Stocks Plunging into Final Hour on "Blue Wave" Policy Ramification Second Thoughts, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Slowdown Fears, Forced Selling Rumors, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.9 +5.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.75 -2.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -7.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.1 -.1% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 165.9 +3.8% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.8 +3.7% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.0 +.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 61.7 +2.1

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -1.6 -2.9

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 40.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(419 of 500 reporting) +27.8% -.8 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 415.20 +.22:  Growth Rate +26.6% unch., P/E 17.9 -.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,102.95 +.59: Growth Rate +64.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.3 -.9
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .95 +21.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 35.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.6 -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 90.0 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.1% -.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.83% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -7.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 63.2% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 47.8%(+11.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -2,970 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -261 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -48 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/consumer discretionary/energy/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -6.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) AI/Innovation -11.6% 2) Space -10.2% 3) Alt Energy -7.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BLLN, TH, GOOD, FUTU, CCJ, MGRC, WES, DDOG, PYTM, BWXT, TDY, BRCB, WBI, VST, MP, RYTM, ETN, MPWR, IBKR, ENTG, PAYC, FCX, TXN, VECO, ASML, MOD, ECG, YPF, GEV, ZGN, CNR, RVMD, TSEM, CAVA, AMSC, EME, GFS, MWH, CVSA, QCOM, URGN, SANM, ECHO, TSM, GDS, PSIX, RDVT, CGNX, AXON, CORZ, LB, STM, Z, MCHP, LMND, SEI, TSLA, SKHY, SITM, TER, FOUR, ARM, CLS, CRWV, LSPD, PWR, GLW, CMCO, COHR, NVT, MELI, FLEX, NGVT, SIMO, STRL, ACMR, EXPE, DOCN, ROK, CYTK, WMS, MRVL, BRVE, POWL, VRT, CIEN, IESC, ASTS, TTMI, PNTG, UMC, AMD, MU, NBIS, TTAM, APLD, PBH, KELYA, IREN, BE, LOPE, SHOO, STRA, POWI, FPS, ROOT, ASX, MTSI, MBUU, COHU, AAOI, SNDK, CSV, GIL, CPS, MXL, LGN, ARQT, BROS, ROAD, DAVE, RELY, ROCK, FSLY and VCYT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLV 2) LAES 3) KKR 4) VXX 5) EWT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) AMD 3) TSLA 4) URGN 5) STVN

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) IXN 5) MISL

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Video Gaming +1.5% 2) Gold & Silver +.3% 3) Foods -.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AEHL, ADMA, APP, WRBY, XERS, ECPG, TBI, MGNI, EPAM, ARDT, LYNX, SEZL, ONT, U, ENOV, PGNY, DLX, AGL, VCEL, TM, VERX, NVRI, GCT, CF, EWTX, IPAR, CPAY, VYX, ACHC, QNST, RYN, OGC, COLL, ALGT, TPR, SONY, APPN, HMN, SPHR, CARS, AAUC, LOAR, TREE, BSY, COKE, VNT, EE, MNSO, MSI, RGLD, PRMB, CDRE, WD, BKSY, ECVT, PLMR, COLD, NTES, PRKS, ASIX, VRSK, RPD, CAH, MUR, PRVA, EGO, CHRD, HURN, HELE, MOS and VSEC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MIR 2) ANNX 3) ENOV 4) PTON 5) URA 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) ADMA 3) LYNX 4) SEZL 5) PGNY

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLY 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) IYC

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (AMR)/-.64
• (BLMN)/-.24
• (CLMT)/1.63
• (CHTR)/8.90
• (DK)/8.05
• (ELAN)/.20
• (FLR)/.80
• (BEN)/.77
• (HUM)/-1.00
• (MRNA)/-1.10
• (OKLO)/-.27
• (PPL)/.53
• (WULF)/-.18
• (UAA)/-.01 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for Oct. is estimated to rise to 65K versus 29K in Sept. 
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in Sept.
• The Unemployment Rate for Oct. is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in Sept. 

10:00 am EST

• The Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index for Nov. is estimated at 48.0 versus 48.0 in Oct.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index  for Nov. is estimated at 4.7% versus 4.7% in Oct.

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for Sept. is estimated to rise to $13.8B versus $8.281B in Oct. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Musalem speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking and the (QGEN) shareholders meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +74.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.7 +2.0
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 16.3% of Issues Advancing, 82.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.25 unch.
• Non-Block Money Flow +$93.2M
  
• 145 New 52-Week Highs, 168 New Lows
• 42.4% (-11.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.5 -13.1

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 6.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 4.0% -3.0 percentage pionts
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 3.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 13.0% -5.0 percentage points
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 26.0% -5.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 118.0 -4.8%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 85.0 -6.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 45.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 482.0 +24.0 basis points
• France Sovereign CDS 90.3 -1.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 257.0 -1.7%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 132.0 -3.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 23.0 (Moved to EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -5.0
• 1-Day Vix 23.0 +90.0%
• Vix 22.9 +38.0%
• Total Put/Call 1.02 +61.9%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.25% to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 -3.75 basis points.   
• China Sovereign CDS 35.25 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.15 USD/Metric Tonne +.33%. 
• Crude Oil 87.39/bbl. -.83%. 
• Gold 4,121.90 USD/t oz. +1.15%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.19 -.21%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.32 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 123.1 -.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.84% -4.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.89% -5.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.2 +1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.2%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -1.0%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and energy shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.