Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.75 +.5 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.63 +.03%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.24%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.58%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (AAWW)/.85
  • (ADP)/1.69
  • (CLX)/1.48
  • (CME)/1.60
  • (CVS)/1.51
  • (EL)/1.30
  • (HLT)/.76
  • (HUM)/4.30
  • (IDXX)/1.05
  • (JCI)/.30
  • (LLL)/2.47
  • (TAP)/.58
  • (BTU)/.56
  • (PBI)/.21 
  • (RCL)/1.11
  • (SGMS)/-.05
  • (SMG)/3.43
  • (SEE)/.56
  • (SO)/.72
  • (S)/-.01
  • (STRA)/1.43
  • (UTHR)/2.61
  • (YUM)/.82
After the Close:
  • (ALL)/2.32
  • (CAR)/-1.00
  • (BLUE)/-2.83
  • (CZR)/-.19
  • (CF)/.33
  • (CAKE)/.60
  • (CRUS)/.12
  • (ESV)/-1.30
  • (STAY)/.15
  • (HCP)/.43
  • (H)/.29
  • (KHC)/.61
  • (CLI)/.41
  • (MET)/1.27
  • (OI)/53
  • (PPC)/.34
  • (PRU)/3.15
  • (PSA)/2.52
  • (QCOM)/.71
  • (RGLD)/.44
  • (SQ)/.08
  • (WMB)/.22
  • (XPO)/.41
Economic Releases 
8:15 am EST
  • The ADP Employment Change for April is estimated to rise to 180K versus 129K in March.
10:00 am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 54.3 in March.
  • ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated to rise to 55.0 versus 54.3 in March.
  • Construction Spending MoM for March is estimated unch. versus a +1.0% gain in February.
2:00 pm EST
  • The FOMC is expected to leave the benchmark Fed Funds Rate at 2.25-2.5%.
Afternoon
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales are estimated to fall to 17.0M versus 17.5 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Economic Projections/Press Conference, weekly EIA energy inventory data and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Technical Buying, Utility/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.06 -.38%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.78 +.03%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 -.62%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.68 +1.7%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -29.0%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +18.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.12 -14.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.68 +.06%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 453.0 +.42%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.53 -.74%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 254.0 -4.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.30 +.20%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.56 +.03%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.04 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 11.25 +.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 16.25 -1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -1.75 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.62 +.17%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.
  • Yield Curve 23.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.50 USD/Metric Tonne +.49%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -58.70 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -31.10 +13.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.2 -6.9 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.95 -2.0 basis points
  • 23.3% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 31.6% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +132 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:
  • Small-Cap Growth -.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Gaming -2.6% 2) Oil Service -2.5% 3) Coal -2.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PETQ, AUDC, TREX, CGNX, LOGI, TXRH, GOOG, GHL, CRTO, TIGR, GLW, INST, MNK, MMYT, VIVO, MKSI, CVLT, DBD, THC, AOS, LEG, MGM, ZBRA, HQY, CHGG, INST and MCRN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AET 2) RSX 3) LL 4) MDLZ 5) MGM
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MNK 2) GHL 3) CGNX 4) TREX 5) LYFT
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:
  • Large-Cap Value +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +1.5% 2) Airlines +1.3% 3) Utilities +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • PI, WAGE, GAIA, GTHX, SANM, LOVE, SHOP, VRNS, SOHU, NXPI, GDI, MUSA, YUMA, ZYNE, FDP, IR, WWD, BRKS, CVX, ETH, PHG, LDOS, STX, FIS, IPGP, GE and LH
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) LQD 2) FTR 3) TAP 4) GOOG 5) GLW
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) WAGE 2) LH 3) PFE 4) GE 5) MLM
Charts:

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

Monday, April 29, 2019

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.0 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 41.25 unch.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.51 unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.08%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
  • (BP)/.12
  • (EAT)/1.20
  • (CRI)/.72
  • (COP)/.90
  • (GLW)/.40
  • (CMI)/3.55
  • (DBD)/-.35
  • (ETN)/1.25
  • (LLY)/1.33
  • (GE)/.09
  • (GM)/1.12
  • (HCA)/2.33
  • (IR)/.80
  • (MLM)/.26
  • (MA)/1.66
  • (MCD)/1.76
  • (MRK)/1.05
  • (OSK)/1.66
  • (PCAR)/1.65
  • (PFE)/.75
  • (PSX)/.35
  • (R)/.99
  • (STX)/.71
  • (WCG)/3.03
  • (WH)/.46
After the Close:
  • (AMD)/.06
  • (AKAM)/1.02
  • (AMED)/.89
  • (AMGN)/3.48
  • (AAPL)/2.36
  • (BXP)/1.66
  • (CHRW)/1.14
  • (CB)/2.56
  • (COHR)/1.47
  • (CYH)/-.45
  • (MXIM)/.52
  • (MDLZ)/.61
  • (NBR)/-.26
  • (OLN)/.32
  • (TDOC)/-.44
  • (TEX)/.61
  • (TWLO)/.01
  • (WYNN)/1.58
  • (ZEN)/.03
Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST
  • The Employment Cost Index for 1Q is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in 4Q.
9:00 am EST
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for February is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.11% gain in January.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for April is estimated to fall to 58.5 versus 58.7 in March.
10:00 am EST
  • Pending Home Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.5% versus a -1.0% decline in February. 
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April is estimated to rise to 126.7 versus 124.1 in March.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI report, Eurozone GDP report, Capitol Hill drug pricing/medicare-for-all hearings and the weekly US retail sales reports could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to strengthen into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Optimism, China Trade Deal Hopes, Oil Gain, Financial/Tech Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.0 +1.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 129.81 +.55%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.132 -.85%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.84 -1.3%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 110.0 +10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .85 +2.41%
  • NYSE Arms 1.29 +51.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.16 -.56%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 451.0 +.94%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.04 -4.33%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 258.25 -2.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.12 -1.55%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 191.22 -1.78%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 162.0 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 10.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.75+.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -18.5 -.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.51 -.01%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.41% unch.
  • Yield Curve 23.75 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 92.50 USD/Metric Tonne +1.03%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.10 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -44.40 -5.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.3 +1.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 -1.0 basis point
  • 19.7% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 29.7% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +197 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +30 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long