Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Dovish FOMC Commentary, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Metal&Mining/Medical Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.1 -1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.14 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.43 +.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.75 -3.67%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 63.0 -42.7%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -5.43%
  • NYSE Arms .99 +33.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.14 -3.69%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 634.0 +.27%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 67.70 -3.38%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -10.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.72 -3.25%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 178.59 -2.89%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.71 -.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.25 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -11.5 +3.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.87 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.17% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 26.75 +7.75 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.65 USD/Metric Tonne +.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -60.30 +.9 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.4 +5.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.50 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.68 +4.0 basis points
  • 100.0% chance of Fed rate cut at Sept. 18th meeting, 100.0% chance of cut at October 30th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -23 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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