Wednesday, August 26, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC  
  • @WallStEngine
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 unch. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 35.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%. 
  • Crude Oil 81.60/bbl. -.8% 
  • Gold 4,696.70 USD/t oz. +.94%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.35 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.41 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.6 -.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.65% +1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 4.07% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.26%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.45%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.83%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on US Economic/Earnings Optimism, Falling Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Technical Buying, Tech/Industrial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.2 -.9%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.7 -.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .27 -2.0 basis points
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.21 -6.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.3 -.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 137.3 +.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 53.9 -.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.1 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 -2.5
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 24.3 +1.6
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 89.9 -.9
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.2 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(470 of 500 reporting) +49.6% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.06 +.14:  Growth Rate +33.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +138.4% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 953.28 +.45: Growth Rate +83.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.2 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.20 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 44.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.3 -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 66.0 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.7 +.7% percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.6% +60.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.66% +4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 48.3% (+2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.4%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -260 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
  • KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +4 open in South Korea 
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +40 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my financial/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.1% 2) Pharma -1.8% 3) Computer Services -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TRMD, BSX, INTU, ZM, TNK, OKLO, MRNA, DY, JKS, SYRE and GENB
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ANF 2) NVAX 3) CG 4) BURL 5) DKS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) BSX 2) GDDY 3) AARD 4) GUTS 5) HTZ
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) DRAM 3) AIRR 4) IGV 5) XOP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +1.5% 2) Healthcare Providers +1.2% 3) Cyber Security +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ANF, BHVN, BZ, GRRR, WBTN, PRE, SMMT, SMTC, ERAS, URBN, BBWI, SEDG, TTMI, GAP, ZYME, P, AEO, DTM, WMB, SRRK, VCTR, SJM, KMI, DKS, LECO and CRK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ANF 2) HONA 3) BMNU 4) DKS 5) VERA 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ANF 2) SMMT 3) SEDG 4) WMB 5) ZYME
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) XLI 4) IYM 5) BAI
Charts: 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BBY)/1.39
  • (BURL)/2.19
  • (CSIQ)/-.19
  • (DG)/2.01
  • (DLTR)/1.15
  • (HQY)/1.19
  • (HRL)/.35
  • (TD)/1.78 
After the Close: 
  • (AFRM)/.35
  • (ADSK)/3.12
  • (GAP)/.48
  • (MRVL)/.93
  • (PD)/.31
  • (RBRK)/.04
  • (S)/.07
  • (ULTA)/6.20
  • (WDAY)/2.61 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$100.5B versus -$101.5B in June.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in June.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
  • Initial Jobless Claims is estimated to rise to 208K versus 206K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1794K versus 1799K prior. 

11:00 am EST

  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index for August is estimated to rise to 10.0 versus 9.0 in July. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Jackson Hole Symposium, 7Y T-Note auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (SHAZ) annual meeting, (GNTX) investor day and the (DOCS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -23.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 17.7 +.7
  • 6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
  • 47.2% of Issues Advancing, 50.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.15 -8.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$3.8M
  • 41 New 52-Week Highs, 22 New Lows
  • 61.3% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 63.8 +2.5
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 8.0% unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30th 12.0% +5.0 percentage points
  • Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 4.0% unch.
  • Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30th 2.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 16.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30th 38.0% -4.0 percentage points
Other
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.4 +.9%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 63.0 +9.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 458.5 -2.25 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 269.1 +.1%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 148.6 -.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 55.0 (moved to NEUTRAL from GREED) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.4 +12.8%
  • Vix 15.5% +.4%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -2.4%