Wednesday, November 06, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Profit-Taking, Oil Decline, Energy/Telecom Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Heavy
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.0 -1.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.18 -.25%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.35 +.14%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.68 +1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 89.0 -23
  • Total Put/Call .96 +12.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.52 +82.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.82 +.16%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 506.0 -8.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.09 +4.51%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.5 -.25 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.94 +.67%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 193.75 +.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.36 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.0 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.17 -.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.55% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .23 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 80.52 USD/Metric Tonne +.35%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 7.10 -.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.70 +8.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -23.70 +1.8 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 unch.
  • 29.2% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 41.3% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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