Friday, August 30, 2019

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:   
  • Stocks Climb on Trade Optimism; U.S. Yields Steady. Stocks in Asia tracked a U.S. rally after China indicated it wouldn’t immediately retaliate against the latest American tariff increase. Treasuries steadied. Shares in Tokyo, Sydney and Seoul advanced on the final trading day of a tumultuous month dominated by the trade war. Earlier, the S&P 500 Index rose for a second day after a spokesman for China’s commerce ministry said that escalating the conflict won’t benefit either side and that it was more important to discuss removing the extra duties. A gauge of the dollar remained near a two-year high. Futures on the S&P 500 Index dipped 0.1% as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge increased 1.3% on Thursday. Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi added 1%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.4%.  
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 -2.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 46.0 -2.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  64.87 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (BIG)/.40
  • (CPB)/.41
  • (JKS)/.33
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.
  • Personal Spending for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in June.
  • The PCE Core MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in June.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for August is estimated to rise to 47.5 versus 44.4 in July.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Diminished China Trade Tensions, Less Global Growth Pessimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.8 -8.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.36 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.10 +.66%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.99 -4.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -7.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 -13.7%
  • NYSE Arms .82 +57.69%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.80 -2.67%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 421.0 -.89%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.25 -3.78%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 175.75 -7.5 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.65 +1.05%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 218.29 +1.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.91 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 13.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +1.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.89 +.07%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.98% unch.
  • Yield Curve -.01 +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 81.30 USD/Metric Tonne +.94%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.6 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -34.10 +7.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -18.1 +1.6 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61+5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +270 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +150 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -2.8% 2) Tobacco -.8% 3) Utilities +.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • OLLI, SY, MFGP, BBY, ANF, OKTA, GLNG, HRB, ELF, WSM, BMA, GGAL, PAM, ENPH, AU, AG and MOV
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SWN 2) DG 3) BBY 4) MNK 5) ANF
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) RLGY 2) ANF 3) MOV 4) ABMD 5) TPR
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Small-Cap Value +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +2.8% 2) Airlines +2.4% 3) Banks +2.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NTNX, USMV, BURL, NOBL, TLYS, MTRX, ESTC, GES, IGV, TECD, DG, IEFA, WRLD, SCVL, TSE, FSLY, MBUU, FIVE, AMSWA, QDEL, PVH, GEF, JBL, HAIN, BYSI, SCVL, MEI, ZUO, RGS and HEES
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) FOXA 2) XRT 3) XHB 4) GME 5) XLI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BURL 2) GES 3) NTNX 4) TECD 5) DG
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:     
  • Asian Stocks Set for Muted Open; Dollar Gains. Asian stocks look set for a muted open Thursday as investors awaited new developments in the U.S. and China trade negotiations. The dollar strengthened to a nine-month high. Futures nudged higher in Tokyo and Hong Kong, and dipped in Sydney. U.S. futures edged lower after the S&P 500 Index climbed on below average volume as a rally in oil pushed energy shares higher. Ten-year Treasury yields held steady after hitting a three-year low. Currencies were little changed in Asia after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the U.S. doesn’t intend to intervene on the dollar for now. The pound weakened and gilts climbed after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson moved to suspend parliament, increasing the risk of a no-deal Brexit. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.2% in Singapore. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index futures fell 0.1%. Hang Seng Index futures added 0.1%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% as of 8:02 a.m. in Tokyo.   
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 48.5 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  64.83 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures -.34%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ANF)/-.52
  • (BBY)/.99
  • (BURL)/1.14
  • (DG)/1.57
  • (DLTR)/.82
  • (MDP)/1.58
  • (PDCO)/.25
  • (SAFM)/3.07
  • (TECD)/2.31
  • (TITN)/.33
  • (TD)/1.80
After the Close:
  • ((COO)/2.70
  • (DELL)/1.49
  • (MRVL)/.15
  • (ULTA)/2.80
  • (WDAY)/.35
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • 2Q GDP is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a prior estimate of a +2.1% gain.
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for July is estimated at -$74.4B versus -$74.2B in June.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a -.3% decline in June.
  • Preliminary Wholesale Inventories MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus unch. in June.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 214K versu s209K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1687K versus 1674K prior.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for July is estimated unch. versus a +2.8% gain in June.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone CPI/Unemployment Rate reports, $32B 7Y T-Note auction, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index and the (CRM) investor meeting could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.