Saturday, April 30, 2016

Today's Headlines

  • ECB QE Boost Can't Save Euro Bonds From Worst Month Since August. The first month of the European Central Bank’s expanded stimulus program has done little to aid the region’s government bonds. Even as the ECB increased its asset-purchase program to 80 billion euros ($92 billion) in April, from 60 billion euros, sovereign securities headed for their biggest monthly decline since August, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. “The whole notion of the ECB stepping up their purchases in April and May has already been front run,” said Martin van Vliet, senior interest-rate strategist at ING Groep NV in Amsterdam. “So people are starting to look at new drivers and what is important now is the steady ascent of oil prices and that is starting to feed through into inflation expectations.”
  • Iraq Declares State of Emergency as Protesters Storm Parliament. Iraq declared a state of emergency in Baghdad after supporters of Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr stormed parliament, the Interior Ministry said. Mobile-phone video footage broadcast on Iraqi news channel al-Sharqiya showed hundreds of al-Sadr’s supporters inside the legislature on Saturday. Al-Sadr earlier on Saturday accused lawmakers of sectarianism in their selection of ministers and ordered his bloc to withdraw from the parliament session where members were preparing to finish voting on a new cabinet.
  • Dollar Takes Helm of Global Markets After Worst Week Since 2008. The dollar is plunging so far, so fast, its shockwaves are reverberating far beyond the $5.3-trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market. The greenback plunged the most this week since 2008 versus the yen after economic reports trailed forecasts, damping the outlook for growth as Federal Reserve policy makers await evidence needed to justify more interest-rate increases. The U.S. currency has eroded more than half its 9 percent surge last year, with one measure of dollar momentum approaching a level that indicates to some analysts that it is oversold and set to reverse direction.
  • Oil Market Deja Vu Triggers Predictions of a Return to $30. (video) Oil’s climb above $45 a barrel is reassuring influential figures from BP Plc to the International Energy Agency that the industry is finally recovering from the worst slump in a generation. Others say the market is about to fall into the same trap as last year. There’s a sense of deja vu at Commerzbank AG, BNP Paribas SA and UBS Group AG, who say crude’s gain of about 70 percent from a 12-year low in January resembles the recovery that took hold this time last year -- only to sputter out by May as the supply glut endured. Prices will sink back towards $30 a barrel in the coming weeks, BNP and UBS warn.
  • Exxon's(XOM) Worrying Lack of Worry.
  • Icahn Is the Bear in Apple's China Shop.
  • Donald Trump ‘Will Get Crushed in the Fall,’ John Kasich Says. "His best day is going to be the day he walks in, and from there his support will decline,’’ Kasich said of Trump.
Wall Street Journal:
  • The Climate Police Escalate. A subpoena hits a think tank that resists progressive orthodoxy. Sometimes we wonder if we’re still living in the land of the free. Witness the subpoena from Claude Walker, attorney general of the U.S. Virgin Islands, demanding that the Competitive Enterprise Institute cough up a decade of emails and policy work, as well as a list of private donors.
  • Had bullish commentary on (ENR), (FRGI), (JCP), (FFIV) and (MSG).
Fox News:
  • Cruz team attacks Trump for touting Tyson endorsement, while in Indiana. (video) The campaign for Sen. Ted Cruz and one of its PACs are attacking rival Donald Trump for his allegiance to former pro boxing champion Mike Tyson, who was convicted of rape in Indiana, which holds a primary Tuesday. The Trusted Leadership PAC has released an online video pointing out that Trump said Tyson, a Trump supporter, was “railroaded” in the 1991 conviction. “One of the leaders in the effort to keep Tyson out of prison is Donald Trump,” a TV news-reader is heard saying in the 30-second video, over archived moving and still pictures of Trump, including one of him beside Tyson.
  • For Trump, why Goldwater history will repeat itself in the fall. (video) Donald Trump supporters and some pundits like to fantasize that the real estate magnate will put blue states like New York, Massachusetts and California in play this fall against Hillary Clinton while also running strong in the industrial Midwest. Trump could win! It's not gonna happen. Trump, should he lock down the nomination next week by winning Indiana, will go into the fall campaign as the most toxic Republican nominee since Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Zero Hedge:
Business Insider:
The Telegraph:
  • Dallas Fed cautions on fresh oil bubble as glut keeps building. The US Federal Reserve has warned that the world is awash with excess oil and starting to run out of places to store the glut, with no sustained recovery in sight for the oil industry until 2017 at the earliest. Robert Kaplan, head of the Dallas Fed, poured cold water over talk of a fresh oil boom this year and said the US shale industry has taken far longer to cut output than many expected. “As we sit here today, Dallas Fed economists estimate that global daily oil production exceeds daily consumption by more than 1m barrels per day,” he told the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum in London. “Excess inventories in the OECD member countries now stand at approximately 440m barrels. This is a record level and has raised concerns about whether there is sufficient storage capacity in certain geographic areas,” he said.
  • EU red tape is suffocating UK economy and Brexit can set us free
  • EU Referendum: Poll shows Britain split 50/50 - but higher turnout among older voters could tip country into Brexit. The over-65s are the age group most likely to vote - and most likely to vote to leave the EU. The British public is split 50/50 on whether to leave the EU but a higher turnout among the Outers could tip the balance in favour of Brexit, according to an opinion poll for The Independent. Given a straight choice, 50 per cent of people said Britain should leave and 50 per cent that it should remain. But when the findings were weighted to take account of people’s likelihood to vote, the result changed to 51 per cent for Leave and 49 per cent for Remain. The online survey of 2,000 people by ORB, conducted between Wednesday and Friday (29), suggests that Barack Obama’s intervention in the debate has not been the game-changer the In camp was hoping for. Although 23 per cent said his support for the UK remaining in the EU had made it more likely they would vote to stay in, 66 per cent said it had not. And 45 per cent said they had felt more inclined to vote to leave in the past seven days, while 43 per cent were more inclined to support remaining.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Market Week in Review

