Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Energy +2.7% 2) Computer Hardware +1.3% 3) Agriculture +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NVTS, PZZA, HIMS, NBIS, VELO, ANRO, PRCT, TSSI, UNFI, CRWV, DOCN, WOLF, ORCL, ALAB, FSLY, IREN, UNF, CF, OUST, BNTX, SERV, PTNR, VG, AOSL, KLAR, PI, IPI, PSIX, AXTI, RCAT, YPF, CORZ, AAOI, AMPX, AESI, PBR, EC, UMAC, ANAB, RUN, NTSK, PRE, WULF, MEOH, MNTN, SGRY, BP, OXY, MNTN, CVE, FLNC, LUNR, WBI, LASR, NOG, DAR, INR and TASK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) UMC 2) OCGN 3) ASX 4) PZZA 5) GBTC 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DOMO 2) NBIS 3) PZZA 4) HIMS 5) OCGN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) KRE 4) XME 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DKS)/.23
• (DG)/1.66
• (GIII)/.59
• (OLLI)/1.39 

After the Close: 

• (ADBE)/5.87
• (LEN)/.95
• (RBRK)/-.11
• (ULTA)/8.09
• (ZUMZ)/1.08 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Jan. is estimated at -$66.0B versus -$70.3B in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 215K versus 213K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1850K versus 1868K prior.
• Housing Starts for Jan. is estimated to fall to 1341K versus 1404K in Dec.
• Building Permits for January is estimated to fall to 1410K versus 1455K prior. 

12:00 pm EST

• 4Q Household Change in Net Worth. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, 30Y Bond auction, IEA monthly report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Management Access Forum, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, (VMC) investor day, (JLL) investor meeting, (FFIV) annual meeting and the BofA Information/Business Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +1.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 +.5
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 36.3% of Issues Advancing, 61.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .99 -22.7%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$325.7M
  
• 30 New 52-Week Highs, 60 New Lows
• 53.9% (-3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -7.0

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 60+ days 43.0% unch.
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 49.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.4 +1.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +5.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 526.0 -5.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.7 +.4%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.3 -.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 27.0 (FEAR) -4.0
• 1-Day Vix 1.1 -19.5%
  
• Vix 25.6 +2.5%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -7.4%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +3.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 -1.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Crude Oil 83.68/bbl. +.3% 
• Gold 5,208.8 USD/t oz. -.7%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.84 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 97.6 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.14% -1.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.45% +1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.54 -1.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.43%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.43%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Oil Shock Fears, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Healthcare/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.0 -.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 72.7 +.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .31 +2.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.1 -6.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 137.2 -1.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 77.0 -19.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.4 +.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 37.0 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(494 of 500 reporting) +13.7% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.58 +.27:  Growth Rate +16.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.77% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 524.09 +.71: Growth Rate +31.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.8 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 +4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 56.0 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.61 +1.0% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.4 euros/megawatt-hour -16.0% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.5% +2.2 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.14% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.26 -8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 85.1% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 59.3%(-3.9 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +722 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +81 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -2.4% 2) Computer Services -1.8% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• LXU, TLK, BBSI, CDRE, FLGT, CBOE, OXY, ABM, HHH, UNFI, MEOH, IPGP, BETA, WD, YETI, VIA, PSKY, CRSP, CNC and BNTX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BAX 2) CNC 3) CVE 4) VFC 5) TECH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CNC 2) BNTX 3) NAVN 4) SNOW 5) BBWI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) XLF 3) XLP 4) XLI 5) XLC

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume