Monday, June 17, 2019

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Buyout Speculation, Less Eurozone Debt Angst, Biotech/Oil Service Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Advancing
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.46 +1.18%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 126.55 +.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.37 -.71%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.57 +2.23%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +34.1%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -2.11%
  • NYSE Arms .87 -17.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.66 -.91%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 633.0 +.86%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 76.42 -2.92%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 254.25 -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.31 +.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.67 -.46%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 163.68 +.04%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.50 +.5 basis piont
  • TED Spread 24.75 -2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.33 -.02%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.18% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 22.25 -2.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.76 USD/Metric Tonne -1.06%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -63.20 -7.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -14.7 +4.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -29.50 -2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.61 -3.0 basis points
  • 83.3% chance of Fed rate cut at July 31st meeting, 95.7% chance of cut at Sept. 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

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