Friday, February 06, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,912.3 -.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 50,008.1 +2.2%
  • NASDAQ 22,958.4 -2.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,664.6 +2.0%
  • NYSE FANG+ 15,565.9 -5.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 259.8 -1.9%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 31.4 -4.9%
  • Wilshire 5000 68,455.7 -.1%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,585.8 -2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,206.0 +2.1%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 983.5 +5.8%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 258.2 -2.3%
  • NYSE Technology 7,091.6 -4.4%
  • Transports 19,866.1 +8.7%
  • Utilities 1,088.6 -.23%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 122.6 -1.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 59.9 +1.4%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 254.03 -1.0%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 131.36 -.24%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 601,036 -.3%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.1 +118.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -389 -1,400
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -12.04 -14.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 96,982 +23.1%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,035,649 +3.6%
  • Total Put/Call .87 unch.
  • OEX Put/Call .74 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 117.0 -10.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 +21.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 100.8 +2.8%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .54 -26.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -3.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 +2.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.48 +44.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 14.6 +.1%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.83 -3.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 -1.4%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,059.8 +2.0%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  84.9 -7.7
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.797 Trillion +1.1%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.596 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 39.7 -10.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 309.4 -4.4%
  • Crude Oil 63.56/bbl. -2.7%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 195.2 +.7%
  • Natural Gas 3.43 -22.2%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 70.8 USD/Megawatt +.6% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.69 euros/megawatt-hour -10.3%
  • Heating Oil 241.4 -12.4% 
  • Newcastle Coal 117.4 (1,000/metric ton) +.8%
  • Gold 4,954.6 +1.3%
  • Silver 77.2 -9.3%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 168.7 -2.0%
  • Copper 587.9 -1.4%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 375.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.6 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 22,325.0 USD/metric tonne +.2%
  • CME Lumber 584.5 -1.3%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,291.3 +.2%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 300.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +4.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.8 +1.4 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.13 -14.5%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 193.3 -20.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 2.1 -17.8%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(291 of 500 reporting) +13.6% -1.7 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 317.43 +2.23:  Growth Rate +17.9% +.8 percentage point, P/E 21.4 -.7
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% -46.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% +.5 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 501.25 +7.19: Growth Rate +22.0% +1.8 percentage points, P/E 28.7 -2.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 -.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.1 +1.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.4 +.3 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 17.9%(+4.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 82.1%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 3/18/26
  • US Dollar Index 97.6 +.5%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,858.7 -.25%
  • Bitcoin/USD 70,334 -8.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 211.0 +1.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.94 -.7%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 71.0 unch.
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.21% -3.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.57% -7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.558 Trillion +.29%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.330 Billion +15.0%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.1+6.6%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 182.9 +1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 63.0 +2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 16.15 -.03%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.44 -2.2%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 126.5 -2.8%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 70.4 -.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.0 +1.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 -.1%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 118.74 -.74%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.2% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.8% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.84% unch.: CPI YoY +2.36% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.38 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 4.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.75 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 2.75 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.5 +2.1%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 173.0 +.6%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 505.5 +4.6% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 251.0 -5.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 53.55 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 126.6 -.7%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 101.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 604.0 +7.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .49 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,410.8B +.8%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 212,250 +2.9%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 45.3 -19.7%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.22% +1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 330,800 -9.0%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.3% +.2 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +14.0% +18.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $76.5M -38.8%
  • Nationwide Gas $2.90/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,002.0 +13.6%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $1,958.6/40 ft Box -7.0%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,122.2 -4.6%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 75.0 +50.0%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 108.7 +26.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 243,173 -8.9%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,324,236 +34.4% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -5.0 percentage points
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +3.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -2.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Airlines +14.7%
  • Construction +8.4%
  • Homebuilding +8.2%
  • Regional Banks +7.3%
  • Oil Service +5.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Video Gaming -5.2%
  • Internet -6.4%
  • Digital Health -7.6%
  • Social Media -7.8%
  • Software -9.2%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (129)
  • ROIV, ALGT, FN, EZPW, COHR, TER, ARW, TSEM, IPGP, MRVL, LITE, KLAC, IMVT, FLS, SMFG, LPG, GEN, LASR, VICR, SM, BTU, DAL, WTTR, ATR, AVGO, XPO, GLW, EHC, PENN, KRUS, NSIT, MT, QFIN, LIND, AN, CCL, CUK, LBRT, CAT, LI, OLED, BLTE, GPGI, WMG, MOD, INTC, MYRG, WST, KMT, KD, SANM, CALX, C, WEX, SWK, DAKT, AGCO, KGS, HRI, FTI, MPWR, URI, ESAB, CLS, HNRG, WCC, RRX, GFF, CLS, TSM, VPG, OSK, CALX, VET, SDRL, ATI, ALGN, BLBD, MAMA, CALX, PAAS, AROC, WFRD, ENPH, AMTM, SNDK, EQNR, LECO, TKR, YUMC, HMC, NOV, MMM, DLR, BKD, ESE, CTNM, DHT, THR, DBD, VRE, ASX, GLNG, WMS, MBC, DHT, SITM, CCSI, KGC, PHYS, AVT, COLM, TEX, WHD, BANC, WOLF, VOD and AZN
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (24)
  • ASTH, MCHP, UNM, HIMS, AB, AFRM, TEAM, OMCL, ERO, GILT, CNC, AMZN, NWS, AMZN, NWSA, FSLR, NIQ, VRSN, ILMN, QLYS, DOCS, HUBG, PI and MOH 
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Earnings Outlook Optimism, Diminishing AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Crypto Bounce, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +2,120 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +115 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BDX)/2.81
  • (CLF)/-.62
  • (CNA)/1.29
  • (PGY)/.34
  • (SBH)/.46
  • (WAT)/4.51 
After the Close: 
  • (ACM)/1.17
  • (AMKR)/.44
  • (GT)/.49
  • (MTW)/.27
  • (MEDP)/4.19
  • (ON)/.62
  • (UPWK)/.31
  • (VNO)/.57 
Economic Release 

11:00 am EST

  • The NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for Jan.  

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, BofA Financial Services Conference, UBS Financial Services Conference, BTIG Medtech/Digital Health/Life Sciences/Diagnostic Tools Conference and the Evercore Travel/Transport Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, February 05, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @TheSCIF
  • @allenanalysis
  • @mitchellvii 
  • @LeadingReport
  • @TheStormRedux
  • Trump attorney @christina_bobb makes a very astute observation after the breaking news from @canncon today that Sen. Perdue claimed under oath that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp told Georgia investigators not to look into evidence of election fraud. Christina points out that Brian Kemp was the Secretary of State (not Governor yet) in 2018, contracted with Dominion to bring in the voting machines, changed the voting centers to big arenas rather than counting at the precinct, proceeded to win the Governors race (to which the Dems claimed the election was rigged) and then shuts down the investigation into the 2020 election. “There’s a lot of weirdness going on with Brian Kemp, Brad Raffensperger… and Chris Carr, the Attorney General…” What was Kemp hiding? It certainly appears that he at a minimum helped steal the election. The good news is that it sounds like we are gonna find out definitively what happened soon. (video)
  • @Real_RobN
  • @mattvanswol
  • @RealLindellTV
  • @JackStr42679640
  • @amitisinvesting
  • @HustleBitch_
  • POLICE JUST LAUNCHED REAL-TIME SKY SURVEILLANCE - WITH ONE CLICK, A LIVE DRONE WATCHES ANY NEIGHBORHOOD IN 150 SECONDS. This isn’t a pilot program. This isn’t a proposal. This is live and operational. In this clip, Dearborn Police Department demonstrates a system where drones are pre-positioned across the city, ready to launch on demand to any location in under 2.5 minutes. Traffic stop? Click. Call for service? Click. A drone lifts off automatically and streams live aerial video directly to command centers and officers’ devices - before a patrol car even arrives. They call it “first responder support.” They call it “accountability.” They say residents can check a transparency dashboard after the drone is already overhead. But watch closely. This isn’t response anymore. This is push-button sky surveillance. If a drone can be watching your neighborhood this fast… who decides when it goes up - and when it becomes permanent? (video)
  • FBI DIRECTOR KASH PATEL SWEARS UNDER OATH: “NO CREDIBLE INFORMATION EPSTEIN TRAFFICKED TO OTHER INDIVIDUALS” - ON THE RECORD. (video)
  • @TheProjectUnity
  • @WallStMav
  • France has surrendered as a country. They have raised the white flag, they are giving it all away to the foreigners. BREAKING: The Law Commission of the French Parliament has adopted a bill that will grant the right to vote and stand for election in municipal elections to non-EU foreign nationals residing in France The French Parliament will now vote on it on Feb. 12th. (video)
  • @TrumplicanWINN
  • @Mia_Stretch
  • @Michael7ucci
  • @nicksortor
  • @StockSavvyShay
  • @Listen_2learn
  • @amuse
  • @davenewworld_2
  • @SidneyPowell1 
  • @JohnBasham
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.5% to -.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%. 
  • Gold 4,827.2 USD/t oz. -1.2%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.93 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.14 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 97.5 -.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.18% unch.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.56% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.0 +1.0%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.03%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.29%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.