Saturday, August 17, 2019

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:     
  • Had bullish commentary on (CVX), (XOM), (EOG), (SU) and (AEO).
  • Had bearish commentary on (VIAB) and (SMH).
Zero Hedge:

Friday, August 16, 2019

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 2,886.74 -1.06%
 
























The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.
 
Indices
  • DJIA 25,825.94 -1.67%
  • NASDAQ 7,891.34 -.79%
  • Russell 2000 1,493.31 -1.27%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 39.72 -2.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 140.12 -2.04%
  • Wilshire 5000 29,606.43 -1.16%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 1,584.41 -.78%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,209.74 -1.48%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 617.78 +1.38%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,095.26 -1.13%
  • NYSE Technology 1,897.71 +.12%
  • Transports 9,969.38 -2.33%
  • Utilities 830.43 +.44%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 64.81 -1.68%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 39.81 -.52%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,225.36 -.08%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 947.75 +.02%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 361,566 -.96%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -749 -732
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 -51.9%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 375,641 -3.01%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,070,210 +.06%
  • Total Put/Call 1.1 +22.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.16 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 94.0 -23.9%
  • NYSE Arms .49 -71.2%
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.92 +3.06%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.16 +11.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.87 +3.72%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.77 +5.97%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,882.59 -3.54%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.354 Trillion +.54%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$19.586 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 23.2 +7.0%
  • AAII % Bears 44.9 -7.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 170.19 -1.01%
  • Crude Oil 54.72 +1.22%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 165.57 -.34%
  • Natural Gas 2.19 +2.40%
  • Heating Oil 181.43 +1.25%
  • Gold 1,518.50 +.79%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 172.52 -.01%
  • Copper 259.30 -.13%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 286.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.85 USD/Metric Tonne -3.34%
  • Lumber 358.90 +2.90%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 839.38 -3.38%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.23% +28.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate -.5% -60.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 35.0% +2.5%
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.2539 +4.94%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 159.46 +30.30%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 175.20 -.03%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.60 +13.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.60 -9.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.30 -3.0 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of rate cut on 9/18
  • US Dollar Index 98.20 +1.22%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,606.35 -.31%
  • Bitcoin/USD 10,490.55 -12.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.42 -.40%
  • Yield Curve 6.25 -4.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.55% -18.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $3.747 Trillion +.12%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 15.32 -3.22%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.83 -.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 -30.25 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 51.71 +.6%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 138.95 +4.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.68 +1.38%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.17 +1.60%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 101.82 -5.45%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.64 -.05%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56% -10 basis points
  • TED Spread 24.0 +5.25 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 58.97 +.48%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 428.0 +9.15%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.50 -4.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 204.06 +14.4%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 180.0 unch.
  • M1 Money Supply $3.883 Trillion +.31%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,134.60 -.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,750 +1,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.60% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 620.40 +21.7%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 61.2 -1.7 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.40% -40.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.64/gallon -.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,047 +17.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 830.18 +1.53%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 25.0 +25.0%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 271,996 -1.14%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -1.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Coal +5.0%
  • Tobacco +3.0%
  • Disk Drives +1.3%
  • Papers +1.1%
  • Utilities +.6%
Lagging Sectors
  • Banks -3.0% 
  • Retail -3.9%
  • Agriculture -4.2%
  • Oil Service -5.0%
  • Airlines -5.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (5)
  • ZYXI, APPN, EB, CBLK and CYRX
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (4)
  • DDS, CVET, ADS and TRUP
Weekly Charts
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon Hour on Earnings Optimism, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Short-Covering, Retail/Financial Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -10.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.46 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.78 -1.24%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.58 -3.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +13.6%
  • Total Put/Call 1.10 -5.2%
  • NYSE Arms .50 -64.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.05 -4.79%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 428.0 +1.11%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.10 -5.37%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.0 +3.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.76 -3.0%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.24 -2.4%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.64 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.75 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 23.0 +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.75 +4.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.75 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.87% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 6.0 +2.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.85 USD/Metric Tonne +1.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.6 -4.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -63.60 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.3 -2.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +122 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long