Monday, May 20, 2024

Stocks Slightly Higher into Close on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Tech/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(466 of 500 reporting) +5.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 255.91 +.18:  Growth Rate +14.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.88% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +37.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 327.76 +.72: Growth Rate +36.4% +.3%, P/E 31.9 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.17 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .96 +17.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -40.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.6% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.2% -3.8 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.39% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 76.4%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 49.6%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +220 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +52 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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