BETWEEN THE HEDGES

Thursday, November 12, 2026

Friday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 8:48 PM

Night Trading

Asian equity indices are -.25% to +2.25% on average.
Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -.25 basis point.
China Sovereign CDS 33.75 -.25 basis point.
China Iron Ore Spot 90.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.09%.
Crude Oil 88.50/bbl. -.3%.
Gold 3,891.0 USD/t oz. +.2%.
Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 7.98 -.07%.
Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.0 -.06%.
Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 126.0 +.5%.
US 10-Year Yield 5.12% unch.
Japan 30-Year Yield 3.98% +3.0 basis points.
Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.8 -.9%.
Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.41%.
S&P 500 futures +.24%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and shipping shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Modestly Lower on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Surging Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Weakness

Posted by Gary .....at 4:21 PM

Economic/Market Gauges:

North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.8 -.7%
BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.2 -1.5%
Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .35 unch.
BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .03 -5.0 basis points
European Financial Sector CDS Index 66.4 +.1%
Emerging Market CDS Index 161.2 +.5%
Israel Sovereign CDS 57.7 +.9%
Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 -.1
US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 87.2 +.3

Citi US Economic Surprise Index 71.1 -2.9

Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -.5

Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.2 unch.
S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +27.1% unch.
S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 416.54 +.07: Growth Rate +27.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.3 unch.
S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.31% -1.0 basis point
NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +34.9% unch.
NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,107.80 +.54: Growth Rate +65.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 15.9 -.1
Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +11.0 basis points
US Yield Curve 24.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 169.5 -1.1%
Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 96.3 euros/megawatt-hour +11.1%
US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 11.8% -2.3 percentage points
US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.5% unch.
US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.12% +13.0 basis points
1-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 +10.0 basis points

Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 64.7% (+4.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 50.5%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)

Overseas Futures:

Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +411 open in Japan
China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +1 open in South Korea

DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
Disclosed Trades: None
Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Posted by Gary .....at 12:45 PM

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

None of Note

After the Close:

None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

PPI Final Demand MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +1.3% gain in Sept.
PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.7% gain in Sept.

Upcoming Splits

(SNDK) 8-for-1

Other Potential Market Movers

The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Collins, Fed's Logan speaking, IEA monthly report, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (MOD) shareholders meeting, (RVTY) investor day, (SYY) annual meeting and the (FLUT) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

Posted by Gary .....at 12:29 PM

NYSE Composite Index:

Volume Running -7.7% Below 100-Day Average
Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.2 -4.2
6 Sectors Rising, 5 Sectors Declining
32.6% of Issues Advancing, 65.8% Declining
TRIN/Arms 1.16 +3.6%
Non-Block Money Flow +$15.4M
40 New 52-Week Highs, 144 New Lows
44.9% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
Average 14-Day RSI 58.9 +.5

Polymarket:

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 5.0% -1.0 percentage point
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30th 2.0% unch.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 3.0% unch.
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 2.0% unch.
US Invades Iran before 2027 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30th 10.0% -4.0 percentage points

Other

Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 126.3 +1.5%
Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 71.0 -2.0
Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 50.0% unch.
US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 471.0 -22.0 basis points
France Sovereign CDS 87.3 +1.1%
Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 261.1 +.1%
Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 137.7 -.4%
CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +6.0
1-Day Vix 11.7 -7.4%
Vix 17.6 +.7%
Total Put/Call .91 +4.6%

Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Thursday Watch

Posted by Gary .....at 9:04 PM