Friday, April 12, 2024

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,111.4 -1.8%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 37,925.9 -2.6%
  • NASDAQ 16,146.7 -.74%
  • Russell 2000 1,996.7 -3.2%
  • NYSE FANG+ 10,096.3 +.5% 
  • Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 398.4 -4.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 151.2 -5.6%
  • Wilshire 5000 50,838.8 -2.0%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,342.4 -.9%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,689.4 -3.0%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 783.0 -1.2%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.2 +.1%
  • NYSE Technology 4,722.0 -1.4%
  • Transports 15,442.7 -3.0%
  • Utilities 853.2 -2.0%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 101.3 -2.0%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 40.7 -1.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 208.96 +.51%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 109.56 +.87%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 494,101 -.09%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.3 -18.9%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -37 -593
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -36.6 -4.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 300,897 +8.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,757,685 -1.0%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -30.6%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.66 +2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 102.0 -23.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.98 +81.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 -1.9%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +24.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.0 unch.
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.3 +14.0%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.16 -20.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 20.6 +13.7%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.6 +12.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.2 +8.9%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 17,013.3 +3.1%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  81.9 -2.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.080 Trillion -.5%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$.472 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 43.4 -8.3%
  • AAII % Bears 24.0 +8.1%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 47.0 (Neutral) -15.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 295.55 -.68%
  • Crude Oil 85.6/bbl. -.84%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 280.2 +1.6%
  • Natural Gas 1.77 -1.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 30.73 euros/megawatt-hour +14.5%
  • Heating Oil 268.5 -2.3% 
  • Newcastle Coal 132.95 (1,000/metric ton) +2.8%
  • Gold 2,338.2 +1.1%
  • Silver 28.0 +2.9%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 448.7 +.7%
  • Copper 426.2 +.6%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 385.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 110.8 USD/Metric Tonne +6.3%
  • CME Lumber  536.50 -6.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,494.8 -1.4%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 307.50 USD/Short Ton -1.6%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +2.4% -10.0 basis points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.9 +11.1%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 174.1 +62.0%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(29 of 500 reporting) +21.9% -17.6 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.57 +1.48:  Growth Rate +12.7% +.3 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% +2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.02 +1.13: Growth Rate +30.3% +.5 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +1.1
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 -1.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.6 -2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.0 +2.2 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 4.4%(-.4 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 95.6%(+.4 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 5/1
  • US Dollar Index 105.9 +1.6%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,722.2 -.17%
  • Bitcoin/USD 67,625.7 -1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 177.39 -.65%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) -38.25 -3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.50% +13.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.402 Trillion -.01%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $4.925 Billion -19.3%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $126.344 Billion -3.2%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.9 +2.3%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 191.69 +.03%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.0 -2.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.25 -2.6%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 72.0 -2.4%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 153.7 +4.1%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 134.0 +3.1%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 38.46 -1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.16%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 93.21 +.6%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +5.5% -10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.6% +10.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.2% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +5.0% +50.0 basis points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% +7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +3.43% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 4.31% +18.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.75 basis points +2.0 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -7.75 +1.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.75 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.25 +4.8%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 115.0 -1.8
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 275.0 +18.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 67.0 +6.0%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 194.6 +5.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 178.5 +5.4%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 771.0 -8.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .56 -4.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -1.7% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,330.4B -.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 214,250 unch.
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 48.0 -6.3%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.41% +13.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 195,700 +.05%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +4.20% +30.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -11.0% -9.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $126.8M n/a
  • Nationwide Gas $3.63/gallon +.05/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,690.0 +3.8%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,795.1/40 ft Box -1.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 2,835.5 -.52%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 58.5 +6.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 241,000 -5.1%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,636,046 +13.9%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -.7%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Value -2.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +.6%
  • Restaurants -.2%
  • Shipping -.3%
  • Internet -1.1%
  • Semis -1.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Alt Energy -3.9%
  • Homebuilders -4.3%
  • Airlines -4.4%
  • Insurance -4.6%
  • Gambling -5.3%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (4)
  • CPNG, JANX, URGN and IZM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (41)
  • BEN, BCAT, SKM, UAL, NICE, GDYN, ACN, ALCC, CEPU, BURL, CSIQ, BYON, SA, PRFT, STLA, INSM, BIDU, NTES, INTC, CZR, XMTR, ING, TEVA, KT, CPA, NEOG, SAGE, JPM, MBUU, LOVE, BLCO, APLS, VFC, EH, PLAY, ZTS and LQDA
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling Substantially into Afternoon on Escalating Mid-East War Fears, US Policy-Induced Stagflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Concerns, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(29 of 500 reporting) +21.9% -16.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.57 +.01:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.7 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.02 -.09: Growth Rate +30.3% unch., P/E 32.8 +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.15 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.0 +5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -38.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.25 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.5% +1.3 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.43% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 71.4%(-8.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 45.4%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -623 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -66 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, emerging market shorts and took profits in financial sector longs
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (SCHW)/.73
  • (GS)/8.73
  • (MTB)/3.01
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to -5.0 versus -20.9 in March.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in Feb.

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for Feb. is estimated to rise +.4% versus unch. in Jan.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated at 51.0 versus 51.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Logan speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, (SCHW) business update and the (FITB) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -5.0% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.8 -1.4
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 27.1% of Issues Advancing, 70.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .89 -27.6%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$350.1M
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 39 New Lows
  • 56.8% (-2.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 42.0 -4.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 65.9 -6.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 144.4 -.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,229.2 +.11%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (Neutral) -5.0
  • 1-Day Vix 15.8 +17.2%
  • Vix 17.3 +16.2%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -21.8%

Thursday, April 11, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.0 +3.0 basis points.
  • China Sovereign CDS 70.25 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.02%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.7 +.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.0 +.3%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on More Dovish Fed Commentary, AI-Related FANG Stock Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 15. -4.8%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .97 +20.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 69.4 +1.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.8 -.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.7 +1.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 16.8 -5.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 122.0 +15.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.0 -2.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 +42.1%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$145.9M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.6 -.86%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 263.55 +.98%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 273 -11
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.7 +1.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 187.1 +2.1%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.7 +2.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 174.0 +2.0%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 126.7 -.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.08%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -8.5 basis points -.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 775.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.6 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.40% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.4 euros/megawatt-hour +8.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 41.1 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.9 -.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.8 +3.3 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(23 of 500 reporting) +38.0% -2.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 251.56 +.06:  Growth Rate +12.7% unch., P/E 20.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.86% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.13 +.44: Growth Rate +30.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.4 +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.11 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .95 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -38.0 basis points (2s/10s) +3.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +2.4% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.2% +.5 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.43% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for June 12th FOMC meeting: 77.4%(-6.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 31st meeting: 51.8%(-5.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +233 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +320 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/transport/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Insurance -1.3% 2) Oil Service -.9% 3) Healthcare Providers -.5%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • IMO, PCN, CSAN, GWW, PTY, SGH, KVUE, RELY, CPRI, MS, EH, BIO, CSIQ, CBRL, GEN, FAST, PHAT, KMX, LOVE, ROOT and GL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ACWI 2) FAST 3) KMX 4) DRI 5) GL
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) KMX 2) GL 3) NKLA 4) FAST 5) RIVN
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) GDX 2) XLP 3) KRE 4) XRT 5) XLY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilders +1.9% 2) Semis +1.9% 3) Computer Hardware +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • ALPN, ANAB, JANX, ALXO, SERA, GCT, MAX, VERA, PARA, BLKB, CHWY, SAVA, STEP, SMTC, NEOG, TEAM and FNA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ACWI 2) NVS 3) FAST 4) IAU 5) WB
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ALPN 2) CONN 3) VERA 4) PACS 5) NTIC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) IAI 2) XLI 3) PAVE 4) XLE 5) SMH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BLK)/9.39
  • (C)/1.18
  • (JPM)/4.17
  • (STT)/1.50
  • (WFC)/1.06
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The Import Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in Feb.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for April is estimated to fall to 79.0 versus 79.4 in March.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations for April is estimated to rise +2.9% versus a +2.9% gain in March.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Bostic speaking, IEA Monthly Report, US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count, CFTC speculative positioning report and the (X) shareholder meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST