Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Fears, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,040 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -28 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CHKP)/2.48
• (CHH)/2.29
• (CIFR)/-.25
• (CNA)/1.21
• (EL)/.51
• (FOXA)/2.08
• (KRYS)/1.79
• (MAR)/2.84
• (TEM)/-.09
• (TSEM)/1.07 

After the Close: 

• (AAPL)/1.99
• (BWXT)/1.18
• (CLX)/1.07
• (FN)/4.19
• (HNGE)/.58
• (JAZZ)/-4.05
• (LSCC)/.55
• (MTCH)/.71
• (ON)/.88
• (PLTR)/.41
• (ROKU)/.53
• (RIG)/.02
• (VRTX)/4.80
• (WMB)/.54 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to rise to 54.7 versus 54.5 in Sept.
• ISM Prices Paid for Oct. is estimated to fall to 77.5 versus 77.9 in Sept. 
• Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update and the Loan Officer survey could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Govt Cyberattack Warnings, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 +.5%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.8 +1.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .07 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.7 -1.2% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.1 -1.6% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 59.1 -3.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.1 +1.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.9 +.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.5 -2.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +1.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(261 of 500 reporting) +25.2% -12.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 413.45 +.38:  Growth Rate +26.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.41% +2.0 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +53.3% -446.5 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,097.42 +.96: Growth Rate +63.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.6 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 unch.
• US Yield Curve 33.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 98.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.7% -.2%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.2% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.97% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 -9.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 58.6% (+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 45.2%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +49 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -144 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -10 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +148 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -4.2% 2) Gold & Silver -3.7% 3) AI Innovation -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMZN, TTMI, DMC, PSLV, DBVT, NMRK, CSQR, NEWT, RDDT, FN, EDU, ORCL, PBI, TT, CRWV, PBI, OLED, CCS, STRZ, EGO, TWLO, KBR, BWA, BAX, FTI, WULF, CCB, XP, PINS, KGC, NVCR, RSI, HTO, NSP, TNET, APMD, PLXS, APMD, MYE, AGI, SCI, HONA, CAT, ALGM, MNRO, FTRE, FORM, GOOG, MRVL, PRLB, CMPR, ALKT, FTNT, SFM, ALNY and NOW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XRX 2) SHOE 3) AUR 4) CART 5) FTNT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAT 2) SFM 3) NOW 4) GOOG 5) HONA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) ARKK 3) KRE 4) XBI 5) LIT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Defense +3.4% 2) Pharma +3.0% 3) Gambling +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KPLT, GKOS, CROX, PRCH, PURR, MAX, CVNA, GEN, MESO, FTAI, BOOT, UPBD, NCLH, DFIN, HII, DRS, INSM, FCN, TXT, HAPN, FLS, AVEX, CHDN, BLDR, BBW, EPAC, GVA, CMG, MIR, ROAD, ARHS, PWP, IPX, ATI, BC, RAPP, JMKE, REPL, FWRG, CAKE, IPX, LXU, HAWK, DVA, LHX, EHC, LNG, STNG, CRS, TPG, NRDS, ARLO, TENB, LLY, KTOS, BAND, OWL, H, OSW, CSL, FIGS, LION, ICE, VMC, TEX, AGCO, WHR, MLM, ATEC, CSTL, JLL, AWI, VKTX, DVA, KIDS, FER, LFUS, ECHO, MA, GNK, IP, TXRH, DASH, GNK, MA, TXRH, FND, SIRI, WCC, EBAY, AM, QNST, HAYW, UFPI, DB, BA, AMRZ, WEC, PWR, EG, CLPT, CWK, FVR, SAIA, REAL, KLAR, SAFE, REAL, TYL, GM and WMG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XYL 2) ANGX 3) SOLS 4) BHC 5) SYK 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GKOS 2) PRCH 3) TDOC 4) GEN 5) CROX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) IBB 4) IGV 5) XLK

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +14.5% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 -1.8
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 67.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 +6.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$213.4M
  
• 59 New 52-Week Highs, 84 New Lows
• 44.4% (+4.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 63.8 +6.0

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 7.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 6.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 7.0% -6.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 4.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 18.0%-1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 29.0% +8.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 129.5 +.5%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 67.0 +2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 45.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 443.75 +8.25 basis points
• France Sovereign CDS 92.5 -3.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 265.5 -1.0%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.6 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 35.0 (FEAR) unch.
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -20.9%
• Vix 16.3 -3.6%
• Total Put/Call .86 unch.