Wednesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- Steel prices in the U.S. fell 3.1 percent in June, the 11th straight monthly decline, as a global recession prevents steelmakers from charging more for their products. The average price of hot-rolled steel sheet, the benchmark product used in cars and appliances, dropped to $380 a ton from $392 in May, Purchasing Magazine said today in a monthly update. Cold-rolled sheet slipped 2.1 percent to $467 a ton. Hot-rolled steel prices have plunged 64 percent from a record $1,068 a ton in July as the slowing global economy reduced demand for automobiles, appliances and homes. “The steel market continues to be sluggish, despite protestations by some analysts that recovery has begun,” the magazine said. Prices for hot-rolled steel were the lowest in June since the spot-market price averaged $350 in January 2004, according to data published last month by the trade magazine. “U.S. end-user purchasing is expected to remain weak for remainder of 2009,” the magazine said. “The steel makers admit very little marketplace impact from the government’s fiscal stimulus package is expected this year.”

- Sentiment among Japan’s largest manufacturers rose less than economists estimated in June, signaling the economy may be slow to recover from its deepest postwar recession. An index of confidence among large makers of electronics, cars and other products climbed to minus 48 from a record minus 58 in March, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed today in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted minus 43.

- The U.S. Treasury Department is set to name eight to 10 asset managers for the Public-Private Investment Program as soon as this week, a person familiar with the matter said today. Once the asset managers have signed deals with Treasury, they each will be expected to raise at least $500 million of private capital within 12 weeks, according to Treasury program documents. Pacific Investment Management Co. and BlackRock Inc. have been among the leading candidates for the slots. Other companies that have said they applied include Bank of New York Mellon Corp.’s Boston-based Standish bond unit; Atlanta-based Invesco Ltd. and its affiliate, WL Ross & Co.; Baltimore’s Legg Mason Inc.; and TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles.

Wall Street Journal:

- Some of the states worst hit by the recession are getting far less federal economic-stimulus money per person than states faring better. Nevada, where unemployment stood at about 10% when the plan was passed, is getting $541 for each resident from the stimulus money allocated so far, a Wall Street Journal analysis found. Wyoming, where the 3.9% jobless rate was the lowest in the country in February, is getting $1,074 per person. Florida, North Carolina and Oregon are among the other states with relatively low per-capita payouts, despite battling double-digit unemployment. North Dakota and South Dakota, meanwhile, are also receiving large quantities of stimulus money relative to their small populations -- even while unemployment remains about half the national average.

- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. on Thursday is expected to propose tough new guidelines for private-equity investors seeking to buy failed banks, people familiar with the matter said. The issue is a tricky one for the FDIC. It wants to open the door for more types of investors to buy failed banks, reducing the potential cost to the agency of bank collapses. At the same time, it wants to prevent largely unregulated private-equity firms from acting too aggressively. The proposal is expected to deter private equity investors from buying and flipping failed banks and could include a mandatory investment period. The proposal is also expected to require private-equity investors to hold higher capital reserves than traditional banks would be required to hold. The proposal could require private equity investors that own several banks to offer some sort of cross-guarantee, so that one bank owned by the investors might have to serve as a source of strength to the other banks. And there could be another requirement that the private-equity investors remain a behind-the-scenes source of capital, beyond their initial investment. It's unclear how private equity investors will react to the proposal, in part because the full details haven't been released. Some investors said overly stringent regulations could kill private-equity interest.

- Gannett Co.(GCI), the largest U.S. newspaper publisher by daily circulation, will cut more than 1,000 jobs in response to continuing revenue declines, according to a person familiar with the company's thinking. The cuts will come from the U.S. Community Publishing division, which consists of Gannett's more than 80 local dailies, the person said.

- On top of the lumps taken from the credit crisis, stock-market declines and the recession, hedge-fund and private-equity firms now have a real-estate problem. After loading up on lavish office space near the top of the market, some firms are trying to sublease what they don't need for as much as 30% less than their rental rate. New York hedge-fund firm Trafelet & Co. and Duff Capital Advisors, a Greenwich, Conn., hedge-fund firm started last year, have paid their landlords to take back office space. It is a classic buy-high, sell-low squeeze with no end in sight. In midtown Manhattan, a record 8.9 million square feet of high-quality, class "A" office space -- equivalent to more than three Empire State Buildings -- is available for sublet, according to brokerage Jones Lang LaSalle.

- Obama administration officials will announce rules Wednesday for handing out $7.2 billion in broadband stimulus funds, but some companies already are raising concerns about how long it could take to award the money. Officials are expected to detail how they plan to distribute $4.7 billion in broadband money from the Commerce Department in grants and $2.5 billion from the Agriculture Department in grants or loans. Commerce Department officials will still be doling out the first of three rounds of broadband grants in December. Such a delay, business groups and some states say, could push back construction of some projects in northern states to next summer or 2011.

- The odors, respiratory complaints and corrosion blamed on drywall from China used in American homes may have been caused by the failure to remove sulfur and other contaminants from synthetic gypsum, some Chinese experts in building materials say. The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission in recent months has received more than 550 reports from people in 19 states and the District of Columbia involving odors, health symptoms and corrosion problems they blame on imported Chinese drywall.

- The U.S. International Trade Commission recommended imposing punitive duties of as much as 55% on low-cost Chinese tire imports because they are disrupting the U.S. market, in a move that could sharply increase costs for consumers.

NY Times:

- The trend of cable news viewers moving away from CNN continued in the second quarter of 2009 with MSNBC beating CNN in weeknights for the first time ever for a full quarter of a year. Neither was anywhere near the Fox News Channel of course, which, as it has all year, posted enormous audience gains in the second quarter. On weeknights in prime time, Fox averaged 2.5 million viewers for the quarter, while MSNBC averaged 954,000 and CNN had 941,000. The real growth among the news networks continues to be posted by Fox, which completed the best 6-month period in its history. For the second quarter Fox News Channel was up 50 per cent from the previous year. Mr. O’Reilly was up 31 per cent. Glenn Beck, though not in prime time, improved his time period by 110 per cent.

- YouTube confirmed on Tuesday that Steve Chen, a co-founder and most recently YouTube’s chief technology officer, was no longer working at the company. Mr. Chen left some time ago to work on unspecified engineering projects at its parent, Google.

IBD:

- Taleo Corp. (TLEO) markets software that helps customers recruit and retain employees. But right now it's winning business because it's not slashing its own payroll, CEO Michael Gregoire says.

Politico:

- Republican Norm Coleman has conceded to Democrat Al Franken in the Minnesota Senate race, ending one of the longest Senate races in American history and clearing the way for Democrats to hold a 60-seat supermajority in the Senate.

Rasmussen:

- Americans have mixed feelings about the historic climate change bill that passed the House on Friday, but 42% say it will hurt the U.S. economy. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 19% believe the climate change bill passed by the House on Friday will help the economy. Fifteen percent (15%) say it will have no impact, and 24% are not sure. A majority of both Republicans (56%) and adults not affiliated with either major political party (52%) think the bill will hurt the economy. Among Democrats, however, 30% say it will help the economy, 23% that it will hurt and 21% say it will have no impact.

Washington Post:

- U.S. securities regulators are considering changing how companies are required to disclose stock options awarded to executives, people familiar with the Securities and Exchange Commission's thinking told Reuters on Tuesday. At an SEC meeting on Wednesday, the commissioners also will propose giving investors a greater voice in setting executive pay at companies that were given taxpayer funds under the U.S. government's Troubled Asset Relief Program. Among the possible changes is a revision to how companies value equity awards in the "summary compensation table" for top executives that they file with the commission each year. The SEC is considering requiring companies to include the estimated value for stock options granted during the year, the people said.

CommonDreams.Org:

- General Electric(GE), the world's largest industrial company, has quietly become the biggest beneficiary of one of the government's key rescue programs for banks. At the same time, GE has avoided many of the restrictions facing other financial giants getting help from the government. The company did not initially qualify for the program, under which the government sought to unfreeze credit markets by guaranteeing debt sold by banking firms. But regulators soon loosened the eligibility requirements, in part because of behind-the-scenes appeals from GE. As a result, GE has joined major banks collectively saving billions of dollars by raising money for their operations at lower interest rates.

TheDeal.com:

- Registering venture capital firms -- along with hedge funds and private equity firms -- with the Securities and Exchange Commission, as President Obama's administration plans to do, would be "very burdensome" for small VC firms, said Michael Stark, co-founder and general partner at Crosslink Capital. "I think registering with the SEC would kill a three-partner VC firm," said Stark. The National Venture Capital Association is actively lobbying the Obama administration to not tarnish the VC industry with the same brush as leverage-backed asset classes, such as hedge funds, as it embarks on a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations. "There are enough smart people in the Obama administration to figure out the differences between asset classes," Stark concluded confidently.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Citigroup:

- Reiterated Buy on (GLW), target $20.50.

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index unch..
S&P 500 futures -.03%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (STZ)/.32

- (GIS)/.81

- (NS)/.98

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

- The ADP Employment Change for June is estimated to shrink to -395K versus -532K in May.

10:00 am EST

- ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 44.6 versus 42.8 in May.

- ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to rise to 47.0 versus 43.5 in May.

- Construction Spending for May is estimated to fall .6% versus a .8% gain April.

- Pending Home Sales for May are estimated unch. versus a 6.7% gain in April.

10:30 am EST

- Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,000,000 barrels versus a -3,868,000 barrel decrease the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +2,000,000 barrels versus a +3,871,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are expected to rise by +1,500,000 barrels versus a +2,077,000 barrel increase the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.05% versus a +1.16% gain the prior week.

Afternoon:

- Total Vehicle Sales for June are estimated at 9.8M versus 9.9M in May.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Evans speaking, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Challenger Job Cuts report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by insurance and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower, Weighed Down by Hospital, Commodity, Airline and Financial Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Global Growth Worries

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower into the final hour on losses in my Medical longs, Internet longs and Financial longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are falling and volume is below average. Investor anxiety is very high. Today’s overall market action is mildly bearish. The VIX is rising 5.92% and is high at 26.85. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 113.0 and the total put/call is high at 1.08. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running very high most of the day, hitting 2.76 at its intraday peak, and is currently 2.51. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling 6.31% today to 106.0 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 2.41% to 132.46 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is rising .76% to 42 basis points. The TED spread is now down 422 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 10.82% to 42.06 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is rising .56% to 38 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is rising 8 basis points to 1.78%, which is down 86 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .17%, which is down 1 basis point today. Despite the headline losses in the major averages, many market leading stocks are just slightly lower or even higher on the day. As well, breadth isn’t too bad as small-caps hug the flatline. It is also a positive to see below average volume with a very high NYSE Arms reading. REITs have been a source of strength throughout the day. Finally, the large drop in the euro financial sector credit default swap index is a big positive. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some short-covering into the close as the bears fail to gain downside traction despite a poor consumer confidence reading. Nikkei futures indicate a -68 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate an +3 open in Germany tomorrow. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, declining credit market angst, quarter-end window dressing, lower energy prices and investment manager performance anxiety.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

- India said it will reject any new treaty to limit global warming that makes the country reduce greenhouse-gas emissions because that will undermine its energy consumption, transportation and food security. Cutting back on climate-warming gases is a measure that instead must be taken by industrialized countries, and India is mobilizing developing nations to push that case, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh told the media today in New Delhi. “India will not accept any emission-reduction target -- period,” Ramesh said. “This is a non-negotiable stand.” “We are not re-negotiating the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change,” Ramesh said, referring to the treaty that entered into force in 1994 and laid the groundwork for emissions cuts by richer nations. “There is no way India is going to accept any emission reduction target, period, between now and the Copenhagen meeting and thereafter.” “We reject the use of climate as a non-tariff barrier,” the minister said. “We comprehensively and categorically reject any attempt to introduce climate change” as part of World Trade Organization talks.

- Confidence among U.S. consumers slipped unexpectedly in June, reflecting a weak labor market and rising energy costs. The Conference Board’s sentiment index decreased to 49.3 from a revised 54.8 in May, the New York-based research group said today. “Consumers are feeling the heat this summer from rising gasoline prices to seized-up labor markets,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at Horizon Investments in Charlotte, North Carolina. That “could keep third-quarter consumer spending muted,” slowing an economic recovery, he said. Economists forecast confidence would rise to 55.3 from 54.9 in the prior month, according to the median of 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The Conference Board’s measure of present conditions decreased to 24.8 from 29.7 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months fell to 65.5 from 71.5. The share of consumers who said more jobs will be available in the next six months fell to 17.4 percent from 19.3 percent. The proportion of people who said they expect their incomes to rise over the next six months decreased to 9.8 percent from 10.8 percent. The share of consumers who said jobs were plentiful fell to 4.5 percent, the lowest since February 1992, from 5.8 percent. Those saying jobs were hard to get increased to 44.8 percent from 43.9 percent.

