Sunday, June 30, 2019

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
  • U.S. Stock Futures Rise With Yuan on Trade Truce. U.S. equity-index futures surged with the yuan, while the yen slumped after the American and Chinese presidents reached a truce in the trade war and agreed to resume talks. Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 1% and China’s offshore yuan was up 0.6% against the dollar in early trading Monday. The deal between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump validated investor hopes after mixed signals heading into Saturday’s meeting. Treasury futures declined. Oil rose as Russia struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to extend the OPEC+ agreement at current production levels for the rest of this year and potentially into early 2020. Futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed 1% as of 7:30 a.m. in Tokyo. The underlying gauge advanced 0.6% on Friday. Futures on the Nikkei 225 were up 1.6%.
MarketWatch.com:
Zero Hedge:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.5% to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.0 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.63 +.01%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.4%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.87%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.36%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • (AZZ)/.67
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 51.0 versus a reading of 52.1 in May.
  • ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 52.8 versus 53.2 in May.
  • Construction Spending for May is estimated unch. versus unch. in April.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The OPEC meeting, Eurozone PMI report, Eurozone Unemployment Rate report and the China Manufacturing PMI report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as global growth fears, oil weakness and European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst offset short-covering, diminished China trade deal worries and technical buying. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0.% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.0 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.5 +3.5 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.36 .
  • S&P 500 futures -.28%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.49%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (ATU)/.40
  • (BB)/.00
  • (GIS)/.76
  • (INFO)/.65
  • (PAYX)/.64
  • (SCHN)/.61
After the Close:
  • (FUL)/.89
  • (MLHR)/.78
  • (KBH)/.38
  • (FIZZ)/.62
  • (WOR)/.77
Economic Releases
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in March.
10:00 am EST
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for June is estimated to fall to 2.0 versus a reading of 5.0 in May. 
  • New Home Sales for May is estimated to rise to 684K versus 673K in April.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for June is estimated to fall to 131.0 versus 134.1 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, Japan Trade Data report, $41B 5Y T-Note auction and the Democrat Presidential Debate could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Monday, June 24, 2019

Monday Watch

Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.75 +1.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.42 -.02%.
  • FTSE 100 futures +.06%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.32%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.45%.

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for May is estimated to rise to .1 versus -.45 in April.
10:30 am EST
  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for June is estimated at 0.0 versus -5.3 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Eurozone Germany IFO Data report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, June 23, 2019

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg: 
  • Had bullish commentary on (PLNT), (MAR) and (GLD).
Zero Hedge: