Monday, March 09, 2026

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @redpillb0t
  • @MarioNawful
  • @Tarikh_Eran
  • Large chunks of Tehran just lost all their electricity. Based on the sound of Iranians in the video you can tell everyone is puzzled and shocked by what just happened. 
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @JohnBasham
  • @Osint613
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • NEW: The FBI has seized election records from Maricopa County, Arizona as part of an expanding federal probe into potential election irregularities. Agents obtained terabytes of voting data via grand jury subpoena from the Arizona Senate tied to its 2024 election, according to @jsolomonReports. "Every year, the House Administration Committee sends observers—one Democrat, one Republican—to various voting centers." "One of the teams, the Republican-Democrat team that went to Maricopa County, observed something very disturbing." "They took pictures. They wrote a long report." (video)
  • @amuse
  • @epsteinsearchin
  • @CollinRugg
  • JUST IN: Fox News' Laura Ingraham pressures Sen Ted Cruz to tell her why Sen Lindsey Graham is "coaching" Netanyahu "on how to lobby President Trump." Ingraham: The WSJ says Graham traveled several times to Israel in recent weeks... meeting with members of the country's intelligence agency, spoke with Netanyahu, coaching him on how to lobby President Trump for action... Cruz: Lindsey is passionate about defending America... Ingraham: This is something of a totally different level, is it not? Cruz: No. Actually, when it comes to the threat Iran poses, Lindsey agrees they pose a major threat to America... Ingraham: Our point is working with Netanyahu so closely to lobby President Trump, acting as an intermediary for a foreign country. Is that appropriate? (video)
  • @ImMeme0
  • @merlinscapital
  • @DiedSuddenly
  • @rawsalerts
  • @memeticsisyphus
  • This really is an all time photo. A protestor shouting about the pros of immigration is interrupted by an Islamic terrorist throwing a bomb jumping over him. (pic)
  • @iAnonPatriot
  • @DC_Draino
  • @KelleyAshbyPaul
  • @profstonge
  • @AutismCapital
  • NEW: Professor Jiang believes that Dubai is not coming back. "It's all been a mirage. They spent a lot of money creating this image of itself as a safe and secure place where you don't pay taxes, and you can make a lot of money, so put your money here, but guess what, just one ballistic missile has destroyed this mirage, and once the mirage is destroyed it's never coming back. We can expect billions of dollars to flee the GCC, especially the UAE over the next few weeks. (video)
  • @ChildrensHD
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +2.0% to +4.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.25 -6.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 45.0 -4.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 85.40/bbl. -9.9% 
  • Gold 5,185.4 USD/t oz. +1.6%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.77 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 96.9 +.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.10% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.43% -4.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.6%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Surging Inflation Expectations, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.3 -.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 +14.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.1 +.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 146.4 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 96.1 +10.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 -.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 -12.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.8 -1.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +13.7% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.31 +1.52:  Growth Rate +16.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.76% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 523.38 +8.59: Growth Rate +31.5% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 28.5 -.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 -28.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.9 -.2% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.5 euros/megawatt-hour +5.8% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% -1.3 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% -90.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.55 +30.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 60.8%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +740 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.7% 2) Airlines -2.3% 3) Retail -2.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ASGI, VCTR, VLO, NESR, ALK, ARR, MT, SAIA, BR, ONON, ODD, UPS, WFRD, M, EVR, MBUU, TECX, RH, HROW, PII, KSS, DAKT, PTRN, BATL, RCAT, DFH, LAZ, AERO, ELF, ALOY, ORIC and OLMA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XENE 2) BAM 3) FND 4) PL 5) SCO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CMCT 2) OLMA 3) BYND 4) BRBR 5) FCEL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) XBI 4) XLP 5) IGV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) AI/Innovation +1.7% 2) Semis +1.4% 3) Shipping +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XENE, HIMS, DNTH, QURE, RGNX, KC, CLPT, AXTI, SNDX, LITE, KALV, VRT, MEOH, CAPR, TEN, ADEA, AAOI, AGX, CRCL, SNDK, UTHR, ISSC, LNTH, XPEV, PTCT, DOW, LYV, TER, PZZA, LAUR, AVBP, BW, SPHR, INSW, AMPX, UMAC, LIF, BILI, KLAR, DHT, LTH, PBR/A, FRO, VSEC, UMAC, PBR, AGRO, OMDA and CRESY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PROP 2) SCO 3) BN 4) BLDR 5) WEAT 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) QURE 2) UTHR 3) RGNX 4) DYN 5) HIMS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) SOXX 3) ITA 4) XLK 5) XLI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/.87
  • (KSS)/.86
  • (UNFI)/.51 
After the Close: 
  • (AVAV)/.68
  • (ORCL)/1.70 
Economic Release 

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 99.6 versus 99.3 in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

  • Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 3.88M versus 3.91M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, API weekly crude oil stock report, Cantor Tech/Industrial Growth Conference, BNP Strategic Access/Research Conference, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Management Access Forum, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, Citi Consumer/Retail Conference, Barclays Healthcare Conference, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, (ETN) investor day, (TOL) general meeting, (HWM) investor meeting, (BG) investor day and the Leerink Health Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +31.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -4.2
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 19.5% of Issues Advancing, 79.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .47 -36.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$313.6M
  • 44 New 52-Week Highs, 118 New Lows
  • 52.2% (-9.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 31.7 -4.7
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 98.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 32.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31st? 98.0% +21.0 percentage points 
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.2 +.5%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +6.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 93.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 555.5 +7.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.43 -.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.4 +1.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 23.0 (Moved to EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 17.3 -46.9%
  • Vix 28.3 -3.9%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%