  • S&P 500 2,059.83 -1.52%*
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The Weekly Wrap by

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

  • S&P 500 2,059.83 -1.52%
  • DJIA 17,770.3 -1.34%
  • NASDAQ 4,772.86 -2.77%
  • Russell 2000 1,129.11 -1.53%
  • S&P 500 High Beta 30.57 -1.89%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 105.21 -2.24
  • Wilshire 5000 21,266.90 -1.33%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 990.83 -1.95%
  • Russell 1000 Value 989.87 -1.02%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 534.64 +.57%
  • Solactive US Cyclical 132.33 -1.86%
  • Morgan Stanley Technology 1,035.78 -2.28%
  • Transports 7,864.38 -2.75%
  • Utilities 651.54 +1.97%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 81.94 -2.62%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 34.39 -.68%
  • HFRX Equity Hedge 1,127.19 -.03%
  • HFRX Equity Market Neutral 990.40 -.33%
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 249,302 +.87%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 161.0 +63
  • Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.57 -32.15%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 334,175 +15.57%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,714,186 -4.95%
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 +18.19%
  • OEX Put/Call .73 -63.5%
  • ISE Sentiment 59.0 -43.56%
  • NYSE Arms 1.0 +11.82%
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.57 +28.29%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 57.36 +6.62%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 10.98 -2.14%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 10.37 -2.72%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,134.63 -.39%
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.709 Trillion +.38%
  • ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$3.245 Billion
  • AAII % Bulls 27.4 -18.1%
  • AAII % Bears 28.6 +19.6%
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 184.61 +2.76%
  • Crude Oil 46.06 +5.1%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 158.48 +3.24%
  • Natural Gas 2.16 +1.17%
  • Heating Oil 137.79 +5.09%
  • Gold 1,294.40 +4.79%
  • Bloomberg Base Metals Index 151.16 +1.41%
  • Copper 227.50 +.44%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 218.33 USD/Ton unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.24 USD/Ton -.14%
  • Lumber 294.70 +4.76%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,132.94 +3.03%
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.8% +140.0 basis points
  • ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +4.5% +100.0 basis points
  • Philly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.3653 +5.46%
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 123.10 -.19%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.20 -6.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.0 +4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.7 +.7 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 88.0% chance of no change, 12.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 6/15
  • US Dollar Index 93.09 -2.13%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,524.87 +.69%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.69 -2.58%
  • Yield Curve 105.0-2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 1.82% -7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.435 Trillion -.35%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.51 +3.91%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 330.0 -2.09%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 24.97 -5.50%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 54.31 -3.22%
  • Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 127.19 -2.77%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.50 -2.83%
  • Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 983.32 -1.62
  • Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 246.22 -.76%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.96 -.12%
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.71% +6.0 basis points
  • TED Spread 42.5 +1.5 basis points
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.50 +.5 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 78.19 +5.9%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 1,050.0 +1.17%
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 89.76 +9.68%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 283.60 +.08%
  • CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 155.0 -7.5 basis points
  • M1 Money Supply $3.145 Trillion -1.02%
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,109.50 -.1%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 256,000 -4,500
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.6% unch.
  • Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.66% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 505.40 -4.06%
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.4 +.5 point
  • Weekly Retail Sales +.80% unch.
  • Nationwide Gas $2.20/gallon +.08/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 710.0 +3.2%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 632.36 -3.11%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.50 -13.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 261,347 +.78%
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Value -.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Growth -2.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +12.8%
  • Tobacco +4.0%
  • Steel +2.6%
  • Defense +1.3%
  • Utilities +1.0%
Lagging Sectors
  • Homebuilders -46% 
  • Gaming -4.8%
  • Computer Hardware -4.9%
  • I-Banks -5.7%
  • Biotech -7.0%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (25)
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (19)
Weekly Charts
*5-Day Change

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Yen Strength, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Slightly Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.83 +10.38%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 127.67 -.42%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.37 +.19%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.67 +6.73%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 58.0 -45.79%
  • Total Put/Call 1.17 +18.18%
  • NYSE Arms 1.08 -1.27% 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 78.04 +2.14%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,050.0 -2.75%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.76 +4.84%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 24.97 -4.62%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 54.31 -4.42%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 284.0 +2.43%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 126.96 -.27%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 14.0 +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 42.50 +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.59 +.36%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .20% -2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 105.0 unch.
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $66.24/Metric Tonne +5.31%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -31.40 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.0 -2.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.70 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72% -1.0 basis point
  • 24.3% chance of Fed rate hike at July 27 meeting, 41.0% chance at September 21 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -741 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -42 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +29 open in Germany
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my index hedges and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long