Sunday, January 31, 2021

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg: 
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
CNBC: 
Zero Hedge: 
NewsMax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 63.5 +2.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 32.50 +.75 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.15 +.11%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,178.0 +34.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 32.55 +.40%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.
  • S&P 500 futures -56%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.71%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (ON)/.28
  • (TMO)/3.88
  • (OTIS)/.59
After the Close:
  • (CRUS)/1.86
  • (FN)/1.04
  • (KMT)/.09
  • (NXPI)/2.11
  • (VRTX)/2.58
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.9% gain in Nov.
  • ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to fall to 60.0 versus 60.7 in Dec.
  • ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to fall to 76.0 versus 77.6 in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone PMI report and the RBA rate decision could also impact trading today.
Market Hours
Normal:
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by metals & mining and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, January 30, 2021

Today's Headlines

 Bloomberg:  

Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
  • Had bullish commentary on (MRNA), (FCX), (XOM), (CVX), (CF), (VRM), (SAM), (INTU), (DE), (AMAT) and (PHM).
  • Had bearish commentary on (QS).
MarketWatch.com:                     
Fox News:
Newsmax:  
Zero Hedge: 
TheGatewayPundit.com:

Friday, January 29, 2021

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:  
Wall Street Journal:
CNBC:
IG:
MarketWatch.com:                  
Fox News:
Newsmax:   
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 3,733.82 -3.5%*


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. 

Indices
  • DJIA 30,155.0 -3.4%
  • NASDAQ 13,135.0 -3.90%
  • Russell 2000 2,072.94 -4.2%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 56.53 -6.54%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 337.48 +14.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 39,279.33 -3.7%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 2,409.90 -3.6%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,337.61 -3.57%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 664.24 -1.41%
  • MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,373.57 -.68%
  • NYSE Technology 3,785.0 -4.93%
  • Transports 12,174.0 -5.93%
  • Utilities 858.75 -.84%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 57.97 -4.47%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 53.54 -4.51%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,321.47 -2.3%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 920.54 -.36%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 447,460 -.51%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 381 -1,018
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -44.66 +1.8%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 508,854 -3.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,217,037 -.79%
  • Total Put/Call .90 +38.7%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.78 +7.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 110.0 -6.0 points
  • NYSE Arms .74 -51.5
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,098.0 -1,089.0 points
  • Volatility(VIX) 33.5 +63.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 54.4 +9.8%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.63 -.45%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.3 +.1%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 13,260.38 -2.98%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $4.327 Trillion +.45%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -5.922 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 37.7 -11.3%
  • AAII % Bears 38.3 +11.0%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 174.20 +.98%
  • Crude Oil 52.13 +.5%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 157.25 +3.0%
  • Natural Gas 2.57 +6.70%
  • Heating Oil 160.04 +2.30%
  • Gold 1,849.10 -.4%
  • Silver 27.0 +5.0%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 213.9 +.11
  • Copper 354.70 -1.99%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 453.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.66%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 156.45 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%
  • Lumber 877.0 +10.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,089.70 +2.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +5.2% -2.3 percentage points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +19.0% +1.3 percentage points
  • Bloomberg US Recession Probability Next 12 Months 20.0% unch.
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index -2.3 -14.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 131.60 -10.6%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 172.93 +1.74%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.3 -14.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 128.20 -13.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 65.40 +5.1 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 100.0% chance of no change, 0.0% chance of rate hike on 1/27
  • US Dollar Index 90.57 +.42%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,713.62 -.25%
  • Bitcoin/USD 34,879 +5.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.51 +.61%
  • Yield Curve 93.0 -5.75 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.08% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.364 Trillion -.14%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 12.07 -8.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 288.0 +.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 116.0 -10.0 basis points
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.0 +4.98%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 172.95 -.24%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.22 -2.16%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.55 +1.88%
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 95.96 -1.45%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.50 +.01%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11% +3.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 15.75 +1.0 basis point
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.75 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.22 +10.5%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 434.0 +3.47%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.20 +3.88%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 173.72 +1.71%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 69.0 unch.
  • Markit CMBX BBB-6 73.70 -.07%
  • M1 Money Supply $6.742 Trillion -.87%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,068.10 +.90%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 868,000 +1.91%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.4% -20.0 basis points
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 2.73% -4.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 907,600 -4.1%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.7 +2.0 points
  • Weekly Retail Sales +2.7% +50.0 basis points
  • Nationwide Gas $2.42/gallon +.02/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,470 -18.8%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,040.18 +3.74%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 20.0 +14.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 105.93 -4.7%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 298,051 +.69%
Best Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.2%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -5.1%
Leading Sectors
  • Retail +17.9%
  • Networking +.6%
  • Gold & Silver -.5%
  • Computer Hardware -.5%
  • Education -.7%
Lagging Sectors
  • Energy -6.9%
  • Gaming -7.5%
  • Alt Energy -8.2%
  • Shipping -9.4%
  • Steel -10.1%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (19)
  • KOSS, AMC, NVAX, VXRT, AVIR, CVM, PSAC, FIZZ, INO, MSTR, MKTR, VIR, SI, TWNK, XONE, FUBO, MRNA, GATX and CVLB
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (27)
  • LHX, X, FB, DAN, WHR, MAR, SCHW, HRC, ATSG, HLI, IBKR, WPF, LRCX, TER, SYF, AXNX, PSXP, PRCH, RMD, FHI, SLQT, GOCO, BZH, CALX, EHTH and IRTC
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change