Friday, May 31, 2024

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
Wall Street Journal:  

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:  

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @DowdEdward
  • @TwinTowerCity
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TheThe1776
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @ImMeme0
  • @simonateba
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,277.5 +.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 38,686.3 -.97%
  • NASDAQ 16,735.0 -.01%
  • Russell 2000 2,070.1 +1.1%
  • NYSE FANG+ 10,322.1 -.89%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 169.5 +4.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 52,354.3 +.14%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,440.3 -.4%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,737.96 +.7%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 824.2 +.33%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.7 -1.2%
  • NYSE Technology 4,795.06 -1.8%
  • Transports 15,238.3 +1.5%
  • Utilities 946.4 +2.4%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 108.46 +.49%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 41.7 -2.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 211.17 +.09%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 110.9 -.16%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 500,216 -.04%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 3.3 -56.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 41 -202
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -28.1 -5.4%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 219,300 +8.0%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,784,152 -.2%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -3.0%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.19 -4.2%
  • ISE Sentiment 130.0 -20.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .85 -26.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.5 +1.5%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 -16.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .98 -2.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +1.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .82 +59.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.5 -9.7%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.84 +.59%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 6.9 +2.2%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,060.3 -3.7%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  92.2 -2.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $3.636 Trillion -40.0%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$7.255 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 39.0 -17.0%
  • AAII % Bears 26.7 +1.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) -9.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 290.16 -.76%
  • Crude Oil 77.08/bbl. -.06%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 242.60 -1.98%
  • Natural Gas 2.59 -3.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
  • Heating Oil 236.6 -2.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 140.3 (1,000/metric ton) +2.0%
  • Gold 2,321.9 -.4%
  • Silver 30.2 +.11%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 490.4 -.43%
  • Copper 460.70 -3.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 381.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.53%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.6 USD/Metric Tonne -4.6%
  • CME Lumber  508.0 -4.6%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,498.4 -1.5%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 295.0 USD/Short Ton -.8%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.7% -80.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.21 +31.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 102.5 +71.7%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(490 of 500 reporting) +7.8% +2.5 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 257.63 +1.83:  Growth Rate +13.0% -1.7 percentage points, P/E 20.2 -.5
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% +15.7 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 329.75 +2.39: Growth Rate +23.0% -13.2 percentage points, P/E 30.9 -.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.6 +3.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.5 +1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.3 -4.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(unch.) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 98.7%(-.4 percentage point) chance of no change, 1.3%(+.4 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 6/12
  • US Dollar Index 104.68 -.38%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,726.0 -.32%
  • Bitcoin/USD 67,294.5 -2.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 186.5 +.26%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -38.5 +2.25 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +4.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.248 Trillion -.21%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.669 Billion +1.5%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $108.249 Billion -.69%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.2 +.7%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 190.89 -.57%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.0 unch.
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.6 -2.8%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 62.5 +2.7%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 142.8 -3.3%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 126.5 +.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 35.2 +1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 -.5%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 101.5 -1.5%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% -5.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.36% -3.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 1.94% -6.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.5 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 +1.0 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 50.2 +1.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 111.0 -1.8
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 266.0 -36.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 58.96 +.67%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 164.4 -1.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 162.87 -.43%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 732.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .57 -2.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +.6% +90.0 basis points
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,279.8B +.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 222,500 +1.1%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 50.3 -1.4%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.35% +2.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 190,300 -5.8%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +6.0% +10.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY n/a
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $129.5M +.36%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.56/gallon -.04/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,801.0 +.28%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $4,226.5/40 ft Box +3.79%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,495.98 +7.69%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 -11.1%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 61.2 -5.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 267,488 +2.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,652,394 +9.2%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value +.7%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Mid-Cap Growth -2.4%
Leading Sectors
  • Alt Energy +4.6%
  • Telecom +4.5%
  • Retail +4.2%
  • Networking +2.0%
  • Oil Service +1.8%
Lagging Sectors
  • Steel -2.3%
  • Computer Services -4.1%
  • Cybersecurity -4.5%
  • Internet -4.9%
  • Software -6.6%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (12)
  • GPS, PENN, AMBA, CZR, USM, AMSC, VFC, ZIM, RARE, JWN, GDEN and COCO
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (21)
  • TRMD, TIMB, GTLB, SNOW, NTNX, IMVT, CLS, COHR, PSTG, AMED, IOT, OWL, VRT, DDOG, PAYC, VEEV, MRVL, S, PHR, DELL and MDB
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CM)/1.24
After the Close: 
  • (GTLB)/-.04
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.2% decline in March. 
  • ISM Manufacturing for May is estimated to rise to 49.7 versus 49.2 in April.
  • ISM Prices Paid for May is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 60.9 in April.

Afternoon:

  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for May is estimated to rise to 15.8M versus 15.74M in April.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The OPEC meeting, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, RBC Energy/Power/Infra Conference, Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, William Blair Growth Stock Conference, (UNH) annual meeting, (JNPR) annual meeting, (BKNG) annual meeting, (ZG) annual meeting and the Baird Consumer/Tech/Services Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -3.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 -3.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 66.3% of Issues Advancing, 31.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.65 +61.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$41.5M
  • 69 New 52-Week Highs, 21 New Lows
  • 58.3% (+2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 44.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.9 -.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.0 -.91%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,335.2 -1.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) -6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.4 -16.3%
  • Vix 14.5 -.07%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -10.0%

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @TuckerCarlson
  • Import the Third World, become the Third World. That’s what we just saw. This won’t stop Trump. He’ll win the election if he’s not killed first. But it does mark the end of the fairest justice system in the world. Anyone who defends this verdict is a danger to you and your family.
  • @Brreaking911
  • @wideawake_media
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @P_McCulloughMD
  • @glennbeck  
  • @VigilantFox 
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • @ClownWorld_
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho 
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • A Massive Fire at an Illinois Farm Kills Millions of Chickens — Notice a pattern yet? • Marina Farms is one of the largest free-range egg facilities in the country. • Some of the structures, 300ft away from each other were mysteriously on fire as well.. • It was not immediately clear what caused the fire. Ooooof course… Are you kidding me? Last night, this, and now Iowa announces they’re killing 4 million chickens because of “Bird Flu”. (video)
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 +2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.16%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.7 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 67.0 +2.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.5 +1.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.30%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.50%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.