Tuesday, April 21, 2026

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC 
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @RenzTom
  • @nicksortor
  • @ABridgen
  • @DefiantLs
  • @HustleBitch_
  • PALANTIR JUST CALLED FOR MANDATORY MILITARY SERVICE FOR EVERY AMERICAN — THIS IS HOW THEY TAKE CONTROL. Palantir, a surveillance company wired into U.S. intelligence and sitting on $2B+ in government contracts, just published a 22-point manifesto. And one line hits like a warning: “National service should be a universal duty.” Not optional. Not volunteer. Mandatory. Everyone. But that’s just the surface. Because when you read all 22 points together, it stops sounding like ideas and starts sounding like a system: (video)
  • @DataRepublican
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @ImFiredUp2
  • @mattvanswol
  • @JackDangerLIVE
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @InterstellarUAP
  • @AaronRDay
  • Lutnick Wrote Trump's Tariffs Four Times Too High. His Son's Firm Cashed In. The Commerce Secretary wrote the reciprocal tariff formula with an elasticity of 0.25. The correct value was 0.945. That single digit inflated every tariff four-fold. Howard Lutnick's old firm, Cantor Fitzgerald, now run by his son Brandon, was buying the legal rights to tariff refunds at 20 to 30 cents on the dollar while Lutnick publicly insisted the tariffs were here to stay.
  • @WallStreetApes
  • Fairfax County Public Schools School Board in Virginia voted 8-1 to make Veterans Day a regular school day for the 2026-2027 school year. It will no longer be a holiday for students. This same board did not vote to eliminate Indigenous Peoples’ Day as a holiday. They say the change was made to reduce the number of disrupted school weeks and to give families more consistent 5 day instructional weeks. Sure….. because 1 day off for Veteran’s Day is a problem….. Democrats in Virginia decided Veteran’s Day is no longer important. (video)
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 unch. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%. 
  • Crude Oil 92.1/bbl. +2.8% 
  • Gold 4,771.3 USD/t oz. +1.1%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.73 -.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 112.3 -.02%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.29% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.59% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -1.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.31%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.56%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.71%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Ceasefire Expiration Worries, Global Supply Chain Disruption Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Medical/Airline Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.6 +2.1%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.1 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.01 +2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.0 +2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 157.0 +1.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 69.8 +1.4% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.8 +.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.8 +3.2
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -29.4 -4.9
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.3 +1.3
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(62 of 500 reporting) +28.4% -3.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 341.32 +.12:  Growth Rate +23.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.06% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 818.95 +.94: Growth Rate +105.8% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.4 +.1 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .88 -4.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 178.40 -.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.5 euros/megawatt-hour +8.0% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 21.5% -.8 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% -.1 percentage point
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.49 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 97.8% (-.8 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 93.6%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -510 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -107 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +72 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -4.7% 2) Airlines -4.3% 3) Nuclear -4.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • TXG, HOOD, TRVI, LPX, RTX, HMY, JKS, FIVE, NEXA, RHLD, ALK, HIMS, PDD, QBTS, DBVT, TM, PLAY, VKTX, MGNI, BILI, TDG, ORLA, INFQ, GE, COIN, PRU, QXO, NOC, BEPC, LION, OKLO, NUCL, SMR, DQ, LOAR, PEGA, SII, CRML, TSCO, MRLN, AGL and XNDU
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) BK 2) WEN 3) TSCO 4) VALE 5) BBWI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) TSCO 2) SPRB 3) WASH 4) GOSS 5) CWH
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) KRE 3) XRT 4) RING 5) XLB

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers +2.4% 2) Energy +1.9% 3) Computer Hardware +1.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VELO, POET, NVTS, CAR, AMPX, PBI, HRMY, GRPN, ALAB, MLI, VICR, UNH, YSS, AVAV, HPQ, KSS, OBE, HIMX, NTRS, POWI, DHI, CBIO, DCBO, AEHR, AEVA, BKSY, YPF, STLD, OFG, EXTR, BNTX, SYNA, ALMU, USAR, HUM, EXEL, MXL, USAR, BE, BMI, RDW, HAL, MSCI, DGX, ORCL, HPE, SMMT, OUST, CEVA, JBIO, ERAS, SPIR and SGHC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DLTR 2) FFAI 3) FLWS 4) RBRK 5) FCEL 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) UNH 2) DHI 3) VMI 4) NVTS 5) EGY
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLK 3) SMH 4) VGT 5) XLF
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (T)/.55
  • (BA)/-.68
  • (BSX)/.79
  • (CME)/3.34
  • (GEV)/1.97
  • (MAS)/.88
  • (MCO)/4.22
  • (NVR)/77.39
  • (OTIS)/.90
  • (PM)/1.83
  • (SF)/1.38
  • (TEL)/2.69
  • (TDY)5.47
  • (VRT)/1.00 
  • (PTEN)/-.10 
After the Close: 
  • (AZZ)/1.22
  • (CACI)/6.95
  • (CCI)/.98
  • (CSX)/.39
  • (FAF)/1.02
  • (GGG)/.74
  • (IBM)/1.81
  • (KALU)/1.96
  • (LRCX)/1.36
  • (LVS)/.76
  • (MEDP)/3.92
  • (OII)/.32
  • (RJF)/2.76
  • (RS)/4.67
  • (NOW)/.97
  • (LUV)/.47
  • (TSLA)/.37
  • (TXN)/1.36
  • (URI)/8.95
  • (WEX)/4.06 
Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,009,200 barrels versus a -913,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,832,400 barrels versus a -6,328,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,848,600 barrels versus a -3,122,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.78% versus a -2.4% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 20Y T-Bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (SHW) annual meeting, (CI) annual meeting, (BLMN) annual meeting and the American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +3.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.4 +.4
  • 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
  • 36.6% of Issues Advancing, 61.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .89 -4.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$2.99M
  • 155 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
  • 60.3% (-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 61.5 -3.5
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 90+ days 61.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 7.0% -2.0 percentage points
  • Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extended by April 26th 42.0% -26.0 percentage points 
  • US Invades Iran before 2027 38.0% +4.0 percentage points
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 68.0% -3.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 112.4 +.8%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 493.0 +.5 basis point
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.7 +.5%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 142.6 -.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 70.0 (GREED) +1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.2% +.2%
  • Vix 19.9 +5.3%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +1.1%