Thursday, June 30, 2022

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 143.75 +7.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 85.25 +2.75 basis points.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.66 -.08%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,509.0 +310.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 29.3 +.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.41%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.05%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • None of note
After the Close:
  • None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 am EST
  • Construction Spending MoM for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to fall to 54.5 versus 56.1 in May.
  • ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 79.9 versus 82.2 in May.
Afternoon:
  • Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to rise to 13.3M versus 12.68M in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Manufacturing PMI report and the Eurozone PMI report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Lower on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Earnings Outlook Worries, Technical Selling, Commodity/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance:  Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume:  Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 28.7 +2.1%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.22% +46.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 4,315.0 -227.0 points
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.14 -.43%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.9 +.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 48.1 +.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 +12.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .90 -27.4%
  • NYSE Arms 2.2 +40.5%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 100.72 +.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 524.23 +5.5%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 465.0 +44.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 128.70 +.95%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 193.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 141.79 +4.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 338.70 +.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.31 -.17%
  • Ukraine Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 9,415.27 -.4%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 32.75 basis points -2.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 54.25 basis points +5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.5 basis points -1.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 -1.0 basis point
  • iShares CMBS ETF 48.19 +.63%
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.71 -.47%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.64% -8.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 4.5 basis points (2s/10s) +1.25 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 115.3 USD/Metric Tonne -5.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -71.6 -3.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.3 -8.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.5 +5.5 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for September 21st FOMC meeting: 68.5%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 2.75%-3.0%. Highest target rate probability for November 2nd meeting: 49.1%(+14.3 percentage points) chance of 3.0%-3.25%.
US Covid-19:
  • 214 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 13.0%(-1.0 percentage point) of 1/14 peak -22/100K people from prior report.
  • New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.3%(-.1 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/21 - 1/15/22
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -40 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +6 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my in my medical/tech/commodity sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure:  Moved to 25% Net Long

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -8.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 38.3% of Issues Advancing, 57.9% Declining
  • 8 New 52-Week Highs, 265 New Lows
  • 20.5% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 41.1% 
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 4,077.0 -464.0 points
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 15,112.0 -.39%
  • Vix 29.4 +4.4%
  • Total Put/Call .96 -22.6%
  • TRIN/Arms 1.85 +19.6%

Wednesday, June 29, 2022

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                 
Wall Street Journal:
Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax: 
TheGatewayPundit.com: 
 The Epoch Times:
 OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.75 +5.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 82.5 +.25 basis point.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.92 -.05%.  
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,704.0 +165.0 points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.1 -.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.14%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%. 
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (AYI)/2.91
  • (STZ)/2.51
  • (LNN)/1.60
  • (SMPL)/.25
  • (WBA)/.93
After the Close:
  • (MU)/2.45
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in April.
  • Real Personal Spending for May is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.7% gain in April.
  • The PCE Core MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 229K versus 229K the prior week. 
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1318K versus 1315K prior.
9:45 am EST
  • The MNI Chicago PMI for June is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 60.3 in May.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The China Services PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (MU) analyst call could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.