Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Stimulus Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Commodity/Alt Energy Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.6 -7.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 2,050.0 +139.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.40 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.2 -1.6%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.7 -1.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -8.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .67 -18.3%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -16.2%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.18 -3.55%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 494.0 -.31%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.50 -2.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 62.53 -1.21%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.08 -1.68%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 184.97 -.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 7.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 14.75 -.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  71.75 unch.
  • IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 73.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 62.43 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.
  • Yield Curve 97.25 +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 166.70 USD/Metric Tonne -.20%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.40 -4.9 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 148.60 -11.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 63.3 -.6 piont
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.11 +2.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at April 28th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +66 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +5 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +15 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/energy/industrial/medical/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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