Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Mideast War De-Escalation, Oil Decline, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Consumer Discretionary/Medical Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.0 -1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.4 +1.0% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .31 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.02 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 56.1 -1.9%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 146.8 -.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 63.25 -4.5% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 +.5
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 91.6 +.1

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 48.1 -9.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 49.5 +5.8

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.6 -3.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(134 of 500 reporting) +69.6% -5.0 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 380.40 +3.33:  Growth Rate +29.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 19.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.96% +26.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +329.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 919.40 +7.82: Growth Rate +77.3% +1.5 percentage points, P/E 18.4 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -8.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.8 euros/megawatt-hour -10.7%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.4% +1.0 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +1.6% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.64% -3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.80 -13.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for September 29th FOMC meeting: 55.1% (-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th meeting: 44.4%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -840 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -64 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -56 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +188 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.9%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Semis -3.8% 2) AI Innovation -3.5% 3) Road & Rail -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DEC, CBRL, CVE, SEI, GEV, FEIM, BOH, GNRC, MESO, BLSH, SLS, SCHL, CHRW, ASML, PUMP, RXO, AMKR, SHAZ, VG, UCTT, MXL, SIMO, SNDK, BRUN, LEGN, VCX and MPLT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XLC 2) WOLF 3) LBTYA 4) FIGR 5) CAPR

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SNDK 2) WDC 3) LEGN 4) OXY 5) HUBG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) XLF 4) XLP 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +4.1% 2) Social Media +3.9% 3) Gambling +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• FBRX, OMER, QBTS, BMNR, RNG, ANDG, VIA, VERX, JBS, PEGA, TENX, NOW, SAP, SLN, MNDY, TSN, COMP, CPRT, ISRG, BKR, SONY, LW, NICE, RACE, MMED, DYN, VOD, RELX, EMBJ, ORCL, LTM, UVE, UFPT, ACI, MSIF, JANX, AVTR, ARLP, SNDA, IIIV and LVS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) DBX 2) QGEN 3) LVS 4) NOWL 5) XLY 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) FBRX 2) CRM 3) BKR 4) IONQ 5) THC

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FTXH 2) SOXX 3) IGV 4) XLY 5) ARKK

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALKS)/-.02
• (AB)/.83
• (AMT)/2.70
• (AWI)/2.25
• (BA)/-.28
• (CARR)/.82
• (KO)/.93
• (GLW)/.76
• (GSK)/1.24
• (HRI)/.76
• (DINO)/4.49
• (HLT)/2.27
• (HUBB)/5.39
• (ITW)/2.79
• (INCY)/2.20
• (ITRI)/1.29
• (OSK)/2.61
• (PCAR)/1.36
• (PYPL)/1.28
• (RGEN)/.45
• (SHW)/3.52
• (UPS)/1.66 
• (RCL)/3.98
• (JBLU)/-.69 

After the Close: 

• (CAR)/2.05
• (BE)/.41
• (CZR)/.04
• (CAKE)/1.18
• (CR)/1.68
• (FE)/.50
• (F)/.36
• (KLAC)/1.00
• (LSTR)/1.49
• (MIR)/.10
• (MDLZ)/.58
• (NBR)/-1.30
• (NXPI)/3.52
• (PPG)/2.25
• (STX)/5.10
• (SWKS)/1.03
• (TER)/2.09
• (V)/3.23
• (WERN)/.24 

Economic Releases 

 8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for June is estimated at -$100.0B versus -$105.8B in May.
• Retail Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in May.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for June is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in May. 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Prices Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in April.
• The S&P Cotalilty CS 20-City MoM for May is estimated unch. versus a -.04% decline in April. 

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to 7.0 versus 4.0 in June.
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to rise to 92.4 versus 91.2 in June.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for July. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, ADP weekly employment change, weekly US retail sales reports, 7Y T-Note auction, OPEC meeting, API weekly crude oil stock report and the (VFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.5 +.4
• 5 Sectors Rising, 6 Sectors Declining
• 58.9% of Issues Advancing, 38.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .90 -3.2%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$76.9M
  
• 106 New 52-Week Highs, 35 New Lows
• 58.4% (+2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.5 +3.0

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 10.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31st 13.0% -3.0 percentage points
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Sept. 30th 8.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31st 3.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 22.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 15th 92.0% +24.0 percentage points  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.7 -1.6%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 57.0 -10.0 points
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 90.0% unch.
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 466.0 +3.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.4 +.2%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 145.8 -.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 40.0 (FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 12.3 -20.4%
• Vix 19.4 +4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -3.1%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Netanyahu said he plans to press Trump in their meeting Tuesday to keep a “constant, constant watch” on Iran’s nuclear program, even as he said he has no new evidence that Tehran’s ability to build a weapon has been destroyed. 
• CXMT is set to begin trading in Shanghai on Monday after raising 66.6 billion yuan ($9.8 billion) in the second-largest IPO in China’s history, with potential for a first-day gain that would make it the largest company in the country. 
• Nvidia is in discussions to provide a guarantee of about $250 billion to help OpenAI lease computing from a giant data center project, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. 
• Investors will soon have another way to bet on the hottest stocks from Nvidia Corp. to SpaceX, without trading a single share. 
• Kioxia faces more wild price swings with leveraged exchange-traded funds tracking the Japanese memory chipmaker’s shares set to be listed in the US. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day. 

• @Zerohedge 

• Fauci writes about a “very good talk” he had with Sam Bankman-Fried, at the urging of Joe Manchin. 
• Goldman Trading Desk: Tech Is Now "Sold On The News"... And The Top Charts Of The Week. 
• "In the previous round of escalations, negotiations were initiated once US gasoline prices reached $4.20 and became materially more urgent as prices neared $4.50. Oil may be a global commodity, but political tolerance for high energy prices remains overwhelmingly domestic" - JPM. 
• Fauci Files: A Megalomaniacal Egomaniac Milking Covid For Everything It's Worth. 
• IPOs have underperformed the market since 2019.
• "Don't Flock Me": Massie Readies Bill To Yank Federal Cash From Cities And Police Departments Running Flock Cameras. 
• Activists Target WNBA Player After She Takes Stand Against Trans Agenda.
• *TRUMP SAYS US HAS FAR MORE MUNITIONS THAN IT NEEDS: WSJ.
• *TRUMP POSTS MADE-UP IMAGE OF JETS HITTING KHARG ISLAND ONLINE.
• ASU Just Made 'Influencing' A College Major.
• No Country For Old Trends: BTIG Warns Of "More Dangerous Regime" Imminent. (graph)    
• Iran Blasts "Freeloader" Zelensky For Ordering Deadly Attack On Caspian Vessel "At Israel's Behest".
• Machete-Wielding Islamic Terrorist Killed By Cops After Deadly Berlin Price Attack.
• "Now Taking Reservations For 2031 Delivery": GE Vernova Gas Turbine Backlog Climbs To 116 GW.
• Hawaii's Lieutenant Governor Indicted In "Biggest Bribery Scandal In State History".
• Catherine Herridge Uncovers Shocking Revelations About The Biden Family.
• US One-Way Attack Drone Found Adrift In Hormuz Offers New Look At Western Capabilities. 
• US State Department Issues Travel Advisory For Belgium.
• Tit-For-Tat Strikes On Hold As Iran Signals Reciprocal Pause If US Continues Stand-Down: Report.
• Big Tech's AI Reckoning: This Earnings Week Could Decide The Next Leg Of The Market.
• France Orders Largest Peacetime Evacuation Since WWII As Wildfires Rage.
• UK Cities Roll Out More Diversity Barriers; Vehicle-Ramming Threat Now The Norm.
• Beijing Blacklists 14 EU Firms After Brussels Targets Chinese Companies In Latest Russia Sanctions Package.
• Young Middle-Income Buyers Frustrated As US Home Costs Rise Faster Than Incomes.
• US To Resume Mexican Cattle Imports After Yearlong Screwworm Ban.
• War Zones Converging? Zelensky Says Ukraine Hit Ship "Transporting Military Cargo" From Iran.
• Rand Paul Should Make Fauci Answer For Wuhan And BeagleGate Lies.
• Trump Orders Signs Outside Smithsonian Museum To Warn Of Inaccurate Exhibits.
• Do DSA Elites Rank America Worse Than Mao's 70-Million Body Count?
• Meltdown? The Real Reason Why The Media Hates Elon Musk.

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Markets finally get a calm weekend; Nvidia and SK Hynix announce massive memory deal. 
• Luxury retailers turn to outlets for growth. Analysts say these stocks can benefit.  
• Earnings playbook: Apple and other megacaps lead busiest week of the season.
• What more expensive corporate debt could mean for the AI buildout.
• Some high-earning investors will soon owe taxes on years of deferred capital gains.
• Inside the S&P 500 AI boom, industrials are getting as rich as tech stocks.
• Nasdaq futures rally ahead of big week of earnings, Fed meeting: Live updates. 
• Oil slides 5% as Iran reportedly signals halt to attacks if U.S. pause holds.  

• @MarioNawful

• Lloyd's of London, the world's largest insurance marketplace, has told the Saudi shipping industry that they'll stop selling war cover for Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea. Any ship that has "Saudi touchpoints" will be included on the list of excluded ships. This is a massive blow, with the sea on both sides of the country now effectively under siege. At the same time, the Houthis warned that recent strikes on Saudi Arabia were just the start of a new war campaign. 
• A drone strike on a holiday camp in Russian-held Zaporizhzhia reportedly killed 12 people, including 5 children. The attack hit the coastal resort of Kyrylivka, with 19 others wounded and rescue crews searching the damaged site. Russian authorities blamed Ukraine for the strike, while Kyiv has not yet responded. Both sides deny intentionally targeting civilians in the war. Whether this specific camp strike was direct payback or just the latest exchange, the pattern is clear: each high-profile hit is quickly followed by one on the other side. The civilian toll keeps climbing on both ends of the front. (pics)

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING OVERNIGHT: Sen. Mike Lee will OFFICIALLY object to Leader Thune starting August recess until the SAVE America Act is passed. It takes ONE SENATOR to block the automatic recess and ask for the YEAs and NAYs. LFG. “I hereby object to any effort to put the Senate into recess in August—at least until such time as the Senate has passed the SAVE America Act—and hereby request a roll call vote. Do not assume you have my consent. You do not.” Time to FIGHT.

• @DeItaone

• IRAN CLAIMS MAJOR U.S. AIRCRAFT LOSSES. Iran’s IRGC claimed it destroyed 11 U.S. fighter jets and helicopters at regional military bases over the past 15 days. Tehran also said additional aircraft, including an F-15, P-8, C-17 and refuelling planes, were destroyed, and claimed U.S. fatalities exceeded 200. These claims have not been independently verified.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Knoxville police in Tennessee, who have replaced Flock cameras with Axon, say the public must now accept mass surveillance as the new normal because Axon is "safe and effective" and for your own good. Axon has already acquired Israeli police technology company Carbyne, that was co-funded by Jeffrey Epstein and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak. BlackRock and Vanguard are the largest shareholders of Axon. "The technology will be used the way it was intended to be used." (video)

• @FiananceLancelot

• Saudi Arabia is attacking key targets across Yemen right now. We're also seeing a massive inflow of US military equipment into Israel and Jordan. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• Mr. @POTUS, When are you going to hold someone, anyone, accountable for violating the sanctity of our elections!? Signed, A VERY concerned citizen who wants our country back and refuses to allow it to be taken by the radical left.

• @Unusual_whales

• The average cost of a date night in the US has climbed to $189, representing a 12.5% increase from $168 in 2025, per WSJ.

• @ScottPresler

• We need ONE brave Senator to force a roll call vote in order for the Senate to vote. on leaving for a 37-day paid vacation for August recess. We need ONE Senator to object to unanimous consent & “ask for the yeas and nays.”

• @RyanRozbiani

• MASSIVE Ongoing Clashes in Yemen between Ansar Allah and the Pro-government military factions. Praying for the people of Yemen. (video)

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: Minnesota program backed by Gov. Tim Walz will make transgender dolls with removable, interchangeable genitalia available to educators & clinicians working with children ages 4–10.

• @IranObserver

• BREAKING: Iran's Foriegn Minister has announced that Zelensky's Drone Strike on an Iranian Vessel in the Caspian Sea will receive a Response from Iran. Russia and the European Union have been Notified.

• @The_Real_Fly

• Netanyahu is scheduled to meet with President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday, where Netanyahu is expected to present intelligence claiming Iran is “once again racing towards nuclear weapons and accelerating its actions.”

• @HyperTechInvest

• $MU has decided to burn bridges with $AAPL wow. Years of bullying suppliers for cheap memory do not come without consequences. (pic)

• @KanekoaTheGreat

• One of the greatest mysteries of COVID-19: Where did the flu go in 2020 and 2021? (graph)

• @LeadingReport

• More than half of Americans disapprove of how the Supreme Court is doing its job, per WaPo.

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: The S&P 500's net profit margin is on track to surge to 15.7% for Q2 2026, the highest in data going back to 2009. If the current margin holds, it will mark the 10th consecutive quarterly increase. This comes as 27% of S&P 500 companies have reported their results so far this earnings season. Alphabet, $GOOGL, is the single largest margin contributor after significantly beating earnings estimates. Meanwhile, 86% of reporting S&P 500 firms have so far beaten EPS estimates, while 80% have exceeded revenue expectations. AI is driving historic earnings growth.

• @TomiLahren

• Anchor baby births are outpacing deportations. How is this sustainable? Discussion ahead on @BigWeekendShow 5-8pmET foxnews.

• @PatrickWebb

• BREAKING: New study finds that a minimum-wage worker in 1971 had a lifestyle affordability similar to someone making $100K today.

• @TruthGundlach

• Announced after hours on a late-July Friday: the Co-CEO of a $78 billion private credit fund resigned…four days before the announcement.

• @Barchart

• Retail Investors are now buying stocks at the slowest pace in more than 6 years. (graph)
• S&P 500 relative to M2 Money Supply just hit the exact same level that marked the peak of the Dot Com Bubble. (graph) 

• @BowesChay

• A major escalation in the War on Iran is coming. Israeli media is reporting that senior Israeli and US military commanders and politicians have been briefing "countries in the region" that a large scale escalation is coming. (video)

• @Britains_rights

• NEWS : migrants have burnt down Saint Patrick's burial site in IRELAND. (video)

• @TiffMoodNukes

• No one wants to talk about this… Trump just handed Pfizer another $1.24B in COVID vaccine contracts for the rest of FY26 and all of FY27 — including hundreds of millions specifically for pediatric doses for children This isn’t “health freedom” It’s a straight-up betrayal and a slap in the face to every family that lost someone to that poison. He just refinanced the producers of the clot shots — the same demons many believe who want to decrease the world population Where TF is the outrage?

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.0 -1.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 38.0 -.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 98.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.
• Crude Oil 85.40/bbl. -4.4%
• Gold 4,107.70 USD/t oz. +.9% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.31 -.22%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 34.49 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 124.8 -.7%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.63% -4.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.97% -2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 -2.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.35%.
• S&P 500 futures +.64%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.09%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by shipping and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.