Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:        
  • Asia Stocks to Gain on Trade, Stimulus Optimism. Asian stocks looked set to follow gains in global shares on optimism over progress in the U.S.-China trade war and indications of more stimulus from the European Central Bank. Treasuries climbed and oil surged. Futures pointed higher in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The S&P 500 Index rose 1% after President Donald Trump tweeted he will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G-20 summit next week, though gains were tempered by news his administration explored demoting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in February. Ten-year Treasury yields came close to touching 2% before recovering. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 1.3% in Singapore. Hang Seng futures earlier added 1.7%. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.6%. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.0 -.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 47.25 -3.0 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.67 +.05%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.09%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.17%.
Morning Preview Links 

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (BKS)/-.24
  • (WGO)/1.03
After the Close:
  • (AOBC)/.16
  • (ORCL)/1.07
  • (SCS)/.18
Economic Releases
10:30 am EST
  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,444,440 barrels versus a +2,206,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +231,250 barrels versus a +764,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +156,250 barrels versus a -1,000,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.3% versus a +1.4% gain prior.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds rate at 2.25-2.5%.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The FOMC Press Conference, UK inflation data report, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, JMP Securities Life Sciences Conference and the (HQY) investor day could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly mixed. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

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