Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 7,580.1 -.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 51,770.3 -.9%

• NASDAQ 25,437.0 -2.0%

• Russell 2000 2,811.8 +1.3%

• NYSE FANG+ 17,595.0 -3.4%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 277.5 +1.3%
• Vaneck Social Sentiment 33.0 -3.7%

• Wilshire 5000 74,707.7 -.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,735.6 -1.7%

• Russell 1000 Value 2,542.6 +.5%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 1,022.8 +1.6%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 261.1 -.3% 
  

• NYSE Technology 8,785.2 -4.1%

• Transports 20,329.3 +1.4%

• Utilities 1,111.5 +1.2%

• MSCI Europe Banks 122.9 -1.9%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 60.99 -1.6%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 260.5 -.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 136.3 -.2%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 614,248 +.4%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 5.5 -48.6%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -71 +626

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -11.5 +3.0%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 89,325 -11.0%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,835,144 -3.4%

• Total Put/Call .93 +1.2%

• OEX Put/Call .32 -9.1%

• Equity Put/Call .83 +3.8%

• NYSE Arms .91 -6.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 125.1 -.8%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .84 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.11 -7.0 basis points

• Volatility(VIX) 19.4 -.2%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .79 +24.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 15.6 +4.0%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.60 -2.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.88 -7.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 18,307.1 +.7%
• CFTC Weekly Equity Positioning Sentiment Gauge(0-100) 45.0 unch.

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.901 Trillion -.5%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$7.090 Million

• AAII % Bulls 37.8 +2.4%

• AAII % Bears 41.4 -9.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 26.0 (Moved to FEAR from EXTREME FEAR) +5.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 411.10 -1.8%

• Crude Oil 104.12/bbl. -.5%

• Reformulated Gasoline 331.20 +3.1%

• Natural Gas 2.90 +9.7%
• US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 83.7 USD/Megawatt -5.6% 
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 103.9 euros/megawatt-hour +10.2%
  

• Heating Oil 479.1 -4.2% 
• Newcastle Coal 151.8 (1,000/metric ton) -1.8%

• Gold 3,874.6 -3.1%
• Silver 49.1 -8.9%
  

• Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 173.2 +.1%

• Copper 648.2 -.2%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 400.5 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%

• China Iron Ore Spot 91.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 14,975.0 USD/metric tonne -14.1%
• Silicon Data LLM Token Expenditure Index .91(price per million tokens) -2.2% 
• inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR5 16Gb 1Gx16 53.12 +1.7%  

• CME Lumber 521.5 +.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,493.1 -3.0%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 345.0 USD/Short Ton unch.
• US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 435.0 USD/Short Ton unch.

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.2% -30.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 12.8 +1.7 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 3.0 -8.3%
• Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 165.3 -32.5% 
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 69.0 +2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 45.0% +20.0 percentage points

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 251.1 -2.9%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.2
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(301 of 500 reporting) +29.4% -8.6 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 413.40 +1.35:  Growth Rate +25.9% +.4 percentage point, P/E 18.4 -.2
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.40% +3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(6 of 10 reporting) +41.2% -458.6 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,097.07 +3.67: Growth Rate +63.4% +.6 percentage point, P/E 16.1 -.6

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.4 +8.0 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.6 -7.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.7 +7.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.5-3.75%, 28.0%(+4.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 72.0%(+3.1 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.0-4.25% on 12/9

• US Dollar Index 101.9 +.2%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,923.0 -.41%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 77,164 -4.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 202.0 +.2%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.06 -.23%

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 33.75 +3.5 basis points

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.93% -6.0 basis points
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.85% +1.0 basis point

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.699 Trillion -.12%
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $9.501 Billion +6.3%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 46.67 +.84%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 194.82 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 -4.0 basis points
• France Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 97.20 -5.9% 
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 26.0 -6.5%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 37.56 +4.2%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 145.55 +21.4%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 61.90 -4.1%
• Saudi Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.74 -6.0%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.09 -5.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.48 -.08%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.9 -4.5%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.4% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +2.9% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.9% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.20% +15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.74% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.59 -10.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -1.0 basis point

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 15.75 -9.25 basis points
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 unch.

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 62.07 -2.0% 
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.73 +4.7%

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 99.0 -43.0%
• High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 471.06 +.02% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 271.0 -8.0

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 74.0 -4.9%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 169.1 -1.8%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 125.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 558.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .53 unch.

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +5.7% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,499.0B -.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 197,750 -.5%

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.1% unch.
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.1 -1.7%

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.37% -8.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 195,000 +3.4%

• Weekly Retail Sales +9.60% -10.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +12.0% +2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $142.4M +16.0%

• Nationwide Gas $4.21/gallon -.08/gallon 
• Nationwide Diesel $6.32/gallon -.00/gallon 

• Baltic Dry Index 2,712.0 +2.0%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,429.3/40 ft Box -3.4%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,881.8 +.3%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 500.0 +3.1%
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 89.9 -4.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 303,677 -1.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,516,359 +18.8% 
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.3 +.3 point
• Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 41.0% -1.0 percentage point

Best Performing Style

• Small-Cap Growth +1.9%

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -1.7%

Leading Sectors

• Pharma +6.0%

• Construction +5.0%
• Biotech +4.7%

• Airlines +4.5%
  

• Restaurants +4.4%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Cyber Security -4.8%

• I-Banks -5.2%
  

• Internet -5.3%

• Software -5.7%
  

• Social Media -7.2%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (66)

• GDYN, OSPN, CDNA, CPRI, FDXF, MEOH, REGN, GPN, BTSG, GDDY, OLN, DFIN, HGV, RKT, CVLG, MHK, AZN, VLTO, SPOT, TMUS, RIVN, AN, COLM, BBIO, IMO, TYL, REAL, TGTX, STGW, BAH, ATR, EXEL, MTZ, SKY, TAK, ACN, MAX, CMCSA, ERIE, CHDN, TRN, MGM, MDLZ, PRG, ROP, UPBD, LXU, XPO, LNG, ICE, HAYW, VRTX, OSK, FIS, HP, EHC, PATK, KYMR, RSG, LLY, FISV, BSY, INCY, GILD, BALL and WY

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (71)

• SIBN, PSLV, ALNY, RVTY, DT, TGS, WPM,  FND, CMPR, EGO, TSM, AEM, SYK, INVX, ASML, ERO, RBC, KGC, DBD, PTCT, FFIV, HBM, MTSI, PIPR, SNX, SSMR, SNOW, TER, SCCO, SPTX, UMC, TBBK, ALGM, MMSI, NEXA, LAUR, CCJ, FTRE, HMY, FIGR, ESTA, NWG, RMD, ARIS, GTES, VECO, HPQ, LSCC, ARM, MRVL, FORM, VIAV, APP, AAON, POWI, SXT, COIN, ACLS, AMD, ASST, RSI, CSQR, QCOM, PRLB, OPRA, TSEM, WNC, DDOG, ENOV, SNDK, TXG, MLYS, SKYW, TWLO, AUGO, BLSH, TFII, BFAM, AGIO, ILMN, INTC and RDDT

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Mideast War Resumption Fears, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Concerns, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,040 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -100 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -28 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my energy/biotech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 25% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open: 

• (CHKP)/2.48
• (CHH)/2.29
• (CIFR)/-.25
• (CNA)/1.21
• (EL)/.51
• (FOXA)/2.08
• (KRYS)/1.79
• (MAR)/2.84
• (TEM)/-.09
• (TSEM)/1.07 

After the Close: 

• (AAPL)/1.99
• (BWXT)/1.18
• (CLX)/1.07
• (FN)/4.19
• (HNGE)/.58
• (JAZZ)/-4.05
• (LSCC)/.55
• (MTCH)/.71
• (ON)/.88
• (PLTR)/.41
• (ROKU)/.53
• (RIG)/.02
• (VRTX)/4.80
• (WMB)/.54 

Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for Oct. is estimated to rise to 54.7 versus 54.5 in Sept.
• ISM Prices Paid for Oct. is estimated to fall to 77.5 versus 77.9 in Sept. 
• Construction Spending MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.9% gain in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update and the Loan Officer survey could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Global Govt Cyberattack Warnings, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.5 +.5%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 68.8 +1.6% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .37 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .07 -3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.7 -1.2% 
• Emerging Market CDS Index 164.1 -1.6% 
• Israel Sovereign CDS 59.1 -3.9% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 unch.
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 86.1 +1.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.9 +.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 2.5 -2.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.0 +1.3
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(261 of 500 reporting) +25.2% -12.7 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 413.45 +.38:  Growth Rate +26.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.7 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.41% +2.0 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +53.3% -446.5 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 1,097.42 +.96: Growth Rate +63.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 16.6 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .92 unch.
• US Yield Curve 33.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.25 basis point
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 175.3 -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 98.6 euros/megawatt-hour -2.1%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 10.7% -.2%
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.2% -.1 percentage point
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.97% -5.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.61 -9.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Jan. 27th FOMC meeting: 58.6% (+1.5 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for March 17th meeting: 45.2%(-3.8 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 3.75-4.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +49 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -144 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -10 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +148 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 50% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -1.7%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Software -4.2% 2) Gold & Silver -3.7% 3) AI Innovation -3.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• AMZN, TTMI, DMC, PSLV, DBVT, NMRK, CSQR, NEWT, RDDT, FN, EDU, ORCL, PBI, TT, CRWV, PBI, OLED, CCS, STRZ, EGO, TWLO, KBR, BWA, BAX, FTI, WULF, CCB, XP, PINS, KGC, NVCR, RSI, HTO, NSP, TNET, APMD, PLXS, APMD, MYE, AGI, SCI, HONA, CAT, ALGM, MNRO, FTRE, FORM, GOOG, MRVL, PRLB, CMPR, ALKT, FTNT, SFM, ALNY and NOW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XRX 2) SHOE 3) AUR 4) CART 5) FTNT

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CAT 2) SFM 3) NOW 4) GOOG 5) HONA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) ARKK 3) KRE 4) XBI 5) LIT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Defense +3.4% 2) Pharma +3.0% 3) Gambling +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KPLT, GKOS, CROX, PRCH, PURR, MAX, CVNA, GEN, MESO, FTAI, BOOT, UPBD, NCLH, DFIN, HII, DRS, INSM, FCN, TXT, HAPN, FLS, AVEX, CHDN, BLDR, BBW, EPAC, GVA, CMG, MIR, ROAD, ARHS, PWP, IPX, ATI, BC, RAPP, JMKE, REPL, FWRG, CAKE, IPX, LXU, HAWK, DVA, LHX, EHC, LNG, STNG, CRS, TPG, NRDS, ARLO, TENB, LLY, KTOS, BAND, OWL, H, OSW, CSL, FIGS, LION, ICE, VMC, TEX, AGCO, WHR, MLM, ATEC, CSTL, JLL, AWI, VKTX, DVA, KIDS, FER, LFUS, ECHO, MA, GNK, IP, TXRH, DASH, GNK, MA, TXRH, FND, SIRI, WCC, EBAY, AM, QNST, HAYW, UFPI, DB, BA, AMRZ, WEC, PWR, EG, CLPT, CWK, FVR, SAIA, REAL, KLAR, SAFE, REAL, TYL, GM and WMG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) XYL 2) ANGX 3) SOLS 4) BHC 5) SYK 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) GKOS 2) PRCH 3) TDOC 4) GEN 5) CROX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) IBB 4) IGV 5) XLK

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume