Friday, March 20, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,504.8 -1.9%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 45,480.4 -2.2%
  • NASDAQ 21,611.0 -2.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,431.6 -1.9%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,185.6 -2.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 247.7 -3.5%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 29.46 -3.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 64,227.9 -1.9%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,301.4 -2.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,080.2 -1.3%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 912.1 -4.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 248.4 +2.5%
  • NYSE Technology 6,841.3 -1.9%
  • Transports 17,765.7 +.2%
  • Utilities 1,128.6 -4.5%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 105.9 -.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 55.8 -2.0%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 251.73 -.91%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 132.30 -.1%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 598,553 -.3%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.1 -4.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -588 -342
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -25.1 -20.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 228,015 +32.5%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,051,321 -1.1%
  • Total Put/Call .95 +6.8%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.33 +33.3%
  • ISE Sentiment 120.0 -8.6%
  • NYSE Arms .66 -5.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.5 +4.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .24 -14.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .96 -29.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 27.9 -.2%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .86 -47.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 30.2 +9.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.47 -.8%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.80 +1.6%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,532.6 -1.5%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  60.2 -6.8
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.856 Trillion +.5%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$1.338 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 30.4 -4.7%
  • AAII % Bears 52.0 +12.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 17.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -4.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 364.2 -.2%
  • Crude Oil $98.3/bbl. +7.7%
  • 1-Year Crude $75.97/bbl. +4.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 331.5 +7.6%
  • Natural Gas 3.10 -1.2%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 74.9 USD/Megawatt +1.6% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 59.3 euros/megawatt-hour +18.2%
  • Heating Oil 467.0 +16.1% 
  • Newcastle Coal 146.8 (1,000/metric ton) +6.4%
  • Gold 4,512.2 -9.7%
  • Silver 68.3 -14.8%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 161.5 -5.5%
  • Copper 533.3 -5.8%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 380.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.7 USD/Metric Tonne +5.3%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 23,625.0 USD/metric tonne +11.1%
  • inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 67.6 -.7%  
  • CME Lumber 609.0 +1.7%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,375.4 +1.0%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 305.0 USD/Short Ton +.8%
  • US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 660.0 USD/Short Ton +9.5% 
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.3% -.4 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 18.5 -9.1 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.6 -2.6%
  • Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 248.8 -35.5% 
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 +6.0
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 95.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 388.0 -10.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 -.3
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 500 reporting) +103.6% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.43 +6.88:  Growth Rate +19.7% +2.5 percentage points, P/E 19.9 -.6
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 14.97% +19.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +28.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 529.42 +4.15: Growth Rate +33.1% +1.1 percentage points, P/E 27.4 -.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.2 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.0 -15.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 53.0 +12.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 87.6%(-6.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 12.4%(+12.4 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 4/29
  • US Dollar Index 99.5 -1.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,844.4 +.01%
  • Bitcoin/USD 69,594.4 -2.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 209.6 +1.0%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.76 -.41%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 49.25 -9.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.38% +27.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.54% +13.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.609 Trillion +.15%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.902 Billion +1.0%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.0 +3.1%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 209.3 +6.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 91.0 +15.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.0 +15.1%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.0 +4.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 149.6 +6.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 84.3 +2.0%
  • Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 88.7 +27.0%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.5 +16.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.85 -1.5%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 111.66 -6.2%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.8% -10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.1% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +2.9% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +3.02% +15.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 5.32 +86.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 +4.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 10.0 +8.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.0 -.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 65.3 +5.7% (new series)
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 71.6 +2.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 123.0 -23.4%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 531.4 -2.2% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259.0 -18.0 
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 77.6 +12.6%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 195.6 +27.1%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 124.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 585.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .51 +2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.3% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,395.3B -1.0%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 210,750 -.4%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.9 -1.8%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.35% +18.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 347,100 -10.9%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.3% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +11.0% +3.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $125.1M -11.9%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.91/gallon +.28/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 2,057.0 +1.4%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,172.3/40 ft Box +2.3%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,120.6 +4.5%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 245.0 -24.6%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 131.7 +4.6%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 280,438 -.94%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,817,785 +9.7% 
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.7 +.2  
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 45.0% +1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.1%
Worst Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -1.7%
Leading Sectors
  • Energy +5.0%
  • Shipping +4.8%
  • Oil Service +4.4%
  • AI/Innovation +2.1%
  • Networking +1.4%
Lagging Sectors
  • Foods -3.8%
  • Social Media -3.9%
  • Homebuilding -4.2%
  • Nuclear -4.9%
  • Gold & Silver -13.5%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (34)
  • YSS, PL, NSP, SEDG, VG, SM, SCHL, ETON, TALO, CRK, ARX, CAL, SPIR, DELL, CDNL, FLY, CRGY, BWIN, BCRX, MTDR, INR, BKSY, GLNG, REPX, BKSY, LPLA, APA, FCN, SNDX, OKE and T
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (79)
  • MIRM, DMRA, DFH, TTAM, BHP, SMTC, RIO, FNV, BLD, ASIX, CIM, HSBC, TT, LTC, ES, DHI, AMT, GFI, PONY, LOGI, DX, VITL, OR, CCEP, OR, ALM, VITL, WPM, SNDA, WELL, QDEL, NGG, FNF, UFPI, CGAU, SAP, APG, BKH, GLW, BETA, TRDA, KLAR, DMRA, STM, NWE, TECK, CRWD, ASML, EMBJ, NLY, RRX, BETA, EPR, TRDA, CACC, UEC, LE, GPRE, EQPT, ARR, IPX, HNRG, EH, XPEV, GDS, ELE, MOS, DY, AEHR, VST, SPXC, FLOC, PICS, AAOI, UMAC and SMCI
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Falling into Afternoon on Surging Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Mideast Prolonged War Fears, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,760 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -218 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Feb. 

10:00 am EST

  • Construction Spending MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

  • (JFB) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 update and the TD Cowen Distinctive Industrials/Infrastructure Services Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, March 19, 2026

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @DiscloseTV
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @nogps1
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @RenzTom
  • @WallStreetApes
  • This is why Democrats were so mad about the money from USAID getting shut off. US Intelligence intercepted communication that “a foreign power was discussing routing USAID money to Joe Biden's campaign in 2024”. USAID was a Democrat global money laundering operation. (video)
  • @TheSCIF
  • Dominion emails show ties in foreign countries and internet access on an OPEN remote system. Emails mention locations and equipment in Belgrade, Serbia, Europe, and Shanghai, China. "...when we are sending election results through INTERNET (from tabulators or RTM), this is NOT closed system anymore." Any internet access or connections were previously denied. We now know for a fact that these machines were always connected to the internet. (pic)
  • @BreannaMorello
  • @DiedSuddenly_
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @mikebenzcyber
  • @ExxAlerts
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @TeamOverhaulGA
  • @TPV_John
  • @thematrixb0t
  • @illuminatibot
  • @negligible_cap
  • @Worldsource24
  • @ggreenwald
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @DiligentDenizen
  • Kash Patel is reportedly SHUTTING DOWN DNI investigations in to foreign involvement of Charlie Kirk's assassination —per Daily Mail. The news comes after reports he limited interdepartment access to the case yesterday. Why would he do that? This is so relevant today after Joe Kent's resignation.
  • @ThierryBorgeat
  • @VigilantFox
  • @SenTuberville
  • @OcrazioCornPop
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.5 +7.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 49.5 +1.25 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.84%. 
  • Crude Oil 93.42/bbl. -2.8% 
  • Gold 4,685.0 USD/t oz. +1.7%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.09%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.42 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 102.3 -.3%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.25% -2.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.54% n/a. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.6 -1.7%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.82%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by transport and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.