Tuesday, January 05, 2021

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Vaccine Hopes, Stimulus Optimism, Oil Surge, Commodity/Retail Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 25.9 -4.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,312.0 +159.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.72 -.07%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.9 +1.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 50.2 +2.0%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 155.0 +54.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .60 -33.3%
  • NYSE Arms .74 -20.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.54 -.94%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 555.30 -.81%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.83 -.34%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 114.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 57.34 +2.47%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 153.34 +1.02%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.57 +.07%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 16.25 -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .5 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  70.75 -.25 basis point
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.25 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 63.01 +.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 80.5 -1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 162.38 USD/Metric Tonne +1.64%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 58.80 +11.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 179.50 +3.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 72.10 +.3 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +3.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating unch. open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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