Tuesday, July 07, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @visionergeo
  • @TheSCIF
  • @LeadingReport
  • @HealthRangerCongress 
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @TheInsidePaper
  • @jackprandelli
  • @PolyMarket
  • @MidwesternDoc
  • @HotSpotHotSpot
  • @JackUnheard
  • @drawandstrike
  • @realstewpeters
  • @TMZ
  • @ksorbs
  • The Presbyterian Church (USA), the largest Presbyterian denomination in the United States, has passed a measure expressing support for body-deforming sex-change surgeries for youth exhibiting gender dysphoria. Wow....the church has lost its compass.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +.75 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 36.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.35 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
  • Crude Oil 72.05/bbl. +2.4% 
  • Gold 4,114.50 USD/t oz. -1.0%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.41 +.07%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.70 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 125.6 +.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.55% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% -11.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 unch.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.08%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.03%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Worries, Higher Long-Term Rates, Sector Rotation, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.3 +1.0%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.82 -.2% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.27 -3.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.5 +.8%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 140.2 +.7%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 56.3 +1.2% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.4 +3.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.7 +1.0
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.60 +.2
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.7 -.9
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(15 of 500 reporting) +174.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 372.53 +n/a:  Growth Rate +26.7% +n/a, P/E 20.2 -n/a
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.63% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,226.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 898.96 +n/a: Growth Rate +73.4% +n/a, P/E 19.2 -n/a 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +3.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 36.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.63 -.01%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.35 euros/megawatt-hour +7.4%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.5% unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.4% +.2 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.52% +5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.39 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 47.9% (+1.7 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 46.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -66 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -220 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +2 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +230 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my financial//biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.9%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -5.0% 2) AI Innovation -4.7% 3) Semis -4.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • METC, CCXI, KLRA, LFUS, PENG, CHRN, IQMX, FPS, WULF, ESI, SOLS, GNRC, SHAZ, UCTT and RIVN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SOLS 2) ALL 3) OPTU 4) KIE 5) VRNS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RIVN 2) WDC 3) ABTC 4) LCID 5) VERI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) FXL 2) XLC 3) SOXX 4) COPX 5) XOP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services +4.0% 2) Pharma +1.7% 3) Biotech +1.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CRNX, AGIO, MAAS, RPD, EVMN, RAPP, TRVI, IMMX, BAND, NIQ, FIG, NET, VRDN, MGTX, ALMS, KURA, DOCN, SEPN, BLZE, ANAB, STRO, VERA, IRON, VKTX, AKTS, AVPT, GLUE, RARE, NTNX, FRSH, MPLT, NAVN, TENX, RLAY, ORKA, ARQT, PTGX, ADBE, TTAN, DYN, BRBR, PAYP, NKTR, CLDX, OFRM, ZVRA, PLTR, IONS, ELVN, SHEL, AXON, PHVS, APPF, LINE and RIGL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) RSP 2) SOLS 3) VERA 4) CART 5) FLR 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AGIO 2) SKIN 3) DOCN 4) JNJ 5) AMPG
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) DRAM 2) XLF 3) XLY 4) XLB 5) IGV
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (HELE)/.02
After the Close: 
  • (AZZ)/1.69
  • (LEVI)/.24
  • (PSMT)/1.32 
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for May is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +2.0% gain in April. 

2:00 pm EST

  • The FOMC Meeting Minutes for June 17th. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,867,750 barrels versus a -3,775,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,324,250 barrels versus a -2,333,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +907,750 barrels versus a +2,843,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.1% versus a +.5% gain prior. 

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit for May is estimated to fall to $17.5B versus $20.733B in April. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for July, Bernstein Retail Forum and the (AVAV) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -10.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.7 +1.6
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
  • 45.4% of Issues Advancing, 52.5% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .79 -54.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$106.2M
  • 115 New 52-Week Highs, 20 New Lows
  • 57.5% (-1.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 63.6 +.3
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 4.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31st 7.0% -7.0 percentage points
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 2.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 1.0% unch.
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 12.0% -2.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 125.0 +.2%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 57.0 -6.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 73.0% n/a
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 453.75 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.5 -2.0%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 159.2 -1.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 8.8 +.3%
  • Vix 15.8 +1.7%
  • Total Put/Call .87 +8.8%