Saturday, September 07, 2024

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @StephenM
  • @glennbeck
  • @BillAckman
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @stillgray
  • @kylenabecker
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @RepThomasMassie
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @captivedreamer7
  • @DowdEdward
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @Geiger_Capital
  • @BelannF
  • @MaxEvansUMP
  • @MichelleRM68
  • Remember when Democrats threw out ALL of the Republican poll watchers in Philly?? Pam Bondi & Corey Lewandowski had to file an emergency motion in federal court? Nothing was done & no one was arrested! Yeah, that happened & they'll do it AGAIN! (video)
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @CollinRugg
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @TrumpWarRoom
  • @DC_Draino 
  • @DogRightGirl
  • @JDunlap1974
  • @TimRunsHisMouth
  • @TonySeruga
  • Using GPS the same dirtbag retired FBI Special Agent we’ve linked to other shooters was within 1,000 feet of this shooter’s mobile devices 11 times in 14 months. That is not a coincidence.
  • @IGSquawk 

Friday, September 06, 2024

Stocks Finish Sharply Lower on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Yen Strength, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 22.8 +14.3%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.61 +16.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 47.7 -4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.2 -1.0%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.6 +18.9% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 126.0 -9.0 points
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 +36.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.21 -6.9%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$266.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.3 +3.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 329.04 +4.2%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 262 +13
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.2 +2.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.8 +.34%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 145.0 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.7 +.34%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.2 +1.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 134.5 -.43%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.76 -.28%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -27.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.5 -.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 129.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 705.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.8 -.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.05% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 90.25 USD/Metric Tonne -1.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.48 euros/megawatt-hour +.78%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.1 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.6 +7.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.8 -.8
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +11.6% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.18 +.11:  Growth Rate +13.9% unch., P/E 20.3 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.65% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 347.88 +.97: Growth Rate +22.2% -.5 percentage point, P/E 30.1 -1.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .52 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .61 -9.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 5.5 basis point (2s/10s) +7.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 73.1% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.03 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 52.4%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 40.6%(+6.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,081 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -75 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +2 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -2.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Semis -4.8% 2) Social Media -3.3% 3) Alt Energy -3.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • VRNS, OXY, PUK, SBLK, ALLY, GATO, BCS, AMR, IEP, ALRM, ASAN, ASML, VSTS, THC, BYRN, PATH, TW, ABM, INDV, VTLE, KBR, MBLY, ERJ, BPMC, TASK, ELF, LEGN, SWBI, CRDO, AVGO, CLS and BRZE
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AG 2) AVTR 3) AR 4) BAX 5) CTRA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) PL 2) GCO 3) BRZE 4) MBLY 5) AVGO
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) IYW 3) XLK 4) SMH 5) XLE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +1.4% 2) Restaurants +.7% 3) Telecom +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RYDE, NX, IOT, TVTX, GWRE, TARS, NARI, BOWL, SMAR, ZUMZ, VRDN, X, GIII, TCBI, SRCL and DOCU
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) VNET 2) SATS 3) DOCU 4) DISH 5) PPL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) GWRE 2) IOT 3) TVTX 4) AGX 5) NX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLV 2) XLY 3) IAI 4) XLU 5) ITB
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • (ORCL)/1.33
  • (RBRK)/-.49
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for July.

3:00 pm EST

  • Consumer Credit For July is estimated to rise to $12.0B versus $8.934B in June.

Upcoming Splits

  • (CTAS) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow 3Q update, NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations Index for Aug., CB Employment Trends Index for Aug., (DECK) annual meeting, Goldman Communicopia/Tech Conference, Baird Healthcare Conference, Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, Precious Metals Summit and the Roth Solar/Storage Symposium could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +4.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.6 +.5
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 24.3% of Issues Advancing, 73.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.13 -13.9%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$194.5M
  • 115 New 52-Week Highs, 68 New Lows
  • 53.3% (-4.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 47.1 -5.6%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 219.2 -1.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,946.3 -1.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 39.0 (FEAR) -8.0
  • 1-Day Vix 18.3 -15.9%
  • Vix 23.6 +18.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.15 +36.9%

Thursday, September 05, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 59.5 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.2 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.0 +2.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.43%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Transport/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 20.0 -6.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.38 +88.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 50.3 +1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 175.6 -.08%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 unch.
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.5 -5.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 140.0 +22.0
  • Total Put/Call .65 -33.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.05 -18.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$66.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.51 -.98%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 316.43 -.07%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 249 -9
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.3 +.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 166.3 -.83%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.0 basis points -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 -1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 166.0 -.51%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 135.1 +.17%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.82 +.11%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -20.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -25.75 basis points -5.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -.75 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 133.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 699.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 67.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.06% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.5 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -36.4 +5.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.0 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(497 of 500 reporting) +11.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.07 +.11:  Growth Rate +13.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.6 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +36.3% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 346.91 +.24: Growth Rate +22.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.2 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .46 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -2.25 basis point (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.09% +5.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 72.3% +.4 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th FOMC meeting: 48.8%(-.6 percentage point) chance of 4.5%-4.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th meeting: 40.5%(+1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +333 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Road & Rail -1.9% 2) Pharma -1.7% 3) Industrials -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • AZN, GPC, ULS, REVG, ASPN, ZIM, CLF, CI, AAP, IRTC, SAIA, EW, CLW, COR, AAOI, AVAV, CVI, ODFL, EMBC, CHWY, HPE, WLY, VRNS, STNE, SG, TMDX, CPRT, IEP, CHCT, ZBH, VRNT, FYBR, XPO, MCK, TTC, AI, BASE, CRDO, ASTS and NSS
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) APA 2) GXO 3) ASHR 4) MBLY 5) AI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) AI 2) NSSC 3) HPE 4) CVS 5) SMCI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLY 2) SMH 3) FHLC 4) FIDU 5) FENY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth unch.
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +2.9% 2) Gold & Silver +1.4% 3) Electric Vehicles +1.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GIII, SATS, VSTS, KLG, SCVL, PRMW, ZETA, SHC, CASY, ALK, OLMA, EXAS, DLTR, ZK, KREF, IMVT, X, SMAR, TNGX, ARGX, TSLA, GATO, AMRK, DB, SILA, SAIC, AAL, ATHM, GTLB, ZS, BBIO, UAL and CATX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) APLD 2) APA 3) ALK 4) FYBR 5) VSTS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MODD 2) YEXT 3) CASY 4) SCVL 5) NIO
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLP 2) XLU 3) XLV 4) XOP 5) XLF
Charts: