Wednesday, August 19, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +2.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.75 -.75 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.5 -.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.03%. 
  • Crude Oil 86.10/bbl. +.3% 
  • Gold 4,556.0 USD/t oz. +.24%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.41 +.35%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.46 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.9 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.63% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0% -12.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.5 -.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.53%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and pharma shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Treasury's US Debt Buyback Announcement, Rising Pharma Breakthrough Hopes, Canadian Tariff Deal Optimism, Biotech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.9 -1.6%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.8 +.9% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.12 +6.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 139.1 -1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 52.5 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.1 +1.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.3 -.1
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 78.7 -1.2
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.9 -.8
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(463 of 500 reporting) +50.0% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 390.17 +.19:  Growth Rate +32.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.26% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 949.05 +1.22: Growth Rate +83.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.4 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 -10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 47.0 basis points (2s/10s) -4.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 177.9 +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 63.6 euros/megawatt-hour -.1%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.1% +.6 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.0% -.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.65% -5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.81 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 54.0% (+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +630 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -17 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +25 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Lithography/Photonics -4.1% 2) Computer Hardware -4.1% 3) Space -2.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TJX, VCX, BMO, CBRS, IX, MUFG, MRCY, ZIM, FTK, CCXI, BRUN, ZTO, KEYS, OPRA, NUE, DUOT, CENX, NBIS, LZB and WYFI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MRNA 2) SOC 3) TJX 4) LOW 5) ASX
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) LZB 2) COSM 3) RXT 4) PLAB 5) AVGO
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLF 3) KRE 4) XRT 5) XLC

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +1.0%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +6.9% 2) Biotech +5.3% 3) Pharma +3.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MRNA, TEM, BNTX, SCTX, TWST, EL, VOGX, DRD, KC, PSNL, ASST, MRK, PSNL, CADL, BLSH, RNAC, CDE, HL, FDMT, AMR, HYMC, PPC, EXK, BMNR, ARIS, MTA, BMNR, CRSP, FSM, COIN, AG, AEM, CRCL, AMLX, GOLD, WPM, CWK, KGC, SSRM, AGRO, SBSW, AUGO, CAI, EQX, CELH, JKHY, MRVL, UPST, HONA, IMNM, SRPT, OGC, GENB, SVM, MELI, AGI, OR, HTHT, BEAM, AYA, MUX, WFG, ABCL, XNCR, SVV, PAAS, IAG, DUOL, NOMD, RGEN, EGO, TOL, ATAT, AEBI, B, GLXY, CGAU, BTU, FIGR, LLY, ALMR, APA, ZLAB, PFE, CHA, BROS, FLNG, NVS, CHYM, MNSO, CEF, ETOR, GRAL, LEN, FBIN, DLO, GRBK and HAE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ASTL 2) UTHR 3) NVAX 4) WYFI 5) TEM 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MRNA 2) MRVI 3) TEM 4) TWST 5) BNTX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) GRID 3) IXN 4) XLV 5) VGT
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AAP)/.81
  • (BABA)/10.14
  • (FPS)/.24
  • (NTES)/15.56
  • (SCSC)/1.14
  • (WMT)/.74 
  • (DE)/4.69
  • (WOOF)/.07
  • (SHOE)/.34 
After the Close: 
  • (FLO)/.22
  • (OSIS)/3.77
  • (ROST)/1.95 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Philly Fed Business Outlook for Aug. is estimated to fall to 25.0 versus 41.4 in July.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 210K versus 209K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1788K versus 1777K prior. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Leading Index for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (ELF) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.9 +.3
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 68.0% of Issues Advancing, 29.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .82 -2.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$363.2M
  • 79 New 52-Week Highs, 40 New Lows
  • 62.0% (+3.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.5 +2.2
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 9.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30th 6.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 3.0% unch.
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30th 2.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0% unch.
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30th 33.0% +1.0 percentage point
Other
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 127.0 -2.0%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 54.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 466.5 -9.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 270.2 +.5%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 147.6 -.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 59.0 (Moved to GREED from NEUTRAL) +4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 7.8 -22.9%
  • Vix 15.1% -4.8%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -21.7%