Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,166.5 +.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 49,161.1 -.5%

• NASDAQ 24,819.3 +1.6%

• Russell 2000 2,787.8 +.5%

• NYSE FANG+ 16,278.0 +1.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 291.0 -2.3%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 34.31 +.7%

• Wilshire 5000 70,896.4 +.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,819.1 +.5%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,239.6 +.2%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 939.2 +1.0%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 256.8 -.3%
  

• NYSE Technology 8,192.8 +4.1%

• Transports 20,939.1 -6.7%

• Utilities 1,156.3 -.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 116.0 -4.7%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 63.64 +.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 253.7 +.9%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 132.9 +.4%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 611,557 +.21%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 18.9 +7.6%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 523 +112

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -21.7 -4.9%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 206,541 +2.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,094,492 +2.8%

• Total Put/Call .77 +16.7%

• OEX Put/Call .56 unch.

• ISE Sentiment 168.0 +22.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.41 +3.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 114.4 +3.9%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.10 +2.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 18.6 +6.2%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .73 -29.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.8 -.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.0 -2.4%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.2 unch.

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,419.8 -.19%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  94.2 +14.7

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.637 Trillion -.1%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$14.437 Million

• AAII % Bulls 46.0 +45.1%

• AAII % Bears 34.4 -19.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) +23.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 381.8 +1.9%

• Crude Oil 94.3/bbl. +9.9%

• Reformulated Gasoline 345.81 +14.3%

• Natural Gas 2.52 -5.2%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 74.9 USD/Megawatt +2.1% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.5 euros/megawatt-hour +11.8%
  

• Heating Oil 390.8 +12.0% 
• Newcastle Coal 132.0 (1,000/metric ton) unch.

• Gold 4,723.3 -2.2%
• Silver 76.5 -5.4%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 180.5 +.6%

• Copper 602.8 -.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 406.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 23,475.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 60.0 -5.7%  

• CME Lumber 582.0 unch.

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,369.8 +2.2%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 332.5 USD/Short Ton +.8%
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 652.5 USD/Short Ton -8.1% 

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% -.1 percentage point

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.3 -3.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.5 -9.2%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 173.9 -25.0% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 92.0% -3.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 481.0 +67.4%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(137 of 500 reporting) +25.3% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.57 n/a:  Growth Rate +23.6% +n/a percentage point, P/E 20.8 -n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.18% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 821.91 +n/a: Growth Rate +107.6% +n/a percentage point, P/E 19.7 -n/a

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.9 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -48.4 -25.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.1 +7.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 99.5%(+.5 percentage point) chance of no change, .5%(-.5 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 4/29

• US Dollar Index 98.5 +.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,870.0 -.2%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 76,604.0 +3.8%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 212.9 +.1%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.70 -.2%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 53.25 -.5 basis point

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +6.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.68% +5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.660 Trillion +.03%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $5.803 Billion +1.6%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.3 +.3%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 189.2 +1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 78.0 +6.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.6 +1.2%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 45.0 +5.8%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 124.4 -4.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 67.8 +1.1%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.8 +3.7%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.9 -.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 -.6%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 112.66 -1.5%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% -10.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.10% unch.: CPI YoY +3.56% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.16 -19.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.43 +7.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.25 -1.75 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -17.25 -.25 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 -1.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.4 +2.1% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.9 -3.4%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 108.0 +.8%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 507.2 +3.9% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 247.0 +6.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 62.4 +4.1%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 160.4 +3.7%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 110.0 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 580.0 -2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .53 -2.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,418.7B +.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 210,750 +.4%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.4 +6.1%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.36% -7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 303,300 +7.9%

• Weekly Retail Sales +6.9% -10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +10.0% +8.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $158.8M -43.0%

• Nationwide Gas $4.06/gallon -.02/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,673.0 +4.1%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,231.7/40 ft Box -.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,233.8 +1.9%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 250.0 +2.0%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 132.7 -6.9%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,554 +2.3%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,740,418 +32.4% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.9 -1.5 points
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 44.0% unch.

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +.7%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.3%

Leading Sectors

• Semis +10.0%

• Oil Service +5.7%
• AI/Innovation +5.1%

• Alt Energy +4.2%
  

• Energy +3.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Education -5.4%

• Defense -5.9%
  

• Gold & Silver -6.9%

• Airlines -9.3%
  

• Computer Services -9.4%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (65)

• MXL, POET, OGN, INTC, AAOI, SXT, WOLF, CEVA, RMBS, AMD, ARM, WKC, AOSL, LPTH, XNDU, TTMI, QCOM, CHE, APOG, APPF, AIP, MRAM, HTLD, AMSC, SNPS, HIMX, HIMS, SYNA, SMCI, AMKR, OUST, PENG, RVI, ALAB, KALU, SANM, BKR, VELO, FORM, NVO, SMTC, ESI, TSM, CLSK, ALMU, EW, VECO, OBE, CDNS, ATKR, BIDU, NVDA, KLIC, PDFS, DIOD, AEHR, COHU, MPLT, VC, HRTG, LSCC, POWI, SLB, AEIS and STM

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (36)

• LMT, LLY, LHX, ERIE, QXO, RKLB, THC, SNOW, NBIS, CUBI, SMR, EBC, NBTB, SPIR, VRSN, SSNC, SKYW, MRLN, HLNE, RHI, CRWV, NTLA, BYD, HCA, YSS, CAR, BKSY, CMCSA, CHTR and LBRDK

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less Fed Chair Uncertainty, Tech/Shipping Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +325 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (DPZ)/4.27
• (NE)/.21
• (VZ)/1.21 

After the Close: 

• (AMKR)/.24
• (AVB)/2.80
• (BBBY)/-.28
• (BRO)/1.36
• (CDNS)/1.88
• (CLS)/2.08
• (CR)/1.45
• (NUE)/2.82
• (PSA)/4.12
• (SANM)/2.40
• (VTR)/.91 

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2/5Y T-Note auctions, Evercore Transport/Logistics Summit, (VMI) annual meeting, (BLD) annual meeting, (GPC) annual meeting and the (WEX) investor meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.75 +1.5 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 44.75 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.%. 
• Crude Oil 93.74/bbl. +.% 
• Gold 4,734.7 USD/t oz. -.%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.70 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.58 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 113.4 -.3%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% unch.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.67% +3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.68%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.2%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.7%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Mideast War Ceasefire Jitters, Global Supply Chain Disruption Worries, Technical Selling, Consumer Discretionary/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.4 +.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 74.5 -2.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .01 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.5 +.3%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.7 +2.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 70.5 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.7 -1.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.9 +3.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.1 -10.5

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 39.7 +11.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(121 of 500 reporting) +25.4% -4.6 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 342.0 +.49:  Growth Rate +23.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.8 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.16% +8.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +314.5% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 821.11 +1.40: Growth Rate +107.4% +1.4 percentage points, P/E 19.6 -.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 49.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.9 -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.4 euros/megawatt-hour +4.2% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 19.9% -1.6 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.2% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.64 +10.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 95.8% (-2.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 91.7%(-2.4 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -230 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -8.0% 2) Software -5.7% 3) Cyber Security -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SRPT, HAE, DHR, LUV, TSLA, GGG, EXTR, LMT, AMSC, PEGA, INFY, TH, SPIR, CBAN, SAP, XPEV, SMR, OSBC, EPAM, ADBE, POET, AMG, INFQ, SMMT, IBM, CCS, CRM, LVS, MPLT, TMO, FCX, RGEN, LWLG, LULU, NBBK, TAL, ALMU, CASH, GRPN, RDW, STRA, YSS, WEX, XNDU, NOW, MEDP and ASGN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) STNE 2) RSP 3) SAP 4) TXN 5) QS

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) MEDP 2) CAR 3) LULU 4) TMO 5) SNOW

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLI 3) XLF 4) FDN 5) XBI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume