Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:      

• Trump, in Praising Xi, Links Hong Kong Protests to Trade War.

• Here’s How Hard the Protests Are Slamming Hong Kong’s Economy.

• RBA's Debelle Warns World at Risk of ‘Self-Fulfilling Downturn’.

• The World’s Gadget Makers Are Splitting Along U.S.-Chinese Lines.

• Stock Sell-Off Deepens in Asia on Recession Fears. A sell-off in global stocks continued in Asia after U.S. equities tumbled as a closely watched part of the Treasury yield curve inverted Wednesday, raising recession fears. Treasuries steadied. Japan’s Topix index opened about 2% lower, less than the nearly 3% tumble seen in the S&P 500 Index Wednesday. Treasuries stabilized after the 10-year rate slid below the two-year for the first time since 2007. Bonds also climbed in Australia and New Zealand, following gains across Europe, with the U.K. yield curve inverting for the first time since the financial crisis and Bund yields sliding to a fresh record low. Crude oil extended losses. Japan’s Topix index fell 1.9% as of 9:16 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the S&P 500 Index added 0.2%. The underlying gauge fell 2.9% Wednesday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.8%.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• RBA Warns on World, Hong Kong Fallout, Ban ‘Down Under’: Eco Day

• Yield Curve Drama No Reason to Lose Your Mind, Stock Pickers Say.

• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Makes Bigger Amazon Bet, Boosting Stake 11%.  

• States Sue Trump Over Plan to Deny Status to Poorer Immigrants.

Wall Street Journal:

• Are You Ready for Facial Recognition at the Airport?

• The Navarro Recession, II.

• WeWork IPO Filing Shows Revenue Growth, Wide Losses.

• Warning Signs Point to a Global Slowdown.

• Italy’s Rival Parties Look to Block Salvini’s Bid for Power.

Fox News:

• At least 6 Philadelphia officers reportedly wounded as bullets fly in active scene.

MarketWatch.com:  

• Canopy Growth(CGC), world’s largest pot company, lost $1 billion in three months.

• Check out the only S&P 500 companies trading higher in Wednesday’s ugly selloff. 

• The $4 billion time bomb ticking away inside the biggest marijuana companies.

CNBC:

• Dow tanks 800 points in worst day of 2019 after bond market sends recession warning.

• ‘CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!’ — Trump rips ‘clueless Jay Powell’ and the Fed as the market slides

• Cisco(CSCO) drops on poor guidance, says China business dropped 25%.

• Trump suggests ‘personal meeting’ with China’s Xi over Hong Kong crisis.

• Pivotal surges 60% after VMware says it’s in talks to acquire the company.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cisco, NetApp and Vipshop.

• Global firms are sounding the alarm as escalating Hong Kong protests deal a ‘serious blow’ to the city’s outlook.

Zero Hedge:    

• Huawei Bombshell: Extensive Cyber Spying On Beijing's Political Opponents In Africa Revealed.

• China Curbs Private Gold Imports As It Adds 10 More Tons To Its Own Hoard.

• Amazon Facial Recognition Can Now Detect Fear.

• Trump Bashes "Clueless" Jay Powell And "CRAZY" Inverted Yield Curve

• Rickards: China Is A Paper Tiger.

• One Trader Stands To Make $3.5 Billion If Powell Launches QE In The Next 2 Months.

• 5 Things Every Trader Needs To Know About Rates.

• "He's Doing The Right Thing": Iowa Farmers Back Trump, Brush Off Trade War.

• Markets In Turmoil: "Clubbed Like A Baby Seal!".

Business Insider:

• Hong Kong will become another Tiananmen Square if China's army comes, a protest leader warns.

NY Daily News:

• NYPD officer shoots self in head in Queens home, ninth suicide of city cop this year.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.0 +1.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 55.25 +5.0 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  65.55 +.02%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.04%.

• S&P 500 futures +.25%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.18%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (BABA)/10.46

• (BGG)/.45

• (CSIQ)/.35

• (JCP)/-.31

• (TPR)/.61

• (WMT)/1.22

After the Close:

• (CRMT)/1.74

• (AMAT)/.70

• (DDS)/-.72

• (NVDA)/1.15

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Empire Manufacturing for August is estimated fall to 2.0 versus 4.3 in July.

• Preliminary 2Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to rise +1.4% versus a +3.4% gain in 1Q.

• Preliminary 2Q Unit Labor Costs is estimated to rise +2.0% versus a -1.6% decline in 1Q.

• Philly Fed Business Outlook for August is estimated to fall to 9.5 versus 21.8 in July.

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for July is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.

• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for July is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in June. 

• Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas for July is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in June. 

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 212K versus 209K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1685K versus 1684K prior.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in June.

• Manufacturing Production for July is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.4% gain in June.

• Capacity Utilization for July is estimated to fall to 77.8% versus 77.9% in June.
  

10:00 am EST

• The NAHB Housing Market Index for August is estimated at 65 versus 65 in July.

• Business Inventories for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.3% gain in May.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Total Net TIC Flows for June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Industrial Production report, Australia Employment Change report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (EAT) analyst meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.