Monday, August 12, 2019

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on China/Hong Kong Tensions, Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Agriculture/Financial Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.1 +11.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 122.61 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.65 +3.22%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 46.57 +11.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 78.0 -11.4%
  • Total Put/Call 1.20 +20.0%
  • NYSE Arms 2.23 +21.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.45 +4.3%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 398.0 +1.5%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 74.45 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 229.5 -8.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.94 +3.53%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 200.69 +12.8%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 164.81 +.06%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread -.75 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 19.5 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.0 -.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.97% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 6.5 -3.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 87.18 USD/Metric Tonne -1.08%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.8 +4.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.80 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -15.7 +4.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 -5.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Oct. 30th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at Dec. 11th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -414 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -248 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -69 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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