Monday, November 25, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Optimism, Buyout Speculation, Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 11.9 -3.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.52 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.04 -.14%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 42.4 -5.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 160.0 +45
  • Total Put/Call .93 -2.11%
  • NYSE Arms .99 +28.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.53 -2.45%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 615.0 +2.14%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.94 -3.63%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 151.25 -2.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.29 -1.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 203.92 +.59%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 168.40 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -1.25 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 33.25 -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.37 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.58% unch.
  • Yield Curve .15 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.71 USD/Metric Tonne -.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index .2 -3.1 basis points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.40 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.80 +.4 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 unch.
  • 13.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 23.5% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +138 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -1 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/industrial/retail/tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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