

• This is video footage taken outside the Pentagon on Sept 11th, 2001, after a plane (we're told) crashed into the building. Okay, so where is the debris from said plane? (video)

• @BasilTheGreat

• NEWS: The UK Government has announced that all UK Phones will require ID and surveillance software. Your smart devices will be LOCKED unless you comply with the compulsory digital safety checks. The claim is this is for the safety of Children. We all know this is a lie.

• @RabbiJeffx

• A few days after 9/11, someone in the Epstein files asked Ghislaine Maxwell: “Where is the real pilot?” Never forget it. (pic)

• @Polymarket

• JUST IN: Treasury Sec. Bessent warns “nothing else would matter” if China wins the AI race, saying even America’s massive defense budget would not be enough.

• @LaraLogan

• Imagine believing they can’t rig an election. C’mon! Those people who still claim or believe our elections are secure are not serious about this country or our rights and freedoms. As long as we have computers in our voting stations, many of which are made in China where all sorts of spyware or modems or secret parts can be added, we will not have completely secure elections. Foreign enemies like the Chinese are being given cover by America’s domestic enemies. Shame on every journalist that has not done the work, has disregarded the truth and is still carrying water for propagandists, marxists, political operatives & the global elite directing it all.

• @ImBreckWorsham

• The fact that no one ever speaks about this being an actual painting found hanging in Jeffrey Epstein's home is disturbing. Imagine owning a art piece of W. playing paper airplanes over fallen Jenga blocks in the Oval Office just to flex psychological leverage on your guests. The elite power-decor meta was entirely out of control. (pic)
• Nothing says total governmental transparency like a 9/11 shadow commission found inside the Epstein Files. (pic) 

• @slk55again

• “SCANDAL OF THE CENTURY! Alice Weidel exposes Zelensky's hidden offshore accounts and demands the immediate blocking of billions! The century's biggest blow to German taxpayers has just triggered an unprecedented political war! The rivers of billions sent to Ukraine are now at the heart of an absolute earthquake threatening to blow up all of Europe.

• @MattWalshblog

• We’ve never seen anything like this before. A man was conscripted into jury duty by the government. He performed his civic duty and followed his conscience, refusing to acquit a woman who confessed to systematically executing her three children. The defense attorney immediately launched a public smear campaign against the juror. Soon several other jurors joined the campaign. Then the media. Even the defense attorney’s wife has joined. Now they’re doxxing the man, digging into his past, contacting his family, showing up at his house. All of this both to punish him for refusing to go with their program, and to pollute any future jury pool by making it clear that anyone who votes to convict Clancy will have their life destroyed. It’s truly one of the most outrageously evil things we’ve ever seen from the Left, and that’s saying something. A direct assault on the integrity of our justice system. They are burning down every boundary and standard in their path. And doing it all for the sake of a child murdering psychopath. Unfathomable.

• @ChezCharde

• Lindsay Clancy actually killed her 3 kids. A Black juror didn't kill anyone. Guess which one White Liberals have demonized more? This is what blatant racism looks like when it wears a liberal mask.

• @pequityresearch

• Here are some of the important takeaways from Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2026 and Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference this week:.

OpenVAERS:  

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,033,983 Reports (+264 from prior report) Through July 31th, 2026.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.