Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.0 +.25 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.80 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%. 
• Crude Oil 67.61/bbl. -1.4% 
• Gold 4,065.20 USD/t oz. -.43%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.40 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.69 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 122.5 -.8%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.48% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.0% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -.25%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.03%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.34%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.u

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Positive Earnings Outlook Revisions, Sector Rotation, Crypto Bounce, Healthcare/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 -.7%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 +1.1% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.24 -5.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.3 -.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 141.3 +.6%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 56.6 +4.3% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 92.4 +2.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 51.5 -8.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -20.4 -2.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.0 +3.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +174.4% -14.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 371.58 +.07:  Growth Rate +26.3% unch., P/E 20.2 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.62% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 894.93 +.62: Growth Rate +72.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 +.3 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.24 +15.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.67 -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.1 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.0% -1.4 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.2% -1.3 percentage points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.47% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.43 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 50.7% (+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 47.0%(+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -570 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -207 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -36 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +160 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my financial/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.8%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -5.9% 2) AI Innovation -5.7% 3) Construction -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• GPCR, RRX, VSAT, PATK, WMT, CRESY, WTTR, FMC, CEG, FRPT, WYFI, CDNL, TARS, SHAZ, FCEL, ROAD, AA, AMAT, CRWV, GLW, NBIS and CHRN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HTZ 2) GGAL 3) ZIM 4) CIA 5) U

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NBIS 2) CAT 3) TARS 4) SSTK 5) AMAT

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) PTF 2) XLK 3) PRN 4) XLI 5) IGV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) I-Banking +4.5% 2) Software +4.1% 3) Social Media +3.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ALIT, RAAQ, PRGS, RDDT, GH, MSTR, ZBIO, MNTN, COIN, DLO, RGNX, MH, APP, ASST, META, CELH, GLOB, GRND, BILL, HIMS, ALOY, TEM, SPGI, PLTR, ABX, PESI, KRMN, VERX, ASTH, PATH, UMAC, KD, GIS, DAVE, AXON, LMND, NVCT, CAI, ROOT, ACN, MGNI, ELF, SE, ZSQR, NVCT, DNA, CLBT, JACK, CCEP, KTOS, MATX, ALSN, PACS, KMTS, QTWO, MSM, PUBM, TBBK, AVAV, Z, FLYW, PRCH, PGY, URGN, KMTS, IIIV, PTRN, LI, GPN, APD, ZG, TALO, BIDU, GRRR, ICE, PSNL, ALKT, HLI, EZPW, CYRX, VRSK, CBL, ADPT, MAMA, PSO, RBRK, CWK, FOX, ZPEV, AVPT, FSUN, OMDA, TFPM, BB, ESTA, TRMB, FOXA, FHB, CON, SDRL, WSE and RCAT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DLO 2) ICLN 3) CGNX 4) ODD 5) HTZ 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EHGO 2) GNS 3) GH 4) AMPL 5) TOX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) SMH 3) XLF 4) KRE 5) XHB

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (LNN)/1.14

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for June is estimated at 115K versus 172K in May.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in May.
• The Unemployment Rate for June is estimated at 4.3% versus 4.3% in May.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 218K versus 215K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1820K versus 1821K prior. 

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for May is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a +4.8% gain in April.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for May is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a +1.3% gain in April.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for May. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly Fed's weekly balance sheet report, US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +3.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.1 -2.8
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 65.1% of Issues Advancing, 32.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .79 -56.4%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$50.6M
  
• 137 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 57.6% (+4.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.9 +1.4

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 4.0% -1.0 percentage point 
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31st 31.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 4.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 2.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 14.0% unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.5 +.3%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 62.0 -1.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 92.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 463.0 +4.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 265.3 +1.2%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 162.8 -.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -10.1%
• Vix 16.4 -.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -11.6%