Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Worries, Global Growth Fears, Technical Selling, Healthcare/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.17 +4.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.86 -.39%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.25 -.54%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.56 +6.2%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +10.5%
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -6.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.17 +80.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.54 -.43%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 423.0 -.73%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.49 -6.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.25 -15.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.82 -.19%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 214.72 +.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.79 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -2.25 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 18.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.0 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 64.97 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.96% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve -.04 -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 79.82 USD/Metric Tonne -2.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.7 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -42.0 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -20.5 +1.3 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.55 unch.
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +39 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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