Monday, April 06, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @OwenShroyer1776
  • @BRICSinfo
  • @Breaking911
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • BREAKING: Iran has delivered its highly anticipated "10-point" response to the US' "15-point peace plan." Iran's 10-point plan includes: 1. Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again 2. Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire 3. End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon 4. Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran 5. End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies 6. In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz 7. Iran would impose a Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship 8. Iran would split these fees with Oman 9. Iran to provide rules for safe passage through Hormuz 10. Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations. President Trump's "deadline" for a peace deal with Iran is 25 hours away.. 
  • @HormuzLetter
  • @LaurenLee
  • @pati_marins64
  • @sayerjigmi
  • @jackunheard
  • @Melgibsonacts
  • @DawnsMission
  • @JustJenRX
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%. 
  • Crude Oil 115.10/bbl. +2.5% 
  • Gold 4,655.3 USD/t oz. -.63%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.60 +.13%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.40 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 105.1 +.4%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.35% +2.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.79% +3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.7 +1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.57%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.77%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War Ceasefire Hopes, Bargain-Hunting, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Defense Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.4 -2.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.9 +1.5% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .34 -3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.4 +.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.6 -.6%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 78.7 -.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.0 -1.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.7 +1.7
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -10.0 -4.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.3 -2.4 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +85.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.81 +1.01:  Growth Rate +21.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.07% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 797.88 +3.48: Growth Rate +100.5% +.8 percentage point, P/E 17.8 unch. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.7 +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.0 euros/megawatt-hour unch. 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5% -1.3 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.6% -.3 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.33 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.5% (+3.2 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 97.5%(+7.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +490 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +7 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +n/a open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Video Gaming -1.2% 2) Pharma -1.0% 3) Computer Services -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • SPIR, TSLA, AESI, TSEM, LUNR, GSAT, LGN, IVZ, LITE, AVTX, BWAY, FIGS, GBX, VOR, AXTI and VRDN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SLNO 2) SIRI 3) WIX 4) SPCE 5) NUAI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VRDN 2) GOSS 3) EOSE 4) NUAI 5) PSIX
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLP 3) SOXX 4) XBI 5) OIH

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +2.3% 2) Digital Health +1.4% 3) Restaurants +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SLNO, FUBO, AEHR, PRGS, BW, ALM, MDA, BETA, DSGN, BOOT, AAOI, AMLX, STX, DIOD, FLY, KALV, CGEM, CHA, VRSN, JBIO, ANIP, EH, MU, CAR, MRX, STM, ORKA, KRUS, MU, NRIX, PAGS, TVTX, LOCO, IMCR, AUPH and ARVN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) SLNO 2) FEZ 3) SPCE 4) EA 5) WIX 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SLNO 2) AMC 3) MVNC 4) SPCE 5) RICK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IYT 2) IGV 3) SMH 4) XLK 5) FDN
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (GBX)/.82
  • (LEVI)/.37
  • (PXED)/.34 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Durable Goods Orders for Feb. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus unch. in Jan.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Jan.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Feb. is estimated to rise +.5%. 

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit for Feb. is estimated to rise to $10.5B versus $8.05B in Jan

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 3Y T-Note auction, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for April, NY Fed 1Y Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, EIA short-term energy outlook, API weekly crude oil stock report and the Wells Fargo Software Symposium could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -32.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +1.8
  • 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
  • 56.5% of Issues Advancing, 40.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.03 +2.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$122.6M
  • 36 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 48.5% (+.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 48.6 +3.6
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 89.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 57.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran ceasefire by April 30th 28% +4.0 percentage points 
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th 33.0% -19.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 104.7 +.6%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% -3.0 percentage points
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 513.25 -20.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.34 +.13%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 135.2 +.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 21.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.4 -44.1%
  • Vix 24.1 +1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .89 -14.4%