Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +3.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.25 -1.5 basis points.   
• China Sovereign CDS 35.0 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.70 USD/Metric Tonne -.06%. 
• Crude Oil 86.0/bbl. -.9%. 
• Gold 4,133.0 USD/t oz. +.5%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.14 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.22 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 119.0 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.87% -1.0 basis point
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.85% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.5 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.68%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and transport shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Soaring into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Meaningful Data Center Construction Slowdown Skepticism, Short-Covering, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.2 -3.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 69.53 +.33% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .33 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .20 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.70 -4.3% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 158.96 -3.3% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 58.0 +1.6% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .8 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 84.8 -.5

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 69.5 -.3

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.0 -1.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 38.8 -1.6
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(447 of 500 reporting) +26.4% -1.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.08 +.88:  Growth Rate +26.9% +.3 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.34% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,105.87 +2.92: Growth Rate +64.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 15.7 +.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .49 +19.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.0 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.86 +.72%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 79.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.2% +1.1 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.5% +10.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.87% +1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 -15.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 68.7% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 42.4%(+6.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,250 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +113 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +40 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +277 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +2.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -.3% 2) Energy +.5% 3) Education +.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AXON, OBX, FSLR, LIF, NVDA, MNDY, PAYS, COAG, GMRS, HIMS, ACAD, ARWR, IONS, JANX and FTH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MNDY 2) XPEV 3) WRBY 4) ZURA 5) CMPX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SOC 2) NVDA 3) IONS 4) BIDU 5) DUOL

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLF 3) ALAI 4) IXN 5) XLP

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +4.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Space +8.4% 2) Lithography/Photonics +7.8% 3) Networking +7.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• DCTH, IAM, AOSL, CECO, FRVO, LINC, WRBY, QXO, COHR, TTD, AMBQ, PRAX, GHM, VIR, STRL, VIA, VSAT, SGRY, LUNR, FERG, NNE, FLY, ASTS, AMD, IMVT, REAL, BE, HYMC, FLEX, ALAB, LEU, APPS, FN, VIAV, NRG, ETON, LITE, CEG, ACMR, SITM, DNA, SANM, HHH, BKSY, VSEC, TSEM, AMSC, STX, AEVA, RKLB, IONQ, FUN, NET, RGTI, CMCO, SSMR, QDEL, MKSI, ONT, PWR, CENX, FIX, AVGO, HBM, MRVL, PRKS, SHOO, ANET, PAR, ANET, VRT, ASX, TIC, LBRX, JHX, GRDN, MDGL, IESC, Q, PPTA, CSV, MDGL, CRTO, LFST, FBIN, SGHT, PRMB, GEV, TMDX, BROS, ALNT, VCYT, GNRC, KIDS, GMED, LSCC, MLYS, ITT, NXST, FLGT, WULF, IVZ, BEN, VCTR, RGLD, ALKT, MTSI, CLS, CYRX, ASML, ARHS, DBVT, SNDK, RCEL, KMT, MGNI, BL, ROCK, ETN, FOXF, TILE, ARDT, JBS, RDNT, WYNN, SIBN, ZLAB and ASO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AZ 2) LION 3) ASX 4) SBLK 5) CC 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) UG 2) DCTH 3) COHR 4) QXO 5) AMD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLK 2) VGT 3) QTEC 4) GDX 5) XLC

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (ONON)/.39
• (SBH)/.60
• (SE)/.94
• (TDG)/12.21 

After the Close: 

• (ALC)/.88
• (ATRO)/.72
• (BGS)/.14
• (CRWV)/-1.27
• (RGTI)/-.05
• (STUB)/.08 

Economic Releases 

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Oct. is estimated to rise to 98.1 versus 97.9 in Sept. 

8:30 am EST

• The CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
• The Core CPI MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• (SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Fed's Paulson speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, 10Y T-Note auction, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, Cleveland CPI MoM for Oct., WASDE report, EIA short-term energy outlook, weekly API crude oil stock report, Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference, (SSYS) annual meeting, (FLEX) investor meeting, (LYV) investor meeting, (HRB) annual meeting, (COHU) investor day, (WOR) investor day and the Baird Industrial Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.0 +1.3
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 81.5% of Issues Advancing, 17.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 -6.4%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$354.7M
  
• 58 New 52-Week Highs, 70 New Lows
• 46.6% (+12.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 56.6 +7.2

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 6.0% unch.
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 4.0% unch.
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 8.0% unch.
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 3.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 13.0% unch.
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 26.0% unch.

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.9 +4.6%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 72.0 -13.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 35.0% -10.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 473.75 -12.5 basis points
• France Sovereign CDS 88.25 -2.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 260.3 +1.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 136.9 +1.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 32.0 (Moved FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +10.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.2 -50.6%
• Vix 20.2 -21.3%
• Total Put/Call .81 -14.7%