- Delinquency rates on the least risky mortgages more than doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier as U.S. efforts to help homeowners failed to keep pace with job losses that pushed more borrowers toward foreclosure. Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said today in a report. First-time foreclosure filings on the loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter, the report said.

- Simon Young, deputy director of research and development for China Cosco Holdings Co., Asia’s biggest container-shipping line, said, “There is too much speculation. There are too many financial institutions involved in this sector.”

- Corn plunged by the Chicago Board of Trade’s limit after a government report showed U.S. farmers planted more acreage with the grain than estimated in March. Wheat and soybeans also tumbled on signs of increasing supplies.

- Commodity assets under management expanded by $34 billion this quarter, the second-largest increase on record, Barclays Capital said. The assets total about $210 billion at the end of the second quarter, Barclays said in a report e-mailed today. The biggest jump was $43 billion in the second quarter last year, said Amrita Sen, a Barclays analyst in London. New inflows were $7 billion at the time, compared with $15 billion this quarter, she said. “Price increases are likely to flatten out” in the next two quarters, Sen said. “Then investment flows are also likely to stabilize rather than grow at the pace they have been growing” this year.

- Gains by commodity currencies may peter out in the second half amid waning risk appetite, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc said. “We remain skeptical that the Australian dollar and commodity currencies have all that much further to run,” Greg Gibbs, a strategist in Sydney at RBS, wrote today in a report. “As we head into the second half of the year, global data disappointments are expected to increase. Asset markets will appear to have run out of upside potential and risk of a correction in global risk appetite will increase.”

- Rates to ship coal, iron ore and other goods will fall 15% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months as China imports less ore to make steel, UBS AG said. “There is no doubt the last months have been unprecedented and unsustainable” when it comes to China’s iron-ore imports, Peter Hickson, a global strategist for basic materials at UBS said at a conference.

- The U.K. economy shrank more than previously estimated in the first quarter in the biggest contraction since 1958 as the recession choked industries from construction to services. Gross domestic product fell 2.4 percent from the final three months of 2008, compared with the prior measurement of a 1.9 percent drop, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. The median prediction in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists was for a 2.1 percent decline. Construction activity plunged almost three times as much as originally estimated.

- German unemployment rose to the highest since 2007 in June as falling demand and rising bankruptcies forced companies to cut jobs.

- European consumer prices recorded their first annual decline this month as energy costs fell and the economic slump pushed unemployment to a 10-year high. The 0.1 percent drop in euro-region prices is the first since compilation of the data began in 1996, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said in an initial estimate today. Loans to households and companies in Europe grew at the slowest pace on record in May, a separate report from the European Central Bank showed today.

- Al-Qaeda threatened revenge against France for President Nicolas Sarkozy’s comments that the burqa garment is “not welcome” in his country, Agence France-Presse reported, citing the SITE Intelligence group, which tracks terrorist Web sites.

- A car bomb in the northern Iraqi oil hub of Kirkuk killed at least 41 people and wounded 120 others on the day U.S. forces withdrew from all the Middle Eastern country’s cities.

- BP Plc and China National Petroleum Corp. won the right to develop Rumaila, the largest Iraqi oil field in today’s licensing round, as the war-torn country seeks to more than double production over the next six years. The six oil and two gas fields in today’s bidding round may yield $1.7 trillion in profit over 20 years for the country, Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said in a speech broadcast on live television. “It’s a great move forward for Iraq and the revenue is enormous,” Peter McGuire, managing director of Commodity Warrants Australia, said in a Bloomberg TV interview yesterday. “So it’s a massive amount of money for Iraq, huge.” Holder of the world’s third-largest oil reserves, Iraq is struggling to raise output and revenue from crude sales after six years of conflict and prior sanctions destroyed the economy and infrastructure. The government aims to boost oil output to 4 million barrels a day within the next five years, from about 2.4 million barrels. Rumaila, which now produces 956,000 barrels of oil a day, is the largest field on offer and the first awarded today. The BP group proposed to boost Rumaila’s output to a plateau of 2.85 million barrels of oil a day at an average cost of $3.99 a barrel, according to the initial bid presentation. Iraq later this year plans to hold a second auction round for 11 oil and gas fields with the aim to boost production to about 6 million barrels a day by 2015. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, produces 8 million barrels a day.

FINalternatives:
- Austin Capital Management, a fund of hedge funds shop that had some 7.5% of its assets invested with Ponzi scheme mastermind Bernard Madoff, is going on the defensive against a lawsuit filed on behalf of two New Mexico state funds. The firm, which is based in the Texas capital, said last week that it would “vigorously” defend itself against the lawsuit, filed by the National Education Association of New Mexico, a teachers union, over $25 million in losses suffered by state’s Educational Retirement Board and State Investment Council. The union lawsuit alleges that Austin ignored several red flags because of its longstanding relationship with Madoff, who was sentenced to 150 years in prison for running a $65 billion Ponzi scheme yesterday.

Business Insider:

- Tax Hikes, Coming Soon! Every politician (except Michael Dukakis) has campaigned on some version of "no new taxes" and most ended up breaking that promise. It's how we do things in America, and as voters we've come to accept how it works. We're masochists. We like to be lied to. Obama said he wouldn't raise taxes on anyone making under $250,000, a promise that's technically already been violated by new taxes on cigarettes and his pledge to sign cap & trade if it gets through The Senate. His aides would say those don't count. But evens setting those aside, real tax hikes are almost certainly in the works, if only due to the massive amount of new spending (particularly on healthcare) this government has planned. The idea that it can all be financed on the (dwindling) $250k+ crowd is absurd. Altman believes that sometime next year the Congress will be forced to bring up a new tax, possibly some kind of Europe-like VAT scheme. Others have suggested that Obama will wait until after the 2012 election, when he's a lame duck though that may be too long a wait if the budget situation continues to deteriorate. Bear in mind, this isn't all coming from Wall Street or conservative publications eager to undermine Obama's presidency. Liberal commentator Matthew Yglesias penned a highly praised piece for the American Prospect arguing that liberals needed to embrace taxes sooner rather than later, and that selling Americans on the idea of higher taxes should be part and parcel with selling Americans on the idea of a more active role for government in life -- which Obama has done pretty well, both in the campaign and since taking office:

NY Post:

- JPMorgan Chase(JPM) boss Jamie Dimon is considering jacking up base salaries for his investment bankers as bailed-out rivals like Citigroup(C) and Bank of America(BAC) move to sweeten their compensation packages to lure talent.

LA Times:

- Reporting from Washington -- The Environmental Protection Agency will announce today that it is granting California's request to impose tough restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks -- reversing the Bush administration's position and opening the way for the state to take the lead on global-warming policy. California developed the standards in 2004 but was barred from implementing them. EPA officials say granting California the waiver from federal standards gives the state wide latitude to promulgate stricter rules, restoring a 40-year interpretation of the Clean Air Act.

Rassmussen:

- The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows that 31% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-three percent (33%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That matches the lowest level yet recorded (see trends).

Politico:

- Republicans believe a handful of junior House Democrats may have taken a career-ending vote by supporting the controversial energy bill last week and are planning to launch an ad campaign in targeted districts to try to seal their fate. The National Republican Congressional Committee is planning to air TV and radio commercials and unleash robocalls against Democrats who hail from districts that could be adversely affected by the narrowly passed legislation, are GOP-leaning or both. Those likely to find themselves with targets on their back after the 219-212 vote: freshman Reps. Harry Teague of New Mexico, Betsy Markey of Colorado, John Boccieri of Ohio, Thomas Perriello of Virginia and Alan Grayson of Florida and second-termer Zack Space of Ohio. “There’s a reason why over 40 Democrats in swing districts voted against this,” said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain.

Washington Times:

- Former Vice President Dick Cheney on Monday expressed concern that the pending pullout of U.S. troops from Iraq's cities could reverse the military progress made by American and Iraqi forces there since the George W. Bush administration's 2007 surge. "I hope the Iraqis can deal with it," Mr. Cheney told The Washington Times' "America's Morning News" radio show. "At some point, they have to stand on their own, but I would not want to see the U.S. waste all the tremendous sacrifice that has gotten us to this point."

USA Today:

- Trying to attract passengers in a recession, airlines are selling tickets much cheaper than a year ago. Fares for travel next month are as much as 63% lower than last summer, according to an analysis by FareCompare.com.

Reuters:
- Nigeria is currently pumping 1.739 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and 560,000 bpd of condensate, the state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Monday. The total amount of production shut in by years of militant attacks and funding shortfalls currently stood at 1.26 million bpd, NNPC spokesman Levi Ajuonoma told Reuters. Industry experts say Nigeria has never been able to produce at its full installed capacity of 3 million bpd, due to violence in the Niger Delta and to funding problems.

- Cisco Systems Inc(CSCO) is considering offering Web-based alternatives to Microsoft Corp's(MSFT) popular Office software as the networking giant expands on the Internet.

- U.S. investigators believe 10 or more people associated with imprisoned swindler Bernard Madoff could be criminally charged in the coming months or beyond, a law enforcement source said on Tuesday. The source, who asked not be identified because of the ongoing investigation into the multibillion-dollar Madoff fraud, said the FBI was "closer to the beginning than the end" of the probe.

- General Electric Co (GE) is teaming up with U.S. biotech company Geron Corp (GERN) to use stem cells to develop products that could give drug developers

an early warning of whether new medicines are toxic. The venture is the largest U.S. conglomerate's most direct attempt to make a commercial products from human embryonic stem cells.

Financial Times:
- Beijing’s order that all new PCs should include internet filtering software is about to be put to the test, with personal computer makers set to miss a deadline on Wednesday for supplying all new machines with the program. s a practical matter, it would be several weeks before most new machines available to Chinese purchasers could carry the software, even if China pushes ahead with the order in spite of international consternation, say retail and PC industry experts. That delay could serve to defuse the issue and provide more time for a face-saving compromise to be found, some observers say. The Chinese authorities “are kind of embarrassed about this, finding a graceful way out of it would be very welcome”, said Rob Enderle, a US PC industry analyst.

The Jerusalem Post:
- Israel rejected as "scandalous" a highly critical report released by the International Committee of the Red Cross on Monday marking six months since Operation Cast Lead, saying it was inconceivable that the document would chastise Israel for the situation in Gaza while ignoring the continued detention of IDF soldier Gilad Schalit or the "intransigent belligerence" of Hamas.

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
Large-cap Value (-1.42%)

Sector Underperformers:
Gold (-3.05%), Hospitals (-2.59%) and Oil Tankers (-2.56%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
SFLY, ASBC, TNE, PTR, SNP, SCHN, RBCN, IBKC, PWRD, SNDA, BIIB, CYOU, SAFM, DXPE, SBUX, TTES, CRTX, DRIV, ADSK, NTES, VCLK, TKG, COO, EE and TGI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) ELX 2) CBS 3) CIT 4) NVDA 5) AIG

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
Small-cap Growth (-.25%)

Sector Outperformers:
Education (+5.44%), REITs (+.56%) and Semis (+.17%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
HRB, APOL, ESI, RPT, FUJI, FDX, XCO, TEO, EQIX, JOSB, XNPT, ERTS, LNCR, CPLA, CECO, STRA and PKG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1) CAVM 2) GERN 3) APOL 4) ALU 5) STT

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot Commentary
Market Performance Summary
Style Performance
Sector Performance
WSJ Data Center
Top 20 Biz Stories
IBD Breaking News
Movers & Shakers
Upgrades/Downgrades
In Play
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
Option Dragon
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
Chart Toppers
Real-Time Intraday Quote/Chart
HFR Global Hedge Fund Indices

Tuesday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:

- The cost to protect against defaults on U.S. corporate bonds fell to the lowest in two weeks, tracking a rally in stocks, before data this week that may bolster speculation the recession has bottomed. Swaps on the Markit CDX North America Investment-Grade Index Series 12, which is used to speculate on the creditworthiness of 125 companies in the U.S. and Canada or to protect against losses on their debt, fell 5 basis points to 135 basis points as of 4:30 p.m. in New York, according to CMA DataVision. “The improved economic outlook, favorable relative value versus other asset classes and a propitious technical backdrop will unite to keep performance positive through year-end,” Barclays Capital credit strategists led by Ashish Shah in New York wrote in a June 26 note to clients. Credit-default swaps on Black & Decker Corp.(BDK), the largest U.S. power-tool maker, dropped the most in four weeks, signaling an improvement in investor confidence. The contracts fell 10 basis points to 163 basis points, according to CMA. Swaps on American Express Co.(AXP), the biggest credit-card company in the U.S. by purchases, fell 9 basis points to 231 basis points, the most since June 2, CMA data show.

- Admiral Timothy Keating, the U.S. commander in the Pacific region, said the military is ready to handle any orders it might receive in response to North Korea’s threatened missile launches and potential illicit shipments. “North Korea’s activities are very disturbing and unsettling to all of us,” said Keating, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, to an audience at the Atlantic Council policy analysis group in Washington late today in response to a question. The military is prepared to protect “American property, American citizens and American territory,” Keating said. “We don’t want to tip our hand too much.” The U.S. has been tracking a North Korean vessel on grounds that it may be carrying nuclear or missile technology barred from transfer under two United Nations Security Council resolutions.

- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez said Honduran military leaders supporting the ouster of President Manuel Zelaya should “take great care” because any assault on his country’s embassy would be a “cause for war.” “If anything happens to the Venezuelan ambassador or if the embassy is raided, that’s cause for war. Cause for war.” Chavez said on state television.

- China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, will increase fuel prices by as much as 11 percent today, allowing the nation’s refiners to pass on climbing crude oil costs. Prices for gasoline and diesel will rise by 600 yuan ($87.80) a metric ton, the National Development and Reform Commission said yesterday, the third increase this year. Jet fuel costs will rise by 620 yuan a ton.

Wall Street Journal:

- The securities firms still standing on Wall Street are about to close the most lucrative quarter since the credit crisis erupted. And instead of relying on risk and leverage to drive profits, companies such as J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp. are getting back to basics, with a strong performance from trading and underwriting. Investor confidence in the debt markets fueled issuance of $1.5 trillion globally from the start of the second quarter through Monday, according to Dealogic. That was slightly lower than in the first quarter, but the latest results showed a rebound in high-yield issuance. Equity offerings reached nearly $260 billion during the second quarter, which ends Tuesday. That is almost four times the amount recorded during the first quarter, and the highest since 2008's second quarter, Dealogic said. In trading, the gap between bid and offer prices on fixed-income assets remained wide through most of the quarter, boosting profits from buying and selling these securities. Fixed-income trading is one of the main earnings drivers for big Wall Street firms. "The banks are making money the old-fashioned way, by making markets," said Douglas Sipkin, an analyst with Pali Capital in New York.

- The beleaguered auto industry could see signs of strengthening demand when auto makers report U.S. sales for June on Wednesday, according to auto makers and analysts. Buoyed by fewer jobless claims and improved consumer confidence, annualized U.S. sales could hit 10 million this month for the first time in 2009, Ford Motor Co. analyst George Pipas said on Monday. The deep discounts that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have offered to boost sales are also likely to bolster June sales. Those factors suggest "the worst is behind us," Mr. Pipas said.

- A House committee is investigating the recent resignation of Amtrak's inspector general, citing concerns about oversight at the publicly funded corporation at a time when it is set to spend more than $1 billion in federal stimulus funds. Reps. Edolphus Towns (D., N.Y.) and Darrell Issa (R., Calif.), the chairman and ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, launched an investigation Monday following the resignation this month of Fred Weiderhold, Amtrak's longtime inspector general.

CNBC.com:
- The U.S. Treasury is planning to roll out its long-awaited Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) plan, aiming to unveil it on Wednesday. The program should include as many as nine participants. CNBC has confirmed that two firms will be Wilbur Ross's Distressed Real Estate/debt fund and a joint venture between GE Capital and private investor Angelo Gordon & Co. As many as seven other firms will likely participate. Other firms widely expect to be named include PIMCO and Blackrock.

