Monday, March 09, 2026

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Prolonged Mideast War Fears, Surging Inflation Expectations, Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.3 -.3%
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.8 -1.4% 
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .26 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .29 +14.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.1 +.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 146.4 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 96.1 +10.6% 
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 -.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.6 -1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.70 -12.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 36.8 -1.2 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(493 of 500 reporting) +13.7% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 324.31 +1.52:  Growth Rate +16.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.76% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 523.38 +8.59: Growth Rate +31.5% +2.1 percentage points, P/E 28.5 -.7
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 -28.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 54.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis points 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.9 -.2% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 56.5 euros/megawatt-hour +5.8% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% -1.3 percentage points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.1% -90.0 basis points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% -1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.55 +30.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 87.3% (+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 60.8%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +740 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -60 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -50 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.7% 2) Airlines -2.3% 3) Retail -2.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ASGI, VCTR, VLO, NESR, ALK, ARR, MT, SAIA, BR, ONON, ODD, UPS, WFRD, M, EVR, MBUU, TECX, RH, HROW, PII, KSS, DAKT, PTRN, BATL, RCAT, DFH, LAZ, AERO, ELF, ALOY, ORIC and OLMA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) XENE 2) BAM 3) FND 4) PL 5) SCO
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CMCT 2) OLMA 3) BYND 4) BRBR 5) FCEL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) XBI 4) XLP 5) IGV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) AI/Innovation +1.7% 2) Semis +1.4% 3) Shipping +1.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • XENE, HIMS, DNTH, QURE, RGNX, KC, CLPT, AXTI, SNDX, LITE, KALV, VRT, MEOH, CAPR, TEN, ADEA, AAOI, AGX, CRCL, SNDK, UTHR, ISSC, LNTH, XPEV, PTCT, DOW, LYV, TER, PZZA, LAUR, AVBP, BW, SPHR, INSW, AMPX, UMAC, LIF, BILI, KLAR, DHT, LTH, PBR/A, FRO, VSEC, UMAC, PBR, AGRO, OMDA and CRESY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PROP 2) SCO 3) BN 4) BLDR 5) WEAT 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) QURE 2) UTHR 3) RGNX 4) DYN 5) HIMS
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) SOXX 3) ITA 4) XLK 5) XLI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/.87
  • (KSS)/.86
  • (UNFI)/.51 
After the Close: 
  • (AVAV)/.68
  • (ORCL)/1.70 
Economic Release 

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 99.6 versus 99.3 in Jan. 

10:00 am EST

  • Existing Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to fall to 3.88M versus 3.91M in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, EIA short-term energy outlook report, API weekly crude oil stock report, Cantor Tech/Industrial Growth Conference, BNP Strategic Access/Research Conference, JPMorgan Gaming/Lodging/Restaurant/Leisure Management Access Forum, UBS Consumer/Retail Conference, Citi Consumer/Retail Conference, Barclays Healthcare Conference, RBC Financial Institutions Conference, (ETN) investor day, (TOL) general meeting, (HWM) investor meeting, (BG) investor day and the Leerink Health Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +31.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -4.2
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 19.5% of Issues Advancing, 79.3% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .47 -36.5%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$313.6M
  • 44 New 52-Week Highs, 118 New Lows
  • 52.2% (-9.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 31.7 -4.7
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 98.0% +10.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 11.0% unch.
  • Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st 32.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31st? 98.0% +21.0 percentage points 
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 95.2 +.5%
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +6.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 93.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 555.5 +7.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.43 -.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 141.4 +1.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 23.0 (Moved to EXTREME FEAR from FEAR) -3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 17.3 -46.9%
  • Vix 28.3 -3.9%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -2.1%

Sunday, March 08, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful
  • @sentdefender
  • @Amy_K_Nelson
  • @WallStreetApes
  • I verified this and it’s true. “Lab-grown chocolate is coming to shelves in 2027. Oreo, Cadbury and Toblerone are already funding the Israeli biotech producing it because a lab is cheaper than a farm”. “Cadbury has been quietly replacing your chocolate — This dairy milk isn't legal chocolate in 27 countries, the cocoa butter was replaced with vegetable fat, a cheap blend of 6 industrial oils. What remains is diluted with polyglycerol — Soon even that gets replaced, you'll be eating cells grown in a pharmaceutical tank”. Cadbury Dairy Milk (in the UK and many markets) has included vegetable fats (like palm and shea) alongside cocoa butter for years. UK/EU regulations allow up to 5% non-cocoa vegetable fats in chocolate if it meets minimum cocoa solids (20%) and other standards. In America standards are much lower. (video)
  • @DataRepublican
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @DropSiteNews
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @OSINTEurope  
  • @NickSortor
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @sayerjigmi
  • Today the WSJ published a piece on Epstein "conspiracy theories" — cannibalism, beef jerky as human flesh, baby farms. Also today, I published 24 federal DOJ exhibits documenting Epstein's 8-year operational cloning program: his cells in liquid nitrogen at Harvard, a $9.5M designer baby company, an overseas surgical lab structured to evade US law. For context: the phrase "designer baby" isn't fringe vocabulary. The NIH indexes a peer-reviewed university genetics curriculum built entirely around it. They covered the beef jerky crowd. They didn't mention the exhibits. They didn't mention the NIH. You decide what's a conspiracy theory: (thread)
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @DanielGilr44222
  • @Worldsource24
  • @MattWallace888
  • @BreitbartNews.
  • @JuneGoh_Sparta
  • @TheInsidePaper
  • @DC_Draino
  • @NoAlphaLimits
  • IRAN JUST TOLD THE U.S. AND ISRAEL: "PAY US OR THE WAR DOESN'T END." THIS IS NOT A BLUFF. Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, just made a statement that should TERRIFY every market on Earth: "The war will end only when Iran's adversaries understand they no longer have the right to violate Iranian territory and agree to pay COMPENSATION for the damages caused." Let that sink in. Iran isn't negotiating. Iran is setting TERMS...
  • @AdityaRajKaul
  • @matttttt187 
  • @amuse
  • @BrandonStraka
  • @OSINT613
  • @Conflict_Radar
  • @ThePatriotOasis
  • BREAKING: A list has been released naming the GOP senators who are either openly opposed or expressing skepticism toward using the talking filibuster to pass the SAVE America Act. - Leader John Thune. - John Cornyn. - Lisa Murkowski. - Katie Britt. - John Curtis. - Kevin Cramer. - Thom Tillis. These holdouts are now under scrutiny as pressure mounts for Republicans to unite and deliver on key America First priorities. The talking Filibuster is the only realistic path forward without securing 60 votes in the Senate. (video)
  • @JinWooIQ
  • @MRefaat_Formal
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -6.0% to -2.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.75 +10.75 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.75 +5.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%.
  • Crude Oil 117.2/bbl. +28.7%
  • Gold 5,081.9 USD/t oz. -1.4% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.12%. 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.58 -.18%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 96.0 +1.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.21% +7.0 basis points. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.49% +9.0 basis points. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 26.9 +7.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -3.0%.
  • S&P 500 futures -2.3%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -2.6%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, weighed down by transport and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.