Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/.87
• (KSS)/.86
• (UNFI)/.51 

After the Close: 

• (AVAV)/.68
• (ORCL)/1.70 

Economic Release 

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 99.6 versus 99.3 in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 3.88M versus 3.91M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, API weekly crude oil stock report, Cantor Tech/Industrial Growth Conference, BNP Strategic Access/Research Conference, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Management Access Forum, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, Citi Consumer/Retail Conference, Barclays Healthcare Conference, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, (ETN) investor day, (TOL) general meeting, (HWM) investor meeting, (BG) investor day and the Leerink Health Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +31.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -4.2
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 19.5% of Issues Advancing, 79.3% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .47 -36.5%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$313.6M
  
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 118 New Lows
• 52.2% (-9.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 31.7 -4.7

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 98.0% +10.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 32.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31st? 98.0% +21.0 percentage points 

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.2 +.5%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +6.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 93.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 555.5 +7.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.43 -.9%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.4 +1.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 23.0 (Moved to EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -3.0
• 1-Day Vix 17.3 -46.9%
  
• Vix 28.3 -3.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• Iran named the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as its new supreme leader as Tehran kept up its attacks on several countries on the ninth day of the war in the Middle East. 
• The State Department ordered American employees and diplomats in Saudi Arabia to leave the country amid the war with Iran, the New York Times reported, citing current and former US officials. 
• The surge in oil prices combined with a sagging yen raises the risk that Japan will slide into stagflation, prompting the government to ramp up fiscal spending while complicating the central bank’s mission to normalize its policy settings
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• The dollar strengthened against every major currency Monday as a deepening war in the Middle East pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel and boosted demand for havens
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• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market
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• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets
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• Here's what you need to know to start your day
  .   

• @Zerohedge

• Trump: "oil prices will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over". 
• US Explores High-Risk Plan To Seize Iran's Nuclear Stockpile In Potential Gateway To Ground Troops.
• *IRAN’S QALIBAF SAYS WON'T SEEK CEASEFIRE WITH 'AGGRESSORS': TV. *IRAN'S QALIBAF: WE ARE NEITHER VENEZUELA NOR SYRIA. *IRAN'S PARLIAMENT SPEAKER QALIBAF TELLS STATE-RUN TV. 
• *IRAN TO HIT REGIONAL ENERGY SITES IF ATTACKS ON INFRA CONTINUE. *IRANIAN TV CITES IRGC STATEMENT ON WARNING TO REGIONAL NATIONS.
• It Begins: Iranian Drone Strikes Bahrain Desalination Plant As Worst-Case Scenario Unfolds. 
• *TAIWAN'S RETURN TO CHINA IS OUTCOME OF WWII VICTORY, SAYS WANG. *THOSE WHO DEFY CHINA ON TAIWAN WILL 'PERISH' SAYS WANG. 
• SAUDI SAYS SHOT DOWN THREE DRONES IN RIYADH. SAUDI SAYS. INTERCEPTED DRONE HEADING TOWARD SHAYBAH OIL FIELD. 
• Cuba Is Negotiating Deal With US, Trump Says. 
• Kremlin: "We Are Not Neutral. We Support Iran."
• Scientists Train Lab-Grown Human Brain Cells To Play Doom. 
• Iran Picks Khamenei's Son As Next Supreme Leader.
• Update: $5 gas at the pump based on $300 RBOB. 
• Operation Epic Fury - Déjà Vu. 
• Xi Hints At More Top Purges, Issues Warning To 'Corrupt Elements' In Chinese Army.
• Russia's new oil price target.
• With Only Iran-Linked Tankers Transiting Hormuz, Saudis Boost Red Sea Flows To Record. 
• 'Everything You Knew About The Market Flipped This Week': Top Goldman Trader.   
• 'Small Price To Pay': Trump Says Surging Oil Prices Will 'Drop Rapidly' Once Iran Nuke Threat Over.
• Insurance Companies Crushed As Private Credit Contagion Spills Over.
• Bahrain triggers its security pact with the United States and United Kingdom (signed in 2023). Worth watching.
• The oil island that could break Iran.
• Turkey Mulls F-16 Deployment To Turkish-Occupied Cyprus Amid Iran War Tensions.
• PJM Market Monitor Opposes Maryland Coal Plant Sale To Data Center Company.
• Venezuela's Gas Potential Could Overshadow Its Famous Oil Reserves.
• Prediction markets are on fire. Polymarket just surpassed Kalshi in weekly volume and is reportedly valued around $20B.
• Goldman Flows Guru Warns Relatively Calm Index Belies 'Fragile' Market With 'Poor Tolerance For Bad News'.
• Saudi redline communicated to #Iran. “The Crown Prince of #Saudi Arabia will take out Kharg Island”.
• Urgent. Saudi Aramco officially announces diversion of some oil quantities to Yanbu Port - The company: We are working to ensure the reliability of oil supplies and monitor developments to return operations to normal. Quoted from the Saudi News Channel.   
• Larijani plus Ghalibaf and the IRGC commanders are calling the shots. The message to the GCC countries is clear: the attacks will continue unless the become neutral states in the conflict. 
• *TRUMP: UK MAY SEND TWO AIRCRAFT CARRIERS TO MIDDLE EAST. *TRUMP: DON’T NEED PEOPLE WHO JOIN WARS AFTER WE’VE WON.
• *TRUMP: WAR AGAINST IRAN WILL CONTINUE 'FOR A LITTLE WHILE'. *TRUMP DECLINES TO PROJECT WAR TIMELINE, 'WHATEVER IT TAKES'.
• *TRUMP: NOT LOOKING TO KURDS GOING INTO IRAN. *TRUMP: TOLD KURDISH LEADERS WE DON'T WANT THEM TO GO IN.
• Trump Announces Military Coalition With Latin American Leaders To Eradicate Cartels.
• Breaking: All of Tehran's oil refineries and depots are burning tonight. A 360 degree view of the city. (video)     

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Oil surges past $100 per barrel as Iran war rages.
• Dow futures tumble 900 points as U.S. oil tops $100 a barrel to begin the week's trading: Live updates.
• Online age-verification tools spread across U.S. for child safety, but adults are being surveilled.
• Global week ahead: Diplomacy in ruins as G7 meets on Iran.   
• China says 'thorough preparations' needed as Trump-Xi meeting hangs in the balance amid Iran war. 

• @MarioNawful

• U.S officials are reportedly discussing a plan to seize Iran’s Kharg Island, the chokepoint responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports. If the proposal moves forward, the island would fall under direct U.S. military control in the next phase of the war. And Kharg is just the opening move. Once it’s secured, the plan shifts to locking down Iran’s nuclear facilities and tightening U.S. control over the Strait of Hormuz itself, the economic jugular of the entire region. (video)
• The first week of Operation Epic Fury reportedly cost the U.S. roughly $6 billion, with $4 billion of that going to munitions and interceptors alone. That burn rate is so alarming that the administration is privately discussing invoking the Defense Production Act to force manufacturers to accelerate weapons production. (video)
• Ok things changed in the last few hours, and it’s not looking good. Here's why: - Iran struck the Gulf countries hard tonight. I was not expecting that. - The NYT just reported U.S. officials gave a closed door briefing to Congress estimating Iran still retains half its ballistic missile program and even more of its drone capabilities. - The Strait of Hormuz is still shut, and if Iran can sustain this for another 3 weeks, the global markets won’t survive (and based on the NYT report, they should easily be able to)... 
• The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet base in Bahrain is on fire after a reported Iranian drone strike. It’s the headquarters for U.S. naval ops across the Middle East and Gulf waters. (video) 

• @sentdefender

• Insane video appears to show the moment last night that storm drains across the Iranian capital of Tehran exploded and burst into flames, as a result of runoff from the Shahran Oil Depot and other oil infrastructure across Northern Tehran, which were targeted earlier in the evening by strikes from the Israeli Air Force. (video)

• @Amy_K_Nelson

• No one has mentioned this re: Epstein's death - but this is a VERY big deal. SDNY moved VERY quickly - w/in 24 hours - to obtain/issue a grand jury subpoena seeking the IP address of the 4chan user who said Epstein had been "switched out" before his death. /1. (pic)

• @WallStreetApes

• I verified this and it’s true. “Lab-grown chocolate is coming to shelves in 2027. Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone are already funding the Israeli biotech producing it because a lab is cheaper than a farm”. “Cadbury has been quietly replacing your chocolate — This dairy milk isn't legal chocolate in 27 countries, the cocoa butter was replaced with vegetable fat, a cheap blend of 6 industrial oils. What remains is diluted with polyglycerol — Soon even that gets replaced, you'll be eating cells grown in a pharmaceutical tank”. Cadbury Dairy Milk (in the UK and many markets) has included vegetable fats (like palm and shea) alongside cocoa butter for years. UK/EU regulations allow up to 5% non-cocoa vegetable fats in chocolate if it meets minimum cocoa solids (20%) and other standards. In America standards are much lower. (video)

• @DataRepublican

• Hello Senator Thune, Wow. Just wow. Democrats didn't block Trump's nominees,
  @SenateGOP did. You had the majority. You failed. Republicans rejected Trump's picks. That's not on Democrats. We aren't Marxists; we believe in historical fact. And the fact is, you torpedoed @EagleEdMartin over manufactured outrage about January 6, while ignoring actual violence your constituents face. You don't get to revise the record. You own this. You talk about being the party of personal accountability. Stop attending lobbyist steak dinners and start showing it.

• @ShadowofEzra

• Lindsey Graham tells America to be prepared for a great reset and to stay tuned for the war against Cuba, saying the liberation of Cuba is incoming. Graham says they are marching through the entire world and cleaning out whoever they think are the bad guys. "Cuba is next." (video)
• Harrison Smith reports that anonymous X users worldwide are discovering that their real names are being searched in Israel. This comes after X began using verification software from Au10tix, an Israeli company staffed and created by veterans from IDF Unit 8200. “X is helping Israel unmask its enemies.” (video) 

• @DropSiteNews

• “Black rain” and “nuclear winter” effect reported in Tehran after Israeli strikes on oil facilities. Israeli strikes on oil depots around Tehran have released massive quantities of toxic hydrocarbons, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides. Mixed with rainwater, these chemicals are causing highly acidic precipitation that can cause skin burns and severe lung damage upon contact, according to Iranian authorities. Dense plumes of black smoke from the Shahran and other refineries have blotted out the sun, plunging parts of the city into darkness and creating a "nuclear winter" effect, NYT reported. Authorities warned that these noxious fumes cause acute respiratory distress and eye irritation... 

• @EricLDaugh

• BREAKING: Sen. Chuck Schumer announces Senate Democrats will 100% BLOCK the SAVE America Act to guard illegal alien voter fraud. He just straight-up admits to cheating by doing this. TRAITOR. "Senate Democrats will not help pass the SAVE Act under any circumstances." "The SAVE Act is Jim Crow 2.0. It would disenfranchise tens of millions of people. If Trump is saying he won’t sign any bills until the SAVE Act is passed, then so be it: there will be total gridlock in the Senate." The Senate GOP can CIRCUMVENT Chuck with a talking filibuster. Get it done!
• WOW. Jaw-dropping footage captures America's C-RAM system firing back at reported drone and missile fire near the US embassy complex in Baghdad, Iraq. The sound is freaking insane. (video) 

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• Israel & The US are destroying the Iranian Regimes Oil infrastructure all across Iran right now. (video)

• @OSINTEurope  

• U.S. officials suspect China is responsible for a compromise of the FBI's surveillance network. - WSJ.

• @NickSortor

• BREAKING: NYPD CONFIRMS the device thrown at anti-Islam protestors in NYC was a LIVE NAIL BOMB that FAILED to detonate. THIS WAS AN ATTEMPTED ISLAMIC TERRORIST ATTACK, AND THE MEDIA IS IGNORING IT. WTF?! Legacy media is the ENEMY OF THE PEOPLE! (video)
• BREAKING: Kansas City International Airport is being EVACUATED of all travelers and workers due to a “SERIOUS INCIDENT”. Initial reports are of a credible bomb threat to the airport. All planes have been halted and a sweep is underway. (video) 

• @EmeraldRobinson

• Just got a call from a Senate staffer. GOP leadership can't allow the disclosure of sex harassment settlements right now. The reason? It would harm John Cornyn. I'm told: that particular settlement was paid to another man.

• @sayerjigmi

• Today the WSJ published a piece on Epstein "conspiracy theories" — cannibalism, beef jerky as human flesh, baby farms. Also today, I published 24 federal DOJ exhibits documenting Epstein's 8-year operational cloning program: his cells in liquid nitrogen at Harvard, a $9.5M designer baby company, an overseas surgical lab structured to evade US law. For context: the phrase "designer baby" isn't fringe vocabulary. The NIH indexes a peer-reviewed university genetics curriculum built entirely around it. They covered the beef jerky crowd. They didn't mention the exhibits. They didn't mention the NIH. You decide what's a conspiracy theory: (thread)

• @KobeissiLetter

• BREAKING: The US is "dismayed" by Israel's strikes on 30 Iranian oil depots on Saturday, sparking the first "significant disagreement" between the allies since the war began, per Axios. Details include: 1. The strikes reportedly went "far beyond" what the US expected when Israel notified it in advance 2. "We don't think it was a good idea," a senior US official said 3. An Israeli official said the US message to Israel was "WTF" 4. "The president doesn't like the attack. He wants to save the oil. He doesn't want to burn it. And it reminds people of higher gas prices," a Trump adviser said US gas prices are now expected to surge well above $4/gallon this month. 
• The water desalination strikes: Yesterday, Iran said the US struck Iranian water desalination sites, leaving ~30 villages without water. Iran called this a "dangerous move with grave consequences." Then, minutes ago, Bahrain announced that Iran struck their water desalination facilities. This is being described as the "worst-case scenario." Why? Because most Gulf countries cannot survive without desalinated water. It accounts for 90% of Kuwait's drinking water, 86% in Oman, 70% in Saudi Arabia, and 42% in the UAE. Drinking water for millions of people is at risk.
• BREAKING: US money market fund assets are up to a record $8.24 trillion, a +58% surge since December 2022. During this period, the top 5 managers, Fidelity, JPMorgan, Charles Schwab, Vanguard, and BlackRock, drove ~69% of total asset growth, with combined assets now at $4.76 trillion. Their collective market share has risen +14 percentage points to ~58% since 2011. Overall, total money market fund assets have grown +$5 trillion since 2019, or at a +13.7% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). Demand for safe-haven investments remains historically high. (graph) 
• Investors are dumping Asian stocks at a rapid pace: Global investors sold -$11.0 billion of equities in developing Asia excluding China this week, the largest weekly outflow since March 2022. Outside of the 2022 bear market and the 2020 pandemic selloff, this marks the largest weekly outflow on record. Taiwan was hit hardest with a record -$7.9 billion in withdrawals, followed by South Korea at -$1.6 billion and India at -$1.3 billion. 

• @DanielGilr44222

• Bill and Hillary Clinton's personal attorney shows up in the Epstein documents — and happens to be Ghislaine Maxwell's closest friend. (pic)

• @Worldsource24

• Shahran oil depot in Tehran is still burning intensely as the city wakes up on Sunday morning. (video)

• @MattWallace888

• BREAKING: Uncensored AI has added a section to their website called “The Rabbit Hole”. It includes the entire Epstein files (deleted ones are all saved) in an organized/searchable fashion. As well as a High-Resolution rendering of ‘The Great Awakening Map’. (video)

• @BreitbartNews.

• @KenPaxtonTX tells @mboyle1: “Everything that John Cornyn did was designed to make sure that Donald Trump did not get reelected.” “If the people of Texas knew how viciously John Cornyn went after Donald Trump by encouraging and inciting these people like Jack Smith and Mueller... to basically destroy the president, there’s no way that the people of Texas would put up with that and vote for John Cornyn.” (video)

• @JuneGoh_Sparta

• The forgotten barrel but not anymore: 1) Fuel oil is what comes out of the refinery, all the bottoms, unloved, heaviest stuff. Majority of this fuel oil goes into bunker fuels, which is essentially the gas for ships. 2) What ships are we talking about? Container ships, oil ships, dry bulk ships, cruise ships. Maybe more. 3) Can you get fuel oil from anywhere else except the refinery? Nope, it has to get refined from crude. There are fuel oil storage tanks around but if we are not running crude into refineries, you won't get fuel oil...

