Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:    

• Trump Says ‘Not Nearly Enough’ Progress in Talks With Mexico.

• Mexico Peso Tanks on Double Whammy From Ratings, Trade Talks.

• ECB Watched as Central Banks Shift Gears: Decision Day Guide.

• Biden Breaks With Rivals by Opposing Federal Funds for Abortions.

• The Trade War Could Pop Hong Kong's Property Bubble.    

• Stocks Mixed as Mexico Tensions Sap Risk Appetite. Stocks opened mixed in Asia and U.S. futures slipped as discussions between the Trump administration and Mexican officials on tariffs ended Wednesday without agreement, putting a dampener on the week’s rally in risk assets. Japanese shares dipped, while Australian shares opened flat and S&P 500 contracts retreated. U.S. shares had closed higher as President Donald Trump said Mexico wanted to make a deal, before later reports showed that no accommodation had been reached. Trump said talks will resume tomorrow. The peso sank. Treasuries steadied after mixed economic data, while the yen edged up. Oil dipped. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.3% as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.1%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% Wednesday.

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Fed Beige Book, Hong Kong Housing Hit, Third RBI Cut: Eco Day.

• U.S. Stocks Still Look Better Than Anywhere Else.

Wall Street Journal:

• Fiat Pulls Renault Merger Offer After Nissan Balks at Deal.

• Inside the Effort to Fix the Boeing 737 MAX.

• Border Arrests Climb Amid Threat of Tariffs on Mexico.

• Democrats and the Border Children.

• More Universities Shut Down Traditional M.B.A. Programs.

Fox News:

• Ilhan Omar has bizarre response to 2020 Dem's request to debate AOC.

• Gutfeld on Elizabeth Warren's apocalyptic climate change rhetoric.

MarketWatch.com:

• Cloudera stock drops more than 25% on exiting CEO, revenue weakness.

• Not so fast — interest-rate cuts are not a done deal, experts at Fed conference say.

• Oil just fell into a bear market — here’s why.

• High-yield canary soothes fears around bond-market recession signal.

CNBC: 

• This statistic is a key reason why Walmart, Target and Costco are thriving.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Cloudera, Stitch Fix, Five Below and more.

• Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google are flashing a warning signal for the entire stock market.

Zero Hedge:

• CNN Panel Slams 'Arrogant, Lazy Biden' Over Latest Example Of Plagiarism.

• Illinois Turns To Gambling And Weed Amid Hopeless Financial Picture.

• US-Mexico End Tariff Meeting Without Breakthough; Peso, US Futures Plunge.

• The Hidden Problem Looming Over The Cannabis Edibles Market.

• Huawei Slashing "As Much As 30%" Of Orders To Key Suppliers Amidst US Product Ban.

• Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel To Join Centerview Partners.

• Crude Crashes, Gold Gains As Defensives Dominate Stocks.

Telegraph:

• Italian markets wobble as EU takes first step towards fining Rome ahead of budget battle.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.25 unch.

• China Sovereign CDS 56.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.46 unch.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.

Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (HOME)/.04

• (CIEN)/.41

• (SJM)/1.94

• (MIK)/.31

• (SIG)/-.24

After the Close:

• (BYND)/-.15

• (GES)/-.26

• (OLLI)/.44

• (ZUMZ)/-.09

Economic Releases
7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts for May.

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 215K versus 215K the prior week. 

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1660K versus 1657K prior.

• The Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$50.7B versus -$50.0B in March.
  

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 1Q.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The ECB Rate Decision/Press Conference, Eurozone GDP report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, week Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, (BKE)/(FAST)/(CATO) Monthly Sales Updates, Gabelli Entertainment/Broadcasting Conference, Piper Jaffray Consumer Conference and the RBC Mining/Materials Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.