Tuesday, June 18, 2019

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Dovish ECB Commentary, Oil Gain, Commodity/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Advancing
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.1 -1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.1 -.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.1 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 -19.9%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -12.1%
  • NYSE Arms .68 -34.0%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.92 -4.76%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 632.0 -.39%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.07 -8.32%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 243.5 -10.75 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.82 -1.63%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 183.58 -4.67%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.76 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.50 unch.
  • TED Spread 22.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 +1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.61 +.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.20% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 19.25 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.16 USD/Metric Tonne +7.57%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -61.20 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -21.1 -6.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -31.40 -1.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.64 +3.0 basis points
  • 83.0% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 94.9% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +127 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +190 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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