• @TheInsidePaper

• WATCH: Absolutely massive fire and smoke seen in Tehran after major strikes on oil depots. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• Chuck Schumer and John Thune are fighting to make sure nobody uses Voter ID in DC. Marc Elias is fighting to make sure nobody sees how many ineligible are currently on the voter rolls in 30 blue states. This is how the establishment keeps their illegitimate power.

• @NoAlphaLimits

• IRAN JUST TOLD THE U.S. AND ISRAEL: "PAY US OR THE WAR DOESN'T END." THIS IS NOT A BLUFF. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, just made a statement that should TERRIFY every market on Earth: "The war will end only when Iran's adversaries understand they no longer have the right to violate Iranian territory and agree to pay COMPENSATION for the damages caused." Let that sink in. Iran isn't negotiating. Iran is setting TERMS...

• @AdityaRajKaul

• Pakistan plunges into a fuel crisis as the government hikes petrol and diesel prices by PKR 55 per litre, citing surging global oil costs linked to escalating Middle East tensions. Long queues and panic buying reported at petrol pumps across the country. (video)

• @matttttt187 

• Iran hit Saudi Arabia’s oil refinery…now it’s FAFO time!!! BREAKING: Israel reportedly just DESTROYED 30 Iranian oil storage tanks, and a major refinery in Tehran is completely UP IN FLAMES. Numerous videos showing the aftermath of US strikes on Iranian oil depots in Tehran, Iran. This is essentially a direct hit on China now. (video)

• @amuse

• J6: In yet another slap in the face to Ashli Babbitt's family, Senate Republicans mounted a plaque honoring her killer and the other Capitol Police in the Capitol. The plague pushes the Democrat's false narratives about that day. House Republicans ought to mount a plaque memorializing Ashli Babbitt's peaceful protest on that day. (pic)

• @BrandonStraka

• Senate Republicans will not pass the SAVE Act, however DID vote in unison to have this plaque hung in the halls of Congress today. It honors Capitol police officers who killed supporters of Donald Trump and lied on witness stands to have them imprisoned and civilly sued. (pic)

• @OSINT613

• CRAZY FOOTAGE!! Apocalyptic scenes coming out of Tehran right now. (video)

• @Conflict_Radar

• The oil is flowing into the sewers and the streets are on fire in Tehran. (video)

• @ThePatriotOasis

• BREAKING: A list has been released naming the GOP senators who are either openly opposed or expressing skepticism toward using the talking filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act. - Leader John Thune. - John Cornyn. - Lisa Murkowski. - Katie Britt. - John Curtis. - Kevin Cramer. - Thom Tillis. These holdouts are now under scrutiny as pressure mounts for Republicans to unite and deliver on key America First priorities. The talking Filibuster is the only realistic path forward without securing 60 votes in the Senate. (video)

• @JinWooIQ

• STRIKE THIS SHIP AND CHINA ENTERS THE WAR. THE U.S. CAN'T TOUCH IT. AND IRAN IS USING IT TO WIN. China's spy ship Liaowang-1 is sailing off the coast of Oman RIGHT NOW — collecting REAL-TIME intelligence on every U.S. military asset in the Middle East — and feeding it DIRECTLY to Iran. Let that sink in.

• @MRefaat_Formal

• Iran is tonight bombarding #BenGurionAirport in #TelAviv and other cities in #Israel in what I believe to be the most intense manner since the start of the war.. It seems that Russia and perhaps China are present in this war from behind the curtain. The war is intensifying tonight and its fires will intensify in the coming days as each side has entered the stage of seeking to settle the battle due to the escalating costs becoming difficult to bear. (video)

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -6.0% to -2.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.75 +10.75 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 49.75 +5.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%.
• Crude Oil 117.2/bbl. +28.7%
• Gold 5,081.9 USD/t oz. -1.4% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.12%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.58 -.18%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 96.0 +1.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.21% +7.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.49% +9.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.9 +7.4%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -3.0%.
• S&P 500 futures -2.3%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -2.6%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.