Weekly Scoreboard*

 

S&P 500 6,830.0 -1.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 49,409.0 -1.4%

• NASDAQ 22,512.0 -2.3%

• Russell 2000 2,646.3 -.8%

• NYSE FANG+ 14,220.8 -2.8%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 252.2 -3.0%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 30.5 -3.0%

• Wilshire 5000 67,538.1 -1.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,506.0 -2.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,199.4.0 -.4%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 998.6 +1.3%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 246.5 -4.6%
  

• NYSE Technology 7,050.3 -1.0%

• Transports 19,315.3 -2.8%

• Utilities 1,167.0 +7.1%

• MSCI Europe Banks 118.7 -2.9%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 60.8 +1.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 253.9 -.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 131.5 +.1%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 605,056 +.7%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -3.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 973 +1,011

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -14.8 -22.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 124,565 +28.4%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,091,314 +2.7%

• Total Put/Call .86 -2.3%

• OEX Put/Call .82 +13.7%

• ISE Sentiment 130.0 +13.2%

• NYSE Arms 1.44 +30.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 98.8 -2.0%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 -8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.62 +10.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 20.4 +10.1%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.25 -33.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 16.0 +5.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.94 +1.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 unch.

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,078.0 +.1%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  80.6 -4.3

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.774 Trillion -.3%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$6.093 Million

• AAII % Bulls 38.5 -3.0%

• AAII % Bears 38.1 +31.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 41.0 (FEAR) -3.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 306.5 -1.0%

• Crude Oil 62.8/bbl. -.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 190.6 -2.0%

• Natural Gas 3.23 -4.4%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 70.0 USD/Megawatt -1.1% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour -7.8%
  

• Heating Oil 238.0 -.8% 
• Newcastle Coal 119.5 (1,000/metric ton) +1.8%

• Gold 5,030.5 +1.6%
• Silver 77.2 +.2%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 167.4 -.7%

• Copper 578.6 -1.3%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 374.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 22,325.0 USD/metric tonne +.2%

• CME Lumber 598.0 +2.1%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,290.5 -.1%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% -.5 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.3 +3.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 +22.2%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 492.9 -7.5%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.19 -39.2%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(369 of 500 reporting) +12.2% -1.4 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.48 +1.05:  Growth Rate +18.3% +.4 percentage point, P/E 21.5 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.46% -11.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 503.28 +2.03: Growth Rate +22.5% +.5 percentage point, P/E 28.4 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.6 -3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.9 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.5 +6.1 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 9.8%(-8.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 90.2%(+8.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 3/18/26

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.575 Trillion +.3%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.615 Billion +6.6%

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.2% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% -20.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.84% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.37 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -4.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.5 +.5 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.5 -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.75 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.8 +2.7%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 110.0 -36.0%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 522.0 +12.1% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 246.0 -5.0 
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 55.1 +2.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 126.4 +.1%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 103.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 591.0 -13.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,430.5B +1.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 219,500 +3.3%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 45.3 n/a
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.19% -3.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 329,900 -.3%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.5% +.2 percentage point
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +15.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Box Office Weekly Gross $108.9M +41.9%

• Nationwide Gas $2.94/gallon +.04/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,095.0 +8.9%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,932.6/40 ft Box -1.3%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,088.1 -3.0%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 75.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 112.8 +3.8%

• Rail Freight Carloads 278,446 +14.5%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,701,700 +44.2% 
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 46.0% +5.0 percentage points

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Value +.4%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -1.5%

Leading Sectors

• Utilities +7.5%

• Gold & Silver +7.1%
• Telecom +6.8%

• Electrification +5.9%
  

• Homebuilding +3.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Banks -5.6%

• Education -5.8%
  

• Airlines -6.7%

• Gambling -9.8%
  

• Computer Services -12.1%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (44)

• RIVN, TPH, MGA, MITK, COIN, FSLY, SEI, EVMN, CLMT, PCOR, AMAT, HASI, PSIX, HUBS, ROKU, ATEX, PEGA, VAL, TOST, VRTX, RELX, LINC, NE, CART, AKAM, CIM, TMHC, IR, SKM, ABNB, ANET, RAMP, IRDM, RYN, ATMU, CEPT, NSSC, ASGI, ENB, EPD, ETR, STNG and GNRC

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (32)

• U, AIP, CPA, CSTM, SPSC, STLD, DB, ITRI, STZ, EXPE, BAP, RDN, HTGC, RDN, NCLH, KNSL, CIGI, AMKR, CENX, YELP, BIO, AORT, FLO, RYAN, RARE, RYAN, CALY, TRUP, DKNG, FBIN, PINS and BFAM

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Consumer Inflation Deceleration, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +720 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/transport/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CNH)/.11
• (ET)/.37
• (FLR)/.34
• (GPC)/1.82
• (ITRI)/2.19
• (LH)/3.94
• (LDOS)/2.61
• (LPX)/-.01
• (MDT)/1.34
• (VMI)/4.96
• (VMC)/2.11 

After the Close: 

• (ANDE)/1.56
• (CDNS)/1.91
• (CZR)/-.15
• (DVN)/.80
• (EQT)/.75
• (FE)/.54
• (HL)/.18
• (LZB)/.59
• (PANW)/.94
• (PBI)/.37
• (RBA)/.98
• (TOL)/2.11 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 8.7 versus 7.7 in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, ADP weekly employment change, Citbank Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference, (RDWR) investor day and the Barclays Industrial Select Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25%. to -.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%. 
• Gold 4,994.0 USD/t oz. +.93%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.98 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.26 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.0 -1.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.11% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.45% +1.0 basis point. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.4 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.32%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.10%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.15%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Less Economic/Earnings Outlook Optimism, Crypto Weakness, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.4 +2.0%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.09 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.3 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.5 +.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 -.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.1 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.8 unch.

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.7 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(356 of 500 reporting) +12.5% -.5 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 318.22 +.28:  Growth Rate +18.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.48% -4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 503.08 +.90: Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.4 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 +2.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 63.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.5 -1.8% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1% -.7 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.7% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.17% +3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.43 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 75.0% (-3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 49.0%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +620 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -23 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/transport sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -5.2% 2) Computer Services -4.5% 3) Alt Energy -3.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HIW, JKHY, BXP, PHR, QSR, NICE, QTWO, FVRR, STEP, JBHT, PLMR, CHKP, NMRK, ARMK, CTSH, PLSE, GWW, MAN, SCI, MT, WERN, ODD, PUK, ROKU, LOGI, IQV, SLG, SPOT, KD, CRL, J, FWRD, SHOP, UPST, WCN, HUBG, WCN, TFII, INFY, HOOD, KVYO, EPAM, XYZ, LEU, U, STN, ROL, TDC, JLL, UPWK, UPB, CSCO, TTEK, INSP, TYL, CLF, NP, RBA, CWK, TRIP, GEO, BRKR, EXPD, AEHR, BAX, APP, MICC, LSTR, CHRW, RXO, QDEL and ICLR

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AVTR 2) AR 3) CWAN 4) GRAB 5) FBTC

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) ICLR 2) CHRW 3) BAX 4) RXO 5) LSTR

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLV 2) KRE 3) XLK 4) KWEB 5) GDXJ

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume