Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US/Iran War Uncertainty, Sector Rotation, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +2.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 75.68 -1.3% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.08 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.9 +1.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 129.4 +1.1%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.2 +.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 30.2 +1.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.1 -11.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.0 +.8 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +14.6% +2.8 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.65 -.01:  Growth Rate +15.4% -3.7 percentage points, P/E 21.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.51% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +28.0% +8.9 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.19 +.19: Growth Rate +23.9% unch., P/E 28.2 -.3 point
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 +10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 57.0 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.54 -.7% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.9% +.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.01% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.73 +8.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 82.1% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 52.8%(-1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -43 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -114 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +80 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my transport/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -3.5% 2) AI/Innovation -2.4% 3) Alt Energy -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• A, AEHR, FIHL, ACIW, FSLR, EE, A, PYPL, BLD, AMR, PZZA, NVDA, TGLS, SGML, THO, JEF, SGML, ARGX, GLW, ECG, BIDU, ODD, BMA, HEI/A, VCTR, PNTG, CIB, WHD, EME, NU, NVCR, ALKT, CLPT, ORA, FORM, ONC, PRM, HEI, SRPT, UCTT, SLNO, NOMD, VTS, INVX, PSTG, DCI, UHS, TNGX, ZM, MIRM, VITL, FOUR, FSK, PRCT, WD, METC, ACMR, QURE and ERII

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MLYS 2) EUFN 3) QURE 4) ARRY 5) IMAX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BIDU 2) QURE 3) SOC 4) MNKD 5) JEF

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) PLDR 2) XLP 3) PFUT 4) KBWB 5) FDN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Services +2.7% 2) Road & Rail +2.2% 3) Airlines +2.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• IBTA, SEZL, GCT, IONQ, OPRA, MEG, NVAX, SBGI, FA, VAC, FTDR, XNCR, IMAX, WRBY, LXU, LB, PENN, PVLA, PRMB, CBZ, WWW, ENOV, CHRM, MGNI, BSY, LUNR, SHAK, TTAN, PSKY, VERX, PRVA, RVLV, SJM, LSTR, DAVE, FIGS, WING, PCTY, TKO, NRDS, WIX, CRSP, TREE, HUBS, PHAT, MAN, EXLS, PPTA, FICO, EXLS, GDDY, NPKI, ACN, BAND, TEAM, SARO, KNTK, LNG, TWO, VECO, AXON, CELH, BL, FTAI, TIGO, BWIN, TFX, FVRR, JHG, MIDD, TYL, OUT, URBN, APPF, USAU, TFX, PATH, SONY, TTEK, FWRG, SSTK, ZS, MDB, EXPE, HAYW, AAL, CG, EPR, CTSH, NDAQ, XMTR, NXST, AAL, WK, GSHD, ESTC, DOX, TRMD, ACHC, LMND, CRGY, SAIL, SKYT, BRCB, TNET, SLM, SHOO, STN, DUOL, JOBY, PACS, PCOR, APA, FTRE, IQV, GOLF, KGS, INSW and XPO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PRMB 2) ETN 3) BFLY 4) B 5) YPF 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CELH 2) SEZL 3) GCT 4) LMAT 5) VAC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) SMH 3) FTEC 4) KRE 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMR)/-1.20
• (CLMT)/-.40
• (CRI)/1.70
• (FRO)/1.15 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• PPI Final Demand MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in Dec. 
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Dec. 

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Feb. is estimated to fall to 52.1 versus 54.0 in Jan.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Services Activity for Feb. is estimated to fall to 1.0 versus 2.0 in Jan. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SF) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, Susquehanna Tech Conference and the (CRM) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +15.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 -1.2
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 48.9% of Issues Advancing, 48.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .76 -50.3%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$58.7M
  
• 143 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 66.2% (-.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.2 -2.3

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 75.0% +6.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% unch.
• US strikes Iran by March 15th 45.0% -1.0 percentage point 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.0 -1.8%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 543.25 +1.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.0 -.1%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 137.9 -.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (Moved to FEAR from NEUTRAL) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.5 -16.4%
  
• Vix 19.8 +10.2%
  
• Total Put/Call .91 +18.2%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Cuba says a boat with 10 people near its coast early Wednesday was carrying weapons and its occupants — Cubans living in the US — were intent on entering the country to fight against the government.
• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a strengthening of defense, trade and counter-terrorism ties with Israel during a rare visit, forging closer bonds to combat security threats in their regions.
• Lithium prices and shares surged after Zimbabwe, one of the world’s top producers, suspended concentrate exports, fueling fears that global supplies of the battery ingredient will tighten.
• Gamers are leading the AI backlash as the quality of new tools is not yet good enough to match human developers. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Watch: Dems Double-Down On Refusing To Put Americans First After SOTU Meltdown. 
• Software: short interest (Goldman PB). 
• 15 States Sue RFK Jr. Over Changes To Vaccine Schedule.
• Trump Claims Iran Developing Missiles To Hit US, Contradicting Intel Reports.
• Mexico's Sheinbaum Weighs Legal Action After Musk Alleges Cartel Ties. 
• College Cannot Force CA Professor To Embed DEI Practices In Classroom, Judge Rules.
• "Very few people realize just how much @reidhoffman did and spent to stop Trump from getting re-elected-it seems reasonably likely to me that Trump would still be in office without his efforts. Thank you, Reid! -@sama 
• Watch: Congressional Testimony Abruptly Cut Off After Covert Iran Ops Revealed.
• Supertanker Rates Hit Six-Year High: Here's What Driving It.
• *NVIDIA GUIDE DOESN'T ASSUME ANY CHINA DATA CENTER COMPUTE REV.
• Outrage In Sacramento: California Parole Board Grants Release Of Serial Child Rapist.    
• Crypto Crashes Up As HALO Hiccups; Bullion & Big-Tech Bid Ahead Of NVDA. 

• @CNBC

• Asia tech stocks rally as Nvidia earnings soothe AI slowdown fears.   
• CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia’s earnings beat and other AI news give markets relief — for now.
• Nvidia's forecast points to accelerating growth, as Vera Rubin starts hitting market.
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said Wednesday markets have miscalculated the AI threat to software companies.
• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders mull over earnings from Nvidia and Salesforce: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake, Nutanix & more.
• Former Alphabet 'moonshot' robotics company Intrinsic is folding into Google. 

• @TheTranscript 

• $NVDA CFO on the Blackwell & Vera Rubin overlap: "As you think about the full year, we are absolutely going to be still selling and providing Blackwell probably at the same time that we're also seeing Vera Rubin come to market. This is a very great architecture that helps them.
• $NVDA CEO when asked about confidence in hyperscalers continuing to grow CapEx: "I am confident in their cash flow growing, and the reason for that is very simple. We have now seen the inflection of agentic AI and the usefulness of agents across the world in enterprises everywhere you're seeing incredible compute demand because of it".
• $NVDA CFO: "We shipped our first Vera Rubin samples to customers earlier this week, and we remain on track to commence production shipments in the second half of the year." 
• $NVDA CFO: "We believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand, including shipments, extending into calendar 2027." 
• $NVDA FY26 Revenues by Platform: —Data Center: +68% YoY to $193.74B [now ~90% of total revenue].  • Compute: +59% YoY to $162.36B.  • Networking: +142% YoY to $31.38B. —Gaming: +41% YoY to $16.04B. —Professional Visualization: +70% YoY to $3.19B. —Automotive: +39% YoY to $2.35B. —OEM & Other: +59% YoY to $0.62B. 
• Nvidia CEO: "Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived." $NVDA: +3% AH.
• Snowflake CEO: "...another strong quarter with product revenue of $1.23B, up 30% Y/Y, and remaining performance obligations totaling $9.77B, up 42% Y/Y," $SNOW: -3% AH. 
• Salesforce CEO @Benioff: "We delivered a phenomenal quarter to close out a record fiscal 2026." "Our performance makes us even more confident in our path to reaccelerate organic revenue growth in H2 FY27." $CRM: -4% AH. 

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: Trump asked everyone who agrees the government's first duty is to protect American citizens, not illegal immigrants, to stand up. Not a single Democrat stood. Ilhan Omar and others heckled him. Trump fired back: "You should be ashamed of yourselves." On primetime. In front of millions. Moment of the night. (video)

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Yes, there are secret indictments. Yes, there are secret grand juries. Yes, there are secret taskforces. But the CIA and some of Trump's advisors are trying to keep the rigged election machines in place. Our republic hangs in the balance. 
• They want you looking for aliens and not the Epstein files. They want you looking for Nancy Guthrie and not the Epstein files. They want you watching hockey games in Italy and not the Epstein files. That's because a satanic pedophile ring owns 90% of global media.

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “The fight against global warming - may involved blocking sunlight”. “This is simply government’s way - to control your weather”. “Bill Gates is funding this through Harvard university”. Are you wondering why 95% of the time - the sky is a solid shade of white? Well, this is the reason.. (video)

• @karma44921039 

• Government factions and private contractors are engaging in CHEMICAL WARFARE against their own people. From weather control to health risks, this "conspiracy" is now undeniable. They are literally poisoning every living thing, including our planet. U.S. Air Force whistleblower Kristen Meghan exposes government geoengineering—spraying toxic chemicals like aluminum and barium into our skies. (video)

• @TheSCIF

• Smartmatic connected to individuals on the board of The Open Society Foundation. You wonder why these same election systems used globally and their "anomalies" that occur seem to always and only benefit Democrats or Communist parties in elections. There are no coincidences. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• Casey DeSantis: We have found a number of Popular Breads contain Dangerous Levels of Glysophate. Highest levels of Glyphosate: - Sara Lee Honey Wheat. - Nature’s Own Butter Bread. - Wonder Bread Classic White. - Nature’s Own Perfectly Crafted White. Low or no detectable glyphosate: - Dave’s Killer Bread White Done Right. - Dave’s Killer Bread 21 Whole Grains. - Sara Lee Artesano White. - Pepperidge Farm Farmhouse Hearty White. (video)

• @MattKibbe

• According to the autopsy, the body of the “Epstein” who supposedly killed himself in prison had a prostate, but the other Epstein, the actual Epstein, did not, having had it removed. (video)

• @Casebradford

• Bayer is a pharmaceutical company. Monsanto is a pesticide company. Bayer bought Monsanto. Bayer makes drugs for Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Monsanto makes a toxic herbicide called glyphosate to spray on food crops. Glyphosate causes Non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Full circle. (video)

• @GeneralMCNews

• BREAKING: Attorney General Bondi is taking Bayer’s side by sending the Supreme Court an opinion supporting their liability shield, effectively allowing Americans to be poisoned.

• @NotRadix

• Judge Salas was assigned 4 days ago to unravel all of the money laundering in the Epstein case. Hundred of millions worth with banks, suspects, whole black book. Yesterday a gunman shows up at her house, shoots her husband, kills her son, and escapes without going into house. Funny how everyone forgot about this.

• @Holden_Culotta

• Thomas Massie just declared: “This government is under siege.” And he exposed Susie Wiles and Pam Bondi for taking “millions of dollars from Bayer.” “All three branches of this government are under siege by lobbyists and lawyers from a German company named Bayer.” “They spent over $9 million lobbying … so that they don’t have to be liable for any damages their herbicide Roundup causes.” “The Constitution guarantees people a trial if they’ve been harmed.” “Why are we contemplating going against the Constitution?” “The Attorney General has opined favorably for this German company in front of the Supreme Court about getting rid of any liability that they should have for any damages.” “By the way, the President’s Chief of Staff and the President’s Attorney General worked for one of the biggest lobbying firms that’s received millions of dollars from Bayer.” “Maybe that’s why we’ve seen an executive order that says that the production of this chemical from this German company is a national defense priority.” “And we know why they’re doing that.” “It’s to keep them from having any liability.” “This is wrong.” “We shouldn’t succumb to the lobbyists, not in the executive branch, not in the judicial branch, and certainly not here in Congress.” (video)

• @JesseMatchey

• The person is Dr Melanie Walker: Rockefeller. Gates. DARPA. WEF Neurotech&Brain Council. WHO. World Bank. American Medical Association Board. University Washington. We aren’t talking a 25+ yr casual relationship with Epstein…she’s key to everything. Computer science-brain surgeon. (pic)

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• Undercover at CattleCon: Ranchers & Insiders Expose How Tyson, JBS, Cargill, & National Beef Secretly Control America's Beef Market. The OMG team did a deep dive, going undercover at CattleCon 2026 in Nashville, Tennessee. We spoke with beef industry insiders and ranchers about the top four companies, Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef, which dominate U.S. beef processing. These four companies process the majority of U.S. beef. Over time, dozens of smaller processors merged into four major companies now known as the “Big Four.” “They [Big Four] are buying like all the companies in the United States… so they don’t have competition.” “They [Big Four] can knock you out of this industry in two seconds.” “They [Big Four] closed all the markets — all the markets are theirs in Brazil and now in the U.S.” (video)

• @seanmdav

• This is classic failure theater from Thune. He doesn’t want to do the work of forcing Democrats to maintain a real filibuster, so he’s just going to file cloture on their zombie filibuster, which will fail. Then he can immediately move on to what he really cares about: passing corporate welfare for K Street. Failure theater from do-nothing Republicans should be mocked and condemned, not praised. (video)

• @WallStMav

• BREAKING: Senate Leader John Thune will bring the Save Act to the floor to "put them on the record". However this sounds like it is designed to fail. He is NOT going to force them to debate. Thune will just give a token vote that doesn't reach 60 votes. Then he will say, "oh well, we couldn't get it through. Let's move on to vote for other stuff that is more important to my donors." (video)
• Catherine Herridge has released a staggering interview that reveals 17% of children nationwide are the victim of sexuaI abuse in our public schools by school employees. This would be 8 million students. (video)

• @goddek

• These are the people who were paid to call Candace Owens evil or a demon. Whatever you think of her, smearing someone for money is morally bankrupt. (list)

• @ArthurMacwaters

• This is critical: 1. The SAVE act is overwhelmingly popular (84% across both parties) 2. The silent filibuster is a total abuse of Senate procedure, allowing 40 Senators to block the bill while literally sleeping 3. If Thune does not have the courage to at least require debate, then the SAVE Act will fail. And if it fails now, the next time the senate flips, it is very likely that voter ID will be eliminated altogether. This would result in a permanent one-party state. (pic)

• @HealthRanger

• My latest article: The Glyphosate Deception: Why Nations That Ban It Prove We Don’t Need Poison to Grow Food.

• @RichardGrenell

• Abigail Spanberger was known by her colleagues in the IC as a failure because she was unable to grasp the focus of the CIA without partisanship. She was frustrated by the mission of the CIA and the demand to keep politics out of the job - ultimately she left to be an open Democrat activist. Her colleagues complained about her attempts to politicize intel at every turn.

• @sayerjigmi

• A convicted sex offender was co-developing a Pentagon research program whose applications were explicitly acknowledged — in writing — to have weapons potential. The applicant credited Epstein with the guiding vision: "Your idea!" This was not just proximity to power. This is operational.

• @War4theWest

• 3 examples of horrible Trump endorsements: 1. Greg Abbott for TX governor instead of Doc Pete Chambers? Abbott collaborates with Democrats to run the Texas Statehouse. 2. Tony Gonzales instead of Brandon Herrera for congress, TX district. Gonzales had an affair with a young staffer who killed herself over it. 3. Byron Donalds for Florida governor. It's just been revealed that Donalds impregnated his current wife while married to his previous wife. None of these candidates are actual hard core MAGA. This is just an example of endorsements Trump has made of horrible candidates. I believe Susie Wiles is behind much of this.

• @hodgetwins

• Whatever you feel about Candace Owens, The reaction to her Erika Kirk coverage today is so over the top and correlated it REEKS of a Mockingbird media operation to recapture the narrative... This is how people act when they have something to hide.

• @iAnonPatriot

• HOLY SH*T. A video has resurfaced of Gavin Newsom telling white people that he read a 260 page book in an hour and a half.. Now he’s telling black people that he’s like them and “can’t read”.. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 42.5 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%. 
• Gold 5,209.2 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 -.25%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.8 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.04% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.38% -1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.10%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.15%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.