Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                

Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:   
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 138.75 -5.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 77.75 -6.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.6 +.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  47.8 +.14%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.59 -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.1 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.36%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.01%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (DCI)/.70
  • (FRO)/.38
  • (HRL)/.50
  • (LESL)/.31
  • (WOOF)/.16
  • (RY)/2.66
  • (TITN)/1.16
After the Close:
  • (BOX)/.30
  • (FIVE)/.14
  • (LZB)/.85
  • (NTNX)/-.12
  • (OKTA)/-.24
  • (PVH)/2.18 
  • (CRM)/1.22
  • (SMTC)/.63
  • (SNOW)/.05
  • (SPLK)/.25
  • (SNPS)/1.84
  • (VSCO)/.23
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for Nov. is estimated to fall to 200K versus 239K in Oct.
8:30 am EST
  • Second 3Q GDP readings. 
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for Oct. is estimated at -$90.6B versus -$92.2B in Sept.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in Sept.
9:45 am EST
  • MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 45.2 in Oct.
 10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to fall -5.7% versus a -10.2% decline in Sept.
  • JOLTS Job Openings for Oct. is estimated to fall to 10250K versus 10717K in Sept.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,907,570 barrels versus a -3,690,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,737,000 barrels versus a +3,058,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,430,500 barrels versus a +1,718,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.18% versus a +1.0% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • (TECH) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Cook speaking, China Non-Manufacturing PMI report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, CSFB Industrials, Barclays Automotive/Mobility Conference, (LESL) investor day, (RIO) investor seminar and the (NVS) investor day could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Worries, US Economic Data, Tech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume:  Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.1 -.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.6 +1.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.9 -.33%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 42.5 -.8% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 116.0 +42.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -2.9%
  • NYSE Arms .54 -70.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 81.60 +.11%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 377.64 -.6%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 360.0 +11.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.44 -1.6% 
  • Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 447.63 +27.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 190.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.63 -.22%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 237.3 -1.92%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 +1.5%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.0 basis points unch.
  • TED Spread 42.25 basis points -5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -35.75 basis points +7.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  145.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 127.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 1.19 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.58 +.26%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -74.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.35%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 129.25 euros/megawatt-hour +4.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.0 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.9 -2.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.9 -.5 point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.75 +.10:  Growth Rate +11.1% unch., P/E 17.2 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.58 +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.26% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +5.02% unch.: CPI YoY +7.49% -6.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Feb. 1st FOMC meeting: 50.8%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for March 22nd meeting: 39.7%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(+.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -85.5%(-0.0 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -73 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +52 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +59 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/industrial sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Utilities -1.0% 2) Software -.9% 3) Construction -.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AXSM, MITK, PBF, ZIP, AMCX, MRTX, MIRM, AZPN, SYM, HIBB, CINC and ENFN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BKLN 2) TOL 3) IEP 4) THC 5) KRE
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HIBB 2) OPEN 3) CC 4) HOOD 5) UNH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Steel +3.3% 2) Gold & Silver +2.2 3) Oil Service +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GEO, CRNC, ARWR, CEIX, NXST, NUS, RVMD, CTLT and NVAX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FIS 2) GRWG 3) FEZ 4) SABR 5) REI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CTRN 2) BILI 3) FUTU 4) NXST 5) YY

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -18.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
  • 60.9% of Issues Advancing, 34.5% Declining
  • 59 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
  • 43.1%(+2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 -3.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.3 +1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,394.5 -.7%
  • Vix 22.2 -.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 -1.9%
  • TRIN/Arms .54 -70.8% 

Monday, November 28, 2022

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:    
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 144.25 -3.75 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 84.0 -2.25 basis points. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.20 USD/Metric Tonne +2.9%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.49 +.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  47.3 +1.0%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.61 +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.5 +.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (HIBB)/2.49
  • (SJR)/.36
After the Close:
  • (CRWD)/.32
  • (HPE)/.57
  • (INTU)/1.20
  • (NTAP)/1.33
  • (WDAY)/.84
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.2% versus a -.7% decline in Aug.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Sept. is estimated to fall -1.2% versus a -1.32% in Aug.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Sept. is estimated to rise +10.5% versus a +13.1% gain in Aug.
10:00 am EST
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence for Nov. is estimated fall to 100.0 versus 102.5 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • (TECH) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, US weekly retail sales reports, Citi Basic Materials Conference, Citi Chemical Conference, Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference, (EMR) investor conference, (UNH) investor conference and the Wells Fargo TMT Summit could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.