Friday, July 26, 2024

Stocks Finish Higher on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Telecom/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -9.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.48 -5.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.2 +2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.6 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.5 -2.5%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.7 -13.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 +21.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +3.1%
  • NYSE Arms .97 -9.4%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$286.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.1 -2.3%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 269.9 +.05%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 235 -9
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.1 -2.7%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 163.7 -.98%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.3 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 166.4 -2.2%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 -.2%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.1 +.04%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.5 basis points +.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -4.75 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 143.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 687.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.29% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.61%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.5 euros/megawatt-hour +2.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -34.0 -.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.9 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.3 -.9 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(206 of 500 reporting) +6.5% +.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.38 +.04:  Growth Rate +14.9% unch., P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +19.8% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.29 +.28: Growth Rate +25.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.6 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .72 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .55 -14.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -20.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.0 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.83% +22.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.6% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% +34.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 87.7%(-1.9 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 59.8%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +633 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +156 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Medical Equipment -.7% 2) Shipping -.4% 3) I-Banking +.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CRI, GNTX, XPRO, LHX, LPLA, OLN, SKYW, MXL, APPF, BAH, BJRI and SAIA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) DXCM 2) MMM 3) GILD 4) XLB 5) TELL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DXCM 2) BIIB 3) TWOU 4) STLA 5) SICP
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) RSPT 2) XLC 3) XLI 4) XLY 5) XLP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +1.8%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +3.4% 2) Semis +2.8% 3) Construction +2.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • COUR, EVRI, AEYE, SERV, MMM, MHK, LBRDK, CHTR, ASTS, AVTR, INOD, NNE, NSC, RILY, CNC, MSTR, COLB, BMY, FBIN, VSAT, W, FTAI, DECK, GEV, CUZ, CASY, VLTO, SAM, CLSK, BANC, ALEX, WS, HIG, MARA, SSNC, SWK, NOV, PII, SAVA, SIGA, LII, RGEN, TOL, DOC, FIX, EXP, LW, BLD, ATR, BKR, MANH, TYL, NCNO, FSS, MOH, ALSN, CRS, CROX, MHO, CMCSA, EME, HHH, TXRH, BWIN, EW, VKTX, WT, BWIN, PODD, CL, CHDN, POOL, NVRI, MTH, LKQ, HIW and CINF
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) DXCM 2) PPL 3) IGT 4) MMM 5) NWL
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NWL 2) MMM 3) MHK 4) COUR 5) DECK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) FTEC 2) SMH 3) XLU 4) XLE 5) FDIS
Charts:

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMG)/4.60
  • (IART)/.62
  • (MCD)/3.07
  • (ON)/.92
After the Close: 
  • (CHK)/unch.
  • (CR)/1.24
  • (EQR)/.96
  • (FFIV)/2.97
  • (FLS)/.63
  • (LSCC)/.24
  • (RMBS)/.44
  • (SANM)/1.28
  • (SBAC)/3.27
  • (SFM)/.78
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for July is estimated to rise to -14.2 versus -15.1 in June.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Dallas Fed PCE for June could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -2.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.3 +1.5
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 70.2% of Issues Advancing, 26.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.29 +20.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$292.3M
  • 158 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
  • 66.4% (+3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 51.3 +.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.7 +.2%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,444.9 -.34%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 14.0 -25.7%
  • Vix 17.0 -7.9%
  • Total Put/Call .94 -4.1%

Thursday, July 25, 2024

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @HawleyMO 
  • @thevivafrei
  • Remember everyone, Kamala Harris was never the “border czar”. Believe the lie. Repeat the lie. Because you’re Democrats. That’s what Democrats do. (pic)
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @HealthRanger
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @JoeyMannarinoUS
  • @realLizUSA
  • @ImMeme0 
  • @naomirwolf 
  • @TaraBull808
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @EndWokeness
  • @amuse
  • @WarClandestine
  • @UngaTheGreat
  • STUDY: 93% of Top US University Presidents Donate to Democrats. A College Fix analysis shows about 93% of top U.S. university presidents donate to Democratic campaigns. The study examined federal and state political campaign donation data for 15 out of 25 top-ranked university presidents. It found that 14 gave to Democrats, with 12 donating exclusively to Democratic campaigns and two giving primarily to Democrats, with smaller amounts to Republicans.
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 68.0 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne +3.2%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.07%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 54.0 +5.4%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.7 -2.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.1%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.38%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.44%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Positive US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Energy/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -4.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.40 +81.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.8 +.05%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.6 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 +3.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 15.3 -3.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -6.0
  • Total Put/Call .89 -11.9%
  • NYSE Arms 1.41 +95.8%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$146.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.5 -.19%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 269.4 -.16%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 244 -3
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.8 +2.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.3 +2.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 136.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.7 +3.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 169.3 -.14%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 128.0 -.04%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -3.0 basis points -1.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.0 -1.0 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 145.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 684.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 59.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.13%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.30% -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.4 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -2.6%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -33.4 +1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -53.4 -7.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.4 -3.9 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(180 of 500 reporting) +6.3% +1.3 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.38 +.04:  Growth Rate +14.9% unch., P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +19.8% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 335.01 -.51: Growth Rate +24.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 32.8 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 -18.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .69 -13.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -19.0 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% -12.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.6% +1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.6%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 57.5%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +110 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +103 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/financial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long