Monday, March 29, 2021

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on US Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Utility/Telecom Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.5 +8.6%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,833.0 -25.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.64 -.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.2 +.72%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.5 -1.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 117.0 +19.4 points
  • Total Put/Call .87 -2.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.14 -20.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.76 +.68%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 483.54 -.60%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.99 -2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 96.25 -.75 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.73 +.23%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 184.43 +1.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 188.78 +.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 12.5 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 18.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.25 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  75.75 +.75 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 -.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 60.0 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 152.0 +4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 160.30 USD/Metric Tonne +4.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 20.60 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 163.10 +11.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.60 -.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.37 +4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at June 16th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +35 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +71 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my industrial/medical sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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