Business Week:
- A European Central Bank report predicts that euro-zone banks could record as much as $398 billion in new writedowns by 2010.

Forbes:

- Bernie’s Gang: Who’s Next To Go Down? Bankruptcy trustee Irving Picard says some friends of Bernie got excessive phantom profits from Bernie's fund. There are many questions unanswered in the wake of the sentence to jail of Bernie Madoff for 150 years, an appropriate eternity for such a scoundrel. For justice to be properly served, we must find out and prosecute those persons who played a role, any role, in the destruction of ordinary people's lives and wherewithal.

Washington Post:

- If a new General Motors emerges from bankruptcy as planned, U.S. financial aid for the company will expand to nearly $50 billion, but neither the government nor the company is forecasting how much of the public money will be repaid. It's sure to be a stretch. For the United States to fully recover its investment, the value of General Motors stock will have to reach levels it has never before attained. "I don't know how much we're going to recover," a senior Obama administration official said as the company headed into bankruptcy last month. The stake will be worth enough to fully cover the government's direct investment only if GM's stock rises above $68 billion. Even at its recent 2000 peak, GM's stock was worth only $56 billion. "It's very unlikely" that the government will recover its money, said David Whiston, auto equities analyst at Morningstar. "GM will be a smaller company after the bankruptcy and there are going to be more foreign automakers entering the market that will make GM's efforts more difficult."

Cnet news:

- E-mails indicate EPA suppressed report skeptical of global warming.

Reuters:

- Ford Motor Co (F) said on Monday it expects to gain U.S. market share in June as its sales would hold up much better than the rest of the industry and signaled its increasing confidence by raising production. Ford said it would increase North American production in the third quarter by about 5.4 percent from a plan disclosed in early June amid signs that demand has begun to stabilize. That plan had set Ford's first year-over-year quarterly production increase in North American in two years. "The underlying economic indicators, meaning fewer jobless claims, another month of somewhat higher levels of consumer confidence, suggest to us that the worst is behind us in terms of not only the economy ... but also that we may have seen the low point of auto sales," Ford U.S. sales analyst George Pipas told reporters in a discussion at Ford headquarters.

- Growing confidence that the U.S. economy is putting the worst recession in decades behind it has pushed the index known as Wall Street's fear gauge to its lowest level since just before Lehman Brothers collapsed last September. The CBOE Volatility Index .VIX, known as the VIX, provides investors with portfolio insurance against fluctuations in the S&P 500 index .SPX. It soared to historic highs in the weeks after Lehman's rapid failure pushed financial markets to the brink and left an already crippled economy in tatters. But amid numerous signs the economy is on the edge of a recovery, coupled with the best quarter for stocks in more than 10 years, the VIX has begun to look like its old self again. "Investors see a lesser need for protection going forward; it looks like they don't see a revisit to the March lows," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers Group in Greenwich, Connecticut.

Electronic Times:

- LG Display may invest $1.6 billion in a new liquid-crystal-display production line. The world’s second-largest maker of LCDs said last week the company isn’t fully meeting customer orders for the screens because of higher-than-expected demand.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +1.50% on average.

Asia Ex-Japan Inv Grade CDS Index unch.
S&P 500 futures +.09%.
NASDAQ 100 futures +.10%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Pre-market Stock Quote/Chart
Global Commentary
WSJ Intl Markets Performance
Commodity Futures
Top 25 Stories
Top 20 Business Stories
Today in IBD
In Play
Bond Ticker
Economic Preview/Calendar
Earnings Calendar

Conference Calendar

Who’s Speaking?
Upgrades/Downgrades
Rasmussen Business/Economy Polling

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (SCHN)/.16

- (SNX)/.50

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

- The Chicago Purchasing Manager for June is estimated to rise to 39.0 versus 34.9 in May.

10:00 am EST

- Consumer Confidence for June is estimated to rise to 55.3 versus 54.9 in May.

Upcoming Splits
- None of note

Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed’s Bullard speaking, Fed’s Hoenig speaking, Fed’s Yellen speaking, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index, weekly retail sales reports, NAPM-Milwaukee, Goldman Sachs Data Center Conference, (TDG) analyst meeting, (BBBY) shareholders meeting and the (PBH) shareholders meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.