Thursday, June 13, 2024

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @kylenabecker
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @wideawake_media
  • Australian senator, Alex Antic: Man-made climate change is "a trojan horse for globalism, led by the UN and their puppet masters". "Alarmist rhetoric about man-made climate change is nothing new. The United Nations and the media have been pushing it for decades... These prophecies of doom simply never come true. The polar bears are still here, the sea hasn't risen, the ozone layer is fine, but the point of this messaging is to make you afraid, and why? Because if a climate apocalypse is imminent, then governments of the world can centralise their power and control, and control your actions with the so-called emergency."
  • @theinformant_x
  • @jackikotkiewicz  
  • SINCE BIDEN TOOK OFFICE: Gas: +55.3% Groceries: +21.2% Eating out: +22.2% Baby food: +28.4% K-12 food: +65.1% Pet food: +23% Rent: +21.2% Electricity: +29% Natural gas: +22.2% Used cars: +20.9% Airfare: +39.9% Public transportation: +27.2% Real average weekly earnings: -3.9%.
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @VigilantFox
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @songpinganq
  • @CaptCoronado
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.25 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.3%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.4 +.7%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.9 -.11%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Falling Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Restaurant Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.5 +3.4%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .70 -45.9%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.5 -2.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.4 -.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.6 -1.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 10.1 -.1% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 +1.0
  • Total Put/Call .84 +3.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 -46.7%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$284.6M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.6 +2.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 279.2 +5.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 300 -1
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 64.0 +4.1%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 174.8 +3.4%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 basis points +8.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.5 -.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.4 +1.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.0 +.04%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 +.08%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -14.5 basis points -1.25 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 141.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 724.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.2%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour +1.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -14.2 -4.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 25.6 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.2 -1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) +7.9% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.90 +.07:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 20.9 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.83% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.12 +.13: Growth Rate +23.8% unch., P/E 33.5 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.09 +20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.01 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -44.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.56% -13.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.15% -21.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 61.6%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 49.6%(-1.2 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -95 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.6% 2) Alt Energy -2.3% 3) Gold & Silver -2.3%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CLBT, OI, TM, STLA, VIPS, CVE, ARES, DHR, ROKU, RNG, QDEL, UPST, PLAY, GFI, RGEN, QTRX and SIG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) SPCE 2) PLAY 3) URA 4) BLNK 5) YPF
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CARA 2) PLAY 3) HTZ 4) CPNG 5) PERI
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLB 2) IXC 3) XOP 4) XLC 5) XLE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +2.9% 2) Semis +.9% 3) Computer Hardware +.7%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • URGN, WLY, AMSC, AVGO, SMCI, VRNA, KFY, BILI, TAL, GME, FPI, TGS, ANET, TSLA, RNA, TME, KYTX, ACLS, CGNX, BBAR, QRVO, BMA, SRPT and CNTA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GFI 2) DISH 3) AVGO 4) AMSC 5) XPO
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) AVGO 2) SMCI 3) LGVN 4) AMSC 5) BILI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLK 3) XLF 4) VGT 5) XBI
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.9% gain in April.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in April.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence Index for June is estimated to rise to 72.0 versus 69.1 in May.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for June is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +3.3% gain in May.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, (REGN) annual meeting, (FTNT) annual meeting, (COIN) annual meeting and the (AFRM) investor meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -11.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.3 +2.5
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 25.2% of Issues Advancing, 71.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.39 -34.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$303.2M
  • 45 New 52-Week Highs, 47 New Lows
  • 53.6% (-4.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 44.0 -9.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.8 -1.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.9 -.6%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,858.7 +1.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 43.0 (FEAR) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.2 -17.4%
  • Vix 12.3 +2.2%
  • Total Put/Call .88 +8.6%

Wednesday, June 12, 2024

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.75 -1.25 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 64.25 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.8 USD/Metric Tonne +1.1%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.7 -.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.1 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.12%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.20%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.62%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Plunge, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 -4.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .77 -14.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 60.9 -3.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 185.1 +.3%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.8 +3.4%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 10.3 -16.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 134.0 -7.0
  • Total Put/Call .77 -11.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.78 +34.6%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$76.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.2 -2.8%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 267.3 -1.0%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 301 +8
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.2 -4.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 169.1 -2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 139.0 basis points -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.2 -.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 165.1 -.91%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 123.0 -.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.84 -.14%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.0 basis points +2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.0 +.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 -6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 724.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.4 +.22%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.1 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +2.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -9.9 -3.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.9 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.3 +1.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +7.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 258.83 +.10:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.0 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.85% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +52.9% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 331.99 +.25: Growth Rate +23.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.0 +.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 -19.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .94 -7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -45.25 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 50.2% +1.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.69% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 -5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 31st FOMC meeting: 91.1%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th meeting: 58.2%(+11.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +454 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -30 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/consumer discretionary/financial/tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Energy -1.2% 2) Foods -.9% 3) Steel -.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MNST, GME, RBRK and TASK
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) MTUM 2) INCY 3) WEN 4) WM 5) EWW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) VRA 2) PETS 3) EXAI 4) SHCR 5) ASTS
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) XLC 4) ARKK 5) OIH

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +2.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding +4.1% 2) Regional Banks +4.1% 3) Semis +3.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RNA, CASY, HUT, RTO, ORCL, ESI, ZG, Z, VRNA, BEAQM, ENVX, HIMS, SKY, CRSP, WAL, AMSC, SLG, AFRM, ARM, UPST, SWKS, MUSA, IREN, BRZE, RRX, OLED, ADSK, DXC, MKSI, NCNO, HAE, RKT, PLRX, AAPL, CRBP, SAP, INTU, CVNA, WHD, SIX, OSW, WBS, SLAB, ALTR, SLM, LECO, DNLI, SLM and INST
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MUB 2) ORCL 3) ZI 4) ITB 5) GLW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ORCL 2) ESI 3) CASY 4) GDHG 5) CNM
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SOXX 2) XLK 3) XLP 4) IGV 5) KRE
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (KFY)/1.12
  • (SIG)/.85
  • (MDRX)/.23
After the Close: 
  • (ADBE)/4.39
  • (RH)/-.13
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to fall to 225K versus 229K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1795K versus 1792K prior.
  • PPI Final Demand MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  • PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in April.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Treasury Secretary Yellen speaking, 30Y T-Bond auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (CPNG) annual meeting, (MNST) annual meeting, (LYFT) annual meeting, (TSLA) annual meeting, (IR) annual meeting, (GME) annual meeting, (YELP) annual meeting, (R) investor day, Jefferies Fintech Conference, RBC Medical Device Strategy/Innovation Conference, Rosenblatt Tech Summit, Sidoti Investor Conference, UBS Consumer Insights Day and the ISI Consumer/Retail Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +4.2% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.8 -2.1
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 84.7% of Issues Advancing, 13.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.79 +34.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$174.6M
  • 127 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
  • 58.4% (+9.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 53.0 +8.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.1 -3.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 236.4 +.5%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,612.6 +.92%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (NEUTRAL) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 14.3 -21.1%
  • Vix 12.4 -3.5%
  • Total Put/Call .76 -12.6%