Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • Reporter: Do you regret pulling out of the World Health Organization now with Hantavirus? TRUMP: No.. they got it all wrong with COVID. I was the one who said it came from Wuhan. They covered it up and are owned by China. (video)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @TheSCIF
  • @disclosetv
  • @RepLuna 
  • @HealthRanger
  • @SenseReceptor
  • @17QStorm
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 +.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 110.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%. 
  • Crude Oil 101.5/bbl. -.7% 
  • Gold 4,717.7 USD/t oz. +.67%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.70 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.47 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 121.9 +.4%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.46% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.86% +3.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 +.01%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.66%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Rising Inflation Expectations, Profit-Taking, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.8 +1.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.5 -.1% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .22 unch.
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.14 -1.0 basis point
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.9 +3.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.2 +.5%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 65.8 +4.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .7 -.1
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.9 +2.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.6 +4.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.2 +4.7
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.4 -.5
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(447 of 500 reporting) +25.2% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 354.06 +.38:  Growth Rate +27.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.42% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 855.99 +3.02: Growth Rate +116.2% +.8 percentage point, P/E 19.9 -.5 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.0 -17.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 46.5 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 185.6 +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.0% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 15.4% -1.6 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% +5.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.21 +12.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 95.6% (+.5 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 87.6%(-2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -510 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +150 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware -4.5% 2) AI Innovation -4.5% 3) Semis -4.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TRI, DLB, NXT, AMPH, BOOT, OSS, CDW, GSIT, IONQ, AGRO, ETOR, TOST, CRCL, RDY, QUIK, MU, PKX, BRSL, HIMX, VOD, PDFS, GILT, RGTI, CLSK, CDNL, ASYS, GILT, INTC, GTLB, ACM, BRUN, BLLN, LIFE, MXL, NVTS, HIMS, QCOM, INOD, ASTS, DFH, FLNC, HUBG, FORM, CBLL, CDRE, INBX, CAMT, HROW, DXYZ and PSIX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WEN 2) XP 3) PCVX 4) FLG 5) QUBT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SNBR 2) PSIX 3) ASTS 4) UA 5) VIA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) KRE 3) XLF 4) BUG 5) MISL

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value -.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment +2.6% 2) Pharma +2.1% 3) Healthcare Providers +2.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AMBQ, VSTS, PACS, AEVA, VPG, PLSE, EIKN, RAL, SIBN, VG, RVI, ZBRA, HLIO, SE, AGL, RIGL, INSM, NOVT, HALO, ARMK, QDEL, ALHC, EVTC, PRCT, APC, PLNT, SFL, LEGN, HUM, ENOV, OSCR, METC, ERO, ALKS, MDB, BTI, DSP, Q, QURE, STE, ROOT, PM, ASH, HII, POST, APH, GMAB, ONT, KRP, SONY, APH, TIGO, NATL, LQDA, ACIC, BAH, ALC, CGEM, SEPN, BBUC and SHAK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) INDA 2) DDD 3) PLNT 4) BTI 5) AZN 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AMBQ 2) WEN 3) SE 4) QUBT 5) ZBRA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XRT 3) XBI 4) GRID 5) PSI
Charts:

 

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BABA)/6.14
  • (BIRK)/.59
  • (TSEM)/.56
  • (VSH)/.02 
  • (DOX)/1.77 
After the Close: 
  • (CSCO)/1.03
  • (DOCS)/.28
  • (JACK)/.74
  • (STAA)/.03
  • (STUB)/.01
  • (TNK)/3.54
  • (USAR)/-.13 
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • PPI Final Demand MoM for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in March.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.1% gain in March.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,962,600 barrels versus a -2,313,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -2,756,200 barrels versus a -2,504,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,251,400 barrels versus a -1,294,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise +1.18% versus a +.5% gain prior. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Collins speaking, Fed'd Kashkari speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, IEA monthly report, OPEC monthly report, Cleveland CPI MoM for April, Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI for May, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Needham Tech/Media/Consumer Conference, BofA Healthcare Conference, (SPG) annual meeting, (PSX) annual meeting, (FSLR) annual meeting, (AMD) annual meeting, (INTC) annual meeting, (AKAM) annual meeting, (SO) annual meeting, (KMI) annual meeting, (BROS) annual meeting, (EQIX) annual meeting, (SWKS) annual meeting, (VIK) annual meeting and the BMO Farm to Market Chemicals Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.7 -5.4
  • 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
  • 30.3% of Issues Advancing, 67.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .73 -37.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$28.7M
  • 44 New 52-Week Highs, 73 New Lows
  • 54.2% (-2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.8 -2.5
Polymarket: 
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% unch.
  • Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May 31st 26.0% +1.0 percentage points
  • US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 36.0% -6.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 28.0% unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 120.0 +1.1%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 85.0% unch.
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 462.75 +6.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 255.4 -1.6%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.1 -1.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 65.0 (GREED) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.6 -8.3%
  • Vix 18.6 +1.3%
  • Total Put/Call .91 +16.7%