Monday, August 19, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Global Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -8.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.71 +.19%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.73 -.34%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.58 -6.62%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 58.0 -37.0%
  • Total Put/Call .99 -8.33%
  • NYSE Arms .90 +143.20%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.74 -5.3%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 421.0 -1.57%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.60 -5.14%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 208.50 +.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.57 -3.68%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.43 +2.98%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.89 +.15%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 1.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 27.0 +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +3.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.36 -.53%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.90% +3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 6.25 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 86.90 USD/Metric Tonne +.47%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.3 +4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.50 +2.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -21.2 +1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.57 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +82 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -19 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my retail/industrial/biotech/medical/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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