Thursday, December 26, 2024

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Reversal Lower, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Retail Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.04%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.9 +.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -4.3 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.4 -.2 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.58 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.3 +.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.57% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.44 +.29: Growth Rate +25.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.9 +.5
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 +12.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.66 +110.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 24.25 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.09% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.2% -.2 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 51.8% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 45.2%(-1.0 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +188 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +162 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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