Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                 

• Shaky Housing Adds $7 Trillion Hazard to Australia’s Economy.
• Beer Made From Recycled Toilet Water Wins Admirers in Singapore.  
• Stocks in Asia, US Futures Dip on Inflation Angst: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Rally Reverses Amid Signs of Slowing Gasoline Demand.
• Disquiet Over the Housing Market Is Only Growing.
• Democrats Weigh Paring Biden Tax Hike to Win Over Manchin.
• Cities Stung by Great Resignation Hike Wages, Just as Recession Looms.
• Recession-Doubter Neil Dutta Turns Cautious on US Economy After Fed Signals.
  
• Luxury Furniture Seller RH Blames Interest Rates for Sales Slump.  
• Newsletter Startup Substack Cuts 14% of Staff as Downturn Looms.  
• Bull Market Never Ended for Analysts Wedded to 100% Price Rally Calls.  
• Pfizer and BioNTech to Get $3.2 Billion From US in Covid Vaccine Deal.
• LA Increases Loans for First-Time Homebuyers in One of Hottest Markets in US.  
• More Crypto ‘Meltdowns’ to Come Thanks to Fed Mistakes, Pantera’s Morehead Says.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Military to Expand in Europe to Counter Russia.
• CEO Stock Sales Raise Questions About Insider Trading.
• Bed Bath & Beyond CEO Exits as Sales Plunge.
• Powell Says Fed Must Accept Higher Recession Risk to Combat Inflation.
• Behind the Celsius Sales Pitch Was a Crypto Firm Built on Risk.
• U.S. Agrees to Pay $3.2 Billion for More Pfizer Covid Vaccines.

Fox News:

• Ben Carson defends Clarence Thomas, says liberals believe Black conservatives 'worse than Satan'.
• Poll reveals Georgia GOP facing uphill battle in two key races.
• Soaring violent crime in Dem-run city has businesses packing their bags.

CNBC.com:

• Stock futures are flat as S&P 500 tracks for worst first half of the year since 1970.
• Bitcoin briefly drops below $20,000 again as pressure continues to mount.
• Powell vows to prevent inflation from taking hold in the U.S. for the long run.
• RH shares slide after company lowers its outlook for the year. 
  

MarketWatch:           

• What’s next for the stock market after it has its worst 1st half since 1970? Here is the history.  
• Crypto exchange CoinFlex won’t lift withdrawal freeze yet, despite ‘significant progress’ in rescue token fundraising, CEO says.  
• Bitcoin could experience a ‘final washout’ decline before reaching a bottom of $13,000, this technical analyst says.  
• Why the S&P 500 may be in for a 1966-style bear market, according to DWS Group.  
• Court orders liquidation of crypto hedge fund Three Arrows.

Zero Hedge:

• Jan. 6 'Electronic Surveillance Unit' Was "Illegal", Says Rep. Gohmert; Attorney Suggests "Entrapment".
• White House Is Quietly Modeling For $200 Oil "Shock".
• "Bullsh*t": Claim Trump "Lunged" For Steering Wheel On Jan 6 Discredited By Secret Service.
• Biden Admin To Deploy 1.6 Million Doses Of Monkeypox Vaccines In "Enhanced" Strategy.
• India's Largest Cement Maker "Circumventing The Dollar" In Russian-Coal-For-Yuan Deal.
• The Influencer's Dilemma (Why Elon Musk Is Probably Right About Twitter).
• When Does The Recession Begin? Here Is What Wall Street Thinks.
• China's Productive Capacity Is Starting To Slip Away To India And Southeast Asia.
• Crisis Of Faith: Politicians & Press Escalate Attacks On Legitimacy Of Supreme Court.
• US stocks lacked direction and dollar strength persisted heading into month-end - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Emergency Oil Reserves Tumble To Record Low 27 Days Worth Of Supply.
• Americans Become More Pessimistic About The Future Of The Country.
• US Consumer Implodes As RH Cuts Guidance For 2nd Time This Month, Warns Of Cratering Demand.
• What Will It Take To End Rampant Home-Price Inflation?
• Transportation Secretary Warns: "There Are Going To Be Challenges" With Flights On Fourth Of July Weekend.
• Demand Destruction Emerges As Americans Cancel Road Trips.
• Stocks choppy into month-end while Bonds rally - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Bonds & The Dollar Bid As Recession Risks Rise, Black Gold & Breakevens Battered.

Newsmax: 

• Russians Fight to Encircle Ukraine's Last Eastern Stronghold.

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

• Get Woke, Go Broke: Bed Bath & Beyond Turns off AC in Stores to Save Money More Than a Year After Dropping MyPillow.
• MORE LIES: Cassidy Hutchinson ALSO Lied about Handwritten Note in Testimony — And Liz Cheney KNEW IT WAS A FALSE because the Actual Author of the Note Testified It Was His!
• 32-Year-Old Comedian Nick Nemeroff Suddenly Dies in His Sleep — Posted Earlier About Suffering Side Effects of COVID Vaccine (VIDEO).
• Biden Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy CHEERS the News that “Fossil Fuels Are Losing Jobs” As Gas Floats near $5 a Gallon.
• Biden Train Wreck: AP Poll: 85 Percent of Americans Say Nation Is on the Wrong Track, Including 78 Percent of Democrats.
• Biden Climate Envoy John Kerry Amid Supply Chain Crisis: “We Need to Spur the Transition to Green Shipping” (VIDEO).
• Shocking Footage From Disney Reveals Upcoming Transgender Character Saying ‘Men Have Periods Too’ (Video).

 The Epoch Times:

• China’s War Machine Is Betting the Future on Drones.
• Over 100 Georgia Sheriffs Condemn Democratic Gubernatorial Challenger Over ‘Defund the Police’.

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 835,062 Reports(+3,252 from prior week) Through June 17th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.75 +5.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 82.5 +.25 basis point.
  

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 50.92 -.05%.  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 4,704.0 +165.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 28.1 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.14%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%. 

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AYI)/2.91
• (STZ)/2.51
• (LNN)/1.60
• (SMPL)/.25
• (WBA)/.93
  

After the Close:

• (MU)/2.45

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in April.
• Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.9% gain in April.
• Real Personal Spending for May is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.7% gain in April.
• The PCE Core MoM for May is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated at 229K versus 229K the prior week. 
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1318K versus 1315K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for June is estimated to fall to 58.0 versus 60.3 in May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Services PMI report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (MU) analyst call could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.