Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,638.2 -2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,932.0 +.5%

• NASDAQ 26,136.2 -4.6%

• Russell 2000 2,716.8 -3.2%

• NYSE FANG+ 18,513.1 -5.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 270.2 -10.0%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 34.8 -9.8%

• Wilshire 5000 75,172.7 -1.6%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,875.2 -5.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,505.9 +.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 979.2 +4.8%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 263.8 -2.7% 
  

• NYSE Technology 9,235.4 -9.0%

• Transports 19,810.9 +.1%

• Utilities 1,080.5 +2.4%

• MSCI Europe Banks 128.2 -.3%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 62.8 -6.1%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 263.6 +.02%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 137.8 +.6%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 611,586 +.2%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.1 +114.8%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -728 -70

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.4 +11.7%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 99,060 -9.5%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,889,442 +.6%

• Total Put/Call .92 +6.0%

• OEX Put/Call .77 +4.4%

• Equity Put/Call .78 +12.1%

• NYSE Arms .85 +39.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 128.8 -5.8%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 -7.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +9.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 21.2 +43.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .96 +81.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 15.0 +31.2%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.64 -1.6%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.35 +4.5%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,743.0 +2.6%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 40.0 +4.0

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.923 Trillion -.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$18.355 Million

• AAII % Bulls 38.7 -4.0%

• AAII % Bears 41.6 +6.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (Moved to FEAR from NEUTRAL) -19.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 417.49 +1.5%

• Crude Oil 101.5/bbl. +10.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 324.01 -1.5%

• Natural Gas 3.11 -3.1%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 90.2 USD/Megawatt -1.9% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 88.7 euros/megawatt-hour +10.4%
  

• Heating Oil 490.3 +4.1% 
• Newcastle Coal 154.7 (1,000/metric ton) +3.1%

• Gold 4,160.2 -.9%
• Silver 56.9 -6.3%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 172.0 -1.8%

• Copper 655.8 -2.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 388.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 17,425.0 USD/metric tonne -8.4%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .97(price per million tokens) -.9% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 51.22 +2.4%  

• CME Lumber 535.0 -.4%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,567.1 -.1%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 352.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 428.5 USD/Short Ton -2.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.3 +.9 percentage point

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.1 +13.8%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 342.4 +113.9% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 69.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 45.0% +15.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 149.2 -57.8%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .5 -.3
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(45 of 500 reporting) +47.3% -96.7 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 408.48 +1.65:  Growth Rate +24.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.9 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.31% -6.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,091.13 +5.31: Growth Rate +62.5% +.8 percentage point, P/E 17.6 -.3

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 45.1 +9.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 43.4 -9.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.20 +9.8 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 82.8%(+.5 percentage point) chance of no change, 17.2%(-.5 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 10/28

• US Dollar Index 101.8 -.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,924.9 -.3%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 81,000 -2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 203.72 +.2%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.11 +.61%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 35.25 -10.25 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 5.10% -15.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.02% -5.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.709 Trillion +.1%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $11.312 Billion +46.9%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44. +5.7%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 190.4 -3.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 106.0 -3.0 basis points
• France Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 79.1 -.1% 
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.9 +.5%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.3 +2.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 119.2 +9.2%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 59.5 +1.5%
• Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.1 -1.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.99 +2.0%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.59 -.19%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.9 -.4%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.4% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.9% +30.0 basis points
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% -10.0 basis points
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.05% +3.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.77% +17.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.0 +21.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 30.0 -.5 basis point
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.0 -.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 -.75 basis point

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.5 +6.9% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 66.7 -1.1%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 149.0 -1.4%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 482.0 +9.9% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 237.0 -16.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 71.3 +1.2%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 164.2 +4.7%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 123.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 558.0 -7.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 +4.0 basis points

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.7% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,479.9B -.4%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 198,500 +.1%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 56.0 +1.1%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.52% +7.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 199,200 -2.7%

• Weekly Retail Sales +10.40% +210.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $132.9M -19.9%

• Nationwide Gas $4.33/gallon -.04/gallon 
• Nationwide Diesel $6.33/gallon +.05/gallon 

• Baltic Dry Index 2,545.0 -12.8%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,485.4/40 ft Box +3.1%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,922.6 +.5%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 550.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 93.4 -15.6%

• Rail Freight Carloads 302,252 +1.1%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,419,474 -17.0% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.8 -1.1 points
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 43.0% +2.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +.5%

Worst Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth -6.5%

Leading Sectors

• Energy +5.5%

• Healthcare Providers +5.2%
• Foods +4.8%

• Insurance +4.2%
  

• Medical Equipment +3.9%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Cyber Security -10.3%

• Alt Energy -11.0%
  

• AI/Innovation -14.1%

• Space -14.3%
  

• Computer Hardware -15.5%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (10)

• HPK, CRGY, FMX, KRMN, INDB, CNQ, BP, NGL, TALO and CCI

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (70)

• SNDX, AXON, CSQR, MAN, MESO, SKHY, ASST, STX, HPE, TENB, TTMI, ANL, COHR, HSAI, ICHR, WULF, ESTC, CRWD, PAYS, KARD, NET, AZTA, FLEX, NTSK, PAYS, FLGT, FTH, HNRG, VKTX, DRTS, GDS, IONQ, SNOW, TWST, MDB, AAOI, CELC, AI, ATTO, WSE, MSTR, S, CBRS, CDNL, OKTA, MRNA, ERAS, GLXY, FOXF, IREN, SDGR, APLD, XE, VICR, TWLO, SLS, SHAZ, NBIS, NVAX, CRWV, DNA, TLK and OMER

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Fears, Mideast War-Induced Inflation Worries, AI Infrastructure Buildout Concerns, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -214 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -17 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Modestly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/biotech/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CLF)/.21
• (FITB)/.83 

After the Close: 

• (CCK)/2.26
• (RLI)/.54
• (STLD)/5.47
• (WAL)/2.42
• (WTFC)/3.31
• (ZION)/1.66 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Oct. is estimated to fall to 31.0 versus 32.0 in Sept. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Goldman Sachs Metals & Mining Conference, (AEHR) annual meeting, (TTD) shareholders meeting and the (JEF) investor meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• Lousy schools are the focus of the student protests gripping France, but untenable budget deficits and the soaring cost of borrowing are making solutions harder to find. 
• Morgan Stanley is leading an equity and debt fundraising for the first major new US oil refinery in half a century, according to the company behind the $4 billion fuel-making development. 
• In this weekly documentary, we tally up the unprecedented cash being spent to shape the future of federal regulation of AI. 
• The race for humanoid robots faces two powerhouses: China dominates hardware and components, while the U.S. holds the advantage in AI models. The market could surpass $5 trillion by 2050. 
• MSCI adopted new rules that could push Strategy out of its global equity benchmarks, potentially triggering billions of dollars in stock sales and adding fresh pressure to the financing model behind Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin holdings. 
• Economic growth is up but sentiment is down. We dig into the latest US consumer data with @sarahsholder, @boes_ and @CLindblad1. 
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.     

• @ZeroHedge

• Tesla's Flying Car Is Real! 
• *TRUMP: PLENTY OF OTHER TARGETS BESIDES REFINERIES TO HIT. *TRUMP: ZELENSKYY MORE DIFFICULT THAN PUTIN TO DEAL WITH. *TRUMP: ZELENSKYY IS NOT A GOOD GUY TO DEAL WITH. *TRUMP: NEED AN ELECTION IN UKRAINE.
• *TRUMP: MAY HAVE TO GO TO PICKAXE MOUNTAIN. *TRUMP: DON'T SEE TROOPS ON THE GROUND IN IRAN.
• *TRUMP: WOULDN'T USE NUCLEAR BOMB ON IRAN.
• Samsung Electronics has scaled back its Q4 mid-to-low-end smartphone production plans due to supply shortages and price hikes in glass fabric for copper clad laminate (CCL), a core raw material for PCBs. Compounded by surging memory chip prices, rising component costs have severely squeezed margins, rendering higher production volumes unprofitable for the vendor.
• These Are The Top Races To Watch This Midterm.
• SOME INVESTORS DIAL BACK ANTHROPIC VALUATION EXPECTATIONS AMID DISAPPOINTING RESULTS, MARKET SELLOFF: RTRS.
• BlackRock's Record Asset Holdings Are Half The Size Of US Economy.
• NOAA Winter Outlook: Record El Niño Points To Wetter South, Warmer North.
• The Politics Of Denial: When Americans Stop Seeing The Warning Signs.
• 'AI Jesus' Saves The World Again (But Tech Still Lagged); Bond Yields Tumble As Oil Spikes. 

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Is the AI sector losing its rose-colored glow?
• Friday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session. 
• Stock futures are little changed as S&P 500 heads for losing week: Live updates.  
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Interactive Brokers, J.B. Hunt, Alcoa and more. 
• Harvard’s endowment jumps 27% in fiscal 2026, lifted by SpaceX as top holding. 

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.5 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 37.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 90.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%. 
• Crude Oil 97.38/bbl. -.6%. 
• Gold 4,176.20 USD/t oz. +.2%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.09 +.08%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.55 -.11%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 131.3 +.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.08% +2.0 basis points.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.01 +4.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.9 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.58%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.04%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Falling Long-Term Rates, Declining Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.0 +1.0%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.3 +2.2% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .40 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 unch.
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.7 +.6% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 161.0 +.6% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 59.7 +1.4% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 85.3 -2.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.2 +6.0

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 45.0 -2.4

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 26.3 -1.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(38 of 500 reporting) +49.9% -4.2 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 409.95 +.49:  Growth Rate +24.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.9 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.29% -5.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +1,013.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,089.68 +.73: Growth Rate +62.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.5 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.10 -11.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 33.25 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 171.2 -1.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 85.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.9% +.6%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +3.6% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 5.09% -9.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.93 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th FOMC meeting: 63.6% (+1.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th meeting: 43.5%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,470 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -70 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +32 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware -4.4% 2) Lithography/Photonics -4.2% 3) Space -3.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMAT, NET, MKSI, WMB, TTMI, HAFN, CLS, FLEX, DOCN, STRL, ENTG, LFUS, LRCX, GDS, MOD, GTX, WDC, DHT, SIMO, JCI, LITE, OUST, STX, CMBT, NVT, AAOI, IOND, FRVO, VG, SHIP, ANET, CAMT, KEYS, SANM, MXL, FRO, VRT, AEHR, ONTO, ECO, AEIS, HPE, ASX, PRIM, FORM, COHR, AESI, COHU, LSCC, VIAV, ACMR, LBRT, SITM, SEI, RKLB, DELL, MTSI, BOT, AXTI, TH, PENG, SMTC, QMCO, MICR and MAN

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IYR 2) TSEM 3) URA 4) WOLF 5) NYT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RKLB 2) FMC 3) DELL 4) SNDK 5) NBIS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) DRAM 3) XLI 4) XME 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume