BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Friday, July 10, 2026

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 11:33 AM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

(FAST)/.33

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

2:00 pm EST

Federal Budget Balance report for June.

Upcoming Splits

None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking and the OPEC meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, July 09, 2026

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:59 PM

Around X:

@Business

Technical talks between the US and Iran continue, according to a US official, following two-days of clashes that threatened to shatter an already fragile ceasefire.
As investors increasingly turn to artificial intelligence for help with everything from stock picking to risk management, JPMorgan has been testing whether a model can do something more ambitious: allocate money itself.
Markets are providing a fresh reminder that when anyone makes unqualified predictions about technology equities, be wary.
SK Hynix priced its US listing of American depositary receipts at $149 each, according to a person familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public.
Polymarket is seeking regulatory approval to offer margin trading in the US, a move that would let users bet on events with less capital upfront and help the prediction market platform attract more sophisticated traders.
Palm Beach International Airport officially became the President Donald J. Trump International Airport.
UPS and FedEx shares tumbled after an analyst warned that Amazon's offering inexpensive and increasingly fast delivery services to third-party customers, underscoring the risk posed by the e-commerce giant to traditional shipping firms.
Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

@ZeroHedge

@CNBC

Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
U.S. investors are getting a new way to buy into the memory boom. SK Hynix, the second most valuable company in South Korea, behind only Samsung, is slated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday. The market debut, coinciding with the company’s hefty expansion plans for the U.S., comes after a more than sevenfold increase in its stock price over the past year, a rally that’s lifted SK Hynix’s market cap to about $1 trillion.
Stock futures are little changed as S&P 500 heads for winning week: Live updates.
A huge trade just happened on the Nasdaq 100. Bulls are taking notice.

@MarioNawful

The EU just passed Chat Control 1.0 in Brussels. Platforms can now scan your private messages again, officially "voluntary," in practice blanket surveillance. Here's the democratic scandal: 314 MEPs voted against it. Only 276 voted for it. It passed anyway... because an absolute majority of all MEPs was required to reject it, not just a majority of those present. More people voted no than yes. It still passed. Pushed through on an urgent procedure just before summer recess, when absences are highest and attention is lowest. This is how rights disappear folks. Not in one dramatic moment, but in procedural fine print, on a slow news day, while everyone's looking at Tehran.
BREAKING: Israel warned Washington of a fresh Iranian plot to assassinate Trump. -Israel shared new intelligence with the U.S. indicating Iran was considering a new plan to kill the President. -Trump alluded to it himself in Ankara: "They want to take out the U.S. leader, me. I'm on every list... so far, I guess I've been a little bit lucky, but that maybe doesn't last very long". -Iran has vowed for years to avenge the Soleimani killing, and Khamenei's funeral featured a banner reading "We Will Kill Trump". -The intel lands amid the frayed Trump-Netanyahu relationship, with the two speaking today and agreeing to continue "coordination". The sourcing deserves its own scrutiny. Israel delivering this intelligence right now serves a documented interest: Netanyahu wants the war continued, Trump wants out, and nothing re-anchors an American president to the fight like a credible plot against his life.

@LauraLoomer

MUST READ! We spent 4 years calling out the Democrats for covering up Joe Biden’s mental decline, and now Republicans are doing the same for Senator Mitch McConnell
@SenMcConnell, who is brain dead. Mitch McConnell was found unconscious in his home on June 14th. He was reportedly in cardiac arrest and there is verified audio circulating of a 911 call where emergency services were requested at his home in DC on June 14th, the same day his staff confirmed he was hospitalized. On the call, you can hear the operator say a man at Mitch McConnell’s home was found unconscious in cardiac arrest and that CPR was being given. That means Senator McConnell needed to be resuscitated. That’s the whole purpose of CPR.

@TonySeruga

A “20-minute phone call” that nobody independently verified, on a device nobody can confirm belongs to or is used by McConnell, initiated through channels controlled entirely by his office, with no visual confirmation before or after — that’s not evidence of his condition. That’s a produced event. The Jennings Call Is Especially Telling. Scott Jennings — a political commentator, not a Senate colleague — also got a ~20-minute call. He says they discussed Iran, Ukraine, Maine, the Teddy Roosevelt Presidential Library, and “Senate history.” That’s a highly suspiciously polished list of topics for a man supposedly hospitalized for weeks with an undisclosed condition. It reads like PR firm spin, not a natural conversation with an old friend.

@BennyJohnson

Mitch McConnell’s Daughter Just DELETED Her Social Media Accounts After Everyone Demanded Proof of Life from Her Father. Why would someone do that? Wouldn't you want to be able to tell the masses if your father is alive and well? Or, how his CCP-royalty wife. Elaine Chao, whose family owns a shipping empire in China, jetted off to Beijing to meet top Chinese officials days after Mitch’s cardiac episode. One big happy “bipartisan” power couple, right? America First gets the knife from the McConnell family tree while they cash in with the regime in Beijing. Kentucky deserves answers. America deserves the truth.

@TheShadowIntelX

Elon Musk: "It's mind-blowing they have not tried to prosecute even one. Not even the worst offender on the Epstein client list." "They've not even tried to prosecute even one. That's insane." Tucker Carlson: "Well, because they have a lot of diabetic grandmothers who were outside the Capitol on January 6th. They're kind of occupied." Elon: "They put like 500 or 600 January 6th protesters in prison and not one person on the Epstein client list." (video)

@BenSwann_

The Case Against Tyler Robinson Is Collapsing in Plain Sight! The Tyler Robinson hearing is an absolute joke, and the record so far makes that painfully clear. The state’s key evidence, a “surveillance compilation” edited by the Utah Attorney General’s office, was rejected for alterations, and there is still no raw, uncut footage of the assassination. The officer on scene couldn’t even recover the shell casing from Robinson’s alleged rifle, and the DNA on the towel is 95% linked to Lance Twiggs, not Tyler Robinson. To make matters worse, the officer’s bodycam was conveniently turned off at the most critical moments. As it stands today, the state has zero solid evidence actually tying Tyler Robinson to the assassination of Charlie Kirk. (video)

@HustleBitch_

"FLOCK YOU PETER THIEL!" — AMERICANS ARE RAGING & FIGHTING BACK AGAINST HIS SURVEILLANCE EMPIRE People are done staying quiet. A new clip showing Peter Thiel’s companies Palantir and Flock has the internet raging. Palantir, the all-seeing data monster, hoovers up massive amounts of information and turns it into actionable intelligence. Flock blankets neighborhoods with license plate readers and cameras. They’re now bragging about “Maven Smart System”, their flagship AI tool that fuses multiple data feeds into one clean god-mode interface. Left click. Right click. Detection becomes action. No more clunky systems. Just one terrifyingly efficient machine for total surveillance and targeting.
THEY'RE "COOKING THE SKY" WITH 5G ON WATER TOWERS EVERYWHERE — AND PEOPLE ARE LOSING THEIR MINDS. A man filming around his town caught antennas popping up on water towers left and right. He says they're literally "cooking the sky"... pumping out massive 5G and EMF waves that are creating lines in the air and straight up blocking the sun. He says this isn't random. We're now sitting under a huge weather control grid that's managing the climate and cutting sunlight on purpose. (video)

@Chicago1Ray

Maxine Waters has not showed up for work in (7) mo's and she's still collecting a check. Raise your hand if you want Speaker Johnson to expel her from congress for theft. She's stealing from the American people, by getting paid but doing your job. This ends now.

@XVanFleet

The Chao family’s story is one many Americans may not know. The family’s billion-dollar shipping fortune is closely tied to patriarch James Chao’s personal relationship with former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin. The Chao family has also been a major financial supporter of Mitch McConnell, contributing millions to his political campaigns and significantly increasing his family’s wealth. Elaine Chao’s younger sister, Angela, later took over the family shipping company. While an American citizen, she served on the boards of China’s largest state-owned bank, Bank of China, and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, a major Chinese state-owned defense contractor. She died in 2024 after driving her vehicle into a pond on her Texas ranch, in what authorities ruled was an accidental drowning. Elaine Chao has long maintained unusually high-level access to senior Chinese Communist Party officials. The question is simple: Do you trust Mitch McConnell?

@SawyerMerritt

U.S. based humanoid robotics company @1x_tech has just unveiled their new tendon-driven robot hands with 25 degrees of freedom (DOF).

@PolyMarketMoney

JUST IN: Humanoid robots successfully perform surgery for the first time.

@Kalshi_Finance

BREAKING: Tech insiders are buying stock at the fastest pace in history.

@LibertyLockPod

For those that haven't followed this closely. CK was place in the vehicle in under a minute. The car ride was less than 10. Likely less than 5. So within 5 or 10 minutes Shapiro's security was getting real time updates from CK's security and that was relayed to Shapiro. When they should've been working tirelessly to save his life. Shapiro was not CK's friend. CK did not work for DW. While the rest of the world was just learning about a shot being fired somehow Shapiro has a direct line to the security team which just failed to secure their protectee? This is weird beyond belief and I hope everyone will set their bias aside and really think about how this was even possible. So disturbing. (video)

@Breaking911

BREAKING: Sen. John Thune reportedly took $1.58M from the Illegal-Labor Lobby pushing amnesty. That’s why he won’t force the SAVE Act to the floor. A new website has launched to hold him accountable.

@EricLDaugh

JUST IN: Rep. Anna Paulina Luna publicly states that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is "actively working to BLOCK the SAVE AMERICA ACT" by planning to file his own version of the NDAA. SAVE needs to get DONE by any means necessary!

@JackUnheard

BREAKING: Muslims just SECURED city approval for "New Africa" in Little Rock, Arkansas. A full Sharia Law community. Buyers are forced to sign an Islamic Bill of Assurance pledging to follow Quranic guidelines enforced by the mosque-run HOA. Homes + mosque + Islamic school on the way. I N S A N E.

@DanielGilr44222

Florida, is rolling out AI-powered cameras on its garbage trucks to scan properties for code violations, unpermitted renovations, & other issues. After installing FLOCK cameras on poles, the city is now adding mobile surveillance from trash trucks to monitor homes and yards. (video)

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are +.5% to +2.0% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 -.75 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 36.75 -.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 99.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
Crude Oil 72.13/bbl. +.1%
Gold 4,120.50 USD/t oz. -.5%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.43 +.12%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.69 -.02%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.6 +.05%.
US 10-Year Yield 4.54% -1.0 basis point.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.94% -8.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 +.5%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.1%.
S&P 500 futures -.12%.
NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Oil Decline, Bargain-Hunting, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Posted by Gary .....at 3:35 PM

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.7 -1.1%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.54 -.9%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .28 +2.0 basis points
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.19 +5.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.10 -1.7%
Emerging Market CDS Index 140.40 -1.4%
Israel Sovereign CDS 57.5 +.6%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 93.4 +2.1

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.5 -.1

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.6 +.5

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.7 -1.4
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +148.4% -26.0 percentage points
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 372.58 +.02: Growth Rate +26.6% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 +.2
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.63% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 897.75 +.29: Growth Rate +73.1% unch., P/E 19.3 +.2
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.19 -1.0 basis point
US Yield Curve 37.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 173.7 +2.3%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.6%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% -.3 percentage point
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.3% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.54% -4.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 1.44 -9.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 49.9% (-.7 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 47.3%(+.9 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,330 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -190 open in China
KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +67 open in South Korea

DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 3:02 PM

Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Underperformers:

1) Shipping -2.5% 2) Computer Services -1.9% 3) Oil Service -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:

COST, AZN, ROAD, EPAC, MDA, LE, GVA and IONS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

1) IYR 2) RARE 3) SNDQ 4) BNY 5) PENG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

1) IONS 2) PEP 3) GVA 4) COST 5) AVAV

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

1) KRE 2) ITB 3) XLY 4) XLC 5) KBE

Charts:

Bull Radar

Posted by Gary .....at 2:55 PM

Style Outperformer:

Mid-Cap Growth +1.9%

Sector Outperformers:

1) Lithography/Photonics +5.3% 2) Computer Hardware +4.7% 3) AI Innovation +4.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

FBRX, LASR, BBIO, HELE, CNMD, NGNE, MARA, ONTO, PENG, QGEN, RIVN, BAND, SAH, SYNA, GTLB, WYFI, UCTT, INBX, BLZE, XP, ALHC, GH, EIKN, TBBK, CCXI, PSNL, ERIC, SYF, SLM, ALNT, SUNB, AMAT, ITT, AAL, TFIN, MGNI, INMD, MLTX, DAKT, LOGI, PRLB, FCEL, CMCL, GFI, SEPN, SHAZ and DRD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

1) TD 2) ACI 3) LEVI 4) AS 5) NTAP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

1) AEHR 2) LRCX 3) MU 4) LITE 5) QGEN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

1) SMH 2) BAI 3) RAAX 4) DRAM 5) XLB