Thursday, November 28, 2019

Friday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.06 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.18%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.35%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of ntoe
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Black Friday retail results and the German Unemployment rate could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.22 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.02%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (DAKT)/.16
  • (DE)/2.14
  • (FRO)/.03
After the Close:
  • None of ntoe
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 3Q GDP QoQ is estimated to rise +1.9% versus a prior estimate of a +1.9% gain.
  • 3Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a prior estimate of a +2.9% gain.
  • 3Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +1.7% versus a prior estimate of a +1.7% gain.
  • 3Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +2.2% versus a prior estimate of a +2.2% gain.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Oct. is estimated to fall -.9% versus a -1.2% decline in Sept.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in Sept.
  • Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.6% decline in Sept. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 221K versus 227K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1691K versus 1695K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for Nov. is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 43.2 in Oct.
10:00 am EST
  • Personal Income for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Sept.
  • Personal Spending for Oct. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
  • The PCE Core MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in Sept. 
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +1.5% gain in Sept.
2:00 pm EST
  • US Fed Beige Book release.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Japan Retail Trade report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the $32B 7Y T-Note auction could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Activity, Buyout Speculation, Short-Covering, Retail/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: About Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.82 -.42%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.76 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.99 -.43%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.39 -.79%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 79.0 -81
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +13.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.56 +62.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.47 -1.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 618.0 +.60%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.94 -1.93%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 154.0 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.09 -.43%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 203.04 -.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.03 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 34.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.23 -.19%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.58% unch.
  • Yield Curve .16+1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 84.08 USD/Metric Tonne -1.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 2.1 +1.9 basis points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.50 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.20 +.6 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.
  • 11.7% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 25.4% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +46 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +10 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/retail/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value unch.
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -1.8% 2) Computer Hardware -1.7% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.0%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • ZYXI, BSM, AMBA, HPE, BECN, PANW, DLTR and MOV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DLTR 2) DKS 3) PANW 4) BBY 5) VMW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AIRG 2) MOV 3) MTSC 4) FMCC 5) IRBT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) Restaurants +1.1% 3) Retail +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CCXI, DKS, ARWR, NTNX, BBY, DTIL, BUYL, YMAB, DY, ALEC, BBBY, GBT, RVLV, FIZZ, EVER, ALNY, MNTA, CG, ICPT, USCR, NSTG, ALLO, GES, INMD, AAN, AXNX, FOE, HRL, ABMD, INTU, VAC and CMG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DKS 2) DLTR 3) BBY 4) MOS 5) ADI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NTNX 2) DKS 3) CCXI 4) DY 5)BBY
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, November 25, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     
  • Asian Stocks Advance Amid Trade Optimism, M&A. Asian stocks gained Tuesday amid optimism over U.S.-China trade talks and a fresh wave of merger and acquisition activity. The yen slipped. Shares climbed in Tokyo and Sydney, and were little changed in Seoul. U.S. futures were flat. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Indexes reached all-time highs, with tech shares leading gains. Among the M&A deals, Charles Schwab Corp. agreed to buy TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., while LVMH is purchasing Tiffany & Co. Treasuries were steady. Topix index rose 0.6% as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.6%. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.3%. Hang Seng Index futures added 0.2%. S&P 500 futures were flat. The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.8%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 39.0 -.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.36 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/.24
  • (AMWD)/1.74
  • (ADI)/1.22
  • (BBY)/1.03
  • (BURL)/1.40
  • (CHS)/-.06
  • (CBRL)/2.04
  • (DKS)/.38
  • (DLTR)/1.13
  • (DY)/.72
  • (EV)/.88
  • (HRL)/.47
  • (MOV)/1.03
  • (TECD)/2.99
  • (TITN)/.47
After the Close:
  • (ADSK)/.72
  • (CENT)/.17
  • (DELL)/1.59
  • (GES)/.18
  • (HPQ)/.58
  • (VMW)/1.43
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Advance Goods Trade Deficit for Oct. is estimated at -$71.0B versus -$70.4B in Sept.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Sept.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.4% decline in Sept.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
10:00 am EST
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 5.0 versus 8.0 in Oct.
  • New Home Sales for Oct. is estimated to rise to 707K versus 701K in Sept.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Nov. is estimated to rise to 127.0 versus 125.9 in Oct.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Brainard speaking, German Retail Sales report, $41B 5Y T-Note auction and the US weekly retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.