Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.8 -1.2%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .19 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.08 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.9 -2.7%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 126.5 +.6%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.4 unch.

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.4 +2.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 26.3 +1.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.8 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(392 of 500 reporting) +12.2% +.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 319.25 +.32:  Growth Rate +18.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.4% +7.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 505.23 +.59: Growth Rate +23.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.6 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .56 +27.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 62.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.0 basis point 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.1 +2.3% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.3% -.2 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.6% -10.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.08% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.44 +10.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 78.5% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 51.5%(+1.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +320 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +112 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/transport/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.4% 2) REITs -1.2% 3) Telecom -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SKM, POR, BSM, EYPT, CHCT, GPC, TFII, WPC, ATEX, PUMP, GSHD, MKSI, HRMY, GTY, PANW, RYI, ALGM, SEDG, MCY, FVRR, OSW, COCO, VNET, HALO, DINO, VECO and ACLS

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EBAY 2) XBI 3) INFY 4) EQT 5) CDNS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SMWB 2) FVRR 3) ACLS 4) PANW 5) APLD

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) EUFN 3) IXJ 4) IXC 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.1%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gambling +3.6% 2) Computer Hardware +2.1% 3) Oil Service +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HYMC, TCMD, LBTYA, GLBE, GPN, DFIN, CZR, ISSC, HUN, WING, GKOS, AMRZ, WTTR, PENN, ONDS, GRMN, QURE, UPWK, PBI, CSTM, CDNS, SHOP, RSI, RSI, CWK, RIOT, LASR, W, CBRE, KNTK, JLL, DASH, FIG, TEM, SM, CIGI, WDC, PZZA, HCKT, FRO, BBW, PSLV, CBZ, ESI, BAX, HL, MCO, BLKB, KRMN, OVV, CLH, APA, APPN, LDOS, TNL, TWST, IFS, PINS, MRNA, ASC, DAN, FLO, PRG, FLOC, GILT, PLSE, INTU, PODD, FDS, FLR, PRG, MNDY, CPNG, MEDP, LPG, ARMN, KOD, ITRI, HRL, RELY, GNK, Q, CNK, YELP, RXO, CEPU, ITRI, NBR, VAC, EQNR, CVNA, BFAM, SPOT, NICE, BFAM, CUZ, NAMS, EBAY, BKNG, PLTR, CAKE, ETSY, DOX and G

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CMPS 2) CF 3) MLTX 4) DOC 5) ATOM 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TCMD 2) GPN 3) GKOS 4) UPWK 5) GRMN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) IYZ 3) XLI 4) IGV 5) XLB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CHH)/1.54
• (ETSY)/.85
• (LMND)/-.39
• (POOL)/.97
• (PWR)/3.02
• (SO)/.56
• (TECK)/.74
• (VC)/2.09
• (WMT)/.73
• (W)/.69
• (YETI)/.88 
• (BABA)/11.62 
• (DE)/2.02
• (SATS)/-.73
• (METC)/-.25 

After the Close: 

• (AKAM)/1.76
• (FIX)/6.75
• (ED)/.86
• (CPRT)/.39
• (DBX)/.67
• (GH)/-.77
• (NEM)/2.05
• (RNG)/1.14
• (SFM)/.89
• (RIG)/.08
• (OLED)/1.28
• (VICR)/.44

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$55.5B versus -$56.8B in Nov. 
• The Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$86.0B.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in Nov. 
• Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2%
• The Philly Fed Business Outlook for Feb. is estimated to fall to 7.8 versus 12.6 in Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 225K versus 227K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1860K versus 1862K prior.

10:00 am EST

• The Leading Index for Dec. is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.3% decline in Nov.
• Pending Home Sales MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -9.3% decline in Dec. 

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +673,750 barrels versus a +8,530,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -366,000 barrels versus a +1,160,000 barrel gain prior. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,785,500 barrels versus a -2,703,000 barrel decline prior. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +2.78% versus a -1.1% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (RJF) annual meeting and the Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -9.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +1.9
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 65.1% of Issues Advancing, 32.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .87 -34.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$19.5M
  
• 158 New 52-Week Highs, 27 New Lows
• 69.1% (+2.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.3 +6.3

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 26.0% +1.0 percentage point
• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 48.0% +12.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US strikes Iran by March 15th 55.0% +27.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.6 +1.5%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 516.0 -12.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 252.3 +2.0%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 136.4 +.9%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) +7.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.0 -31.8%
  
• Vix 18.7 -7.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -16.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• Japanese companies including SoftBank, Toshiba and Hitachi have expressed interest in participating in a US gas project announced by President Donald Trump, trade minister Ryosei Akazawa told reporters on Wednesday.
• The US has developed a critical minerals price floor system that it’s pitching to allies as the Trump administration and more than 50 countries look to reduce dependence on China.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.

• @ZeroHedge

• Winter Storm Fern Proved Coal Is Still the Power Grid's Reliable Backbone.
• Hi @katiecouric, can you remind the world what your "cloning" conversation with Jeff Epstein and Prince Andrew was about? (pic).    
• Great reporting by WSJ on jet engines being used to power data centers! Boom Supersonic is not the only company in this market. - FTAI Aviation to sell a modified version of Boeing 737 engine for data centers this year. - 30-45 days to convert a jet engine for power turbine use. - Main changes needed: 1) replace fuel nozzles to use gas instead of jet fuel and 2) replace the large fan in front of the flight engine with smaller fan. - Interestingly: both FTAI & Boom say their turbines can also be used in combined cycle config. - Jet engines with few years of remaining life can be converted to power turbines for many additional years. - If just a third of retiring jet engines every year get converted to power turbines that would be 13 GW of excess capacity per year (!). - FTAI expects to deliver 2.5 GW/year (for context ~20 GW/year for GE/Siemens). 
• "Game On!": High Schoolers To Be Tested On Nation's Founding In National Competition Marking America's 250th.
• BREAKING: Epstein was invited to gatherings with a dozen members of Congress years after his initial arrest, documents reveal. (pic)
• New York City's budget is bigger than Florida's, and 40% of it is going to the Department of Education, even though enrollment in NYC public schools fell by nearly 200,000 students from 2018-19 to 2023-2024 and is at the lowest level overall since the 1950's. Incredible stuff.
• Zelensky Slams Trump Pressure As 'Not Fair' - Says Ukrainian Public Won't Let Him Cede Land.
• And they’re off.. Roundhill’s filing on Friday sets off a prediction markets ETF race. GraniteShares and Bitwise jumping in.
• China's Unprecedented Oil Stockpiling Sparks Questions If Beijing Is Preparing For War.
• *SANDISK HOLDER WESTERN DIGITAL TO OFFER $3.09B OF SHARES.
• Apple skipped the AI spending spree. What if that’s about to pay off? 
• Crude & Crypto Crack, Mega-Cap Tech Bid Back As AI Continues To Crush Coders.

• @CNBC

• Meta expands Nvidia deal to use millions of AI chips in data center build-out, including standalone CPUs. 
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Stock futures are little changed as traders await Fed meeting minutes: Live updates.
• Third Point opens positions in Spotify and Chipotle, doubles stake in train stock Union Pacific.
• Ackman's Pershing Square bet big on Amazon in fourth quarter.
• Palo Alto Networks slumps 6% as third quarter profit guidance falls short.
• David Tepper adds to big Micron position, gets bullish on Korean stocks.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Palo Alto Networks, Toll Brothers, Caesars Entertainment & more.       
• We may be on the cusp of a new industrial cycle, says Bank of America. How to play it — and score attractive yields. 

• @MarioNawful

• We need to pay more attention to Epstein's Zorro ranch in New Mexico... Noam Chomsky called him "a highly valued friend" and visited Zorro Ranch multiple times after his conviction. Woody Allen was photographed there with Soon-Yi. Prince Andrew showed up in 2001, the same trip where Virginia Giuffre says she was trafficked. 10,000 acres, a private airstrip, victim reports going back to 1996, and somehow not a single federal search warrant was ever executed on the property. New Mexico just approved a truth commission with subpoena power and $2.5M to dig into what everyone else refused to touch. (video)
• 60 VICTIMS, EPSTEIN TIES, AND A JUDGE BLOCKING FILE RELEASES: THE TRIAL NO ONE IS COVERING. Three brothers, Oren, Alon, and Tal Alexander, are currently on trial in Manhattan federal court on sex trafficking charges that carry up to life in prison. Prosecutors have reportedly spoken to over 60 individuals who allege they were drugged and raped by at least one of the brothers. The Alexander brothers, described as prominent ultra-luxury real estate figures with Israeli-American ties, were indicted by the SDNY in December 2024. A superseding indictment filed in May 2025 allegedly added a sex trafficking of a minor count involving a victim reportedly as young as 16. Additional state charges were filed separately in Miami-Dade County. Where it gets even more interesting is the Epstein connection... 

• @LaraLogan

• Here what you need to know - the view from those concerned about who is still running things: “It seems as if the DOJ, or certain elements within the DOJ, want to continue to delay justice with the hopes that midterms will be stolen for the Democrats and Trump‘s agenda jammed up through 2028. “Most of DOJ is doing that. Not certain elements…MOST! They hate Trump. There’s been effectively zero reform at DOJ or in the FBI.”

• @KamVTV

• If the media covered the Epstein files the way they’re obsessing over the Nancy Guthrie case, the country would be staring straight at the names, the connections, and the filth at the top. But they won’t. Because protecting the powerful is the priority. Distraction is the strategy. Outrage is curated. They’ll camp outside a courthouse for ratings, but when it comes to exposing elite degenerates who are abusing children? Silence. Spin. Deflection. The American people aren’t stupid. We see the shield. And it’s getting thinner by the day.

• @GenFlynn

• SITREP: The Epstein Affair (Current Status). What is being released right now is not transparency. It is controlled disclosure. Fragments. Selective timing. Curated narratives. Carefully engineered confusion. Enough to distract. However, behind the scenes, coordinated efforts are underway to sanitize relationships and rewrite history. Long-standing connections are being rebranded as “professional.” Years of documented overlap are being dismissed as a coincidence.” Excuses are being manufactured in real time. They want you debating intent instead of examining evidence. They want emotion instead of investigation. They want fatigue instead of focus. Let’s be clear: proximity is not accidental. Repetition is not random. And patterns do not form without purpose. This is reputation management. This is NOT accountability. This is damage control.

• @RenzTom

• Trump is planning big action on election fraud before the midterms. He'll still lose unless we see accountability and GOP action. As I've said: - Fire Susie Wiles. - Fire Pam Bondi. - Fire Kash Patel. - Fire Howard Lutnick. - Fire anyone else closely tied to Epstein. - Arrest and prosecute the COVID criminals, including Bill Gates and Fauci. - Arrest and prosecute the DOJ crooks that abused their power as J6, COVID, past elections, going after the Trump family, etc. - Free Tina Peters. Win the midterms big. Or don't, lose the midterms, get impeached, and watch the country burn.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Hillary Clinton now claims there are no links between Jeffrey Epstein, his child trafficking network, and the Clinton family. Clinton says her husband took some rides on his planes for “charitable work.” Clinton says they are not at the heart of the Epstein network and that people should focus somewhere else. “We have no links.” “I don’t recall ever meeting him.” (video)

• @WarClandestine

• Can you imagine if the shoe was on the other foot, and Trump was in these photos instead of Clinton? The world would stop, the MSM would have wall-to-wall coverage 24/7, and the Dems would be in an all out frenzy. Where’s the outrage for Slick Willy? Why has no one asked Hillary about this? Why haven’t we seen any backlash? They are ignoring it. A former President of the United States, in a jacuzzi, with an Epstein victim, and on Epstein’s plane, and on his island… and the Left are just not interested in it whatsoever. This proves it was never about justice or the victims for the Left. They just wanted to get Trump. (pic)

• @RealSLokhova

• Obama's lawyer/fixer Kathy Ruemmler emailed with Epstein over 11 THOUSAND times. Why silence from Obama who, as Epstein wrote, LOVES KATHY?

• @KobeissiLetter

• A tech stock short-squeeze is coming: Short interest in the technology sector ETF, $XLK, is up to a 1.8%, the highest in at least 6 years. This percentage has DOUBLED over the last few weeks. Furthermore, on Wednesday, investors shorted over 58 million Microsoft, $MSFT, shares, representing ~0.8% of its free float, near the high end of its range over the last 5 years. Salesforce, $CRM, has ~18 million shares sold short, or ~1.9% of its free float, its 100th percentile over the last few years. All while short interest in the software ETF, $IGV, spiked to ~19% last week, near the highest on record. Short exposure is hitting multi-year highs. (graph)

• @KariLake

• Elections in America are theater, laced with fraud, and anybody who draws attention to that fraud is labeled a conspiracy theorist. Election reform is the most important issue of our time.

• @RealAlexJones

• EXCLUSIVE: Avowed Leftist, Shannon Parry, EXPOSED As The Top FBI Official In Charge Of Redacting The Epstein Files. As 4th In Command At The FBI, Parry's Handling Of The Files Is Why You're Not Getting More Info On Epstein's Criminal Network! FBI Whistleblower Kyle Seraphin Breaks It All Down. (video)

• @HustleBitch_

• “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wrote a book saying that Anthony Fauci and I kill millions of children and make billions of dollars from vaccines.” “People can judge for themselves whether that’s correct or not.” Bill Gates is asking YOU to judge him and Fauci. (Bill allegedly visited Jeffrey Epstein’s island 36 times, reportedly caught an STD from ‘Russian girls,’ and suggested slipping Melinda Gates antibiotics without her knowledge). (video)

• @RealJamesWoods

• If you need proof that our elections are rigged by Democrats, just know that 25 states and DC are refusing to clean their voter roles. (video)

• @sayerjigmi

• This is the document that should end every "he just went to dinner parties" defense. On May 30, 2014, a UN diplomat forwarded Jeffrey Epstein a real-time intelligence briefing on: → Pakistani military strikes on North Waziristan → Pak Intel steering a Taliban breakaway faction → CIA halting drone strikes → The White House announcing the CIA would stop using vaccination campaigns as spy cover → Taliban reaction to both — classified All forwarded to jeevacation@gmail.com. A convicted child sex trafficker was receiving operational military and intelligence briefings that most members of Congress couldn't access. This is what a switchboard looks like. Not dinner parties. Infrastructure. (thread)
• BREAKING: Newly released Epstein documents show Jeffrey Epstein and Bill Gates's science advisor Boris Nikolic privately discussed how to overcome African resistance to vaccination campaigns. Their solution? "Candles and small mirrors, the same as the Americans did with their native Indians." In a March 2013 email, Epstein tells Nikolic he consulted his "best sources" — people whose conclusions he says are "very often better than the list of the various 26 three-letter agencies."

• @WallStMav

• THAT WAS FAST! Zohran Mamdani announces he will raise taxes on all New Yorkers. He wants a 10% increase in property taxes and to “raid” the city’s savings accounts. This is only the start. His communist wish list will require more tax increases. NYC and its residents will be bankrupt faster than originally thought.

• @nickshirleyy

• California is the breeding ground for voter fraud in America, as millions of people vote with no ID, month-long election processes, inaccurate voter rolls, dead people caught voting, even a dog successfully registered to vote, and voter verification is all based on your signature — not who you actually are. In this video, I go to locations from California’s public voter rolls from the Secretary of State, and not a single location could verify the voter rolls. - Irregularities in voter numbers per location - 30+ people registered to one mail store - Voters inaccurately aged at 125 years old. Without any voter ID and negligence from the state government to update their voter rolls, California’s one-party state has created a complex system where fraud is inevitable in their voting process. If you appreciate this video give it a like and share it around! (video)

• @VickieforNYC

• Leftist jury nullification is very real, and it’s going to destroy the last semblance of public trust in the social compact. This is happening in blue jurisdictions nationwide. If we can no longer trust juries to convict a gang member who executed a man in front of his children, we cease to have a constitutional means to persevere public order. Trust in the jury system is nothing less than the cornerstone of civil society, and the left is eagerly destroying it through identity politics and oppression theology. Once it’s gone, things will get very brutal very fast. (video)

• @RealLindellTV

• “YOU CAN’T LOOK AWAY FROM THIS.” It’s not just anger in the country right now. It’s betrayal. It’s the feeling that nothing is getting better and the elite and the swamp never face consequences. “You can’t read emails about 9-year-olds… 11-year-olds… and just look away from this.” “This is beyond a two-tiered system of justice"..."You don’t have a constitutional republic if there’s an untouchable elite.” (video)

• @Sadie_NC

• If you thought the last four years under Biden were bad, just wait. If they regain power, they’ll double down on every failed policy, and you’ll see lawfare, crushing regulations, and censorship like never before. Their goal is to make sure Republicans can never win another election. I only wish the GOP would recognize this and stop them while they still can. They’re not just coming for the right, they’re coming for the GOP too.

• @HollyKesler 

• Folks, take a look at this chilling announcement from so-called "faith leaders" in GA. They're gathering TOMORROW (Feb 18) outside the State Election Board meeting to issue veiled threats: If the board moves forward with ensuring election integrity, they “warn that” they'll "awaken a giant" and unleash "unprecedented mobilization" this November. This isn't faith—it's intimidation!

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%. 
• Gold 4,933.7 USD/t oz. +.6%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.25 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 100.1 +.04%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.06% +1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.41% unch. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by consumer and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.