Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China Rejects One Demand That Could Help Ease Hong Kong Protests

• Global Bond Market Sounds Shrillest Alarm Yet Over the Economy.

• Stocks Mixed, Treasuries Gain Amid Ongoing Caution. Asian stocks traded mixed and Treasuries edged higher Thursday as investors assessed the implications of the latest central bank moves to bolster growth. Shares were little changed in Tokyo and fell in Sydney. South Korean stocks advanced amid signsof easing tensions with Japan. U.S. futures slipped back after the S&P 500 Index recovered from a decline of as much as 2% to eke out a modest gain Wednesday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped in Asia after closing higher in New York. Oil rebounded on a report top producers were looking at ways to stem the recent slide in prices. The yen ticked higher. Japan’s Topix index dipped 0.1% as of 9:09 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.6%. Hang Seng Index futures were little changed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%.  

• Rock-Star Economies Flop, World Recession Fears Rise: Eco Day.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Hedge Funds Turn Most Bearish Since 2016, Hone Long Stock Bets

• Ferocious Market Moves Undo Fed Easing, Putting Powell on the Back Foot

• Pimco Is Ready to Think About Negative Yields Reaching the U.S. 

• Medicare Expands Its Coverage of Costly Cancer Breakthrough.  

• AMD(AMD) Says New Server Chip Is Faster Than Intel’s Pricier Offering.  

• Salesforce(CRM) to Acquire ClickSoftware for $1.35 Billion.

Wall Street Journal:

• Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back.

• Bond Yields Fall, Sparking Big Swings in Stock Market.

• Words That Heal and Words That Don’t.

• The Deep Dangers of Life Online.

• FedEx(FDX) to End Ground Deliveries for Amazon(AMZN).

• China Warns Hong Kong It Will Intervene if Situation Deteriorates.

Fox News:

• Trump, White House rip ‘fraud’ Sherrod Brown, Dayton mayor after visit with mass shooting victims.

• ICE raids net 680 ‘removable aliens’ at Mississippi chicken plants.

MarketWatch.com:

• Roku(ROKU) stock jumps 8% after earnings, outlook beat.

• Symantec stock spikes after report that Broadcom talks resumed and are focused on enterprise unit.

CNBC:

• US-China trade war is hurting farmers, but they’re sticking with Trump.

• Cramer: Action in the bond market does not mean a recession is ‘around the corner’.

• Disney(DIS) might not steal Netflix(NFLX) customers — but it will make it harder for Netflix to raise prices.

• Banks pummeled as rates dive, but analysts say these stocks are already ‘priced for a recession’.

Zero Hedge:

• Heavy Clashes Erupt Between Indian, Pakistani Forces In Kashmir.

• Illinois Finances: Far From "Stable".

• Corzine's Hedge Fund Granted SEC Registration, Warned To Stay Away From Illiquid Securities.

• Consumer Credit Rises To Record $4.1 Trillion As Student, Auto Loans Hit All Time High.

• "We Only Needed A Trigger" - Iron Ore Plunges Into Bear Market, Weak Demand Outlook.

• The Market Is Now Pricing In Odds Of An Emergency 25bps Rate Cut Tomorrow.

• Puerto Rico's Supreme Court Invalidates Swearing In Of New Governor.

• Globalists Have Set Operation "Blame-The-Populists" In Motion.

• Gold & Silver Soar As "Minsky Moment" Fears Spark Market Turmoil.

Business Insider:

• Instagram's lax privacy practices let a trusted partner track millions of users' physical locations, secretly save their stories, and flout its rules.

• A Trump executive order aimed at addressing allegations of anti-conservative bias on social media services like Twitter and Facebook is reportedly in the works.

Telegraph:

• German factory slump stokes recession fears as New Zealand's central bank cut rates.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 52.25 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index  66.11 +.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.39%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (GOOS)/-.24

• (CAH)/.95

• (KHC)/.61

• (MUR)/.17

• (PRTY)/.36

• (SUP)/-.12

• (VIAB)/1.05

After the Close:

• (ATVI)/.26

• (CBS)/1.13

• (ELY)/.26

• (MTW)/.49

• (NWSA)/.03

• (SYMC)/.33

• (TTD)/.68

• (UBER)/-2.70

• (YELP)/.40

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 215K versus 215K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1690K versus 1699K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan GDP report, China Trade Balance report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, $19B 30Y T-Bond auction, Bloomberg Aug. US Economic Survey, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Confidence report, (CATO)/(BKE) monthly sales updates and the (NUVA) investor day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.