Friday, February 07, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @Breaking911
  • @MilaLovesJoe
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • BREAKING: FBI UNCOVERS 256 EMAILS BETWEEN ADAM SCHIFF & JEFFREY EPSTEIN. Kash Patel just dropped a bombshell: An FBI investigation has revealed 256 emails exchanged between Adam Schiff and Jeffrey Epstein. Patel called it a "massive scandal" and insisted that Schiff must be held accountable. 
  • BILL GATES: THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN ON EARTH? A billionaire with a god complex. A smug, unelected elitist who believes he should decide who lives, who dies, and whether humanity is even necessary. A man with sinister ties to Epstein Island and the WEF, pushing a globalist agenda that sees YOU as expendable. “Will we still need humans?” Bill Gates: “Not for most things—we’ll decide.” Read that again. This isn’t a joke. This is the mindset of a man who has spent decades funding population control, AI automation to replace workers, and authoritarian health policies that strip you of your freedom. (video)
  • @GenFlynn
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @VigilantFox
  • @MarioNawfal
  • THE GOVERNMENT IS WASTING YEARS OF YOUR LIFE: USAID IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK. Imagine paying $20,000 to the government every year. That’s the average tax bill for an American—months of hard work, maybe half your paycheck. Now imagine an entire year of your labor being spent on a transgender comic book in Peru. 100 people’s entire yearly tax payments funded sex-change surgeries in Guatemala. 300 years of taxpayer work? Spent on boosting Egypt’s tourism. The more you dig and understand how much time and effort it takes to raise that kind of money, the worse it gets.
  • @catturd2
  • You paid for this... USAID funneled $27 million to Black Lives Matter through the Tides Foundation. Infuriating.
  • @LibertyLockPod
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @KariLake
  • @LaraLogan
  • @AlanJacobyJr
  • @ClaytonMorris
  • @MDBreathe

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,024.0 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,333.0 -.5%
  • NASDAQ 19,523.2 -.6%
  • Russell 2000 2,279.9 -.43%
  • NYSE FANG+ 13,588.4 +.3%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 203.12 +.91%
  • Wilshire 5000 59,978.2 -.3%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,107.4 -.39%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,902.4 -.23%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 883.19 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 251.01 -2.5%
  • NYSE Technology 5,670.3 +1.0%
  • Transports 16,298.2 -1.0%
  • Utilities 997.88 -.2%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 128.0 +2.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 43.3 +1.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 217.7 -.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 116.5 -.6%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 540,993 +.15%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 -2.3%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 337 +18
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -30.5 +4.5%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 264,126 -11.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,782,462 -4.5%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -8.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .80 -14.1%
  • ISE Sentiment 177.0 +36.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .72 -64.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.78 -1.0 basis point
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.5 -4.3%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.23 -17.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.6 +4.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.7 +3.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.4 unch.
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,744.3 -1.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  84.9 +16.6
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.917 Trillion +.64%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.997 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.3 -18.8%
  • AAII % Bears 42.9 +26.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) -9.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 307.5 +.4%
  • Crude Oil 70.9/bbl. -3.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 210.54 +1.0%
  • Natural Gas 3.31 +8.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.9%
  • Heating Oil 243.4 -.41% 
  • Newcastle Coal 110.5 (1,000/metric ton) -5.5%
  • Gold 2,862.2 +2.3%
  • Silver 31.9 +2.1%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 453.1 +2.0%
  • Copper 459.2 +7.6%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 362.0 USD/Metric Tonne +6.2%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.1 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
  • CME Lumber  595.5 +.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,493.3 +.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 290.0 USD/Short Ton +7.4%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.94% +5.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.0% -.3 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.49 -10.8%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 397.8 +54.1%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(308 of 500 reporting) +12.6% +5.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.12 -.75:  Growth Rate +15.7% -.3 percentage point, P/E 22.0 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.83% -29.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% +9.4 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 402.86 +1.49: Growth Rate +30.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 33.7 +.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.0 -9.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.7 +5.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.9 +9.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 8.5%(-7.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 91.5%(+7.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  • US Dollar Index 108.03 -.4%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,740.1 -.12%
  • Bitcoin/USD 96,869.6 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.8 -2.6%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 20.75 -12.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.49% -6.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.765 Trillion -.1%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.466 Billion +22.3%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.197 Billion -7.5%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.8 +2.5%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 210.68 -.42%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 unch.
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.2 -1.6%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.78 -2.0%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 173.8 -4.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.8 +.11%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.6 -2.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 +.36%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.73 +.89%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.52% unch.: CPI YoY +2.85% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.63% +30.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -1.0 basis point -6.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.75 -.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +.25 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 48.5 -.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 182.0 +.6
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 182.0 +7.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.3 -.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 142.2 +.2%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 157.7 -1.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 136.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 604.0 -4.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .47 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,219.5B +.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 216,750 +1.9%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.2 +13.6%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.94% -6.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 224,800 +2.2%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.8% +30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +3.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $87.5M -23.1%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.14/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 793.0 +7.9%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,272.5/40 ft Box -2.7%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,415.0 -6.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.5 +25.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 51.6 -1.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 291,551 +9.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,211,265 +23.5%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.8%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Value -.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Education +5.4%
  • Disk Drives +5.2%
  • Social Media +5.1%
  • Gold & Silver +5.1%
  • Video Gaming +4.1%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -1.5%
  • Healthcare Providers -1.5%
  • Retail -2.2%
  • Agriculture -3.3%
  • Homebuilding -6.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (55)
  • DOCS, LEU, SWI, AFRM, NET, SERV, PINS, EXPE, VSAT, TTWO, CRNC, PGY, OKLO, NBIS, G, CLSK, EH, DQ, TDOC, MGNI, HIMS, IIIV, GRRR, PRO, FUTU, UBER, EZPW, MPWR, SPIR, POST, ROAD, PONY, IREN, SSNC, DSP, SMR, BYRN, AMRK, LI, MBX, HOOD, SMCI, OPRA, WFRD, PRTH, TEM, LRN, HTHT, BABA, OPRA, TAL, TKO, FTNT, OPFI, AZPN and GDS
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (38)
  • GOOG, PAA, PCTY, MCHP, TYRA, HAE, AMZN, HUBG, TEX, SIMO, BCE, OTEX, APD, DHI, ZBRA, IRS, QNST, SYNA, ULTA, CAMT, CYTK, DNB, DLX, ATR, ILMN, RGA, AVTR, ONTO, SKX, ODD, PLRX, SMTC, WBTN, NBIX, ELF, VREX and BILL
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Higher Long-Term Rates, Escalating Tariff Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Homebuilding/Biotech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -267 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +60 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long