Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:                   
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:   
CNBC.com:
MarketWatch.com: 
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.75 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.15 -.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,887.0 -27.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.60 -.33%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.04%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (KMX)/1.26
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
7:30 am EST
  • Challenger Job Cuts YoY for March.
8:30 am EST
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 675K versus 684K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 3750K versus 3870K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +1.7% gain in Jan.
  • ISM Manufacturing for March is estimated to rise to 61.5 versus 60.8 in Feb. 
  • ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to fall to 83.5 versus 86.0 in Feb.
Afternoon
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for March is estimated to fall to 83.5 versus 86.0 in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Australia Retail Sales report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the weekly Langer Consumer Comfort Index could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Less European/Emerging Market/US High-Yld Debt Angst, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.1 -2.5%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,913.0 -77.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.42 +.51%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.1 -2.1%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.8 +3.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 105.0 -12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .76 -1.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.43 -85.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.36 -3.75%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 478.70 -.53%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.82 -2.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.99 +.37%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 185.63 -2.91%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.82 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.5 +3.75 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.75 +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  72.25 +1.0 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.11 +.70%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .02% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 159.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 157.50 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.10 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 173.0 -9.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +262 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Airlines -1.1% 2) Insurance -.8% 3) Energy -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VIAC, DOX, ADN and HGEN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WBA 2) WSM 3) CLF 4) ARMK 5) KMB
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DOX 2) RMO 3) CYDY 4) CNO 5) DASH
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +3.8% 2) Semis +3.2% 3) Social Media +3.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CONN, CHPT, CLF, CCCC, AYI, NPTN, PCT, DDOG, FMTX, HYFM, MNTK, SQ, SNPR, CHWY, OMP, HOG, AVLR, BSY, BSIG, CURI, ARES, KYMR, AMAT, WBA, HEES, TWOU, OM, PLAN, SWAV, DSSI, ANGO, LUNG, ILMN and KOD
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) BGCP 2) ACM 3) UA 4) FXC 5) ISRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) CLF 2) AYI 3) HOG 4) CHWY 5) WBA

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -24.4% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sector Declining
  • 58.5% of Issues Advancing, 38.1% Declining
  • 154 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
  • 87.7% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,908.0 -81.0 points
  • Vix 19.4 -1.2%
  • Total Put/Call .78 +1.3%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.30 +63.6%

Tuesday, March 30, 2021

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.75 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.71 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,032.0 +32.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.15 +.56%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.09%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AYI)/1.71
  • (CONN)/.24
  • (WBA)/1.12
After the Close:
  • (PLAY)/-1.25
  • (GES)/.56
  • (MU)/.93
Economic Releases
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for March is estimated to rise to 550K versus 117K in Feb.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for March is estimated to rise to 61.0 versus 59.5 in Feb.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for Feb. is estimated to fall -3.0% versus a -2.8% decline in Jan.
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -928,820 barrels versus a +1,912,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +413,820 barrels versus a +204,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +789,090 barrels versus a +3,806,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +1.42% versus a +5.5% gain prior.
Upcoming Splits
  • (SHW) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The German Unemployment Rate, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (KR) investor update could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Higher Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Oil Decline, Tech/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.1 -3.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,968.0 +155.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.68 +.04%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.3 +1.4%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.7 -3.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 144.0 +23.1 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -12.8%
  • NYSE Arms .75 -29.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.37 +.1%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 480.32 -.20%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.54 -.78%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 97.0 +.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.79 +.06%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.66 +2.97%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.75 -.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 13.25 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.75 +1.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  74.5 -1.25 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.72 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  • Yield Curve 160.0 +8.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 161.05 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 28.30 +7.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 182.80 +19.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.0 -2.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -22 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -232 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.5% 2) Utilities -.9% 3) Pharma -.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PCT, FMTX, BFLY, RCUS, DNMR and PCVX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) NLSN 2) ARMK 3) KMX 4) SFM 5) CAR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) GOEV 2) AKUS 3) ASND 4) CNX 5) TROW
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth +1.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy +4.6% 2) Airlines +3.8% 3) Gaming +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SOL, SWAV, SI, LNTH, SEER, REVG, ASO, X, DISCA, CRS, ANGO, RAVN, GVA, QTRX, CELH, RH, USCR, STRL, HGEN, CLF, ICAD, CHPT, RARE, VIAC, DLTH, PLBY, JBLU, KYMR, SIVB, LE, FUN, LC, BECN, PAR, NAVI, TNDM and VITL
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) KTOS 2) SEAC 3) PARR 4) VIAC 5) DISCA
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BNTX 2) VIPS 3) AAL 4) ANGO 5) AMRN

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:
  • Volume Running -18.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 4 Sectors Rising, 7 Sector Declining
  • 54.5% of Issues Advancing, 42.9% Declining
  • 79 New 52-Week Highs, 25 New Lows
  • 87.3% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 50.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 2,929.0 +116.0 points
  • Vix 20.7 -.4%
  • Total Put/Call .74 -14.0%
  • TRIN/Arms .69 -35.5%

Monday, March 29, 2021

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 34.25 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 59.89 -.09%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 2,826.0 +15.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 -.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.32%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ANGO)/-.02
  • (FDS)/2.74
  • (MKC).59
After the Close:
  • (BB)/.03
  • (CHWY)/-.10
  • (LULU)/2.49
  • (PVH)/-.23
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.1% gain in Dec.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +1.2% versus a +1.25% gain in Dec.
10:00 am EST
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to rise to 96.7 versus 91.3 in Feb.
Upcoming Splits
  • (SHW) 3-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Quarles speaking, China Manufacturing PMI report, German Inflation Data report, Eurozone Economic Sentiment, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Automotive Summit and the Scotiabank Telecom/Media/Tech Conference could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.