Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Peak Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Oil Decline, Tech/Medical Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.6 -1.2% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.5 -.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .42 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .06 -4.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.8 -.1% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.2 -3.1% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 63.4 +7.0% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.2 -1.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.0 -.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 68.5 -6.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.2 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +177.9% -6.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.23 +2.50:  Growth Rate +24.1% +.8 percentage point, P/E 19.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.30% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,082.19 +25.41: Growth Rate +61.2% +3.8 percentage points, P/E 17.9 -.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +11.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 48.5 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 +1.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 73.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 8.0% +.1 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.31% +4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.75 -2.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 65.9% (-1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 43.7%(-3.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +280 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -160 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +18 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +230 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my energy/tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.0% 2) Airlines -.8% 3) Computer Services -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FDMT, INSM, SRRK, DFH, LEN, AADX, FRVO, ACMR, MRP, UMC, CHRW, SPHR and BRUN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XAR 2) MMED 3) VICI 4) CMG 5) XP

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) AVXL 2) MRK 3) HYLN 4) GUTS 5) BZAI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLC 3) XLF 4) DRAM 5) VAW

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +4.1% 2) I-Banking +3.8% 3) Gambling +2.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PTC, XP, PCVX, PICS, RXO, PAGS, STNE, DNA, ITUB, PBR/A, BOT, NVAX, QDEL, VIV, CLF, HOG, ELPC, PAX, MELI, TIMB, AFYA, BBWI, BBAR, FUTU, CBRS, MRNA, CLB, GGAL, BSY, DLO, WDC, CEPU, GRAL, DKNG, LTM, VIRT, BMA, TGS, AZTA, STX, UPST, WS, MTUS, SDGR, APP, FWONK, SPCX, PCOR, KLRA, CTVA, LPLA, ECHO, CIB, CRL, TS, FOXF, IART, AMX, XZO, SAN, THRM, GME, RDN, VST, LW, GEO, GMAB, MTRN and VALE

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NXH 2) MMED 3) UMC 4) DNA 5) PAGS 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) XP 2) PCVX 3) PTC 4) VEEA 5) RXO

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) VGT 3) CYBR 4) XLK 5) VOX

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APOG)/.63
• (LW)/.59
• (NEOG)/.05
• (RPM)/1.95 

After the Close: 

• (STZ)/3.55
• (PENG)/.77
• (WS)/.92 

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated to widen to -$102.0B versus -$88.6 billion in July.
• Imports MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +3.9% versus a +2.8% gain in July.
• Exports MoM for Aug. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a -2.1% decline in July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 update, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, EIA short-term energy outlook, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for Oct. and the (ZS) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 +.2
• 10 Sectors Rising, 1 Sector Declining
• 52.7% of Issues Advancing, 45.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .62 -46.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$12.7M
  
• 39 New 52-Week Highs, 201 New Lows
• 40.6% (+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 43.4 +10.0

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 8.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31st 3.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 13.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 18.0% +12.0 percentage points
• US Invades Iran before 2027 16.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31st 24.0% -1.0 percentage point

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 138.4 +1.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 70.0 -5.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 25.0% +5.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 459.0 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 275.2 +.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.3 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +13.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.3 -22.9%
• Vix 15.5 +1.3%
• Total Put/Call .78 +1.3%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Taiwan’s representative to the US projected confidence that President Donald Trump would ultimately approve additional weapons sales to the self-governing island, which has been waiting for a $14 billion arms package. 
• “Taiwan is not on the menu.” Alexander Yui, Taiwan’s Representative to the United States, tells @davidgura and @EenaRuffini that US policy remains unchanged following President Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington. The two world leaders are set to meet two more times before the end of the year. 
• Macron’s messy legacy: France has become Europe’s weakest link as investors dump assets and popular anger soars. 
• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and conservative challenger Flávio Bolsonaro are projected to go to a runoff in Brazil, setting up a battle over whether Latin America’s largest nation will join a regional swing to the right.
• Apple’s new CEO has been prioritizing leading the company’s design team in his first weeks on the job.
• The exodus of the uber-rich from the UK has become a $160 billion problem. 
• Republican self-sabotage may not be enough to help tip the midterms in the Democrats’ favor. 
• Schumer demands that Flock delete personal data not connected to crimes and disclose whether federal agencies have accessed the company’s nationwide license-plate database. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.    
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia. 

• @Zerohedge  

• "Very Concerning Safety Issues": Trump's mRNA-Skeptic FDA Drug Chief Was Mysteriously Fired - Right Before This Drug Was Approved. 
• We Cannot Trust The CDC Estimates Of Flu Vaccine Effectiveness. 
• Trump Taps Intelligence Chief Jay Clayton As AI Czar, Brushing Off Calls To Slow Down. 
• 2.7 million rials for one dollar. 
• "Deeply Flawed": Biggest US Grid Scraps Emergency Data Center Power Auction One Day After FERC Smackdown. 
• Conviction Collapse: Hedge Fund Leverage Hits "Liberation Day" Lows As Everything But The VIX Screams Fear. 
• Iran "Decision Week": Trump Teases "Easy Way Or Hard Way" As Tankers Burn, Rial Craters And Tehran's Oil Minister Quits. 
• Schneider Electric nears deal to buy software group PTC for $20bn. 
• California Attorney General Subpoenas OpenAI In Cybersecurity Inquiry. 
• British Banking Whistleblower Who Exposed Lutnick's Epstein Ties Dies; Ruled Suicide. 
• Morgan Stanley Explains How Higher Yields And Stronger Dollar Will Stress Test Emerging Markets. 
• US Treasury Grants Sanctions Waiver For Some Iranian Flights To Iraq. 
• Mike Wilson: Market Bad Breadth "Must Be Resolved One Way Or Another" And It All Hinges On Bond Vol. 
• Bolsonaro Leads As Brazil Election Heads Toward Runoff; Traders Brace For Monday Volatility. 
• Judge Freezes Border Wall In Big Bend, A Sector Covering A Quarter Of The Border But Just 1-3% Of Apprehensions. 
• Something Is Rotten In The State Of Yields.      
• The US Doesn't Have An Oil Problem - It Has A Refinery Problem.
• *IRAN’S OIL MINISTER MOHSEN PAKNEJAD RESIGNS: PRESS TV. *IRAN PRESIDENT NAMES HAMID BOVARD ACTING OIL MINISTER:PRESS TV.
• US, Australia Halt Consular Services In Brazil Before Presidential Election, Citing Security Concerns.
• "First Time In History": Bessent Says Iran Faces Zero Oil Revenue As Tanker Loadings Collapse.
• Why So Many Social Science Claims Are False.  
• "In The Name Of God": Yemen Leader Orders All-Out Offensive Against Iran-Backed Houthis.
• Zelensky Vows To Hammer More Russian Refineries As G7 Greenlights Emergency Fuel Dump.
• Brazil Votes In Tight Presidential Election With South America's Future On The Line.
• "We Don't Need To Sell The Story Anymore": Nuclear Wins The Argument At WNA 2026... Now Everyone Is Racing For Bronze.
• Why Apartments In Tokyo Are So Much Cheaper Than In NYC.
• 11 Million US Workers May Need To Switch Careers By 2035.
• Chinese Hackers Impersonate Former White House Official In Attempt To Steal US AI Policy Secrets.
• Minnesota Might Hand Republicans A Senate Upset Nobody Predicted.
• "A Tail Of Two Cities”: Hartnett Says "Start Adding Some Bonds".
• Stockpiling Begins: Neros Awarded $100 Million Pentagon Contract For Kamikaze Drones.
• The Fed Created Zohran Mamdani.           

• @CNBC 

• Daily Open: Who's steering oil now?
• Stock futures are flat as investors grapple with higher yields, await Fed minutes: Live updates.
• Trump reiterates pledge to send $5,000 checks, and hands out smaller payments, as midterm elections loom.
• Top Wall Street analysts are upbeat about the prospects for these 3 stocks.
• Sports betting is increasingly the norm for Gen Z. Here’s why some financial and mental health experts are worried.    

• @MarioNawful

• France in total chaos as police retreat and crowds take over the streets. The city has simply lost control. (video)

• @WallStreetApes 

• The Amish in New York are facing massive fines over Democrats vaccine mandates. Amish families will likely have to flee the state after losing the religious exemption they’ve had for decades. Amish private schools are being hit with crushing fines for not having students vaccinated. The fines are roughly $2,000 per noncompliant children, multiplied by the number of school days. 3 small schools were sited, of the 59 children already cited, one more day of attendance brought the total fines to $118,000, they say they can’t pay it. New York Democrats position is that every day an unvaccinated child attends school there will be a fresh violation worth up to $2,000.

• @HormuzLetter

• BREAKING: Ukraine will severely escalate its strikes on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure this winter, Zelensky tells Reuters. Russia has already halted diesel exports until November.

• @KobeissiLetter

• AI-related employment is surging: AI-linked roles have accounted for more than +750,000 new jobs created in the US since 2023, according to LinkedIn estimates. This surge has been led by data annotators, with +282,000 new positions created, followed by data center jobs at +117,000, and AI engineers at +105,000. As a result, these 3 categories have accounted for +504,000 new jobs. AI-related positions also offer significantly higher pay, with a median salary of ~$180,000 on LinkedIn, compared to $80,000 across all jobs. This comes as the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, particularly the buildout of data centers, is driving stronger demand for labor. The AI boom is reshaping the US job market.

• @ABridgen

• BREAKING: Russia Accuses Bill Gates of Funding Bioterrorism. In a shocking revelation, Russia's Ministry of Defense (MOD) has accused billionaire Bill Gates of funding "bioterrorism-related activities" with the alleged goal of population reduction. Can you see why the ‘Epstein’s class’ so desperately want a war with Russia ?

• @ReturnOfKappy

• It's right in front of us..!! A reptilian crocodile in a suit with human hands, dragging a baby with a money bag on its head underground… This isn't "art”… It's a satanic subliminal message, mirroring the elite tunnels… Guess where this statue is..? Rockefeller Park in New York City... (pic)

• @Barchart

• Stocks have performed extremely well in October and November during midterm election years. (graph)

• @proamericapol

• This is surreal. Paris has been conquered. The cops are sitting back and watching it happen because being taken over by an immigrant invasion is better than being called a racist. Unbelievable. (video)

• @LaraLogan

• This is how badly Amy Klobuchar wants the Somali vote - she is willing to betray her country to get it. Never mind the fraud & the Somali flags and the upside down American flag…. (pic)

• @DonaldePMitchell

• The insane landscape of modern drone warfare. Including "dragon drones" dropping molten iron (thermite) onto structures and trenches. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +1.75% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 36.75 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 91.05 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%.
• Crude Oil 90.04/bbl. -1.2%
• Gold 4,187.50 USD/t oz. +.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.09 +.08%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.60 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 137.70 +.6%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.25% -2.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.24% +4.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.2%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.
• S&P 500 futures +.12%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.40%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% Net Long heading into the week.