Wednesday, January 13, 2021

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Stimulus Hopes, Short-Covering, Utility/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.2 -4.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,042.0 +2.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.69 -.27%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.5 -.7%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.0 +1.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +25.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 +32.4%
  • NYSE Arms 1.46 +117.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.22 -2.29%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 506.90 -.18%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.58 -3.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.26 +1.17%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 162.31 -1.71%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 185.47 +.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.5 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 14.25 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.50 +2.5 basis points
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.75 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.58 +.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 98.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 164.75 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.10 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 165.30 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.5 +.5 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 -2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +43 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +4 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/consumer staple sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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