Thursday, April 11, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Healthcare/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.3 -.15%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.61 +.46%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.08 +.12%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.17 +1.89%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +43.42%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 +19.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.60 -4.19%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.07 -1.11%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 512.0 -.43%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.43 -3.07%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 237.75 -6.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.58 -1.29%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 179.55 +2.26%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 161.08 -.08%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 9.0 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 17.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 67.50 -.38%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.42% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 15.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 91.20 USD/Metric Tonne -1.65%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -57.10 +5.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.30 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.50 +1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.94 unch.
  • 10.9% chance of Fed rate cut at June 19th meeting, 14.1% chance of cut at July 31st meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +9 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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